--- source: National Federation of Independent Business url: https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/new-small-business-optimism-fell-in-march-survey/ document_type: html date_retrieved: 2026-04-14 period: March 2026 parent_publication: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index indicators_covered: [Small Business Optimism Index] --- # NFIB Small Business Optimism Index — March 2026 **Release Date:** April 14, 2026 | **Source:** NFIB --- WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 14, 2026) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, leaving it below its 52-year average of 98.0. The last time the Optimism Index fell below its historical average was April 2025. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points from February to 92, well above its historical average of 68. > *"The 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners. However, the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers."* > > — **Bill Dunkelberg**, NFIB Chief Economist --- ## Key Findings - **Positive profit trends** fell 11 points to a net negative 25% (seasonally adjusted), contributing the most to the Optimism Index’s decline. - **Business condition expectations** fell 7 points to a net 11% (seasonally adjusted), the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since October 2024. - **Employment Index** declined from 103.5 to 101.6. While down 1.9 points, it remains above both the 2025 average (101.2) and the historical average (100). - **Planned capital outlays** dropped 2 points to 16% (seasonally adjusted), the lowest level since November 2009. - **Actual price increases** picked up: net 25% of owners raised average selling prices (seasonally adjusted), well above historical average. - **Planned price increases** fell 4 points to a net 24% (seasonally adjusted), the lowest since July 2024. - **Supply chain disruptions** affected 62% of small businesses in March, up 3 points from February. --- ## Detailed Survey Results ### Employment & Compensation - A seasonally adjusted net 33% of owners reported raising compensation in March, down 1 point from February. - A seasonally adjusted net 18% plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down 4 points and the lowest reading since July 2025. - 32% of owners reported job openings they could not fill, down 1 point; unfilled openings remain above the historical average of 24%. - A net 12% plan to create new jobs in the next three months, unchanged from February. ### Sales & Inventory - A net negative 5% of owners reported higher nominal sales in the past three months (down 6 points), ending four consecutive months of improvement. - A net negative 5% of owners plan inventory investment in the coming months (down 3 points), the lowest level since May 2024. - The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains fell 3 points to a net negative 6% (seasonally adjusted). ### Profit Trends - Net negative 25% reported positive profit trends (down 11 points). - Among owners reporting lower profits: 32% blamed weaker sales, 19% cited usual seasonal change, 11% cited price changes, 10% cited rising material costs, 7% cited labor costs. - Among owners reporting higher profits: 53% cited sales volume, 12% cited usual seasonal change, 9% cited labor costs, 9% cited price changes. ### Credit & Borrowing - The net percent of owners reporting it is a good time to expand fell 4 points to 11% (seasonally adjusted), falling below its historical average for the first time in six months. - 24% of owners reported borrowing regularly, down 1 point and a historically weak reading. - Average interest rate on short-maturity loans was 7.9% in March, down 0.3 points. ### Business Conditions & Problems - Nineteen percent of owners cited **taxes** as their single most important problem (unchanged, top issue). - Fifteen percent cited **labor quality** as their single most important problem (unchanged, second). - Fourteen percent cited **inflation** as their single most important problem (up 2 points, third). --- ## Context The March 2026 survey was conducted against a backdrop of rising energy prices following the U.S.-Israel conflict in Iran, which contributed to heightened uncertainty and reduced optimism among small business owners. The Optimism Index reading of 95.8 represents a significant drop from February’s 98.8 and marks the first time below the 52-year historical average (98.0) since April 2025. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components reflecting small business owners’ views on the economy, hiring, capital spending, and business conditions. --- *Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), April 14, 2026. Data derived from the NFIB Research Center’s monthly Small Business Economic Trends (SBET) survey.*