---
source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
url: https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260507
document_type: html
date_retrieved: 2026-05-07
period: April 2026
parent_publication: Survey of Consumer Expectations
indicators_covered: [One-Year Inflation Expectations]
---

# Survey of Consumer Expectations, April 2026

**Short-Term Inflation Expectations Increase Further, Longer-Term Expectations Stable**

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the April 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing households’ inflation expectations increased at the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons. The survey was fielded from April 1 through April 30, 2026.

## Inflation

Median inflation expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to **3.6%** at the one-year-ahead horizon. They were unchanged at 3.1% for the three-year-ahead horizon and at 3.0% for the five-year-ahead horizon in April.

The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents increased at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons and decreased at the three-year-ahead horizon. Median inflation uncertainty increased at the one-year-ahead horizon and decreased at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.

Median home price growth expectations decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.0%. Median year-ahead gas price growth expectations dropped sharply by 4.3 percentage points to 5.1%. Commodity price change expectations decreased for food, medical care, college education, and rent.

## Labor Market

Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 2.7%. Mean unemployment expectations increased by 0.4 percentage points to 43.9%, the highest reading since April 2025. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 0.2 percentage point to 14.6%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 18.2%. The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost increased by 0.1 percentage point to 46.0%.

## Household Finance

The median expected growth in household income eased slightly from 2.9% to 2.8%. Median one-year-ahead nominal household spending growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 5.4%. Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated. Expectations for future credit availability also deteriorated. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months receded by 0.9 percentage point to 11.4%.

The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes increased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.4%. Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.2 percentage point to 10.0%. The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased to 26.7%.