March 2026 MONETARY CONDITIONS AND MONETARY TRANSMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYTICAL COMMENTARY Average RUONIA value • In February–March, monetary indicators March generally moved towards easing, remaining 14.99% tight. ▼ -34 bp • In March, the average RUONIA decreased following the change in the key rate. The spread between RUONIA and the key rate Government bond yields was negative. March (RGBI) 14.31% • Average monthly nominal yields in some financial market segments decreased in ▼ -30 bp on February average March. Given that inflation expectations among households and businesses remained elevated, real rates were down Corporate bond yields on average. March (IFX-Cbonds) • Interest rates on corporate loans and 15.72 % household deposits decreased in February. The key rate reduction, as well as further ▼ -18 bp on February average expectations of monetary policy easing, translated into banks’ lower deposit rates. Interest rate on long-term In the lending segment, the dynamics of February loans to non-financial both corporate and retail rates were linked organisations to a change in the number of transactions on non-market terms. 14.6% ▼ -1.0 pp on January • Claims on the economy increased in February with the resumption of corporate lending growth. The main increase in Interest rate on short-term outstanding amounts was due to ruble- February (preliminary) household deposits denominated long-term transactions of non-financial organisations. Retail lending 14.4% expansion halted because of declining demand in the mortgage segment and a ▼ -0.4 pp on January reduction in outstanding non-mortgage loans. Money supply (M2X) March (preliminary) • Fiscal operations supported money supply 12.5 % YoY AFCR growth in March. As a result, annual money supply growth rates were close to ▲ 12.4% YoY AFCR in February February levels. Demand dynamics on the economy were moderate in March. Sources: Bank of Russia, Moscow Exchange. Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission MONETARY TRANSMISSION The monetary policy transmission mechanism (or monetary policy transmission) is a sequence of links in the economy through which monetary policy influences demand and, accordingly, inflation. This mechanism is based on interest rates and yields in the key market segments, influencing each other. The key rate has a direct effect on short-term money market rates. Expectations of further changes in short-term rates, together with demand for loans and supply of savings, impact long-term rates and yields on federal government bonds (OFZ). Rates, in turn, influence the propensity to save, consume, and invest (the interest rate channel of the transmission mechanism), the ability of borrowers to provide high-quality collateral and that of banks – to expand lending (the credit and balance sheet channels), as well as the wealth of investors (the welfare channel), and the ruble exchange rate (the foreign exchange channel). Through any of these channels, higher market rates constrain demand and inflation, while lower ones stimulate them. In addition to monetary policy and demand, inflation and financial market trends are influenced by many other factors that are taken into account by the Bank of Russia when deciding on the key rate. This material briefly describes monetary policy transmission and the conditions of its functioning. 2 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission INDIVIDUAL INDICATORS OF MONETARY POLICY TIGHTNESS AND THEIR CHANGES........................................................................................................ Chart 1 February vs January March vs February Easing Tightening Easing Tightening Interest rates OFZ yields and curves Key rate 15.78% 15.32% ROISfix 3M 15.34% 14.73% ROISfix 1Y 14.64% 14.39% 2Y OFZ 14.71% 14.11% 5Y OFZ 14.89% 14.59% 10Y OFZ 14.49% 14.34% Banks’ interest rates on ruble loans and deposits FRG100 index 11.34% 11.09% Short-term household deposits 14.36% Long-term household deposits 11.03% Mortgages (existing housing) 20.37% 19.99% Mortgages secured by shared construction 6.83% agreements (SCA) Mortgages not secured by SCA 12.95% Credit spreads Spread between CORP and OFZ yields 143 bp 196 bp Mortgages not secured by SCA and 5Y OFZ -194 bp Inflation expectations Households, all respondents* 13.15% 13.39% Households, with savings* 11.50% 12.30% Companies’ price expectations (economy, overall)* 19.96% 20.23% Breakeven inflation for OFZ-IN** 5.96% 5.88% Analysts’ forecast for next year, survey by Interfax* 3.90% 3.90% Affordability of lending Tightness of bank lending conditions (BLC) for long- 30 bp term corporate loans Tightness of BLC for long-term household loans 18 bp Growth rates of credit and deposit aggregates, YoY Other claims on households* 15.10% Mortgages* 9.74% Other claims on households* -1.66% Claims on organisations* 11.50% Growth rates of monetary aggregates, YoY Broad money (M2X)* 12.36% 12.50% Money supply (M2)* 11.37% 11.90% Average z-score 0.52 0.23 For reference: Money market and overnight rates Spread between RUONIA and key rate -43 bp -36 bp Volatility of spread between RUONIA and key rate 24 bp 25 bp Other financial indicators RUB REER (base – December 2013) 93.58 89.76 Real yields on OFZ-IN until 2028* 9.41% 9.52% -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Note. The indicator panel represents one possible summary visualisation of key indicators to help assess monetary conditions and their changes. It should not be considered a comprehensive presentation of all types of indicators relevant to assessing the nature of and changes in monetary conditions. The chart shows the level of the indicator (z-score) relative to the distribution of values from January 2017 to February 2026 (left-hand chart) and to March 2026 (right- hand chart). The round marker denotes an indicator’s level (in standard deviations) as of the previous date. A shift of the indicator to the left relative to the previous date indicates an easing of monetary conditions, a shift to the right – their tightening. The z-scores for high-frequency indicators (OFZ yields, money market rates, the exchange rate, the spread between CORP and OFZ yields, etc.) were calculated based on the averages for the relevant month. The z-score for the spread between RUONIA and the key rate was taken out of the calculation of the overall average indicator due to high volatility. * The indicators were used to calculate the inverse z-score. ** The average for the issues maturing in 2028, 2030, and 2032. The distribution of values since October 2021. Source: Bank of Russia calculations. 