---
source: Banco Central do Brasil
url: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/focus/focusmarketreadout/R20260417.pdf
document_type: pdf
date_retrieved: 2026-04-20
period: "Reference: April 17, 2026; Published: April 20, 2026"
parent_publication: Focus Market Readout
indicators_covered:
  - IPCA
  - GDP
  - Exchange Rate
  - Selic Target
  - IGP-M
  - Regulated Prices
  - Current Account
  - Trade Balance
  - Foreign Direct Investment
  - Net Public Sector Debt
  - Primary Result
  - Nominal Result
---

# Focus Market Readout

## Market Expectations

### Reference: April 17, 2026 | Publication: April 20, 2026

<pre>
                                           Focus Market Readout
                                                               Market Expectations                                                                                                                                                                                  April 17, 2026
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ▲Increase ▼Decrease              Stability

                                                                  2026                                                               2027                                                               2028                                         2029
 Median - Aggregate                                                4 weeks 1 week
                                                                                  Today
                                                                                        Weekly           Resp. 5 working Resp.       4 weeks 1 week
                                                                                                                                                    Today
                                                                                                                                                          Weekly            Resp. 5 working     Resp.   4 weeks    1 week
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Today
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Weekly       Resp.   4 weeks 1 week
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Today
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Weekly         Resp.
                                                                       ago    ago       Trend *             **      days   ***           ago    ago       Trend *              **      days       ***       ago       ago       Trend *         **       ago    ago       Trend *           **
IPCA (%)                                                              4.17      4.71   4.80 ▲ (6)         158         4.85    112        3.80     3.91   3.99 ▲ (4)          151         4.00    108        3.52     3.60   3.60   (2)        119       3.50     3.50   3.50   (33)       114
GDP (% growth)                                                        1.84      1.85   1.86 ▲ (1)         119         1.89     68        1.80     1.80   1.80   (16)         113         1.74     66        2.00     2.00   2.00   (110)       86       2.00     2.00   2.00   (57)        83
Exchange Rate (R$/US$)                                                5.40      5.37   5.30 ▼ (2)         130         5.25     84        5.45     5.40   5.35 ▼ (2)          121         5.35     81        5.50     5.46   5.40 ▼ (2)         88       5.50     5.50   5.45 ▼ (1)         84
Selic Target (% p.a)                                                 12.50    12.50 13.00 ▲ (1)           156       13.00      95      10.50     10.50 11.00 ▲ (1)           150       11.00      90       10.00    10.00 10.00      (13)     112       9.50     9.75   9.88 ▲ (1)        108
IGP-M (%)                                                             3.45      3.86   4.66 ▲ (7)          70         4.81     50        4.00     4.00   4.00       (9)        64        4.00     46        3.85     3.82   3.82     (1)       58       3.74     3.70   3.70   (1)         56
Regulated Prices (%)                                                  4.02      4.87   4.90 ▲ (2)         106         4.90     80        3.77     3.80   3.80       (1)        92        3.80     70        3.50     3.50   3.50     (21)      68       3.50     3.50   3.50   (40)        67
Current Account (US$ billion)                                       -66.80    -64.70 -62.00 ▲ (2)           41     -59.35      22     -64.50    -65.00 -62.50 ▲ (1)            38     -62.00      21      -64.03   -64.05 -64.05  (3)          28     -63.25   -63.25 -63.25  (1)          27
Trade Balance (US$ billion)                                          70.00     70.00 72.65 ▲ (1)            40      73.90      20      73.00     73.10 74.00 ▲ (1)             39      73.70      19       74.00    73.50 73.00 ▼ (1)          29      75.09    74.70 74.83 ▲ (1)          27
Foreign Direct Investment (US$ billion)                              75.00    75.00 75.00         (9)       42      75.00      22      78.50     78.50 78.00 ▼ (1)             41      75.10      21       80.00    80.00 80.00      (10)      32      80.00    80.00 80.00    (10)        30
Net Public Sector Debt (% of GDP)                                    69.90    69.90 69.90         (4)       56      69.90      36      73.80     73.46 73.51 ▲ (1)             54      73.50      35       76.40    76.40 76.37 ▼ (1)          47      78.80    78.82 79.15 ▲ (2)          44
Primary Result (% of GDP)                                            -0.50    -0.50 -0.50         (9)       63      -0.50      39      -0.40     -0.40 -0.40   (4)             59      -0.42      37       -0.26    -0.25 -0.25   (1)          49      -0.10    -0.10 -0.10   (8)          47
Nominal Result (% of GDP)                                            -8.50    -8.50 -8.50         (5)       53      -8.50      32      -8.00     -8.00 -8.00   (8)             50      -8.10      31       -7.55    -7.50 -7.50   (1)          41      -7.27    -7.20 -7.20   (1)          39
* trend since the previous Focus Market Readout; the figures in parenthesis express the number of weeks with the same behavior ** respondents in the last 30 days *** respondents in the last 5 business days

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2026         2027           2028            2029




                                                                                                                                     Focus - Market Readout                                                                                                                               Page 1/2
                                           Focus Market Readout
                                                              Market Expectations                                                                                                                                                                         April 17, 2026
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ▲Increase ▼Decrease         Stability

                                                                  Apr/2026                                                 May/2026                                               Jun/2026                                         Next 12 months, smoothed
 Median - Aggregate                                               4 weeks 1 week
                                                                                 Today
                                                                                       Weekly          Resp. 5 working     4 weeks 1 week
                                                                                                                                          Today
                                                                                                                                                Weekly          Resp. 5 working   4 weeks 1 week
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Today
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Weekly    Resp. 5 working   4 weeks 1 week
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Today
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Weekly    Resp. 5 working
                                                                      ago    ago       Trend *            **      days         ago    ago       Trend *            **      days       ago    ago       Trend *      **      days       ago    ago       Trend *      **      days

IPCA (%)                                                              0.43     0.50 0.66 ▲ (6)           152        0.70       0.30      0.32 0.37 ▲ (2)            151    0.39      0.27    0.28 0.30 ▲ (1)      150       0.30      4.07   4.05 4.11    ▲ (1)    128       4.14
Exchange Rate (R$/US$)                                                5.25     5.25 5.08 ▼ (1)           124        5.04       5.27      5.25 5.11 ▼ (2)            123    5.06      5.30    5.26 5.15 ▼ (2)      123       5.10
Selic Target (% p.a)                                                14.25    14.50 14.50        (3)      155       14.50           -        -     -                                 13.75   14.00 14.25 ▲ (1)     155     14.25
IGP-M (%)                                                             0.36     0.70 1.39 ▲ (6)            66        2.32       0.29      0.32 0.40 ▲ (3)             66    0.42      0.25    0.26 0.26    (2)      66       0.26      4.62   4.66 4.64    ▼ (2)     59       4.67
* trend since the previous Focus Market Readout; the figures in parenthesis express the number of weeks with the same behavior ** respondents in the last 30 days

         Apr/2026            May/2026              Jun/2026                                                                                                                                                                                         Next 12 months, smoothed




                                                                                                                                       Focus - Market Readout                                                                                                                Page 2/2
</pre>