6 May 2026 March 2026 Retail trade ◼ In March 2026, seasonally adjusted retail sales increased by 0.8% in value and by 0.7% in volume compared with February 2026. ◼ In the first quarter of 2026, retail sales rose by 0.6% in value and by 0.2% in volume compared with the previous quarter. ◼ On a year-on-year basis, retail sales in March 2026 increased by 3.7% in value and was up 2.1% in volume. ◼ On a year-on-year basis, retail sales increased by 3.7% in large-scale distribution, by 3.1% in small-scale retail and by 3.4% in non-store sales. Online sales rose by 11.2% over the same period. ◼ Among non-food products, nearly all product groups exhibited positive year-on-year growth. The largest increase was recorded in Computers and telecommunications equipment (+8.6%), while the sharpest declines was observed in Shoes, leather goods and travel items (-1.3%). CHART 1. RETAIL TRADE, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INDEX AND THREE-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE January 2021 – March 2026, value and volume (index, 2021=100) 115 Monthly Index Value Three-month Moving Average Value Monthly Index Volume Three-month Moving Average Volume 110 105 100 95 90 2021 PRESS OFFICE tel. +39 06 4673.2243/44 ufficiostampa@istat.it 2022 2023 CONTACT CENTRE contact.istat.it 2024 2025 2026 RETAIL TRADE CHART 2. RETAIL TRADE, MONTH ON SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO PERCENTAGE CHANGES January 2022 – March 2026, percentage changes in value and volume, non-seasonally adjusted (index, 2021=100) Value % Volume 10 5 0 -5 -10 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 TABLE 1. RETAIL TRADE BY MARKETABLE GOODS SECTOR March 2026, months on previous months and months on same months a year ago percentage changes in value and volume, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted (index, 2021=100) (a) Months on previous months percentage changes (seasonally adjusted) MARKETABLE GOODS SECTOR Mar26 Feb26 Value Jan-Mar26 Oct-Dec25 Volume Value Volume Food +0.9 +0.5 +0.9 +0.1 Non food +0.7 +0.9 +0.6 +0.3 +0.8 +0.7 +0.6 +0.2 Total Months on same months a year ago percentage changes (non-seasonally adjusted) Mar26 Mar25 Value Jan-Mar26 Jan-Mar25 Volume Value Volume Food +4.3 +1.5 +3.4 +0.9 Non food +3.3 +2.7 +2.1 +1.2 Total +3.7 +2.1 +2.6 +1.0 (a) Provisional data TABLE 2. RETAIL TRADE BY MARKETABLE GOODS SECTOR AND CHANNEL OF DISTRIBUTION March 2026, months on same months a year ago percentage changes in value, non-seasonally adjusted (index, 2021=100) (a) MARKETABLE GOODS SECTOR AND CHANNEL OF DISTRIBUTION Mar26 Mar25 Jan-Mar26 Jan-Mar25 Large-scale distribution +3.7 +3.3 Food +4.5 +3.8 Non food +1.8 +2.4 Small-scale distribution +3.1 +1.5 Food +3.2 +2.0 Non food Non-store retail sales +3.1 +1.3 +3.4 +1.2 Online sales +11.2 +8.2 Total +3.7 +2.6 (a) Provisional data |2 RETAIL TRADE CHART 3. YEAR-ON-YEAR NON-FOOD GROWTH RATE BY PRODUCT SEGMENT March 2026, months on same months a year ago value (index, 2021=100) Computers and telecommunications equipment Tools Electric household appliances, audio-video equipment Pharmaceutical products Cosmetic and toilet articles Other goods Clothing Stationery, books, newspapers and magazines Optical instruments and photographic equipment Sporting equipment, games and toys Durable and non-durable household items Furniture and textile items and household furnishings Shoes, leather goods and travel items -1.3 -2 |3 8.6 5.6 4.6 4.4 3.8 3.3 3.1 2.2 1.6 1.0 -0.1 -0.1 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 RETAIL TRADE The table below shows routine revisions, calculated as differences (in percentage points) between first release and the latest estimates concerning growth rates of the same reference period. Revisions to year-on-year growth rate refer to not adjusted data of the last month prior to the current reference period. With regard to the short-term growth rate, an additional monthly revision for seasonally adjusted data occurs as new observations can change the seasonal factors that are applied to the whole time series. This press release provides the revised data for February 2026 (Table 3). TABLE 3. REVISIONS TO GROWTH RATES BY MARKETABLE GOODS SECTOR Differences in percentage points (index, 2021=100) Food sales Month-on-month change (a) Non-food sales Year-on-year change (b) Month-on-month change (a) Total sales Year-on-year change (b) Month-on-month change (a) Year-on-year change (b) February 2026 Value 0.0 0.0 +0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 Volume -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 (a) Figures are calculated on seasonally adjusted data (b) Figures are calculated on non-seasonally adjusted data al |4 RETAIL TRADE Large-scale