---
source: Banco Central do Brasil (Central Bank of Brazil)
url: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/focus/focus/R20260313.pdf
document_type: pdf
date_retrieved: 2026-03-15
release_date: 2026-03-13
period: Weekly market expectations survey, week of March 13, 2026
parent_publication: Focus - Relatório de Mercado (Focus Market Readout)
indicators_covered: [IPCA, PIB Total, Câmbio, Selic, IGP-M, IPCA Administrados, Conta Corrente, Balança Comercial, Investimento Direto, Dívida Líquida, Resultado Primário, Resultado Nominal]
methodology: Median of market expectations from financial institutions surveyed over previous 30 days (or 5 business days as noted)
---

# Focus - Relatório de Mercado
## Expectativas de Mercado

**Data:** 13 de março de 2026

---

## Mediana - Agregado (Aggregated Median Expectations)

### Principais Indicadores Macroeconômicos (Key Macroeconomic Indicators)

| Indicador | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|-----------|------|------|------|------|
| **IPCA (variação %)** | 4.10 ▲ | 3.80 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| **PIB Total (variação % s/ ano anterior)** | 1.83 ▲ | 1.80 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| **Câmbio (R$/US$)** | 5.40 ▼ | 5.47 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| **Selic (% a.a)** | 12.25 ▲ | 10.50 | 10.00 | 9.50 |
| **IGP-M (variação %)** | 3.40 ▲ | 3.44 | 3.80 | 3.83 |
| **IPCA Administrados (variação %)** | 3.85 ▲ | 3.86 | 3.72 | 3.50 |

**Legenda:**
- ▲ = Aumento (Increase)
- ▼ = Diminuição (Decrease)
- Números entre parênteses = número de semanas em que vem ocorrendo o último comportamento (weeks showing current trend)

### Estabilidade (Stability)

#### Conta Externa (External Accounts)

| Indicador | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|-----------|------|------|------|------|
| **Conta corrente (US$ bilhões)** | -67.40 ▲ | -66.00 | -65.00 | -64.05 ▲ |
| **Balança comercial (US$ bilhões)** | 69.56 ▲ | 69.78 | 72.85 ▲ | 74.00 ▼ |
| **Investimento direto no país (US$ bilhões)** | 75.00 | 75.00 | 78.50 | 80.00 |

#### Finanças Públicas (Public Finances)

| Indicador | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|-----------|------|------|------|------|
| **Dívida líquida do setor público (% do PIB)** | 70.00 | 73.80 | 76.43 ▼ | 78.80 ▼ |
| **Resultado primário (% do PIB)** | -0.50 | -0.41 ▲ | -0.26 | -0.10 |
| **Resultado nominal (% do PIB)** | -8.50 ▲ | -8.00 | -7.55 | -7.27 |

---

## Inflação Mensal de Curto Prazo (Short-term Monthly Inflation)

### IPCA Mensal (Monthly IPCA)

| Período | Valor | Mudança Semanal | Respondentes (30d) |
|---------|-------|-----------------|-------------------|
| **mar/2026** | 0.29 ▲ | +1 semana | 147 |
| **abr/2026** | 0.32 | -2 semanas | 149 |
| **mai/2026** | 0.41 ▲ | +1 semana | 148 |

### Câmbio Mensal (Monthly Exchange Rate - R$/US$)

| Período | Valor | Mudança Semanal | Respondentes (30d) |
|---------|-------|-----------------|-------------------|
| **mar/2026** | 5.26 ▼ | -2 semanas | 121 |
| **abr/2026** | 5.25 ▼ | -1 semana | 121 |
| **mai/2026** | 5.26 | -1 semana | 121 |

### Selic Mensal (Monthly Policy Rate - % a.a)

| Período | Valor | Mudança Semanal | Respondentes (30d) |
|---------|-------|-----------------|-------------------|
| **mar/2026** | 14.25 ▲ | +1 semana | 147 |
| **abr/2026** | 14.25 ▲ | +1 semana | 147 |
| **mai/2026** | 14.75 ▲ | +1 semana | 147 |

### IGP-M Mensal (Monthly IGP-M Inflation)

| Período | Valor | Mudança Semanal | Respondentes (30d) |
|---------|-------|-----------------|-------------------|
| **mar/2026** | 3.99 ▲ | (baseline) | 67 |
| **abr/2026** | 4.57 ▲ | +6 semanas | 61 |
| **mai/2026** | 4.61 | (baseline) | 61 |

### Inflação 12 Meses Suavizada (12-Month Smoothed Inflation)

| Período | Valor | Mudança Semanal |
|---------|-------|-----------------|
| **mar/2026** | 3.95 | - |
| **abr/2026** | 4.03 | -2 semanas |
| **mai/2026** | 4.29 ▲ | +1 semana |

---

## Notas Metodológicas (Methodological Notes)

- **Comportamento semanal:** Os valores entre parênteses expressam o número de semanas em que vem ocorrendo o último comportamento de aumento ou diminuição (Weekly behavior: numbers in parentheses express the number of weeks the last behavior of increase or decrease has been occurring)
- **Respondentes nos últimos 30 dias:** Data for longer-term expectations (**)
- **Respondentes nos últimos 5 dias úteis:** Data for more recent expectations (***)
- Todas as projeções são medianas agregadas das respostas de instituições financeiras pesquisadas (All projections are aggregated medians from surveyed financial institutions)

---

## Destaques Principais (Key Highlights)

1. **Selic Rate:** The benchmark interest rate (Selic) is projected at **12.25% annually for 2026**, representing a two-week consecutive increase. This reflects market expectations for the Central Bank's policy stance amid inflation pressures.

2. **IPCA Inflation:** Inflation expectations increased to **4.10% for 2026**, up from 3.91% in the previous week. This remains within the tolerance band relative to the target, but signals upward pressure.

3. **GDP Growth:** GDP growth for 2026 is projected at **1.83%**, a marginal upward revision from 1.82% the prior week.

4. **Exchange Rate:** The Brazilian real is expected to depreciate to **R$ 5.40 per US dollar for 2026**, continuing a downward trend, suggesting market expectations of continued currency pressure.

5. **Fiscal Indicators:** The public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected at **70.00% for 2026**, with the primary result projected at -0.50% of GDP and the nominal result at -8.50% of GDP, reflecting fiscal challenges.

6. **External Accounts:** The current account deficit is projected at -US$ 67.40 billion for 2026, with the trade surplus at US$ 69.56 billion and direct investment inflows at US$ 75.00 billion.

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**Source Document:** Focus Market Readout (Relatório de Mercado) - Weekly survey of market expectations from Brazil's Central Bank (Banco Central do Brasil)