---
source: Central Bank of Brazil (BCB)
url: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/copom/copomminutes/Minutes_277_v4.pdf
document_type: pdf
date_retrieved: 2026-03-24
period: March 2026
parent_publication: Minutes of the 277th Copom Meeting
indicators_covered: [Interest Rate, SELIC, Inflation Projections, GDP Growth]
selic_rate: 14.75%
---

# Minutes of the 277th Meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom)

**Date:** March 17-18, 2026
**Place:** BCB Headquarters, Brasília - DF, Brazil
**Source:** Central Bank of Brazil (BCB)

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## 1. Meeting Details

| Attribute | Details |
| :--- | :--- |
| **Date** | March 17-18, 2026 |
| **Place** | BCB Headquarters’ meeting rooms on the 8th floor (3/17 and 3/18 morning) and 20th floor (3/18 afternoon) – Brasilia – DF – Brazil |
| **Times** | March 17: 10:09 AM – 11:53 AM; 2:14 PM – 5:38 PM<br>March 18: 10:08 AM – 11:22 AM; 2:35 PM – 6:30 PM |

### Attendance (Copom Members)
- **Gabriel Muricca Galípolo** – Governor
- **Ailton de Aquino Santos**
- **Gilneu Francisco Astolfi Vivan**
- **Izabela Moreira Correa**
- **Nilton José Schneider David**
- **Paulo Picchetti**
- **Rodrigo Alves Teixeira**

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## 2. Update of the Economic Outlook and Copom’s Scenario

1. The global environment became more uncertain due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, altering global financial conditions. This scenario requires caution from emerging market economies amid heightened volatility of asset and commodities prices.
2. Regarding the domestic scenario, GDP figures for 2025Q4 confirmed the expected slowdown in economic activity, while the labor market remains resilient.
3. In recent releases, headline inflation and measures of underlying inflation continued to show some improvement but remained above the inflation target. Inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 collected by the Focus survey remained above the inflation target and stand at 4.1% and 3.8%, respectively.

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## 3. Scenarios and Risk Analysis

4. Uncertainty regarding the global environment has increased considerably. In addition to the worsening of geopolitical tensions, new uncertainties regarding U.S. economic policy have contributed to making this environment even more uncertain.
5. Domestic economic activity maintained a trajectory of moderation on growth, as anticipated by the Committee. The Committee reiterates that the aggregate demand slowdown is an essential element of supply-demand rebalancing in the economy and of the convergence of inflation to the target.
6. Preliminary indicators for 2026Q1 point toward a recovery in economic activity compared with the end of 2025, consistent with expectations of positive GDP growth in 2026, albeit smaller than in 2025.
7. The Committee continues to closely monitor the labor market, where the unemployment rate remains at historically low levels and average real income continues to expand more than labor productivity.
8. Fiscal policy has short-term impacts on aggregate demand and structural dimensions affecting debt sustainability perceptions. The Committee reinforces the need for harmonious fiscal and monetary policies.
9. Inflation expectations rose following the onset of conflicts in the Middle East. The Committee assesses that in an environment of deanchored expectations, greater monetary restriction is required for a longer period.
10. Recent readings indicated some slowdown in inflation, driven by a more appreciated exchange rate and benign commodity behavior, although services inflation remains more resilient.
11. **Reference Scenario Assumptions:**
    - Interest rate path from Focus survey.
    - Exchange rate starts at USD/BRL 5.20 (evolving via PPP).
    - Oil prices follow Brent futures curve for six months, then increase by 2% per year.
    - "Yellow" electricity tariff flag assumed for December 2026.
12. **Inflation Projections:** 
    - 2026: 3.9%
    - 2027Q3: 3.3%
13. **Balance of Risks:** Upside risks include prolonged deanchoring of expectations and services inflation resilience. Downside risks include a greater-than-projected deceleration of domestic activity or a steeper global slowdown.

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## 4. Discussion and Monetary Policy Decision

14. Copom discussed the conduct of monetary policy based on projections and the balance of risks.
15. The Committee analyzed options for the pace of the Selic rate calibration cycle, concluding that a 0.25% reduction is most appropriate at this moment. The magnitude and duration of the cycle will be determined over time.
16. **Decision:** **Copom decided to reduce the Selic rate to 14.75% p.a.** This decision is consistent with the strategy for inflation convergence to a level around its target.
17. The Committee reaffirms serenity and cautiousness, incorporating new information about the Middle East conflicts and their effects on price levels.
18. **Vote:** The decision was unanimous among the attending members: Gabriel Muricca Galípolo (Governor), Ailton de Aquino Santos, Gilneu Francisco Astolfi Vivan, Izabela Moreira Correa, Nilton José Schneider David, Paulo Picchetti, and Rodrigo Alves Teixeira.

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## 5. Projections Table

**Table 1: Inflation projections in the reference scenario**
*Year-over-year IPCA change (%)*

| Price Index | 2026 | 2027Q3 |
| :--- | :---: | :---: |
| **IPCA** | **3.9** | **3.3** |
| IPCA market prices | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| IPCA administered prices | 4.3 | 3.2 |

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*End of Minutes*