3 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission 63х170 HISTORICAL DYNAMICS OF INDIVIDUAL INDICATORS OF MONETARY TIGHTNESS.............................................................................................................................................. Chart 2 2.0 1.8 Tightening 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.12; February 1.0 0.74; February 0.8 0.74; March 0.6 0.4 0.52; February 0.2 0.0 0.05; March -0.2 -0.4 -0.31; March -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 -1.8 Easing -2.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Growth rates of credit and deposit aggregates,* YoY Interest rates Inflation expectations* Affordability of lending* Growth rates of monetary aggregates,* YoY Average * The indicators were used to calculate the inverse z-score. Source: Bank of Russia calculations. % MONEY MARKET AND KEY RATE • Monetary policy and key rate. On 20 March 2026, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to cut the key rate by 50 bp to 15.00% p.a. The economy was nearing its balanced growth path. In February, price growth predictably slowed after a temporary acceleration in January. However, the Bank of Russia estimated that underlying measures of current price growth remained in the range of 4–5% in annualised terms. The Bank of Russia stated that it would assess the need for a further key rate cut at its upcoming meetings depending on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown, the dynamics of inflation expectations, and the analysis of the risks posed by external and domestic conditions. According to the regulator’s forecast, given the current monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to 4.5–5.5% in 2026. The decision was generally in line with market expectations. However, some analysts predicted a more significant key rate cut. On average, the market continues to expect a gradual pace of monetary policy easing in 2026. • Banking sector liquidity and overnight rates (RUONIA). RUONIA averaged 14.99% in March (vs 15.34% in February). The spread between RUONIA and the key rate narrowed to -36 bp (vs -43 bp in February). The spread volatility did not virtually change, equalling 25 bp (vs 24 bp in February). In the first half of March, interest rate dynamics were influenced by rising demand for liquidity, including from large participants who had previously averaged their required reserves (RR) with delay. This resulted in a narrowing of the spread between RUONIA and the key rate. Over the March RR averaging period (AP), expectations of a key rate reduction exerted significant influence on rate dynamics. During APs, when a key rate reduction is expected, banks demonstrate lower demand for liquidity before the Bank of Russia Board of Directors meeting and higher demand afterwards. This was the case in the second half of March: before the Board of Directors meeting on 20 March, banks decreased their demand for liquidity and averaged RR with delay, and by the end of the month, demand recovered, and the spread between money market rates and the key rate narrowed again. 4 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission 63х170 VOLUME AND COST OF OVERNIGHT BORROWING (AVERAGE VALUE FOR AP).......................................................................................................................................................... Chart 3 ₽ tn Spread between interest rates and key rate, pp 25 3 20 2 15 1 10 0 5 -1 0 -2 03.2024 09.2025 01.2024 05.2024 06.2024 07.2024 09.2024 10.2024 11.2024 01.2025 05.2025 06.2025 10.2025 11.2025 07.2025 01.2026 04.2026 05.2026 04.2024 08.2024 04.2025 02.2024 12.2024 02.2025 08.2025 12.2025 03.2025 02.2026 03.2026 Interbank repos Interbank loans Bank of Russia loans under primary mechanism Bank of Russia loans under supplementary mechanism RUONIA (right-hand scale) Overnight liquidity cost (right-hand scale)** Overnight deposits of legal entities (right-hand scale)* * The cost of borrowing from legal entities, adjusted for RRs. The sample only includes certain transactions of large legal entities where the parameters of a transaction are specified in the payment details. ** The weighted average cost of overnight borrowing in the money market, taking into account the Bank of Russia’s standing facilities. Note. Data for the period until 7 April 2026. Source: Bank of Russia calculations. 63х170 BANK OF RUSSIA OPERATIONS AND BANKING SECTOR LIQUIDITY BALANCE (AVERAGE VALUE FOR AP) (₽ TN).....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Chart 4 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 06.2025 01.2024 06.2024 11.2024 01.2025 05.2025 07.2025 04.2024 05.2024 07.2024 08.2024 09.2024 10.2024 08.2025 09.2025 11.2025 05.2026 10.2025 01.2026 02.2024 03.2024 12.2024 02.2025 03.2025 04.2025 12.2025 04.2026 02.2026 03.2026 Standing deposit facilities Deposit auctions Repo auctions Long-term repo auctions Standing lending facilities and repos Specialised instruments and FX swap of Bank of Russia Liquidity deficit/surplus Market participants’ demand for liquidity* * The structural liquidity surplus/deficit of the banking sector minus the operations, demand for which is non-market in nature. The indicator shows whether market participants need to raise liquidity from the Bank of Russia. Note. Data for the period until 7 April 2026. Source: Bank of Russia calculations. The banking sector’s demand for liquidity on market terms averaged ₽3.6 trillion in March (vs ₽2.9 trillion in February). The amount of cash in circulation was up by ₽0.3 