---
source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
url: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/empire/empire2026/2026-03-empire-state-manufacturing-survey.pdf
document_type: pdf
date_retrieved: 2026-03-16
period: March 2026
parent_publication: Empire State Manufacturing Survey
indicators_covered: [General Business Conditions, New Orders, Shipments, Unfilled Orders, Delivery Times, Supply Availability, Inventories, Employment, Prices Paid, Prices Received, Capital Expenditures, Future Business Conditions]
---

# Empire State Manufacturing Survey — March 2026

**Survey Period:** March 2–9, 2026  
**Number of Observations:** 102 respondents

## Summary

Manufacturing activity held steady in New York State in March, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline **general business conditions index fell seven points to -0.2**, indicating a shift into contraction territory. The survey revealed mixed signals across activity measures: new orders increased modestly while shipments declined. Firms reported lengthening delivery times and slightly worse supply availability, yet remained optimistic about future conditions and strengthened capital spending plans.

## Economist Commentary

> "Manufacturing activity held steady in New York State in March. Delivery times lengthened and supply availability worsened slightly. Firms remained optimistic about the outlook."  
> — Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed

## Key Indicators — Seasonally Adjusted

### Activity Measures

**General Business Conditions Index: -0.2** (down 7 points)
- Just over 30% of firms reported an increase in activity; the same percentage reported a decrease
- Reading below zero indicates contraction in general business conditions

**New Orders Index: 6.4** (little changed)
- Modest increase in new orders reported

**Shipments Index: -6.9** (down 6 points)
- Shipments declined in March

**Unfilled Orders Index: 10.8** (up 2 points)
- Backlog of orders increased

**Delivery Times Index: 13.7** (up 10 points)
- Delivery times lengthened notably from February

**Supply Availability Index: -3.9** (down 3 points)
- Supply availability was slightly worse than the prior month

**Inventories** (direction indicated)
- Inventories increased in March

### Labor Market

**Employment Index: 5.8** (up 2 points)
- Modest increase in employment levels

**Average Workweek Index: 1.9** (little changed)
- Slight increase in hours worked

### Price Measures

**Prices Paid Index: 36.6** (down 13 points)
- Input price increases moderated significantly but remained elevated
- A decline of 13 points represents meaningful slowdown in cost pressures

**Prices Received Index: 21.4** (little changed)
- Selling price increases held steady
- Firms not passing along full input cost relief to customers

## Forward Expectations

**Future Business Conditions Index: 31.0**
- Firms remained optimistic about conditions in the months ahead

**Expected New Orders and Shipments**
- Expected to increase in the months ahead

**Expected Employment Growth**
- Firms expect employment to grow

**Capital Expenditures Index: 21.6** (up 3 points, multi-year high)
- Capital spending plans strengthened significantly
- Highest reading for capital expenditure intentions in multiple years

## Summary Table — Key Indicators

| Indicator | Current | Change | Interpretation |
|-----------|---------|--------|-----------------|
| General Business Conditions | -0.2 | -7 | Activity flat, slight contraction |
| New Orders | 6.4 | 0 | Modest increase |
| Shipments | -6.9 | -6 | Declining |
| Unfilled Orders | 10.8 | +2 | Building backlog |
| Delivery Times | 13.7 | +10 | Lengthening |
| Supply Availability | -3.9 | -3 | Worsening slightly |
| Employment | 5.8 | +2 | Modest gains |
| Prices Paid | 36.6 | -13 | Input inflation moderating |
| Prices Received | 21.4 | 0 | Selling prices steady |
| Future Conditions | 31.0 | — | Optimistic outlook |
| Capital Expenditures | 21.6 | +3 | Multi-year high |

## Context & Methodology

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey gathers responses from approximately 200 manufacturers in New York State. Respondents report changes in 11 key indicators including general business activity, new orders, shipments, inventories, number of employees, delivery times, and capital expenditure compared to the previous month, along with expected directions for the following six months.

A **diffusion index reading above zero** indicates manufacturing activity is expanding; **below zero indicates contraction**. The March reading of **-0.2** marks a shift from February's +7.1, suggesting weaker momentum despite firms' positive forward guidance.

**Distribution of Responses — March 2026:**

| Category | General Business | Prices Paid | Prices Received | Supply Availability | Capital Expenditures |
|----------|-----------------|-------------|-----------------|---------------------|---------------------|
| Percent Higher | 30.4 | 57.6 | 40.3 | 26.1 | 15.2 |
| Percent Lower | 30.4 | 43.1 | 32.4 | 22.2 | 10.8 |
| Diffusion Index | -0.2 | 36.6 | 21.4 | -3.9 | 21.6 |

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**Source:** Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, March 2026  
**Data Seasonally Adjusted**  
*Note: The expected supply availability index was added to the report in June 2024. The technology spending index was discontinued as of that date.*