April 2026 November 2020 April 2026 Business Covering Leaders Coveringservice Survey Business Leaders Survey servicefirms firmsininNewNewYork, York,northern northernNew NewJersey, Jersey,and andsouthwestern southwesternConnecticut Connecticut Covering Note: Surveyservice responsesfirms in Newbetween were collected York,April northern New9.Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut 2 and April ■ Business activity continued to decline E C O N O M I S T C O M M E N TA RY in the region’s service sector in April, though the pace of contraction eased “Business activity continued to contract in the somewhat, according to firms responding New York-Northern New Jersey region’s service sector to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s in April, though more slowly than in recent months. Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s Firms reported worsening supply availability, a sharp increase headline business activity index rose in input prices, and less optimism about the outlook.” nine points to -14.0. The business climate ~Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed index ticked down three points to -49.3, suggesting the business climate remained much worse than normal. Employment edged slightly lower and supply availability while 38 percent said that conditions four points to 32.7, indicating a modest worsened significantly. The pace of input worsened. The business climate index pickup in the pace of selling price 10APR2026 09:30:09 price increases accelerated sharply, while fell three points to -49.3, with 59 percent increases. At -20.0, the supply availability selling price increases picked up modestly. of respondents reporting an unfavorable index was down seven points from a 10APR2026 09:30:09 Looking ahead, firms expect little business climate. month ago, suggesting supply availability improvement in the next six months. worsened significantly. Input Price Increases Pick Up Number of Observations Conditions Remain Weak = 207 The employment index came in at -2.4, Optimism Wanes Number of Observations = Business activity continued to fall in the New York-Northern New Jersey region, its eighth consecutive negative reading, suggesting employment continued to 207 The index for future business activity fell ten points to 2.9, a sign that firms expect according to the April survey, though shrink, though only slightly this month. little change in activity over the next six the decline was less pronounced than in The wages index rose eight points to months. Employment is expected to grow recent months. The headline business 37.0, pointing to a pickup in wage only slightly. Firms’ expectations for activity index rose nine points but increases. The prices paid index jumped future price increases remained elevated, remained below zero at -14.0. Twenty- eleven points to 73.8, signaling a sharp and supply availability is expected to four percent of respondents reported acceleration in input price increases, worsen considerably. Firms planned only that conditions Business improved over the month Activity while the prices received index rose modest increases in capital spending. ■ Diffusion Business Index Activity 60 Diffusion Index 40 60 20 40 0 20 -20 0 -40 -20 -60 -40 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | -80 -60 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 -80 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Note: The shaded 2006 areas indicate 2007 2008 periods 2009 2010 designated 2011 2012 as recessions 2013 2014 by the National 2015 Bureau2018 2016 2017 of Economic Research. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Note: The shaded areas indicate periods designated as recessions by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Federal Reserve Bank of New York November Business 2020 Leaders Survey Current Indicators Business Leaders Survey Change from Preceding Month Covering service firms in New York, northern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut Business Activity Percent Reporting 60 Higher Lower Index ■ 40 Mar 19.1 41.7 -22.6 20 0 Apr 23.7 37.7 -14.0 -20 Change 8.6 | | | | | | -40 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Business Climate Percent Reporting 20 Favora Favorable Unfavo Unfavorable Index 0 Mar 10.1 56.3 -46.2 -20 -40 Apr 10.1 59.4 -49.3 -60 Change -3.1 | | | | | | -80 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Number of Employees Percent Reporting 45 Higher Lower Index 30 Mar 14.1 22.6 -8.5 15 0 Apr 18.9 21.4 -2.4 -15 Change 6.1 | | | | | | -30 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Wages Percent Reporting 80 Higher Lower Index 60 Mar 32.0 3.0 29.0 40 20 Apr 39.0 2.0 37.0 0 Change 8.0 | | | | | | -20 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Note: The current wages index is seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of New York April 2026 2 November Business 2020 Leaders Survey Current Indicators, continued Business Leaders Survey Change from Preceding Month Covering service firms in New York, northern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut Prices Paid Percent Reporting 100 Higher Lower Index ■ 75 Mar 64.5 2.0 62.5 50 Apr 74.8 1.0 73.8 25 Change 11.3 | | | | | | 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Prices Received Percent Reporting 60 Higher Lower Index 40 Mar 36.9 8.1 28.8 20 Apr 37.1 4.5 32.7 0 Change 3.9 | | | | | | -20 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Capital Spending Percent Reporting 30 Higher Lower Index 15 Mar 18.7 21.2 -2.5 0 Apr 22.9 20.0 2.9 -15 Change 5.4 | | | | | | -30 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Supply Availability Percent Reporting 20 Higher Lower Index 0 Mar 6.0 18.6 -12.6 -20 Apr 6.3 26.3 -20.0 -40 Change -7.4 | | | | | | -60 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Note: The current supply availability index was added to the report in June 2024 and included a history of data points going back to 2021. Federal Reserve Bank of New York April 2026 3 Business Leaders Survey Forward-Looking Indicators Expectations Six Months Ahead Business Activity Percent Reporting 75 Higher Lower Index 50 Mar 38.6 25.9 12.7 25 0 Apr 33.8 30.9 2.9 -25 Change -9.8 | | | | | | -50 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Business Climate Percent Reporting 75 Better Worse Index 50 Mar 26.8 37.4 -10.6 25 0 Apr 23.7 44.9 -21.3 -25 Change -10.7 | | | | | | -50 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Number of Employees Percent Reporting 75 Higher Lower Index 50 Mar 28.7 13.8 14.9 25 Apr 27.6 18.2 9.4 0 Change -5.5 | | | | | | -25 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Wages Percent Reporting 75 Higher Lower Index 50 Mar 48.4 2.6 45.8 25 Apr 44.1 4.4 39.7 0 Change -6.1 | | | | | | -25 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Note: The future wages index is seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of New York April 2026 4 Business Leaders Survey Forward-Looking Indicators, continued Expectations Six Months Ahead Prices Paid Percent Reporting 100 Higher Lower Index 75 Mar 67.2 1.5 65.6 50 Apr 70.9 3.4 67.5 25 Change 1.9 | | | | | | 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Prices Received Percent Reporting 60 Higher Lower Index 40 Mar 39.2 4.6 34.5 20 Apr 43.0 7.5 35.5 0 Change 1.0 | | | | | | -20 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Capital Spending Percent Reporting 50 Higher Lower Index 25 Mar 29.9 20.1 9.8 0 Apr 24.8 21.8 3.0 -25 Change -6.8 | | | | | | -50 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Supply Availability Percent Reporting 20 Higher Lower Index 0 The Business Leaders Survey began asking about expected Mar 9.0 23.1 -14.1 -20 supply availability in May 2024. Apr 8.8 29.3 -20.5 -40 Change -6.4 | | | | | | -60 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Note: The expected supply availability index was added to the report in June 2024 and included one additional data point from May 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of New York April 2026 5