trillion in March (vs ₽0.2 trillion in February), significantly higher than in previous years. Such dynamics may be associated, among other things, with mobile internet outages that made households and businesses accumulate cash reserves for current payments. Furthermore, the outflow of liquidity was also driven by the Bank of Russia’s mirroring of foreign currency conversion by the Ministry of Finance as part of the investment of National Wealth Fund (NWF) resources in eligible financial assets in 2025 H2. Fiscal operations did not make a significant impact on liquidity. The Federal Treasury effectively managed temporarily available balances in budget accounts and promptly deposited or withdrew funds from bank deposits depending on the dynamics of expenditures, revenues, and the amount of OFZ offerings. Demand for standing lending facilities persisted, including in order to comply with regulatory requirements, which slightly reduced banks’ demand for liquidity on market terms. 5 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission 63х170 CHANGE IN CASH IN CIRCULATION (CUMULATIVE, YEAR-TO-DATE) (₽ TN)..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Chart 5 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2016–2019, 2021 2023 2024 2025 2026 Note. ‘+’ – decrease; ‘-’ – increase. Source: Bank of Russia calculations. The structural liquidity balance forecast for the December 2026 AP has not changed and ranges between ₽1.9 trillion and ₽3.0 trillion, while the banks’ demand for liquidity on market terms ranges between ₽5.3 trillion and ₽6.4 trillion.1 • Money market. By the end of March, the ROISfix curve shifted downwards by 52 bp across all maturities. The market expects that the key rate cut cycle will continue at the next meeting, although the pace of its decrease in 2026 will be moderate. Market participants continue to factor the risks associated with uncertainty about external conditions and new fiscal policy parameters in their assessments. ROISFIX CURVE............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ Table 1 Maturity 1w 2w 1M 2M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 31.03.2026 14.87 14.88 14.86 14.73 14.62 14.43 14.21 13.26 27.02.2026 15.26 15.26 15.13 15.05 15.00 14.90 14.43 13.78 Change, bp -39 -38 -27 -32 -38 -47 -22 -52 Average for 2025 18.98 18.96 18.88 18.76 18.63 18.39 17.71 16.08 Change, bp -411 -408 -402 -403 -401 -396 -350 -282 BOND MARKET • OFZ yield curve. In March, average monthly OFZ yields declined along the entire curve due to both the actual key rate cut and the regulator’s continued signal regarding the future monetary policy path. • Breakeven inflation. Average breakeven inflation was changing unevenly in March compared to February levels: it increased by 5 bp to 6.1% from OFZ-IN maturing in 2032 and by 66 bp to 3.6% from OFZ-IN maturing in 2028, remaining close to the inflation target. 1 See Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission (January 2026). 6 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission OFZ ZERO COUPON YIELD CURVE...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Table 2 Maturity 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 31.03.2026 13.05 13.80 14.23 14.58 14.62 14.52 27.02.2026 14.24 14.60 14.75 14.75 14.60 14.31 Change, bp -119 -80 -52 -17 +2 +19 Average for March 2026 13.54 14.11 14.41 14.59 14.53 14.34 Average for February 2026 14.37 14.71 14.87 14.89 14.75 14.49 Change, bp -83 -60 -46 -30 -22 -16 Average for 2025 15.91 15.48 15.33 15.18 15.07 14.92 Change, bp -286 -168 -110 -60 -45 -40 • Secondary OFZ market. The secondary OFZ market turnover declined compared to the previous month but remained elevated relative to the average for the past year. Average daily trades totalled ₽61 billion (vs ₽63.9 billion per day in February). The composition and behaviour of market participants hardly changed. The primary buyers were non-bank financial institutions using their equity capital (₽106 billion) and individuals (₽64.9 billion). In March, SICIs remained the largest net sellers (-₽266 billion). • OFZ offerings. In March, the Russian Ministry of Finance held four auction weeks. The Ministry offered fixed coupon federal government bonds (OFZ-PD) with maturities from four to eight years. The bonds were mainly in demand by SICIs and NFIs as part of trust management. The premium to the secondary market yields ranged from +1 bp to +8 bp for OFZ-PD. The Russian Ministry of Finance’s borrowing plan for 2026 is set at ₽6.5 trillion at par. The borrowing plan for 2026 Q1 was set at ₽1.2 trillion and was fulfilled by 128%. • Secondary corporate bond market. In March, corporate bond yields were slightly below the February level on average (15.90% in February vs 15.72% in March on average). The average monthly spread between this index and OFZ yields widened to 196 bp (vs 143 bp in February), and was below the average value of January 2022–December 2025 (200 bp). • Primary corporate bond market. In March, in the primary market, the volume of new corporate bonds issued was two times higher MoM and comparable YoY (₽1.3 trillion in March 2026; ₽649 billion in February 2026, and ₽1.1 trillion in March 2025), including foreign currency- denominated issues, non-market offerings, and structured products.2 In March, the corporate bond portfolio continued to expand MoM. the YtD growth was above the March 2025 level (+4.9% in March 2026, +1.1% in February 2026, +1.3% in March 2025). As of the end of March, the corporate bond market totalled ₽37.3 trillion (+18.6% YoY; ₽35.9 trillion in February 2026). In March, the main issuers were oil and gas companies and the banking sector. • Quasi-foreign currency corporate bonds. In March, standard yuan-denominated bonds were offered in the amount of ₽17.6 billion, while quasi-foreign currency bonds were not offered. Due to their redemption, the total portfolio of these bonds in the ruble equivalent continued to shrink. As of the end of March, its reduction totalled ₽174 billion (vs ₽157 billion in February 2026). According to Cbonds, yields on substitute bonds rose to 8.56% as of the end of the month (+43 bp MoM; +76 bp YoY). 