--- source: Cabinet Office (内閣府経済社会総合研究所) url: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/stat/shouhi/honbun.pdf document_type: pdf date_retrieved: 2026-03-17 period: February 2026 parent_publication: Consumer Confidence Survey (消費動向調査) indicators_covered: [Consumer Attitude Index, Livelihood Outlook, Income Growth Expectations, Employment Environment, Durable Goods Purchasing Sentiment, Asset Value Expectations, Price Outlook] release_date: 2026-03-04 country: Japan --- # Consumer Confidence Survey, February 2026 ## Survey Overview **Survey Designation:** Consumer Confidence Survey (消費動向調査) — February 2026 Implementation Results **Release Date:** March 4, 2026 **Administering Agency:** Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan ### Survey Objective The survey aims to assess consumer sentiment regarding livelihood outlook, income growth expectations, employment conditions, and intentions to purchase durable goods. It also captures price expectations and the ownership status of major durable consumer goods, providing foundational data for business cycle judgments. ### Survey Scope and Respondents - **Target Population:** Approximately 54.11 million households nationally (2020 Census), excluding foreign nationals, students, and institutional residents - **Sample Size:** 8,400 households (5,376 multi-person households; 3,024 single-person households) - **Sample Design:** Three-stage stratified random sampling (municipality → enumeration block → household) - **Rotation:** Households surveyed for 15 months continuously; replaced by new households. Sample divided into 15 groups of ~560 households each, rotating monthly entry. ### Implementation - **Frequency:** Monthly - **Method:** Mail and online combined survey (郵送・オンライン併用調査法) since October 2018 - **Survey Reference Date:** February 15, 2026 - **Valid Responses:** 6,356 households (75.7% response rate) - Multi-person households: 4,112 (76.5%) - Single-person households: 2,244 (74.2%) --- ## Survey Results Overview ### 1. Consumer Sentiment (Multi-person households, seasonally adjusted) #### Consumer Attitude Index **The Consumer Attitude Index rose 2.1 points month-on-month to 40.0 in February 2026.** The Consumer Attitude Index, a composite of four sentiment indicators, increased from 37.9 in January to 40.0 in February, marking the highest level in over nine months. #### Component Indicators (Month-on-Month Change) | Indicator | February 2026 | Change from January | |-----------|---------------|-------------------| | **Consumer Attitude Index** | **40.0** | **+2.1** | | Livelihood Outlook (暮らし向き) | 39.7 | +2.9 | | Income Growth Expectations (収入の増え方) | 42.5 | +0.5 | | Employment Environment (雇用環境) | 44.0 | +1.6 | | Durable Goods Purchasing Sentiment (耐久消費財の買い時判断) | 33.9 | +3.5 | | Asset Value Expectations (資産価値) [non-component] | 49.2 | +1.5 | ### Detailed Sentiment Breakdown All four component indices rose in February 2026: - **Livelihood Outlook** increased 2.9 points to 39.7, reflecting improved expectations for household living conditions over the next six months. - **Income Growth Expectations** rose 0.5 points to 42.5, indicating modest optimism about wage progression. - **Employment Environment** improved 1.6 points to 44.0, showing confidence in labor market stability and job availability. - **Durable Goods Purchasing Sentiment** surged 3.5 points to 33.9, the largest gain among components, signaling enhanced willingness to make major purchases. - **Asset Value Expectations** (tracked separately but not averaged into the index) climbed 1.5 points to 49.2, reflecting expectations of rising asset values. ### Historical Context The February Consumer Attitude Index of 40.0 represents a significant rebound from the April 2025 trough of 31.2. Steady recovery occurred through mid-year (peaking at 34.8 in June), followed by consolidation in autumn and a strong upturn in late 2025 and early 2026. The latest reading marks the highest level since May 2024. --- ## Consumer Awareness Indicators — Detailed Distribution (February 2026, Multi-person households, unadjusted) ### Response Distribution by Category #### Livelihood Outlook - Good: 0.9% - Somewhat good: 10.3% - Unchanged: 47.8% - Somewhat bad: 28.8% - Bad: 12.2% - **Index Score: 39.8** #### Income Growth Expectations - Growing: 0.6% - Somewhat growing: 8.6% - Unchanged: 61.1% - Somewhat declining: 18.0% - Declining: 11.6% - **Index Score: 42.2** #### Employment Environment - Good: 0.7% - Somewhat good: 11.0% - Unchanged: 59.4% - Somewhat bad: 21.0% - Bad: 7.9% - **Index Score: 43.9** #### Durable Goods Purchasing Sentiment - Good: 0.3% - Somewhat good: 6.6% - Unchanged: 36.1% - Somewhat bad: 43.0% - Bad: 14.0% - **Index Score: 34.0** #### Asset Value Expectations - Increasing: 2.0% - Somewhat increasing: 21.4% - Unchanged: 55.4% - Somewhat decreasing: 14.6% - Decreasing: 6.6% - **Index Score: 49.4** --- ## 2. Price Outlook (Multi-person households, unadjusted) ### One-Year-Ahead Price Expectations In February 2026, respondents' expectations regarding price levels one year forward showed significant shifts: **Largest Single Category:** "Up 5% or more" at **36.5%** (down 5.7 percentage points from January) ### Detailed Breakdown (February 2026) | Expectation | Percentage | |-------------|-----------| | **Down 10% or more** | 0.7% | | Down 5% to <10% | 1.9% | | Down 2% to <5% | 3.5% | | **Down (Total)** | **6.1%** | | Around 0% (Unchanged) | 6.1% | | **Up (Total)** | **85.6%** | | Up <2% | 14.2% | | Up 2% to <5% | 34.9% | | Up 5% to <10% | 36.5% | | Up 10% or more | — | | Don't know | 2.2% | ### Month-on-Month Change From January to February 2026: - Expectations of **price decline** increased 3.0 percentage points (to 6.1%) - Expectations of **unchanged prices** rose 1.9 percentage points (to 6.1%) - Expectations of **price increase** fell 5.7 percentage points (to 85.6%) **Key Finding:** Despite the downward revision in peak inflation expectations, the overwhelming majority (85.6%) still anticipates price increases over the next 12 months, with the modal expectation remaining 5% or greater inflation. --- ## Historical Trends ### Consumer Attitude Index Progression | Period | Index | Monthly Change | |--------|-------|-----------------| | June 2025 | 34.8 | — | | July 2025 | 33.9 | −0.9 | | August 2025 | 34.8 | +0.9 | | September 2025 | 35.4 | +0.6 | | October 2025 | 35.8 | +0.4 | | November 2025 | 37.5 | +1.7 | | December 2025 | 37.2 | −0.3 | | January 2026 | 37.9 | +0.7 | | **February 2026** | **40.0** | **+2.1** | The index has recovered 8.8 points (27.3%) from its April 2025 nadir of 31.2, with an accelerating pace of improvement beginning in late 2025. ### Price Expectations Historical Trend Consumers expecting price increases ≥5% have moderated from peaks: - November 2024: 55.3% - May 2025: 47.5% - December 2025: 43.7% - January 2026: 43.7% - **February 2026: 36.5%** This represents a notable 7.2 percentage point decline in one month, suggesting a recent downward revision in inflation expectations, possibly reflecting recent softness in consumer prices or stabilization of the yen. --- ## Methodology Notes ### Sentiment Index Construction Consumer sentiment indicators are calculated from five-point Likert-scale responses: 1. **Point Values Assigned:** - "Good" / "Growing" / "Increasing": +1.0 - "Somewhat good" / "Somewhat growing" / "Somewhat increasing": +0.75 - "Unchanged": +0.5 - "Somewhat bad" / "Somewhat declining" / "Somewhat decreasing": +0.25 - "Bad" / "Declining" / "Decreasing": 0 2. **Index Formula:** - Multiply each point value by its response percentage - Sum across all categories - Result is the indicator score (0–100 scale) 3. **Consumer Attitude Index:** - Simple average of four component indicators: - Livelihood outlook - Income growth expectations - Employment environment - Durable goods purchasing sentiment - Asset value expectations tracked separately, not included in the index ### Seasonal Adjustment - **Method:** Census Bureau X-12-ARIMA procedure - **Update Frequency:** Retroactive revision conducted at March 2026 release - **Data Period:** Only data from April 2013 onward (mail/online survey era) subjected to seasonal adjustment --- ## Survey History and Methodological Changes The Consumer Confidence Survey traces its origins to the 1957 Consumer Demand Forecast Survey. Major revisions: - **April 2004:** Unified three separate surveys; shifted to monthly frequency; introduced quantitative price expectations - **April 2013:** Transitioned from interviewer-administered to mail survey; increased sample from 6,720 to 8,400 households - **October 2018:** Shifted to mail + online combined survey format - **March 2025:** Enabled new household first-month online responses; updated durable goods items (removed video cameras and fax machines; added smart TVs, e-bikes, eco-cars) --- ## Data Quality and Coverage - **Reference Data:** All results presented are for **multi-person households only** (二人以上世帯) - **Single-Person and Total Household Data:** Available separately on e-Stat (government statistics portal): https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/files?page=1&toukei=00100405&tstat=000001014549 - **Item Response Variation:** Differing items may have slightly varying numbers of responding households due to non-response patterns; figures above reflect the item with the highest response count --- ## Statistical Contact **Economic and Social Research Institute** Cabinet Office, Government of Japan Business Statistics Department, Business Cycle Statistics Section For inquiries: 03-6257-1628 (dial-in) **Survey Implementation Contractor:** New Information Center (一般社団法人新情報センター) Toll-free: 0120-78-5231 Business hours: 9:00–18:00 weekdays **Official Website:** https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/stat/shouhi/menu_shouhi.html --- ## Document Details - **Original Language:** Japanese (with English headings and summary) - **Format:** PDF (742 KB) - **Pages:** 17 (including survey questionnaire, detailed time series tables, methodological notes) - **Table of Contents:** Survey overview, results summary, consumer sentiment details, price expectations, time-series tables, methodological notes, survey history, regional distribution, prefectural household allocation, survey questionnaire