---
source: European Central Bank
url: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr260428_1~eddb480492.en.html
document_type: html
date_retrieved: 2026-04-28
period: March 2026
parent_publication: ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
indicators_covered: [Inflation Perceptions, Inflation Expectations (1y, 3y, 5y), Income Growth Expectations, Spending Growth Expectations, Economic Growth Expectations, Unemployment Rate Expectations, Home Price Expectations, Mortgage Rate Expectations]
---

# ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results — March 2026

Press release published 28 April 2026. Covers the March 2026 survey wave (fieldwork: 5–30 March 2026). Results are for the euro area, based on a monthly online survey of approximately 19,000 adult consumers from 11 countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland.

**Key changes versus February 2026:**

* Median perceived inflation over the past 12 months rose to **3.5%** (from 3.0%).
* Median inflation expectations increased significantly:
  * Next 12 months: **4.0%** (from 2.5%)
  * Three years ahead: **3.0%** (from 2.5%)
  * Five years ahead: **2.4%** (from 2.3%)
* Uncertainty around 12‑month inflation expectations increased.
* Income growth expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged at **1.2%**.
* Spending growth expectations over the next 12 months rose to **4.1%** (from 3.5%), the highest level since May 2023.
* Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became more negative, falling to **−2.1%** (from −0.9%).
* Unemployment rate expectations 12 months ahead increased to **11.3%** (from 10.8%).
* Home price growth expectations for the next 12 months rose to **3.7%** (from 3.6%).
* Mortgage interest rate expectations 12 months ahead increased to **4.9%** (from 4.7%).

## Inflation perceptions and expectations

* **Perceived inflation (past 12 months):** 3.5% vs 3.0% in February.
* **Expected inflation (next 12 months):** 4.0% vs 2.5% in February.
* **Expected inflation (three years ahead):** 3.0% vs 2.5% in February.
* **Expected inflation (five years ahead):** 2.4% vs 2.3% in February.

Uncertainty about 12‑month inflation expectations increased. Lower‑income quintiles reported slightly higher inflation perceptions and short‑term expectations than higher‑income quintiles, consistent with trends since 2023. Younger respondents (aged 18–34) continued to report lower perceptions and expectations than older groups (35–54, 55–70).

Full results: [Inflation results](https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/CES/CES.M.Z18.ALL.T.C1020.NUM_VAR.WM)

## Income and consumption

* **Nominal income growth expectations (next 12 months):** unchanged at 1.2%.
* **Perceived nominal spending growth (past 12 months):** 5.1% vs 4.6% in February.
* **Expected nominal spending growth (next 12 months):** 4.1% vs 3.5% in February.

Respondents in the lowest three income quintiles expected slightly higher spending growth than those in the highest two quintiles.

Full results: [Income and consumption results](https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/CES/CES.M.Z18.ALL.T.C6120.NUM_VAR.WA)

## Economic growth and labour market

* **Economic growth expectations (next 12 months):** −2.1% vs −0.9% in February (more negative).
* **Unemployment rate expectations (12 months ahead):** 11.3% vs 10.8% in February.

Lower‑income households expected the highest unemployment rate ahead (13.7%), while higher‑income households expected the lowest (9.7%). Respondents continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be slightly higher than the perceived current rate (10.6%), broadly indicating a stable labour market outlook.

Full results: [Economic growth and labour market results](https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/CES/CES.M.Z18.ALL.T.C4020.NUM_VAR.WA)

## Housing and credit access

* **Home price growth expectations (next 12 months):** 3.7% vs 3.6% in February.
* **Mortgage interest rate expectations (12 months ahead):** 4.9% vs 4.7% in February.

As in previous months, the lowest income quintile expected higher home price growth (3.9%) than the highest quintile (3.6%). Lower‑income households expected higher mortgage rates (5.5%) than higher‑income households (4.3%).

The net percentage of households reporting a tightening of credit access over the past 12 months increased, reaching a level last seen in April 2024. The net percentage expecting tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months rose to the highest level since January 2024.

Full results: [Housing and credit access results](https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/CES/CES.M.Z18.ALL.T.C5111.NUM_VAR.WA)

## Notes

* **Fieldwork period:** 5–30 March 2026.
* **Aggregate statistics:** Unless otherwise indicated, figures refer to the 2% winsorised mean. Guide: [PDF – ECB Consumer Expectations Survey – Guide to the computation of aggregate statistics](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/shared/pdf/CES_aggregate_statistics_guide.en.pdf)
* **Survey coverage:** Monthly online survey of around 19,000 adult consumers (aged 18+) from 11 euro area countries. Results are used for policy analysis and complement other ECB data sources.
* **Microdata:** Available on the [ECB Data Portal](https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/CES?dataset%5B0%5D=Consumer%20Expectation%20Survey%20%28CES%29&advFilterDataset%5B0%5D=Consumer%20Expectation%20Survey%20%28CES%29) and on the [CES web page](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/consumer_exp_survey/html/index.en.html).
* **Next release:** CES results for April 2026 are scheduled for 1 June 2026.
* **Disclaimer:** These survey results do not represent the views of the ECB's decision‑making bodies or staff.

---
**Verification check:** Title matches ("ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – March 2026"), domain is ecb.europa.eu, body length is well above 2,000 characters, indicator values (4.0% next 12 months, 3.5% perceived, etc.) are present in extracted text.