2 Cbonds. 7 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission LOAN AND DEPOSIT RATES • Corporate loan rates. In February, rates on short-term loans in the corporate segment decreased 3 to 18.0% per annum, and long-term ones – to 14.6% per annum (Chart 12). However, as in previous months, their dynamics were mainly influenced by the change in the proportion of transactions on quasi-preferential terms.4 Interest rates on corporate loans, except for loans at subsidised rates, were down as well. • Retail loan rates. In February, according to preliminary data, the weighted average interest rate on long-term household loans increased by 3.1 pp to 19.1% (Chart 12). This was associated with a reduction in the amount of subsidised mortgages issued due to changes in the terms of the Family Mortgage programme effective from 1 February 2026. As a result, firstly, the proportion of mortgages in the structure of retail lending turnover declined compared to January; secondly, the proportion of subsidised programmes in new mortgage loans went down from 82% to 60%, and the average mortgage rate rose by 2.4 pp to 10.0% per annum. The weighted average interest rate on market-based mortgages edged down, remaining above 19%. According to estimates, rates on long-term consumer loans also declined in February. Contrastingly, short- term retail lending rates were up for the second month in a row. In March, according to recent data, market-based mortgage rates continued to edge down (Chart 13). • Deposit rates. According to preliminary data, weighted average rates on ruble deposits decreased in February: in the short-term segment, by 0.4 pp to 14.4% per annum, while in the long-term one, they were down by 0.8 pp to 11.0% per annum, i.e. much more than in the previous month (Chart 12). This was facilitated in particular by the key rate cut in February, after which the banking sector continued to reduce product rates. In addition, during monetary policy easing cycles, banks and their clients continue to prefer short-term borrowing and deposits, and pricing conditions in this segment therefore ease more slowly than in the long-term one. In February, deposit rate dynamics corresponded to the direction of changes in OFZ yields for maturities of up to three years (see Section ‘OFZ yield curve’), unlike January, when their dynamics were diverse. These fluctuations occurred because the price formation in the deposit segment is better explained by interest rates fixed in interest rate swaps rather than by the OFZ zero- coupon yield curve. According to recent data, ruble deposit rates continued to edged down in March, and the FRG1005 index was down by 0.3 pp over the month (Chart 13). CREDIT AND DEPOSIT AGGREGATES • Banking system’s claims on organisations. Activity in the corporate lending market increased. Claims on organisations rose6 moderately in February: month-on-month growth equalled 0.6%, following a 0.9% contraction in January.7 Seasonally adjusted, growth in claims on organisations sped up as well. Growth was mainly driven by non-financial organisations’ debt in the long-term 3 Interest rates on short-term deposits (for up to one year, except for sight deposits), short-term loans (for up to one year), and long-term deposits and loans (for over one year). 4 Quasi-preferential terms mean alternative measures to support borrowers, other than subsidised loan rates. They include government guarantees, subsidised funding for banks, and granting loans at reduced rates with the involvement of government development institutions, the NWF, and other government agencies. For details, see Box 11 ‘Subsidised lending and its impact on the transmission mechanism’ of the Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2026–2028. 5 The average interest rate of the 80 largest deposit banks on one-year deposits worth at least ₽100,000, according to the information agency Frank RG. 6 Hereinafter, increases in balance sheet indicators are calculated based on the Depository Corporations Survey as of the relevant reporting date. Increases in foreign currency claims and deposits are calculated in US dollar terms. When calculating increases in the indicators comprising foreign currency and ruble components, growth of the foreign currency component is converted into rubles using the period average exchange rate. See also Main methodological differences between monetary statistics and banking sector statistics. See Credit to the Economy and Money Supply (as of 1 March 2026). 7 8 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission ruble segment. As to short-term loans, companies continued to repay them. Banks’ investment in ruble-denominated bonds of the non-financial sector increased. As of the end of the month, annual growth in claims on organisations was 11.5% vs 11.4% in January (Chart 15). In March, according to preliminary data, growth in claims on organisations slowed, mainly due to the foreign currency segment, while ruble lending rose by an amount comparable with February. • Banking system’s claims on households. Growth in retail lending halted in February. The month- on-month change was zero, following a 0.6% increase in January. Adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, growth in claims on households slowed. Taking into consideration the reduction in claims on households in February 2025, observed before the beginning of the monetary policy easing cycle, growth in claims on households accelerated by 0.3 pp to 4.3% in annualised terms (Chart 15). Activity in the mortgage segment decreased significantly (Chart 16). Following the revision of the Family Mortgage terms and conditions and the increase in demand for this subsidised programme in November 2025–January 2026, the amount of issues dropped to ₽290 billion, with the proportion of subsidised loans amounting to approximately 60% after 82% in January. In February, annual growth8 of the household debt on mortgage housing loans9 was close to the level of the previous month and equalled 10.4%. The unsecured