---
source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
url: https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/business_leaders/bls_overview
document_type: pdf
date_retrieved: 2026-03-17
period: March 2026
parent_publication: Business Leaders Survey
indicators_covered: [Business Activity Index, Business Climate Index, Employment Index, Wages Index, Prices Paid Index, Prices Received Index, Capital Spending Index, Supply Availability Index]
---

# Business Leaders Survey: March 2026

**Covering service firms in New York, northern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut**

Note: Survey responses were collected between March 2 and March 9.

---

## Executive Summary

Business activity continued to decline significantly in the region's service sector in March, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Business Leaders Survey. The survey's headline business activity index was little changed at **-22.6**. The business climate index fell five points to **-46.2**, suggesting the business climate remained much worse than normal. Employment fell for a seventh consecutive month. Supply availability worsened. The pace of both input price increases and selling price increases was again little-changed and remained elevated. Looking ahead, firms were less optimistic about the outlook.

---

## Conditions Continue to Deteriorate

Business activity continued to fall substantially in the New York-Northern New Jersey region, according to the March survey. The headline business activity index remained well below zero at **-22.6**. Nineteen percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month while 42 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index fell five points to **-46.2**, with 56 percent of respondents reporting an unfavorable business climate.

The supply availability index dipped three points to **-12.6**, suggesting supply availability worsened.

---

## Employment Contracts

The employment index came in at **-8.5**, its seventh consecutive negative reading, suggesting employment continued to fall. The wages index edged down to **33.7**. The prices paid index held steady at **62.5**, and the prices received index was similar to last month at **28.8**, pointing to little change in the pace of both input and selling price increases.

---

## Firms Only Somewhat Optimistic

The index for future business activity fell five points to **12.7**, signaling that firms expect only a small pickup in activity over the next six months. Employment is expected to grow modestly. Firms' expectations for future price increases picked up significantly, and supply availability is expected to worsen. Firms planned modest increases in capital spending.

---

## Economist Commentary

> "Business activity continued to contract in the New York-Northern New Jersey region's service sector in March. Employment fell for a seventh consecutive month. Firms expect higher prices and only modest improvement in conditions in the months ahead."
> 
> — Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed

---

## Current Indicators

### Business Activity

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Higher (%) | 17.0 | 19.1 | - |
| Lower (%) | 42.7 | 41.7 | - |
| **Index** | **-25.7** | **-22.6** | **+3.1** |

### Business Climate

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Favorable (%) | 10.7 | 10.1 | - |
| Unfavorable (%) | 52.4 | 56.3 | - |
| **Index** | **-41.7** | **-46.2** | **-4.5** |

### Number of Employees

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Higher (%) | 11.7 | 14.1 | - |
| Lower (%) | 21.4 | 22.6 | - |
| **Index** | **-9.7** | **-8.5** | **+1.2** |

### Wages

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Higher (%) | 41.7 | 36.7 | - |
| Lower (%) | 4.4 | 3.0 | - |
| **Index** | **37.4** | **33.7** | **-3.7** |

### Prices Paid

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Higher (%) | 65.0 | 64.5 | - |
| Lower (%) | 2.4 | 2.0 | - |
| **Index** | **62.6** | **62.5** | **-0.1** |

### Prices Received

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Higher (%) | 40.2 | 36.9 | - |
| Lower (%) | 10.3 | 8.1 | - |
| **Index** | **29.9** | **28.8** | **-1.1** |

### Capital Spending

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Higher (%) | 19.1 | 18.7 | - |
| Lower (%) | 27.0 | 21.2 | - |
| **Index** | **-7.8** | **-2.5** | **+5.3** |

### Supply Availability

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Higher (%) | 7.3 | 6.0 | - |
| Lower (%) | 16.5 | 18.6 | - |
| **Index** | **-9.2** | **-12.6** | **-3.4** |

*Note: The current supply availability index was added to the report in June 2024 and included a history of data points going back to 2021.*

---

## Forward-Looking Indicators (Expectations Six Months Ahead)

### Business Activity

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Higher (%) | 40.3 | 38.6 | - |
| Lower (%) | 22.8 | 25.9 | - |
| **Index** | **17.5** | **12.7** | **-4.8** |

### Business Climate

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Better (%) | 26.8 | 26.8 | - |
| Worse (%) | 30.7 | 37.4 | - |
| **Index** | **-3.9** | **-10.6** | **-6.7** |

### Number of Employees

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Higher (%) | 31.4 | 28.7 | - |
| Lower (%) | 15.7 | 13.8 | - |
| **Index** | **15.7** | **14.9** | **-0.8** |

### Wages

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Higher (%) | 41.7 | 44.0 | - |
| Lower (%) | 3.9 | 2.6 | - |
| **Index** | **37.7** | **41.5** | **+3.8** |

### Prices Paid

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Higher (%) | 55.9 | 67.2 | - |
| Lower (%) | 3.4 | 1.5 | - |
| **Index** | **52.5** | **65.6** | **+13.1** |

### Prices Received

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Higher (%) | 35.1 | 39.2 | - |
| Lower (%) | 9.9 | 4.6 | - |
| **Index** | **25.2** | **34.5** | **+9.3** |

### Capital Spending

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Higher (%) | 28.4 | 29.9 | - |
| Lower (%) | 22.4 | 20.1 | - |
| **Index** | **6.0** | **9.8** | **+3.8** |

### Supply Availability

| Indicator | Feb | Mar | Change |
|-----------|-----|-----|--------|
| Higher (%) | 10.7 | 9.0 | - |
| Lower (%) | 14.1 | 23.1 | - |
| **Index** | **-3.4** | **-14.1** | **-10.7** |

*Note: The expected supply availability index was added to the report in June 2024 and included one additional data point from May 2024. The Business Leaders Survey began asking about expected supply availability in May 2024.*

---

## Survey Details

- **Number of Observations:** 200
- **Survey Period:** March 2-9, 2026
- **Release Date:** March 17, 2026 (09:30:08)
- **Geography:** New York State, Northern New Jersey, Southwestern Connecticut
- **Respondent Profile:** Service sector business executives (presidents, CEOs)
- **Frequency:** Monthly (first business day of each month)
- **Baseline Sample:** ~150 business executives; typically ~100 responses received by month-end