--- source: S&P Global source_document: Raison Weekly Economic Update (March 9–15, 2026) url: https://raison.app/news/analytics/march-9-15-2026-weekly-economic-update document_type: Economic data release summary date_retrieved: 2026-03-17 period: February 2026 parent_publication: S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicators_covered: - Services PMI (Business Activity Index) - Manufacturing PMI - Composite PMI --- # S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) — February 2026 ## Release Summary The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for February 2026 was released on March 4, 2026, providing comprehensive data on private sector business activity across manufacturing and services in the United States and international markets. ## United States Business Activity Index (PMI) — February 2026 ### Services Sector: 51.7 (Previous: 52.7) The U.S. Services PMI Business Activity Index registered **51.7** in February 2026, down from **52.7** in January 2026. A reading above 50 indicates expansion compared to the previous month, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. **Forecast:** The services sector PMI had been forecast at 52.3, making the actual result slightly weaker than anticipated. **Interpretation:** The services sector continues to expand, recording its 20th consecutive month of expansion above the 50 threshold. However, the month-over-month decline of 1.0 points indicates that service sector growth has moderated from the previous month's pace. This moderation reflects softer customer demand and broader economic headwinds, including winter weather disruptions and the escalating Middle East conflict during the survey period. ### Manufacturing Sector: 51.2 (Previous: 52.4) The U.S. Manufacturing PMI registered **51.2** in February 2026, down from **52.4** in January 2026. Manufacturing also remains in expansion territory but at a slower pace than the previous month. ### S&P Global Composite PMI: 51.9 (Previous: 53.0) Combining manufacturing and services activity, the S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI registered **51.9** in February 2026, down from **53.0** in January 2026. The forecast had anticipated 52.3. **Context:** The overall composite decline reflects weakness across both major sectors, indicating a broader deceleration in U.S. private sector economic activity. The slowdown aligns with Q4 2025 GDP data showing annualized growth of only 0.7%, down sharply from Q3's 4.4% pace. --- ## International Services PMI — February 2026 ### Eurozone Services PMI: 51.9 (Previous: 51.8) In the Eurozone, the Services PMI registered **51.9** in February 2026, up marginally from **51.8** in January. The Eurozone services sector maintains steady expansion, supported by rising new business intakes and improving sales pipelines across domestic markets. ### United Kingdom Services PMI: 53.9 (February 2026) The UK Services PMI Business Activity Index registered **53.9** in February 2026, recording the tenth consecutive month of growth in the services sector. Growth was supported by rising new business intakes and improving sales pipelines, particularly in domestic markets. However, survey respondents noted hiring freezes and non-replacement of voluntary leavers due to reduced business requirements and elevated cost pressures. --- ## China Non-Manufacturing PMI — February 2026 ### Non-Manufacturing Sector: 49.5 (Previous: 49.4) China's Non-Manufacturing PMI registered **49.5** in February 2026, remaining in contraction territory, though stabilizing slightly from **49.4** in January. ### Manufacturing Sector: 49.0 (Previous: 49.3) China's Manufacturing PMI declined to **49.0** in February 2026 from **49.3** in January, indicating contraction in manufacturing activity. ### Composite PMI: 49.5 (Previous: 49.8) China's overall economic activity index shows contraction, though the Chinese government continues to provide targeted fiscal support and stimulus measures focused on exports and domestic demand recovery. --- ## Key Economic Context — February 2026 ### U.S. Labor Market - **Unemployment Rate (February):** 4.3% (down from 4.4% in January) - **Non-Farm Payroll Employment Change:** +130,000 (revised up from +48,000 in January) - **Private Sector Payroll Change:** +172,000 (revised from −64,000) - **Average Hourly Earnings (y/y):** 3.7% (down from 3.8%) - **Job Openings (JOLTS):** 6.542 million (down from 6.928 million) ### U.S. Inflation - **Consumer Price Index (CPI):** - Month-over-month: +0.3% (previous: +0.2%) - Year-over-year: 2.4% (previous: 2.4%) - **Core CPI:** - Month-over-month: +0.2% (previous: +0.3%) - Year-over-year: 2.5% (previous: 2.5%) ### U.S. GDP - **Q4 2025 Annualized GDP Growth:** 0.7% (revised second estimate) - **Q3 2025 Annualized GDP Growth:** 4.4% - **Components Showing Decline:** Exports, consumer spending, government expenditure, and investment all declined in Q4 --- ## Purchasing Managers' Index Methodology The PMI is a composite index compiled by S&P Global from questionnaires sent to procurement managers at approximately 400 service sector companies (and separate manufacturing panels). The survey tracks: - **Business Activity / Output** (the headline component) - **New Business / Orders** - **Employment** - **Inventories / Stocks** - **Supplier Deliveries** - **Prices** **Scale:** The index ranges from 0 to 100, with: - **Above 50:** Indicates expansion relative to the previous month - **Below 50:** Indicates contraction relative to the previous month - **50:** No change from the previous month The **Services Business Activity Index** is a diffusion index specifically tracking changes in the volume of business activity compared to one month previously. It is comparable to the Manufacturing Output Index. --- ## Market Implications ### Monetary Policy Expectations In response to weak GDP growth and moderating services activity, financial markets have adjusted Federal Reserve interest rate expectations downward. As of March 2026, market expectations (FedWatch) indicate: - **Probability of Unchanged Rates (March 18 Meeting):** 99.21% - **Expected Rate Cuts Over Next 12 Months:** One 0.25% cut, bringing the target range to 3.25–3.50% - **Timing:** Expected December 2026, consistent with the December 2025 FOMC guidance However, inflation has not yet reached the Fed's 2% target, creating uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts. ### Global Economic Context The February PMI data were collected before the major escalation of Middle East tensions (Israel/U.S. conflict with Iran), which began over the weekend prior to the March 4 release. Oil prices subsequently rose sharply from $77.90 to $92.35 per barrel during the week of March 2–6, with further increases following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. --- ## Data Quality and Limitations - **Subscription Data:** S&P Global's full PMI datasets, including all sub-indices and historical revisions, are available only through subscription access at pmi.spglobal.com. - **Preliminary Nature:** The composite figures presented here reflect preliminary releases. Later revisions may occur when flash estimates are reconciled with final data. - **Survey Timing:** The February PMI survey was conducted early in the month and reflects business conditions prior to the major Middle East escalation, which occurred after data collection concluded. --- ## Next Release The flash PMI for March 2026 is scheduled for release around mid-March 2026, with a forecast of **52.8** (services PMI), compared to the February final reading of 51.7. The final March composite PMI is scheduled for release on March 24, 2026, at 06:45 UTC, with a forecast of 51.9.