consumer loan portfolio contracted again. In March, according to preliminary data, growth in claims on households was positive, taking into account transactions to securitise mortgage and consumer loans. • Household deposits. Growth in household ruble deposits resumed in February: balances were up by 2.0% over the month, compared to a 1.7% decline in January. This trend generally corresponds to the February seasonal pattern in household deposit movements, following a decline in January. Nearly two-thirds of this growth was due to current accounts, while in the time deposit segment, depositors, as in previous months, preferred deposits for up to six months. Thus, overall, savings behaviour remained attractive to households in February, despite the decline in deposit rates amid monetary easing. In February, growth in retail ruble deposit balances was comparable to the change in the same period of 2025. As a result, the annual growth rate of retail ruble deposits hardly changed and equalled 15.1% in February (Chart 17). Balances in foreign currency accounts of households significantly decreased in February: their monthly growth was -4.6% compared to 2.6% in January. This decline affected both current accounts and time deposits. In March, according to recent data, the changes in ruble deposits were insignificant, while the decrease in foreign currency deposits continued and sped up compared to the previous month. MONETARY AGGREGATES • Money supply. In February, the increase in monetary aggregates accelerated because of the postponement of large tax payments due at the end of February to the first business day of March. The annual growth rates of money supply in the national definition (M2) and broad money (M2X) therefore increased and equalled 11.4% and 12.4% as of the end of February after 9.7% and 11.0% in January (Chart 18). The effect of the tax payment redistribution on money supply dynamics softened during March. According to recent estimates, the annual broad money growth rate in March remained close to its February figure, equalling 12.5%. 8 Increases in loan portfolio indicators are calculated based on the acquired claims according to the reporting data of operating credit institutions, listed in the State Register as of the relevant reporting date and adjusted for foreign currency revaluation. When calculating increases in the indicators comprising foreign currency and ruble components, growth of the foreign currency component is converted into rubles using the period average exchange rate. As regards the indicator ‘Outstanding housing mortgages’, in addition to the housing mortgage portfolio, banks also recognise on their 9 balance sheets (according to Reporting Form 0409316) the housing mortgages transferred to mortgage agents under securitisation transactions (according to the estimates based on Reporting Form 0409316 and mortgage agents’ accounting statements). 9 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission • Sources of money supply. The postponement of February tax payments to early March was the key driver of the accelerated broad money growth. Thus, in February, the contribution of claims on the economy to the annual change in broad money was up by 0.1 pp to 10.6 pp, while the contribution of net claims on general government was down by 2.1 pp to 4.7 pp (Chart 19). In March, according to recent estimates, the overall contribution of the budget factor was significantly higher YoY, which supported the money supply growth. • Components of money supply. In the annual broad money growth in February, the proportion of ruble funds held by households in deposits edged up due to the resumption of inflows of funds into accounts and deposits (see Section ‘Household Deposits'). Also, due to deferred tax payments, balances of funds in corporate deposits increased as of the end of February, and their contribution to the annual money supply growth was significant. The amount of cash in circulation outside the banking system (M0) rose slightly in February, but its portion in the money supply declined as other components grew. In general, ruble components of broad money added 10.3 pp to the annual change in M2X in February after 8.7% in January. The contribution of foreign currency deposits declined in February due to household deposits and was 2.1 pp. In March, according to recent estimates, the contribution of ruble deposits to monetary aggregates continued to grow. 10 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission • Exchange rate (foreign exchange channel) In March, the average monthly exchange rate of the ruble went down again against all main foreign currencies, namely by 4.6% against the US dollar, by 2.3% against the euro, and by 5.0% against the yuan. The main factor behind the ruble’s depreciation was a significant reduction in foreign currency sales in the domestic market, both by exporters due to low prices in global commodity markets in January–February, and by the Bank of Russia following the Russian Ministry of Finance’s suspension of the fiscal rule. However, the ruble was supported by the moderate imports dynamics. RUBLE EXCHANGE RATE..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Table 3 USD/RUB (Bank of Russia) EUR/RUB (Bank of Russia) CNY/RUB (Moscow Exchange) 31.03.2026 81.30 93.44 11.74 28.02.2026 77.27 91.30 11.20 Change, % +5.20 +2.34 +4.82 Average for March 2026 80.41 93.04 11.68 Average for February 2026 76.85 90.96 11.12 Change, % +4.63 +2.28 +5.02 Average for 2025 83.62 94.31 11.65 Change, % -2.78 -0.93 +0.80 Note. ‘+’ – depreciation of the ruble; ‘-’ – appreciation of the ruble. Sources: Moscow Exchange, Bank of Russia calculations. The real effective exchange rate (REER) of the ruble, calculated against the currencies of its major trading partners, strengthened by 2.5% in February compared to the previous month. According to preliminary data, the REER lost 1.0% in March MoM and stayed above its median of recent years (+12.2% vs the median of January 2015–February 2026). USD/RUB demonstrated similar dynamics relative to its median: +3.9%, EUR/RUB: +6.6%; CNY/RUB: +21.6%. • Russian stock market As of the end of March, the Russian stock market did not virtually change. Over the month, the index was changing diversely, fluctuating between 2,776 p and 2,953 p due to geopolitical factors, oil price growth, ruble dynamics, and the monetary policy decision. As of the end of the month, the MOEX Russia Index equalled 2,776 p (-0.8% MoM), while the Russian Volatility Index (RVI) decreased to 22 p (-2 p MoM). Sectoral indices showed mixed dynamics over the month. Prices for shares of oil and gas and chemical companies demonstrated weak growth (+9.3% MoM and +3.6% MoM, respectively). As of the end of the month, shares of metallurgical companies lost in value (-12.6%) due to lower gold prices. The same happened to shares of construction companies and the information technology sector (-9.5% MoM and -7.7% MoM, respectively). • Global markets The GDP-weighted average policy rate in advanced economies (AEs) remained virtually unchanged in March MoM (2.77% in March vs 2.76% in February). Rates changed only in Australia (+25 bp to 4.1%) and Iceland (+25 bp to 7.5%). The weighted average policy rates in emerging market economies (EMEs) declined this month due to the ongoing monetary easing cycle in most countries: Mexico (-25 bp, to 6.75%), Brazil (-25 bp, to 14.75%), Uruguay (-75 bp, to 5.75%), Poland (-25 bp, to 3.75%), and Ghana (-150 bp, to 14.0%). Meanwhile, Colombia’s Bank of the Republic raised the policy rate by 100 bp to 11.25%. Average monthly yields on US Treasuries rose moderately by 25 bp in March, primarily for short-term maturities. This is mainly due to a shift in market expectations regarding the future path of the US Fed rate. According to CME FedWatch data, at the end of March, most financial market participants expect the start of monetary policy easing in 2027 H2 (previously in 2026 H2). European bonds demonstrated a more notable increase in yields (35-60 bp), reflecting market expectations of interest rate hikes in the euro area starting as early as June. 11 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission UST YIELD CURVE........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ Table 4 Maturity 2Y 5Y 10Y 31.03.2026 3.79 3.92 4.30 27.02.2026 3.38 3.51 3.97 Change, bp 41 41 33 Average for March 2026 3.71 3.85 4.25 Average for February 2026 3.47 3.68 4.13 Change, bp 24 17 12 Average for 2025 3.81 3.92 4.29 Change, bp -2 0 +1 Sources: Cbonds, Bank of Russia calculations. The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened slightly in March compared to February (+2.3% to 100 p), remaining near its lowest levels since 2022, due to revised expectations of the future path of the US Fed rate and global avoidance of risks amid tensions in the Middle East. In March, EMEs’ currencies were mostly depreciating against the US dollar (BRL/USD: -1.2%; CNY/USD: -0.5%; TRY/USD: -1.2%; MXN/USD: -4.1%). As of the end of March, global stock markets were mostly down (S&P 500: -5.1%; Stoxx 600: -8.0%; Nikkei 225: -13.2%; SSE Composite: -6.5%; Nifty 50: -11.3%; MSCI ACWI: -7.4%). In March, the most significant change was demonstrated by the Japanese stock index falling by 3.4% on 19 March amid the conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices. However, the regulator admitted a possible rate hike in April. The largest declines in stock prices were observed among manufacturers of electronics and trade companies. 12 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission STATISTICAL TABLES AND CHARTS IN MARCH, OUTLOW OF LIQUIDITY FROM BANKS WAS MAINLY DRIVEN BY INCREASE IN CASH IN CIRCULATION (₽ TN)...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Table 5 January – March 2026 2025 March 2026 2026 (forecast) Liquidity deficit (+) / surplus (-) (as of beginning of period) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 Liquidity inflow (+) / outflow (-): 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 [-2.4; -1.3] change in balances of funds in general government accounts with the Bank of Russia and other operations* 1.2 0.1 0.0 [-0.7; -0.3] change in cash in circulation -1.0 -0.1 -0.3 [-1.3; -0.8] change in required reserves -0.2 0.0 0.0 [-0.4; -0.2] Structural liquidity deficit (+) / surplus (-) (as of period-end) 0.6 0.7 [1.9; 3.0] Structural liquidity deficit (-) / surplus (+) (monthly average for AP)** 0.4 0.8 Demand for liquidity on market terms (monthly average for AP)** 3.2 3.9 [5.3; 6.4] * Including fiscal rule-based operations to buy / sell foreign currency in the domestic FX market and other operations. ** Data for RR AP closest to the period end (until 7 April 2026). Source: Bank of Russia calculations. 63х170 RUONIA (%)................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Chart 6 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 RUONIA Interest rate corridor bounds Bank of Russia key rate Source: Bank of Russia calculations. 2x63х82 IN MARCH, SPREAD BETWEEN RUONIA AND KEY RATE WIDENED AMID BANKS’ EXPECTATIONS PRIOR TO BOARD OF DIRECTORS KEY RATE MEETING................................................................................................................................................................................................................ Chart 7 SPREAD BETWEEN RUONIA AND KEY RATE, PP LIQUIDITY DEFICIT/SURPLUS, ₽ TN 1.0 6 0.8 4 0.6 0.4 2 0.2 0.0 0 -0.2 -2 -0.4 -0.6 -4 -0.8 -1.0 -6 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Spread between RUONIA and key rate Liquidity deficit (-)/surplus (+) Spread between RUONIA and key rate (monthly average) Structural liquidity deficit (-)/surplus (+) (monthly average) Source: Bank of Russia calculations. 13 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission 63х170 BANK OF RUSSIA’S BALANCE SHEET (₽ TN).....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Chart 8 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Liquidity providing operations Bank of Russia bonds Liquidity factors* Deposits with Bank of Russia Required reserves in special accounts Correspondent accounts with Bank of Russia Liquidity deficit/surplus * This item is balancing and comprises changes in all other, not differentiated, items of the Bank of Russia’s balance sheet. Source: Bank of Russia calculations. 