BUSINESS TENDENCY STATISTICS AND REAL SECTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX DATA GOVERNANCE AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT SURVEYS AND INDICES DIVISION MARCH 2026 Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | March 2026 1 Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) Graph 1. Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) and Seasonally Adjusted RSCI RSCI RSCI-SA 120 101.0 110 100 100.0 90 80 70 60 01.19 01.20 07.20 07.21 01.23 07.24 07.25 07.19 01.21 01.22 07.22 07.23 01.24 01.25 03.26 RSCI = 100: A stable outlook to the economic activity by the real sector agents covered by the Business Tendency Survey. RSCI > 100: An optimistic outlook to the economic activity by the real sector agents covered by the Business Tendency Survey. RSCI < 100: A pessimistic outlook to the economic activity by the real sector agents covered by the Business Tendency Survey. Table 1. Developments in Aggregated Results (*) Last Three Current Next Three Months Months Production Overall Order Books Domestic Order Books Export Order Books Total Employment Average Unit Cost Selling Prices (*) Short arrows indicate monthly changes, while long arrows indicate annual changes. Apart from unit cost and selling prices, navy blue coloured arrows represent increases and red coloured arrows represent decreases. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | March 2026 2 Graph 2. Production, Export Orders and Domestic Orders for the Last Three Months (Balance) Production-last 3 months Domestic orders-last 3 months Export orders-last 3 months 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 01.20 07.20 01.21 07.21 01.23 07.23 01.24 07.24 01.19 07.19 01.22 07.22 01.25 07.25 03.26 Graph 3. Current Total Orders Graph 4. Current Stock of Finished Products (Balance) (Balance) 10 20 0 16 12 -10 8 -20 4 -30 0 -40 -4 -50 -8 -60 -12 01.19 07.19 01.20 07.20 01.21 07.21 01.22 07.22 01.23 07.23 01.24 07.24 01.25 07.25 03.26 01.19 07.19 01.20 07.20 01.21 07.21 01.22 07.22 01.23 07.23 01.24 07.24 01.25 07.25 03.26 Balance: Difference between percentage of “positive” (increased, will increase, more optimistic, above normal, improved) responses and percentage of “negative” (decreased, will decrease, more pessimistic, below normal, deteriorated) responses. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | March 2026 3 Graph 5. Production, Domestic Orders and Graph 6. Fixed Investment Expenditures for the Export Orders for the Next Three Months Next Twelve Months and Total Employment for (Balance) the Next Three Months (Balance) Production-next 3 months Fixed investment expenditures-next 12 months Domestic orders-next 3 months Total employment-next 3 months Export orders-next 3 months 60 40 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 -10 -20 -20 -40 -30 -60 -40 01.19 07.19 01.20 07.20 01.21 07.21 01.22 07.22 01.23 07.23 01.24 07.24 01.25 07.25 03.26 01.19 07.19 01.20 07.20 01.21 07.21 01.22 07.22 01.23 07.23 01.24 07.24 01.25 07.25 03.26 Graph 7. Unit Cost for the Last and Next Three Graph 8. Unit Cost and Selling Prices for the Months (Balance) Next Three Months (Balance) Unit cost-last 3 months Unit cost-next 3 months Selling prices-next 3 months Unit cost-next 3 months 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 01.19 07.19 01.20 07.22 01.23 07.23 01.24 07.24 01.25 07.25 07.20 01.21 07.21 01.22 03.26 01.19 07.19 01.20 07.20 01.21 07.21 01.22 07.22 01.23 07.23 01.24 07.24 01.25 07.25 03.26 Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | March 2026 4 Graph 9. General Course of Business (Balance) 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 07.19 01.20 07.20 01.21 07.21 01.22 07.22 01.23 07.23 01.24 07.24 01.25 07.25 01.19 03.26 The aggregated results of the Business Tendency Statistics computed as weighted averages have been published as part of the "Official Statistics Programme (OSP)" based on the Statistics Law of Türkiye. Starting from May 2007, Business Tendency Survey became a part of the "Joint Harmonized European Union Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys" and has been co-financed by CBRT and the European Commission. Aggregated results and methodological information are available at the web site http://www.tcmb.gov.tr under the menu "Statistics/Tendency Surveys/Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index". In addition, time series data can be reached at “Statistics/Statistical Data (EVDS)/All Series/Expectation and Tendency Surveys/Business Tendency Survey and Real Sector Confidence Index(CBRT)”. The survey results are compiled from the responses of the participants and do not reflect the views or predictions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye. For any views and suggestions: E-mail: iya@tcmb.gov.tr Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | March 2026 5 Business Tendency Survey Aggregated Results (Balance Values) JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER 2025 -2.3 -0.2 -1.7 0.8 5.5 7.7 0.9 2.0 3.7 3.9 8.1 5.0 How has your production developed over the past 3 months? 