---
source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
url: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-04/gdp4q25-3rd.pdf
document_type: pdf
date_retrieved: 2026-04-09
period: Q4 2025
parent_publication: GDP (Third Estimate)
indicators_covered: ["GDP Price Index QoQ", "Core PCE Prices QoQ", "PCE Prices QoQ"]
---

# GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 4th Quarter and Year 2025

**Release Date:** Thursday, April 9, 2026 (Embargoed until 8:30 a.m. EDT)  
**BEA Release:** 26–19

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 4.4 percent.

The third report for the fourth quarter of 2025, originally scheduled for March 27, 2026, was rescheduled due to the October–November 2025 government shutdown.

Real GDP was revised down 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to investment.

## Real GDP and Related Measures

Percent change (SAAR) from 2025:Q3 to 2025:Q4:

| Measure | Advance | Second estimate | Third estimate |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Real GDP | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Current-dollar GDP | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% |
| Real final sales to private domestic purchasers | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Real GDI | … | … | 2.6% |
| Average of real GDP and real GDI | … | … | 1.5% |
| Gross domestic purchases price index | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| PCE price index | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| PCE price index excluding food and energy | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% |

The price index for gross domestic purchases (GDP Deflator) increased 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the second estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.9 percent, and the core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) increased 2.7 percent, both the same as previously estimated.

## Contributions to Real GDP

The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

## Industry Highlights

From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP reflected an increase of 2.3 percent in real value added for private services-producing industries that was partly offset by decreases of 7.8 percent in government and 1.8 percent in private goods-producing industries. The leading industry contributors to the increase in real GDP were wholesale trade, information, and health care and social assistance.

## Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $246.9 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $175.6 billion in the third quarter.

## State Overview

Real GDP increased in 35 states in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the percent change at an annual rate ranging from 3.8 percent in North Dakota to –8.3 percent in the District of Columbia and remaining unchanged in Indiana and Maine.

Current-dollar personal income increased $217.9 billion, or 3.4 percent at an annual rate, in the fourth quarter, with income increasing in 47 states and the District of Columbia.

## Technical Notes

### Sources of revisions to real GDP in the third estimate

Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent (0.1 percent at a quarterly rate) in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to investment. Within investment, the downward revision was led by private inventory investment, particularly wholesale trade, based on updated U.S. Census Bureau inventory data.

### Impact of Maui Wildfire on fourth-quarter 2025 estimates

Estimates of corporate profits in the fourth quarter were reduced by a $7.5 billion settlement (annualized rate) for claims related to the 2023 Maui wildfire. Settlements are recorded in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) on an accrual basis in the quarter when the settlement is finalized.

### Federal government shutdown

Due to a lapse in appropriations, some federal government agencies were closed, and some employees were furloughed from October 1 through November 12, 2025. BEA estimates that the reduction in labor services supplied by federal employees subtracted about 1.0 percentage point from real GDP growth in the fourth quarter.

**Next release:** April 30, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT — GDP (Advance Estimate), 1st Quarter 2026.