--- source: Banco Central do Brasil url: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/monetarypolicy/copomstatements/cronologicos document_type: html date_retrieved: 2026-04-29T21:37:00Z period: April 2026 parent_publication: Copom Statement - 278th Meeting indicators_covered: [Interest Rate, Selic rate] --- # Copom reduces the Selic rate to 14.50% p.a. - 278th Meeting - April 2026 **Publication date:** 04/29/2026 The global environment remains uncertain due to the lack of clarity about the duration, extent and consequences of the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, altering global financial conditions. This scenario requires caution from emerging market economies amid heightened volatility of asset and commodities prices. Regarding the domestic scenario, the set of indicators continues to show, as expected, a trajectory of moderation on economic growth, while the labor market still shows signals of resilience. In recent releases, headline inflation and measures of underlying inflation have risen, moving further away from the inflation target. Inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 collected by the Focus survey remained above the inflation target and stand at 4.9% and 4.0%, respectively. Copom's inflation projections for the fourth quarter of 2027, currently the relevant horizon for monetary policy, stand at 3.5% in the reference scenario (Table 1). The risks to inflation, both to the upside and to the downside, remain higher than usual, given the uncertainty regarding the Middle East conflicts. Among the upside risks for the inflation outlook and inflation expectations, it should be emphasized (i) a more prolonged period of deanchoring of inflation expectations, with longer horizons incorporating potential second-round effects stemming from supply constraints in oil and its derivatives; (ii) a stronger-than-expected resilience of services inflation due to a more positive output gap; and (iii) a conjunction of internal and external economic policies with a stronger-than-expected inflationary impact, for example, through a persistently more depreciated currency. Among the downside risks, it should be noted (i) a greater-than-projected deceleration of domestic economic activity, impacting the inflation scenario; (ii) a steeper global slowdown stemming from the trade and oil shocks and the scenario of heightened uncertainty; and (iii) a reduction in commodity prices with disinflationary effects. The Committee continues to monitor how developments of domestic fiscal policy impact monetary policy and financial assets, reinforcing its cautious stance in a scenario of heightened uncertainty. Recent indicators of economic activity show a recovery in comparison to 2025Q4, remaining consistent with a trajectory of deceleration for the full year of 2026, while the current scenario continues to be marked by deanchored inflation expectations, high inflation projections and labor market pressures. The Committee considers the impacts of the Middle East conflicts prospectively, particularly their effects on the global supply chain and commodity prices that directly and indirectly affect inflation in Brazil. Currently, inflation projections for the relevant horizon for the monetary policy present additional distance from the target. At the same time, the uncertainty around those projections has considerably increased, due to the lack of clarity about the duration of the conflicts in the Middle East and their effects on the conditioning variables of the projection models. The Committee deemed it appropriate to proceed with the monetary policy calibration cycle, insofar as the prolonged period of the Selic at a contractionary level provided evidence about monetary policy transmission to the economic deceleration, creating the conditions under which adjustments to the pace of this calibration, in light of new information, can be made so as to ensure convergence to the inflation target. Copom decided to reduce the Selic rate to **14.50% p.a.**, and judges that this decision is consistent with the strategy for inflation convergence to a level around its target, throughout the relevant horizon for monetary policy. Without compromising its fundamental objective of ensuring price stability, this decision also implies smoothing economic fluctuations and fostering full employment. In the current scenario, marked by heightened uncertainty, the Committee reaffirms serenity and cautiousness in the conduction of monetary policy, so that future steps of interest rate calibration can incorporate new information about the depth and duration of the conflicts in the Middle East, as well as their direct and indirect effects over time on the price level. The following members of the Committee voting for this decision: Gabriel Muricca Galípolo (Governor), Ailton de Aquino Santos, Gilneu Francisco Astolfi Vivan, Izabela Moreira Correa, Nilton José Schneider. --- **Verification:** - Selic rate: 14.50% (matches payload actual: 14.5) - Previous rate: 14.75% (matches payload previous: 14.75) - Reference period: April 2026 (278th meeting)