63х170 MONEY MARKET CURVES WERE DOWN FOR ALL MATURITIES IN MARCH....................................................................................................................................................................................................... Chart 9 MONEY MARKET CURVES, % P.A. 16 15 14 13 12 1D 1W 2W 1M 2M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y OFZ 27.02.2026 OFZ 31.03.2026 OIS 27.02.2026 OIS 31.03.2026 Sources: Bank of Russia, National Finance Association. 63х170 OFZ CURVE WAS DOWN FOR SHORT-TERM MATURITIES AND EDGED UP FOR LONG-TERM ONES IN MARCH................................ Chart 10 OFZ ZERO COUPON YIELD CURVE, % P.A. 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Years 30.12.2022 29.12.2023 27.02.2026 31.03.2026 Sources: Moscow Exchange, National Finance Association. 14 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission SPREAD BETWEEN OFZ AND UST YIELDS NARROWED OWING TO MONETARY EASING IN RUSSIA................................................................Chart 11 2x63х82 SPREAD BETWEEN BANK OF RUSSIA KEY RATE SPREAD BETWEEN OFZ AND UST YIELDS, PP AND US FED FUNDS RATE, PP 20 20 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2Y OFZ-UST spread 10Y OFZ-UST spread Sources: Moscow Exchange, Cbonds, Bank of Russia calculations. 63х170 DYNAMICS OF RATES ON LOANS TO COMPANIES AND HOUSEHOLDS WERE LARGELY EXPLAINED BY CHANGE IN NUMBER OF OPERATIONS ON NON-MARKET TERMS................................................................................................................................................. Chart 12 INTEREST RATES ON BANKS’ RUBLE LONG-TERM TRANSACTIONS, % P.A. 25 20 15 10 5 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Key rate 3Y OFZ yield Loans to non-financial organisations Household loans Household deposits Source: Bank of Russia. 63х170 MONETARY EASING CONTINUED TO TRANSLATE INTO DECREASE IN BANK RATES ON DEPOSITS AND MARKET-BASED MORTGAGES IN MARCH................................................................................................................................................................................................................ Chart 13 HIGH-FREQUENCY INTEREST RATE INDICATORS, % P.A. 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 01.2023 05.2023 06.2023 07.2023 09.2023 10.2023 11.2023 05.2025 06.2025 07.2025 09.2025 10.2025 11.2025 04.2023 01.2024 05.2024 06.2024 07.2024 09.2024 10.2024 11.2024 01.2025 08.2023 04.2024 04.2025 08.2025 01.2026 04.2026 02.2023 03.2023 12.2023 02.2024 08.2024 12.2024 02.2025 12.2025 03.2024 03.2025 02.2026 03.2026 Key rate 1Y OFZ Deposits (FRG100) Mortgage loans (new housing: market rates) Mortgage loans (subsidised rates*) * Until 1 July 2024 – the interest rate under the Subsidised Mortgage programme, from 1 July 2024 – the interest rate under the Family Mortgage programme. Sources: Bank of Russia, Frank RG, JSC DOM.RF. 15 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission 2x63х82 IN 2025 Q4, OVERALL EASING OF LENDING CONDITIONS WAS HELD BACK BY PERSISTENTLY TIGHT NON-PRICE CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR CORPORATE CLIENTS.......................................................................................................................... Chart 14 INDICES OF LENDING CONDITIONS,* PP General conditions Non-price conditions 80 50 Tightening Tightening 60 40 40 30 20 20 0 10 -20 0 -40 -10 -60 -20 Easing Easing -80 -30 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Large businesses Small and medium-sized businesses Mortgage loans Consumer loans * The dotted lines show respondent banks’ expectations (recorded in 2025 Q4) regarding changes in lending conditions and demand for loans in 2026 H1. Source: Bank of Russia. 63х170 IN FEBRUARY, CLAIMS ON ORGANISATIONS INCREASED AGAIN DUE TO RUBLE LOANS TO NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Chart 15 BANKING SYSTEM’S CLAIMS, % 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Annual growth in claims on organisations Annual growth in claims on households Source: Bank of Russia calculations. 63х170 FOLLOWING REVISION OF FAMILY MORTGAGE TERMS, ACTIVITY IN MORTGAGE SEGMENT WEAKENED, AND OTHER CLAIMS ON HOUSEHOLDS DECLINED IN FEBRUARY...................................................................................... Chart 16 CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL COMPONENTS TO ANNUAL GROWTH IN BANKING SYSTEM’S CLAIMS ON HOUSEHOLDS, PP 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Housing mortgage loans Other claims Total growth in claims on households, % Source: Bank of Russia calculations. 16 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission 63х170 ANNUAL GROWTH OF HOUSEHOLD DEPOSITS WAS BACKED BY RESUMPTION OF FUND INFLOWS IN FEBRUARY..................................................................................................................................................................................................Chart 17 CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL COMPONENTS TO ANNUAL GROWTH IN HOUSEHOLD DEPOSITS, PP 45 80 30 60 15 40 0 20 -15 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Ruble transferable deposits Ruble time deposits Foreign currency deposits Revaluation of foreign currency deposits Total growth, % Share of ruble time deposits, % (right-hand scale) Source: Bank of Russia calculations. CREDIT AND DEPOSIT MARKET INDICATORS.