GDP monthly estimate, UK: February 2026

In the three months to February 2026, compared with the three months to November 2025:

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.5%, following a growth of 0.3% in the three months to January 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.2% in our previous publication), and no growth in the three months to December 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication).

• Services output grew by 0.5%, after showing a growth of 0.3% in the three months to January 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.2%).

• Production output grew by 1.2%; this follows a growth of 1.7% in the three months to January 2026 (revised up from a growth of 1.3% in our previous publication).

• Construction output fell by 2.0%, following falls of 2.8% in the three months to both January 2026 and December 2025 (these falls were revised down from falls of 2.0% and 2.1% respectively, in our previous publication).

In the month to February 2026:

• Monthly GDP grew by 0.5% in February 2026, following a growth of 0.1% in January 2026 (revised up from showing no growth in our previous publication) and 0.1% in December 2025.

• Services and production both grew by 0.5%, and construction grew by 1.0% in February 2026.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in the three months to February 2026, compared with the three months to November 2025. This follows a growth of 0.3% in the three months to January 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.2% in our previous publication), and no growth in the three months to December 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication).

The largest contribution to the three-month on three-month growth came from an increase of 0.5% in services output. Production output grew by 1.2% in the three months to February 2026, while construction output fell by 2.0%.

In this release, all industries are open for revision from January 2024. Our revision policy for National Accounts has been updated to ensure we reflect the dynamic nature of the UK economy. Details regarding the causes of revisions are discussed in Section 6: Revisions to GDP.

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (both positive and negative) as more data becomes available and we subsequently update for that additional information. Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information on revisions.  Note these data cover the period before the beginning of the conflict in Iran on Saturday 28 February.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in February 2026, following a growth of 0.1% in January 2026 (revised up from no growth in our previous publication), and a growth of 0.1% in December 2025. Services output grew by 0.5%, production grew by 0.5%, and construction grew by 1.0% in February 2026.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in the three months to February 2026, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period services grew by 1.1%, production grew by 0.3%, and construction fell by 1.8%.

Compared with the same month a year ago, GDP is estimated to be 1.0% higher in February 2026.

Other indicators also report strength in the month of February. For example, our 19 March 2026 Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators publication reported that "Business and workforce indicators were generally more positive than the previous month. More firms reported a month-on-month increase in turnover and the number of potential redundancies fell."

Services output grew by 0.5% in the three months to February 2026, compared with the three months to November 2025. Services was the main contributor to the growth seen in gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months to February. This is following a rise of 0.3% in the three months to January 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.2% in our previous publication).

Figure 3: Services output grew by 0.5% in the three months to February 2026, after increasing by 0.3% in the three months to January 2026.

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the services sector, UK, January 2023 to February 2026

There was a rise in output in 10 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to February 2026 with the largest positive contributions at the subsector level coming from:

• wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.4%), driven by a growth of 3.1% in wholesale trade, except motor vehicles and motorcycles

• information and communication (up 1.6%), driven by increases in publishing activities (up 9.1%), and computer programming, consultancy, and related activities (up 1.4%)

• transportation and storage (up 1.9%), driven by increases in warehousing and support activities for transportation (up 2.4%), and land transport services and transport services via pipelines, excluding rail transport (up 2.1%)

The largest negative contributions at the subsector level came from:

• administrative and support service activities (down 0.8%), driven by falls in rental and leasing activities (down 4.0%), and employment activities (down 3.1%)

• arts, entertainment, and recreation (down 1.4%), because of a fall of 2.4% in sports activities, and amusement and recreation activities

• real estate activities (down 0.1%), driven by falls in real estate activities on a fee or contract basis (down 5.9%), and buying and selling, renting, and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent (down 0.2%)

Services output grew by 0.5% in February 2026. This follows a growth of 0.1% in January 2026 (revised up from showing no growth in our previous publication) and is now the fourth consecutive month that services output has increased. In February, there was widespread growth across services output with 12 of the 14 subsectors showing growth.

