March 2026 March March 2026 2026 November 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Empire State Empire State Manufacturing Manufacturing Survey Survey Note: Survey responses were collected between March 2 and March 9. Business activity was little changed in New York State in March, according to firms responding to the Empire State ­Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to -0.2. New orders increased modestly, while shipments declined. Unfilled orders rose, delivery times lengthened, and supply availability was slightly worse. Inventories increased. Employment rose modestly and the average workweek edged up. The pace of input price increases declined ­significantly, but remained elevated, while the pace of selling price increases was little changed. Firms remained ­optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead, and capital spending plans ­strengthened. E C O N O M I S T C O M M E N TA RY “Manufacturing activity held steady in New York State in March. Delivery times lengthened and supply availability worsened slightly. Firms remained optimistic about the outlook.” ~Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed 10MAR2026 09:30:09 Number of Observations = 102 10MAR2026 09:30:09 10MAR2026 09:30:09 Number of Observations = 102 Activity Remains Relatively Unchanged in orders, while the shipments index fell six points to -6.9, indicating that ­shipments declined. The unfilled orders index rose two points to 10.8. The delivery times index rose ten points to 13.7, indicating that delivery times lengthened. Inventories moved higher. The supply availability index dipped three points to -3.9, suggesting that supply availability was slightly worse than last month. Number of Observations = Input Price Increases Slow Manufacturing activity held steady in New York State, according to the March survey. The general business conditions index fell seven points to -0.2, with just over 30 percent of Business firms reporting an increase in General Conditions activity andAdjusted the same percentage reporting Seasonally a decrease. The new orders index was little Diffusion changed Index at 6.4, pointing to a small increase The index for number of employees rose two points to 5.8 and the average workweek index was little changed at 1.9, suggesting a modest increase in employment levels and a slight increase in hours worked. The 60 prices paid index fell thirteen points to 36.6, and the prices received index was little changed at 21.4, indicating that input price increases moderated while selling price increases held steady. Firms Remain Optimistic The index for future business conditions came in at 31.0, suggesting that firms ­continued to be optimistic about the outlook. New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and employment is expected to grow in the months ahead. The capital expenditures index rose three points to 21.6, a multi-year high, indicating that capital spending plans strengthened. ■ 102 General Business Conditions General Business Seasonally Adjusted 40 General Business Conditions Conditions Seasonally Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted 20 Diffusion Index Diffusion Index Diffusion Index 60 0 60 60 40 -20 40 40 20 -40 20 20 0 -60 0 0 -20 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | -80 -20 -202006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -40 -40 The shaded areas indicate periods designated as recessions by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Note: -40 -60 -60 -60 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | -80 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -802006 Reserve | | | | | | | | Federal | | |Bank |of New | York | | | -802006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Note: The shaded areas indicate periods designated as recessions by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Note: The shaded areas indicate periods designated as recessions by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Note: The shaded areas indicate periods designated as recessions by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Federal Reserve Bank of New York Federal FederalReserve ReserveBank BankofofNew NewYork York | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 | | | | | | 2022 | 2022 2022 | 2023 | 2023 2023 | 2024 | 2024 2024 | 2025 | 2025 2025 | 2026 | 2026 2026 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Current Indicators Change from Preceding Month General Business Conditions 60 30 0 -30 -60 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change New Orders 50 25 0 -25 -50 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Shipments 50 25 0 -25 -50 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Unfilled Orders 30 15 0 -15 -30 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Delivery Time 45 30 15 0 -15 -30 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Inventories 30 15 0 -15 -30 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York Feb Mar Change March 2026 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 36.0 28.9 31.5 31.7 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 34.7 28.9 34.2 27.8 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 27.1 28.2 24.5 31.4 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 20.2 11.1 20.6 9.8 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 17.2 13.1 17.6 3.9 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 23.2 16.2 25.5 18.6 Index 7.1 -0.2 -7.3 Index 5.8 6.4 0.6 Index -1.0 -6.9 -5.9 Index 9.1 10.8 1.7 Index 4.0 13.7 9.7 Index 7.1 6.9 -0.2 2 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Current Indicators, continued Change from Preceding Month Prices Paid 100 75 50 25 0 -25 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Prices Received 60 40 20 0 -20 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Number of Employees 45 30 15 0 -15 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Average Employee Workweek 30 15 0 -15 -30 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Supply Availability 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Percent Reporting Higher Lower 50.3 1.2 40.0 3.4 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 28.3 6.1 24.3 2.9 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 15.8 11.8 13.2 7.4 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 13.0 10.9 13.4 11.5 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 4.0 5.1 5.9 9.8 Index 49.1 36.6 -12.5 Index 22.2 21.4 -0.8 Index 4.0 5.8 1.8 Index 2.1 1.9 -0.2 Index -1.0 -3.9 -2.9 Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. The current supply availability index was added to the report in June 2024 and included a history of data points going back to 2021. Federal Reserve Bank of New York March 2026 3 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Forward-Looking Indicators Expectations Six Months Ahead General Business Conditions 60 40 20 0 -20 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change New Orders 60 40 20 0 -20 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Shipments 60 40 20 0 -20 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Unfilled Orders 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Delivery Time 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Inventories 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York Feb Mar Change March 2026 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 43.1 8.4 47.4 16.4 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 48.3 13.3 47.7 18.6 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 44.5 11.2 46.2 16.0 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 24.2 6.1 22.5 7.8 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 16.2 7.1 16.7 4.9 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 26.3 18.2 24.5 18.6 Index 34.7 31.0 -3.7 Index 34.9 29.1 -5.8 Index 33.4 30.2 -3.2 Index 18.2 14.7 -3.5 Index 9.1 11.8 2.7 Index 8.1 5.9 -2.2 4 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Forward-Looking Indicators, continued Expectations Six Months Ahead Prices Paid 80 60 40 20 0 -20 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Prices Received 80 60 40 20 0 -20 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Number of Employees 45 30 15 0 -15 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Average Employee Workweek 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Capital Expenditures 45 30 15 0 -15 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Supply Availability 30 15 The Empire survey began asking about expected supply availability in May 2024. 0 -15 -30 | 2021 | | | | | 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Feb Mar Change Percent Reporting Higher Lower 58.6 1.0 47.1 3.9 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 42.4 2.1 32.4 0.0 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 30.6 4.4 32.9 10.7 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 22.2 7.1 16.7 5.9 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 30.3 12.1 33.3 11.8 Percent Reporting Higher Lower 8.1 6.1 3.9 5.9 Index 57.6 43.1 -14.5 Index 40.3 32.4 -7.9 Index 26.1 22.2 -3.9 Index 15.2 10.8 -4.4 Index 18.2 21.6 3.4 Index 2.0 -2.0 -4.0 Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. The expected supply availability index was added to the report in June 2024 and included one additional data point from May 2024. The technology spending index was discontinued at this time. Federal Reserve Bank of New York March 2026 5