{
  "id": "419235",
  "title": "Technology, fragmentation and the new uncertainty",
  "source": "European Central Bank",
  "source_url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2026/html/ecb.sp260305~b091c4a651.en.html",
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  "date_published": "2026-03-05",
  "date_retrieved": "2026-03-17",
  "speaker": "Christine Lagarde",
  "speaker_title": "President of the European Central Bank",
  "event": "2026 Annual Global Risk Lecture (in honour of Robert Mundell)",
  "event_location": "Bologna, Italy",
  "event_organizer": "Johns Hopkins University",
  "parent_publication": "ECB Speeches & Key Documents",
  "category": "mny (monetary policy)",
  "indicators_covered": [
    "Interest Rate",
    "Artificial Intelligence",
    "Geopolitical Risk",
    "Trade Fragmentation",
    "Monetary Policy"
  ],
  "key_findings": [
    "ECB shifting from risk measurement to scenario analysis for policy guidance under uncertainty",
    "AI could boost productivity by 1.5 percentage points annually; severe fragmentation could reduce GDP by 7% over a decade",
    "AI's dependence on global supply chains makes geopolitical fragmentation systemically costly",
    "Three-layer cooperation framework: multilateral reform, allied deepening, rival engagement"
  ],
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  "character_count": 22079,
  "sections": 8,
  "headings": [
    "Introduction",
    "From Risk to Uncertainty",
    "Navigating Uncertainty",
    "Why AI Cannot Be Separated from the Global Economy",
    "The Case for Layered Cooperation",
    "Conclusion",
    "Key Themes",
    "Footnotes & References"
  ],
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