The largest positive contribution to services sector output in February 2026 came from administrative and support service activities (up 2.0%), where there was widespread growth. An increase of 2.5% in employment activities was the largest positive contributor to the subsector after falling by 6.6% in January 2026 (revised down from a fall of 5.7% in our previous publication) (Figure 5). 

The second largest positive contribution came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.7%), which was driven by wholesale trade, except motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.7%), which was the largest positive contribution from a single industry to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in February 2026, contributing 0.07 percentage points to GDP (Figure 6).

Professional, scientific, and technical activities also contributed to the growth, with a rise of 0.8% in February 2026. The largest contributor to this subsector was accounting, bookkeeping, and auditing activities; tax consultancy which grew by 3.7% on the month.

These increases were partially offset by a fall of 0.3% in accommodation and food service activities.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output grew by 0.4% in the three months to February 2026, compared with the three months to November 2025.

The largest positive contributions in this period came from:

• food and beverage service activities (up 2.6%)

• retail trade, except motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.9%)

• other personal service activities (up 2.4%)

The largest negative contributions in this period came from:

• wholesale and retail trade, and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 1.8%)

• sports activities, and amusement and recreation activities (down 2.4%)

• accommodation (down 1.4%)

Output in consumer-facing services was flat in February 2026, following a growth of 0.4% in January 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication). The largest positive contributions at the industry level came from wholesale and retail trade, and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 2.0%), and travel agency, tour operator, and other reservation services and related activities (up 4.8%). The largest negative contribution came from other personal service activities which fell by 2.1%, following a growth of 2.1% in January 2026.

More information on Consumer-Facing Services data is available in our Consumer-Facing Services February 2026 dataset.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 88.5% in February 2026, which is broadly as expected at this point in the data reporting cycle. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2023, 2024, and 2025 now stands at 97.5%, 97.6%, and 97.3%, respectively. 

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in the Index of Services, UK: February 2026 release.

In the three months to February 2026, compared with the three months to November 2025, production output is estimated to have grown by 1.2%, following a growth of 1.7% in the three months to January 2026 (revised up from a growth of 1.3% in our previous publication).

Figure 8: Production output grew by 0.5% in the month of February 2026 and grew by 1.2% in the three months to February, the third consecutive three-month on three-month growth

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for index of production, UK, January 2023 to February 2026

The growth in production output in the three months to February 2026 was mainly caused by a growth of 1.2% in manufacturing, and a growth of 3.6% in electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply. Water supply; sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities grew by 0.1% in the three months to February 2026. This growth was partially offset by a fall of 2.1% in mining and quarrying in the three months to February 2026.

Figure 9: Production sectors monthly indices and three-monthly growth rates

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the production sectors, January 2023 to February 2026, UK

Notes:

1. Indices are rounded to one decimal place. 
2. Weights of these sub-sectors are available in the GDP(O) data sources catalogue.

On the month, production output is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in February 2026, following a fall of 0.1% in January 2026, and a fall of 0.4% in December 2025 (revised up from a fall of 0.9% in our previous publication). This was mainly driven by growth in mining and quarrying (up 3.9%), and electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply (up 1.5%). Water supply; sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities also grew in February 2026 (up 0.2%). This growth was partially offset by a fall of 0.1% in manufacturing.

Manufacturing output

Manufacturing output grew by 1.2% in the three months to February 2026, compared with the three months to November 2025, with 5 of the 13 subsectors increasing over this period. The largest positive contributors to this growth over the three months were:

• manufacture of transport equipment (up 8.9%), driven by a 18.8% growth in manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers; this is a base effect because of the comparison to the three months to November, which includes the main effects of a cyber incident at a major car manufacturer at the end of August

• manufacture of basic metals and metal products (up 2.3%)

• other manufacturing and repair (up 2.5%)

• manufacturing of computer, electronic, and optical products (up 2.6%)

These increases were partially offset by falls elsewhere, with the largest negative contributions coming from:

• manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (down 2.7%)

• manufacture of food products, beverages, and tobacco (down 0.7%)

• manufacture of electrical equipment (down 3.7%)

Figure 10 shows both the three-month and monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing sub-sectors.

