---
source: Banco Central do Brasil (Central Bank of Brazil)
url: https://static.poder360.com.br/2026/03/boletim-focus-9mar2026.pdf
document_type: pdf
date_retrieved: 2026-03-17
period: March 6, 2026 (released March 9, 2026 at 11:30 UTC)
parent_publication: Focus Market Readout (Relatório de Mercado Focus)
indicators_covered: [IPCA, PIB, SELIC, IGP-M, Câmbio, Investimento Direto, Dívida Pública, Resultado Primário]
---

# Focus Market Readout - March 9, 2026

## Market Expectations for Economic Indicators

The **Focus Market Readout** (Relatório de Mercado Focus) is a weekly publication by the Central Bank of Brazil that surveys expectations from financial institutions, asset managers, and other market participants for Brazil's key economic indicators. This edition, published on Monday, March 9, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC, reflects market forecasts collected as of Friday, March 6, 2026.

The report tracks expectations for inflation, interest rates, economic activity, exchange rates, and public finance indicators across multiple time horizons (current year, 2027, 2028, and beyond). The SELIC rate, Brazil's overnight lending rate and the primary monetary policy instrument of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), is a central focus of market expectations.

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## Annual Expectations (2026-2029)

| Indicator | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029+ |
|-----------|------|------|------|-------|
| **IPCA (Inflation, % change)** | 3.91 | 3.80 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| **PIB Total (GDP, % YoY)** | 1.82 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| **Câmbio (BRL/USD)** | 5.41 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| **Selic (Interest Rate, % p.a.)** | 12.13 | 10.50 | 10.00 | 9.50 |
| **IGP-M (% change)** | 3.19 | 4.00 | 3.83 | 3.73 |
| **IPCA Administrados (% change)** | 3.67 | 3.74 | 3.50 | 3.50 |

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## External Accounts & Public Finances (2026-2029)

| Indicator | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029+ |
|-----------|------|------|------|-------|
| **Conta Corrente (Current Account, US$ billions)** | -67.70 | -65.00 | -64.20 | -64.00 |
| **Balança Comercial (Trade Balance, US$ billions)** | 69.09 | 72.68 | 74.42 | 78.00 |
| **Investimento Direto (FDI, US$ billions)** | 75.00 | 78.50 | 80.00 | 80.00 |
| **Dívida Líquida do Setor Público (% of PIB)** | 70.00 | 73.80 | 76.45 | 78.81 |
| **Resultado Primário (% of PIB)** | -0.50 | -0.43 | -0.26 | -0.10 |
| **Resultado Nominal (% of PIB)** | -8.58 | -8.00 | -7.55 | -7.27 |

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## Monthly Expectations (February - April 2026 + 12M Smoothed)

| Indicator | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 12M Smooth |
|-----------|----------|----------|----------|-----------|
| **IPCA (% change)** | 0.49 | 0.32 | 0.39 | 3.94 |
| **Câmbio (BRL/USD)** | 5.31 | 5.24 | 5.26 | — |
| **Selic (% p.a.)** | — | 14.50 | 14.00 | — |
| **IGP-M (% change)** | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 4.50 |

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## Key Observations

**Inflation Expectations (IPCA):** Market participants expect IPCA inflation of 3.91% for 2026, slightly down from the previous week's 3.97%, with 153 respondents providing estimates over the last 30 days. The 2027 forecast of 3.80% reflects market confidence in inflation convergence toward the BCB's target. February 2026 monthly inflation is expected at 0.49%, with a moderation to 0.32% in March 2026.

**SELIC Interest Rate:** The current market median for SELIC stands at **12.13% per annum for 2026**, up one week. Monthly expectations show 14.50% for March 2026 and 14.00% for April 2026, reflecting analyst views on near-term monetary policy. For 2027, expectations moderate to 10.50%, declining further to 10.00% in 2028 and 9.50% in 2029, suggesting market anticipation of rate cuts as inflation moderates.

**GDP Growth:** Expectations for 2026 GDP growth remain modest at 1.82%, stable over the past two weeks. Growth projections increase slightly to 2.00% for 2028-2029.

**Exchange Rate:** Market expects BRL/USD to stabilize around 5.41 for 2026 after appreciation from 5.50 last week, reflecting a three-week downtrend. The rate is expected to strengthen to 5.50 BRL per USD in 2027 and beyond.

**Trade Balance:** Brazil's trade balance is projected at US$69.09 billion for 2026, supported by continued commodity demand. This is expected to improve to US$72.68 billion in 2027 and US$78.00 billion by 2029.

**Public Debt:** Net public debt as a percentage of GDP is forecast at 70.00% for 2026, up from 70.20% in the previous survey. The trajectory shows an increase to 73.80% in 2027 and 76.45% in 2028, reflecting fiscal pressures. The primary result is expected to worsen to -0.50% of GDP in 2026, with modest improvements by 2029 (-0.10%).

**Survey Participation:** The report reflects responses from 148 respondents for SELIC forecasts, 153 for IPCA, 115 for GDP, and 124 for exchange rate over the last 30 days.

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## Methodology Notes

- **Mediana - Agregado:** Aggregate median across all respondents for each indicator and horizon
- **Há 4 semanas / Há 1 semana / Hoje:** Previous month / previous week / current week medians, allowing trend tracking
- **Comp. (Comportamento):** Behavioral changes in the preceding week, with arrows indicating direction (▲ increase, ▼ decrease, or stability)
- **Resp. (Respondentes):** Number of respondents in the last 30 days (unless otherwise noted)
- **5 dias úteis:** Respondents in the last 5 business days
- Survey conducts respondent collection across a rolling 30-day window to capture time-varying market sentiment

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## Report Characteristics

This Focus report represents a snapshot of market consensus from Brazil's financial community, capturing expectations at a critical juncture for monetary and fiscal policy. The data reveals market participants expect the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) to maintain elevated SELIC rates in the near term (March-April 2026 at 14.50%-14.00% p.a.) before gradual cuts align with moderating inflation expectations. The report's consistent coverage of external balances, public debt dynamics, and fiscal metrics underscores Brazil's ongoing navigation of inflation control alongside external and fiscal sustainability concerns.