--- source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers url: https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=80561 document_type: pdf date_retrieved: 2026-03-15 period: February 2026 (preliminary) parent_publication: Surveys of Consumers Preliminary Results indicators_covered: [Index of Consumer Sentiment, Current Economic Conditions, Index of Consumer Expectations] notes: "Closest primary-source release available on source domain near event date; March preliminary document containing 55.5/57.8/54.1 was not discoverable via source site endpoints at retrieval time." --- # Surveys of Consumers — Preliminary Results © The University of Michigan, 2026. All rights reserved. Monitoring trends for over 75 years P reliminary results from the February 2026 survey February 6, 2026 Joanne Hsu, PhD, Director Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged, inching up less than one index point from last month and sitting about 20% below January 2025. Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings . On net, modest increases in current personal finances and buying conditions for durables were offset by a small decline in long- run business conditions. W hile sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly increases have been small—well under the margin of error —and the overall level of sentiment remains very low from a historical Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 Prelim Index of Consumer Sentiment 64.7 57.0 52.2 52.2 60.7 61.7 58.2 55.1 53.6 51.0 52.9 56.4 57.3 Current Economic Conditions 65.7 63.8 59.8 58.9 64.8 68.0 61.7 60.4 58.6 51.1 50.4 55.4 58.3 Index of Consumer Expectations 64.0 52.6 47.3 47.9 58.1 57.7 55.9 51.7 50.3 51.0 54.6 57.0 56.6 Index Components Personal Finances - Current 82 74 71 67 78 83 77 76 78 66 68 74 77 Personal Finances - Expected 99 86 78 79 94 91 91 86 82 85 93 95 95 Economic Outlook - 12 Months 73 56 48 50 63 66 61 57 57 56 59 63 64 Economic Outlook - 5 Years 83 66 60 60 74 72 70 62 59 61 64 68 65 Buying Conditions - Durables 86 89 82 83 88 91 80 78 72 64 60 67 72 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Index of Consumer Sentiment Top Tercile of Stock Holdings, 3mma No Stock Holdings, 3mma Wealth Gaps in Sentiment Continue to Widen, Mirroring Trends Seen in 2023 and 2024 perspective. Concerns about the erosion of personal finances from high prices and elevated risk of job loss continue to be widespread. Interviews for this release cover the two-week period that ended this past Monday. Year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 4.0% last month to 3.5 % this month, the lowest reading since January 2025. This month’s reading still exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre- pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations inched up for the second straight month, from 3.3% last month to 3.4% this month. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8% and 3.2% in 2024, and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020. Overall views of labor markets remain considerably weaker than a year ago, though changes from last month are a bit mixed. This month, a substantial 60% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, down a touch from January and the lowest share seen since July 2025. Meanwhile, the expected probability of own job loss climbed to its highest reading since July 2020. Thus, consumers continue to perceive risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate. While views of the economy converged across population subgroups last spring amid announcements of the new tariff regimes, the 10 or so months thereafter have been characterized by a sharp divergence between higher -wealth, higher- income consumers and their lower-wealth, lower-income counterparts. As seen in the chart, sentiment for the largest stockholders is currently nearly 50% higher than May 2025, when national sentiment reached a trough. In contrast, sentiment for non-stockholders fell 6% during this period. These trends are consistent with the fact that asset values have soared, which benefits asset owners but not others. Notably, similar divergent patterns in sentiment were seen in 2023-2024 as well. Sentiment for high and low wealth groups converged in 2022 when post -Covid inflation peaked. In the two years that followed , sentiment for the wealthy soared while it languished for lower-wealth consumers. As such, the K-shape of sentiment seen over the past year is not a new phenomenon. These patterns highlight the ongoing heterogeneity in experiences and expectations for the economy that are obscured by headline aggregate statistics about the economy. Robust aggregate spending is consistent both with strength stemming from the disproportionate share of spending generated by wealthier consumers who are more confident, as well as the fact that less-confident, lower-wealth consumers may be exercising much more care over their spending amid pressures from high prices and weakening income prospects. Top Tercile of Stock Holdings Feb-2026 (monthly) No Stock Holdings Feb-2026 (monthly)