distribution: definition of this aggregate was revised according to the classification ATECO 2007 (Italian version of the Classification of Economic Activities NACE Rev.2). Large-scale distribution includes the following categories: Non-specialized stores with food predominating Hypermarket (Ateco 47111): store combining a supermarket (food products) and a department store (non-food products), with a selling surface over 2.500 square metres. Supermarket (Ateco 47112): store operating in food retailing, organized as a self-service shop covering a surface area over 400 square metres and offering a wide variety of food (mainly canned and packaged goods), personal hygiene products, household cleaners and pet supplies. Discount stores (Ateco 47113): retail area selling wide assortments of goods (not name-brand) focusing on low prices rather than service, displays or variety. Non-specialized stores with non-food predominating Department store and non-specialized store selling computers, peripheral devices, telecoms equipment, consumer electronics (audio and video), electrical household appliances: they both are retail establishments offering a wide range of predominantly non-food consumer goods. Both kinds of stores cover a floor space over 400 square metres and sell a wide range of products such as consumer electronics, household appliances, clothing, furniture and household supplies. Large footprints specialized stores Large footprints specialized store (or category killer store): a specialized a retail outlet offering a wide and deep assortment of products within a specific category, with a sales area exceeding 400 square metres. Category killer stores typically operate under a large-scale distribution model. Small retail store: retail store with a selling surface under 400 square metres. Both specialized stores and nonspecialized stores may fall within this category. Among the latter ones, minimarkets (Ateco 47114), frozen food stores (Ateco 47115) and general stores (Ateco 47199) can be found. E-commerce: electronic selling of goods over the internet network (Ateco 47911). The monthly indices refer to realtime sales transactions that occur as a consumer purchases an item from an online store, which predominantly operates in the e-commerce sector. Web sales performed by retailers that sell primarily in stores do not flow into ecommerce indicators. Non-store retailing: (Ateco 478 and 479. except from 47911) sales taking place outside of fixed retail stores. Nonstore distribution channel includes market stands, mail and catalogue ordering, automated vending, sales representatives and telesales. Value of sales index: the value of sales index measures the retail trade turnover over time at current prices. Volume of sales index: the volume of sales index measures the retail trade turnover over time in volume terms (quantity sold). In order to determine the volume of sales index, the value of sales index is divided by the Harmonised index of consumer price (HICP) to allow removing price effects on turnover. Seasonally adjusted data: seasonally adjusted data refer to the statistical technique designed to remove fluctuations related to seasonal factors (such as weather conditions, administrative measures, etc.) and calendar effects when relevant. Seasonal adjustment provides a clearer view for a trend analysis of a short-term index. Short-term growth rate: short-term growth rate compares a period (typically a month or quarter) with the previous period, measuring the percentage change. Year-on-year growth rate: Y-o-Y growth rate compares a period (typically a month or quarter) with the same period from the previous year, measuring the percentage change. |5 RETAIL TRADE Information objectives and reference regulatory framework The Retail trade index is compiled using data from the monthly survey on retail sales. This survey refers to enterprises whose main economic activity is retail trade (according to the Economic activity classification NACE Rev.2). Enterprises having the sale of car and fuel as main economic activity are excluded from the survey. The legal basis for the STS indicators are the Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European business statistics, repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics (EBS-Regulation) and the Commission Implementing Regulation 2020/1197 laying down technical specifications and arrangements pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 (General Implementing Act). Index base year The base year for time series of Retail trade indicators is 2021. Indicators are calculated with reference to the classification of the economic activity Ateco 2007 (the Italian version of the European classification Nace