Press release
On 24 April 2026, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to cut the key rate by 50 basis points to 14.50% per annum.
Domestic demand dynamics have roughly corresponded to the economy's capacity to ramp up supply of goods and services. However, measures of underlying price growth have not yet decreased and remain in the range of 4–5% in annualised terms, as estimated by the Bank of Russia. There is still significant uncertainty regarding the external environment and fiscal policy parameters.
The Bank of Russia will assess the need for further key rate cuts at its upcoming meetings depending on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown, the dynamics of inflation expectations, and the analysis of risks posed by external and domestic conditions.
The baseline scenario assumes an average key rate in the range of 14.0–14.5% per annum in 2026 and 8.0–10.0% per annum in 2027.
According to the Bank of Russia's forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to 4.5–5.5% in 2026. Underlying inflation will be close to 4% in 2026 H2. In 2026 Q1, the current seasonally adjusted price growth averaged 8.7% in annualised terms compared to 4.4% in 2025 Q4. The similar indicator of core inflation averaged 6.3% after 5.0% in the previous quarter. Such dynamics were caused by one-off factors (primarily the VAT increase and the indexation of administered prices and tariffs). Excluding these factors, underlying price growth has not changed and is generally assessed at 4–5% in annualised terms.