Manufacturing output fell by 0.1% in February 2026, with 6 of the 13 subsectors falling. This follows a growth of 0.2% in January 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication) and an unrevised fall of 0.5% in December 2025.

The largest negative contribution came from a fall of 2.1% in the manufacture of transport equipment. The next largest negative contributions came from the manufacture of basic metals and metal products (down 2.1%), and manufacture of food products, beverages, and tobacco (down 1.2%). These falls were partially offset by growth in the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified (up 3.9%), the manufacture of electrical equipment (up 6.3%), and manufacturing of computer, electronic, and optical products (up 1.6%).

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 90.4% in February 2026, which is broadly in line with expected response rates. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2023, 2024, and 2025 now stand at 97.7%, 97.8%, and 97.5%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in the Index of Production, UK: February 2026 release.

Construction output is estimated to have decreased by 2.0% in the three months to February 2026 compared with the three months to November 2025. New work fell by 3.4%, whereas repair and maintenance showed no growth (0.0%) over the period. 

Within new work, the largest negative contribution came from private housing new work, which fell by 6.5%. In repair and maintenance, the largest negative contributor was non-housing repair and maintenance which fell by 1.9%; the largest positive contributor was private housing repair and maintenance which grew by 2.0%. 

Figure 11: Construction output fell by 2.0% in the three months to February 2026, compared with the three months to November 2025

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the construction sector, January 2023 to February 2026, Great Britain

Monthly construction output is estimated to have increased by 1.0% in February 2026. This follows an upwardly revised increase of 0.5% in January 2026, and a downwardly revised decrease of 1.3% in December 2025. 

The increase in monthly output in February 2026 came from increases in both new work and repair and maintenance, which grew by 1.0% and 0.9%, respectively. At the sector level, the main contributor to the monthly increase was private housing new work which grew by 4.3%.

Figure 12: Both new work and repair and maintenance increased in February 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates of the construction subsectors, January 2023 to February 2026, Great Britain

Figure 13 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors. 

Construction data are sourced from our monthly business survey. For February 2026, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 85.6%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received, and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 95.4% and 95.8%, respectively, while the average response rate 2025 is 96.6%. 

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: February 2026.

This release gives data for February 2026 for the first time. We have been open to revisions since January 2024. This includes the revisions published at the Q4 Quarterly National Accounts, as well as further revisions because of improved seasonal adjustment and data sources. These further revisions have revised top-level quarterly GDP growth for Q3 and Q4 2025 from 0.1% to 0.0% in each quarter; these data are not yet present in our Quarterly National Accounts or First Quarterly Estimate publications.

Table 1 shows the monthly revisions back to January 2025, with the monthly and three-month revisions back to January 2024 available in our Revision Triangles dataset.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our monthly GDP and main sectors to four decimal places dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Index of Services, UK: February 2026

• Index of Production, UK: February 2026

• Construction output in Great Britain: February 2026

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found at:

• Index of Services response rates

• Index of Production response rates

• Construction response rates

The Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income, and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• wholesale and retail trade, and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• retail trade, except motor vehicles and motorcycles

• rail transport

• accommodation

• food and beverage service activities

• buying and selling, renting, and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• veterinary activities

• travel agency, tour operator, and other reservation services and related activities

• gambling and betting services

• sports activities, and amusement and recreation activities

• activities of membership organisations

• other personal service activities

• activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industry's output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual Blue Book process, where both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same as the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates.

This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2023 and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in Table 2.

When the annual data for 2024 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

Strengths and limitations

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using just raw data because seasonal effects can dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level, and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output.

Based on our quality assurance as part of this publication, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate estimates for monthly GDP, Index of Services, Index of Production, Construction or Manufacturing, in the period from January 1997 to February 2026.

This topic is explored further in ourAssessing residual seasonality in published outputs article updated on 30 September 2025.

From the next release which will be published on 14 May 2026, we will be publishing non-seasonally adjusted chained volume measure series in addition to our current datasets.