Rev. 2) The series of monthly indices of retail trade based 2021=100 referring to the period January 2021-December 2023 replace the indices previously disseminated, updating the base year from 2015 to 2021. Time series (data for the period January 2000 – December 2020) have been rescaled to the base 2021, in order to meet users’ needs and for research purposes. Sampling design Retail trade data are collected from a sample of about 8.000 enterprises, resident in Italy. The sample is stratified considering the following variables: ✓ main activity according to the classification Ateco 2007 ✓ enterprise size, identified on the basis of three classes of persons employed (1-5, 6-49 and at least 50). According to the sampling scheme, enterprises with less than 50 persons employed are selected at random, while all the units with 50 or more persons employed are included in the sample. The weighting structure has been updated with reference to the 2021 base year. In particular, the weight of largescale distribution in terms of turnover is 46.2%, while that of small-scale distribution enterprises is 45.5%; the weights for e-commerce and non-store retail trade are 5.0% and 3.3%, respectively. The table below compares the weighting structure based on 2021 with that based on 2015. |6 RETAIL TRADE TABLE 1. WEIGHTING STRUCTURE OF MONTHLY RETAIL SALES INDEX Percentage values Aggregates base 2015 base 2021 48.0 46.4 36.7 33.7 11.6 16.7 5.4 3.0 9.7 1.9 3.7 45.5 46.2 36.5 32.5 8.5 17.5 6.5 4.0 9.7 5.0 3.3 42.2 57.8 8.4 11.9 3.4 4.5 3.3 2.6 1.3 2.1 4.1 3.0 1.9 2.5 8.8 41.2 58.8 8.3 10.0 2.9 4.9 2.6 3.7 1.2 2.2 5.8 3.3 1.6 2.7 9.6 28.4 25.4 46.2 25.0 25.5 49.5 TYPE OF DISTRIBUTION Small scale distribution Large scale distribution -Non-specialised large-scale retail Food predominant - Hypermarkets - Supermarkets - Discount stores Non-food predominant - Large scale specialised stores E-commerce Non-store retailing PRODUCT GROUPING Food products Non-food products Pharmaceuticals and other therapeutic products Clothing Shoes, leather goods and travel items Furniture and textile items and household furnishings Electric household appliances, audio-video equipment Computers and telecommunications equipment Optical instruments and photographic equipment Durable and non-durable household items Household tools and hardware Cosmetic and toilet articles Stationery, books, newspapers and magazines Sporting equipment. games and toys Other goods SIZE OF ENTERPRISES (PERSONS EMPLOYED) 1-5 6- 49 50 or more Value and volume index The retail trade value index is a short-term measure of the changes in the value of sales by Italian retailers. It reflects the effect of both volume and price. In order to estimate sales volumes, value indices are deflated to remove price effects on turnover, using the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). Data revision and seasonal effects Monthly data are revised in the following month after the first publication. The revision is made in order to take into account the additional information from the respondents. Indices are seasonally adjusted through the Tramo-Seats+ procedure. Like other seasonal adjustment procedures. Tramo Seats is based on the hypothesis that monthly or quarterly time series result from unobservable components: ✓ trend-cycle component (long-term and medium-term movements in the data); ✓ seasonal component (periodical short-term movements having a length of no more than one year); ✓ irregular component (unpredictable movements in the data). Tramo-Seats uses a model-based method that is a statistical model that explain the behaviour of the original time |7 RETAIL TRADE series and its components. In particular, food and non-food series are seasonally adjusted and aggregate seasonally adjusted estimates are then be derived. Seasonal adjusted data are revised every month as a consequence of the re-estimation of the seasonal adjustment factors, which are also reviewed annually. The exceptional variations in raw data recorded during the 2020-21 health emergency were handled according to the guidelines issued by Eurostat, available at the URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/10186/10693286/Time_series_treatment_guidance.pdf Territorial breakdown Indices are calculated and disseminated at national level. Timeliness Indices are published on a monthly basis with a delay of approximately 38 days from the end of the reference month. Dissemination Data are issued through press releases, available on the Istat website at http://www.istat.it/en. The series of the updated indices are published on the Istat data warehouse IstatData. For technical and methodological information Romina Ciavardini tel.+39 06 4673.6504 ciavardini@istat.it |8