2026 5.3 5.1 -0.4 2025 -18.8 -16.6 -15.6 -14.2 -16.7 -16.7 -19.1 -19.7 -18.0 -16.0 -11.8 -13.7 Do you consider your current overall order books to be...? 2026 -13.9 -12.1 -15.7 2025 -19.3 -16.2 -16.7 -15.2 -15.6 -16.6 -18.8 -20.2 -16.7 -17.2 -14.0 -15.5 Do you consider your current export order books to be...? 2026 -16.1 -13.7 -18.4 Do you consider your current stok of finished products to 2025 2.0 2.8 0.3 -2.1 3.0 1.2 1.3 -2.1 1.5 -1.2 3.2 0.6 be...? 2026 -0.5 -0.7 1.6 How do you expect your production to develop over the 2025 17.9 15.0 24.0 18.2 17.1 14.3 19.2 16.1 10.7 10.1 8.0 10.0 next 3 months? 2026 11.4 20.4 17.0 How do you expect your selling prices to change over the 2025 48.1 40.7 42.8 43.7 37.4 37.1 40.2 42.7 35.6 35.2 39.1 43.3 next 3 months? 2026 43.4 43.4 49.6 How do you expect your firm's total employment to change 2025 -0.5 3.6 4.3 2.1 3.3 2.1 2.2 0.2 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 1.4 over the next 3 months? 2026 2.6 3.5 2.8 Considering your current order books and the expected 2025 2.6 1.3 0.1 3.2 change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capacity? 2026 3.0 How have your overall orders developed over the past 3 2025 -7.2 -3.7 -0.9 5.3 4.5 0.6 -4.0 0.1 1.2 1.4 4.6 0.8 months? 2026 2.1 3.9 1.2 How do you expect your export orders to develop over the 2025 17.5 21.9 17.7 18.2 13.7 12.5 12.7 12.3 12.2 10.3 11.5 10.0 next 3 months? 2026 7.8 15.6 14.3 Capacity Utilization Rate of Manufacturing Industry. They 2025 74.6 74.5 74.4 74.3 75.0 74.6 74.2 73.5 74.0 74.2 74.4 74.4 will... 2026 74.1 73.5 73.3 How has your competitive position on the domestic market 2025 -5.9 -5.3 -4.0 -6.0 developed over the past 3 months? 2026 -3.0 How has your competitive position on foreign markets 2025 -15.8 -9.6 -10.0 -10.5 inside the EU developed over the past 3 months? 2026 -10.3 How has your competitive position on foreign markets 2025 -13.0 -9.3 -9.5 -9.0 outside the EU developed over the past 3 months? 2026 -8.2 How do you expect your overall orders to develop over the 2025 17.8 19.8 22.9 22.3 15.9 14.4 18.1 17.0 13.5 9.2 7.3 8.6 next 3 months? 2026 13.2 19.9 19.8 How have your export orders developed over the past 3 2025 -9.6 -6.3 -3.6 6.4 4.8 1.7 -0.4 -0.8 -4.6 0.4 2.5 -1.7 months? 2026 -4.0 2.9 -4.1 2025 -17.2 -15.6 -14.5 -16.7 -16.8 -16.8 -19.1 -18.2 -18.9 -14.5 -13.0 -14.7 Do you consider your current domestic order books to be...? 2026 -13.4 -12.9 -12.6 How have your domestic orders developed over the past 3 2025 -6.8 -5.3 -6.3 -6.5 -1.4 0.5 -5.9 -2.6 -2.5 -2.1 2.4 -2.9 months? 2026 2.0 0.0 -3.1 How do you expect your domestic order books to develop 2025 17.5 21.4 24.4 18.5 14.3 13.6 13.9 13.1 10.4 5.5 5.4 6.4 over the next 3 months? 2026 10.7 20.1 16.9 How do you expect your domestic market selling prices to 2025 42.1 39.7 40.1 41.2 33.5 36.2 37.1 39.0 34.7 31.8 32.3 39.6 change over the next 3 months? 2026 42.0 37.6 44.9 Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your 2025 9.3 8.5 7.1 7.9 4.9 5.1 6.0 2.6 6.5 7.5 6.5 5.6 fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months? 2026 7.8 8.5 5.0 How has your average unit cost changed over the past 3 2025 54.5 61.2 62.7 60.8 59.5 57.3 57.8 60.9 58.6 53.9 51.4 47.9 months? 2026 49.6 56.0 62.4 How do you expect your average unit cost to change over 2025 62.8 58.3 56.9 58.2 56.1 54.7 56.8 57.8 55.3 55.6 58.6 58.4 the next 3 months? 2026 61.4 56.0 63.7 What is your expectation for inflation (producer prices) rate 2025 41.2 39.6 38.6 38.9 38.4 37.2 36.8 35.4 34.5 34.3 33.5 33.0 over the next twelve months (as an annual percentage)? 2026 31.0 30.2 31.1 How do you expect the short term Turkish Lira credit 2025 -42.9 -42.6 -47.9 -5.3 6.6 -12.7 -28.9 -36.6 -45.7 -36.0 -39.5 -36.0 interest rate to change over the next three months? 2026 -42.3 -40.2 -9.0 Your opinion about the general course of business in your 2025 -9.2 -7.0 -3.5 -14.0 -12.2 -14.6 -13.7 -8.5 -9.1 -7.6 -9.0 -7.1 industry, compared to previous month. 2026 -5.9 -7.5 -15.2 Note: Weighted aggregated results of Business Tendency Survey are published under http://evds3.tcmb.gov.tr as time-series.