MARCH 6, 202 6

Discussion Points
on “Private
Canaries: The
Value of PrivateSector Data for
U.S. Monetary
Policy Making”
2026 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum
New York
Anna Paulson
President and Chief Executive Officer
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

The views expressed
today are my own and not
necessarily those of the
Federal Reserve System or
the Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC).

Discussion Points on “Private Canaries: The Value of Private-Sector Data for U.S.
Monetary Policy Making”
2026 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum
March 6, 2026
Anna Paulson
President & CEO
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
The full mosaic (Slide 2)
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The U.S. economy is complex — millions of households, workers, firms, and
institutions interacting daily to produce, trade, and consume billions of dollars of
goods and services.
The true state of all of this economic activity exists, but we only observe
fragments. Individual data points are like tiles in a mosaic: the challenge for
policymakers is to assemble the pieces to understand both current economic
conditions and where they might be headed.

Choosing the tiles (Slide 3)
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•

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Tiles represent different data points. They come from a lot of different data
sources. The job of policymakers is to put them all together.
Some of the tilemakers are well established — i.e., the official statistical
agencies. They have long series and are reliable, and it is well understood how
their tiles are made. There are also newer tilemakers — the private sector data
sources.
We can also create tiles, like the Beige Book, regional Federal Reserve Bank
surveys, as well as insights that come from conversations with business and
community contacts. Some of these data are tailored to the important issues of
the day.
Constructing a coherent picture from the available tiles requires experience,
analysis, and judgment. Economic circumstances often dictate which tiles are
most valuable and when.

Beware of shiny objects! (Slide 4)
•

Not every new data point provides useful information.

Result: an incomplete picture (Slide 5)
•

The end result is an incomplete mosaic with many missing pieces, which
represents the economy. Sometimes the mosaic points to a clear picture for
policy, and other times it does not.

Valuable tiles tell us when the picture is changing (Slide 6)
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There have been 12 recessions since 1950. Policy is designed to limit them.
Particularly valuable tiles are those that provide consistent and timely indicators
of turning points in the economy.
Given the low frequency of recessions, longtime series public datasets are
especially valuable here. They provide high-quality, benchmarked, and
historically consistent measures.

The paper through the lens of a mosaicist (Slide 7)
•

Private data and public data are complements, not substitutes. Private data
provide timely and useful information about inflation and employment and can
improve monetary policymaking.

The paper raises a number of questions (Slide 8)
•

The paper raises a number of questions:
1. Do markets and policymakers interpret the same data the same way?
2. Do policymakers use all the relevant data, including private data,
effectively?
3. Do policymakers communicate effectively about the data that are driving
the outlook and policy path?

Do markets and policymakers use the same data in the same way? (Slide 9)
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Policymakers and the market sometimes disagree about where policy is headed.
Two sources of disagreement could be because they are looking at different data
or because they are weighting the same data differently.

Summing up (Slide 10)
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The quality of information from the tiles is more important than the source
(although the source may affect the quality of the information).
Policymakers have an opportunity to improve monetary policy communications
by describing which data are important and why.

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