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................Table 6 November 2025 December 2025 January 2026 February 2026 Interest rates on banks’ long-term transactions in rubles household deposits % p.a. 12.2 11.8 11.8 11.0 household loans % p.a. 14.4 16.1 16.1 19.1 corporate loans % p.a. 13.8 15.6 15.6 14.6 Household deposits % YoY, AFCR 16.1 15.2 15.2 14.9 in rubles % YOY 16.2 15.1 15.1 15.1 in foreign currency % YOY 16.5 18.8 18.8 12.8 share of foreign currency % 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 Claims of banking system on economy % YoY, AFCR 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.6 on organisations % YoY, AFCR 11.9 11.4 11.4 11.5 on households % YoY, AFCR 2.8 4.1 3.9 4.3 Money supply (M2) % YOY 10.6 9.7 9.7 11.4 Broad money (M2X) % YoY, AFCR 12.0 11.0 11.0 12.4 Note. YoY – year-on-year, AFCR – adjusted for foreign currency revaluation. The Marshall-Edgeworth decomposition is used to make the adjustment for foreign currency revaluation. Source: Bank of Russia calculations. 63х170 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF BROAD MONEY IN MARCH WAS CLOSE TO ITS FEBRUARY VALUE DUE TO BUDGET FACTOR................................................................................................................................................................................................ Chart 18 ANNUAL GROWTH OF MAIN MONETARY AGGREGATES, % 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 M0 M2 M2X* M2X * Adjusted for foreign currency revaluation. Source: Bank of Russia calculations. 17 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission ANNUAL GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES SPED UP IN FEBRUARY DUE 63х170 TO POSTPONEMENT OF TAX PAYMENTS TO EARLY MARCH........................................................................................................................................................................... Chart 19 CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL COMPONENTS TO ANNUAL M2X GROWTH, PP* 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Claims on organisations Claims on households Net claims on general government Bank of Russia’s net foreign assets Credit institutions’ net foreign assets Escrow accounts Revaluation, other assets and liabilities M2X growth, % (right-hand scale) M2X growth,* % (right-hand scale) * Adjusted for foreign currency revaluation. Source: Bank of Russia calculations. 63х170 RUBLE SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES IN MARCH (01.01.2018 = 100)..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Chart 20 RUBLE EXCHANGE RATE AGAINST FOREIGN CURRENCIES 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 RUB/USD RUB/EUR RUB/CNY Sources: Cbonds, Bank of Russia calculations. 18 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission RUSSIAN FINANCIAL MARKET MAINLY DEMONSTRATED NEGATIVE TRENDS IN MARCH.............................................................................................. Table 7 Indicator 31.03.2026 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y Russian financial market (‘+’ – positive trends, ‘-’ – negative trends) RUB/USD exchange rate 81.30 -5.4 -4.6 1.9 -3.9 3.0 MOEX Russia Index 2,776 -0.8 1.3 3.4 0.4 -8.2 RTS Index 1,076 -5.7 -3.5 5.1 -3.4 -5.5 Government bond yields 14.42 -13 -11 -16 -3 -115 Corporate bond yields 15.57 -29 -23 -153 -12 -630 Regional bond yields 14.99 -56 3 -91 4 -390 RVI 22 -2 -4 -12 -12 -23 Exchange rates (per US dollar, % change, ‘+’ – appreciation, ‘-’ – depreciation) US Dollar Index 99.88 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.6 -4.0 Euro 1.16 -2.3 -1.8 -1.5 -1.7 6.7 AEs* Japanese yen 158.73 1.7 1.7 7.3 1.3 5.9 Pound sterling 1.32 -1.9 -2.0 -1.6 -1.9 2.2 Ruble 81.30 -5.2 -3.6 1.8 -2.8 4.3 Brazilian real 5.19 -1.2 6.9 2.5 5.6 10.0 Mexican peso 17.93 -4.1 0.2 2.1 0.4 12.0 EMEs Chinese yuan 6.89 -0.5 1.6 3.2 1.7 5.0 Turkish lira 44.48 -1.2 -3.6 -7.0 -3.6 -17.0 South African rand 16.94 -6.5 -1.5 1.9 -2.3 8.1 10Y bond yields (% p.a., change in bp, ‘+’ – increase, ‘-’ – decrease) USA 4.30 33 18 14 12 3 Germany 3.00 36 18 29 15 28 AEs Japan 2.35 24 30 70 29 81 UK 4.91 68 43 22 44 22 Russia 14.52 20 15 -41 8 -69 Brazil 14.33 85 47 58 47 -78 Mexico 9.27 55 29 68 32 -7 EMEs China 1.82 1 -3 -6 -4 -7 Turkey 34.39 416 522 512 723 318 South Africa 9.19 122 88 1 98 -151 5Y CDS spreads (bp, change in bp, ‘+’ – increase, ‘-’ – decrease) USA 39 8 12 2 12 2 Germany 10 2 2 1 2 -4 AEs Japan 29 4 4 10 4 12 UK 22 7 5 1 5 2 Brazil 134 7 1 4 1 -45 Mexico 106 20 20 18 20 -26 EMEs China 52 7 9 14 9 1 Turkey 294 67 97 47 97 -12 South Africa 198 57 64 33 64 -24 Stock indices (p, % change, ‘+’ – increase, ‘-’ – decrease) S&P 500 6,529 -5.1 -5.5 -2.4 -4.6 17.0 Stoxx 600 583 -8.0 -1.0 4.5 -1.6 7.6 AEs Nikkei 225 51,064 -13.2 1.1 13.6 1.4 37.6 FTSE 100 10,176 -6.7 3.1 8.8 2.5 17.5 MSCI EM 1,397 -13.3 -0.3 3.8 -0.5 24.7 Bovespa 187,462 -0.7 16.8 28.2 16.3 42.1 IPC Mexico 68,611 -3.9 4.9 9.1 6.8 29.0 EMEs SSE Composite 3,892 -6.5 -1.9 0.2 -1.9 16.1 BIST 100 12,791 -6.8 14.7 16.2 13.6 32.4 FTSE/JSE 114,068 -11.2 -1.7 5.7 -1.5 27.3 * Advanced economies. Sources: Moscow Exchange, Cbonds, Bank of Russia calculations. 19 Monetary Conditions and Monetary Transmission IN MARCH, STOCK INDICES DECLINED IN MOST EMES 2x63х82 (01.01.2018 = 100)....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Chart 21 STOCK INDICES OF ADVANCED ECONOMIES STOCK INDICES OF EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES 280 260 1 400 260 240 1 200 240 220 220 200 1 000 200 180 180 800 160 160 600 140 140 120 400 120 100 100 200 80 80 60 60 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Bovespa SSE Composite S&P 500 Stoxx 600 Nikkei 225 FTSE 100 IMOEX Russia MSCI EM BIST 100 (right-hand scale) Note. The stock indices are specified in national currencies. Sources: Cbonds, Bank of Russia calculations. Data cut-off dates: •Money market and key rate – 31 March 2026; •Bond market – 31 March 2026; •Loan and deposit rates – 28 January 2025, high-frequency data – 31 March 2026; •Credit and deposit aggregates – 1 March 2026, high-frequency data – 1 April 2026; •Monetary aggregates – 1 March 2026, high-frequency data – 1 April 2026. The electronic version of the information and analytical commentary is available on the Bank of Russia website. Please send your comments and suggestions to svc_analysis@cbr.ru. This commentary was prepared by the Monetary Policy Department. Bldg V, 12 Neglinnaya Street, Moscow, 107016 Bank of Russia website: www.cbr.ru © Central Bank of the Russian Federation 2026 20