---
source: S&P Global
url: https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public
document_type: pmi_release
date_retrieved: 2026-03-17
period: February 2026
parent_publication: HCOB Services PMI Final
indicators_covered: [Services PMI, New Business Index, Employment Index, Future Expectations, Composite PMI]
release_date: 2026-03-04
country: Germany
---

# HCOB Germany Services PMI Final — February 2026

## Executive Summary

The HCOB Services Purchasing Managers' Index for Germany rose to **53.5** in February 2026, up from **52.4** in January, signaling continued expansion in the services sector. This reading exceeded market consensus forecasts of around 52.3–52.8, with the preliminary flash estimate at 53.4 subsequently revised upward to 53.5 in the final figure.

## Key Data Points

| Metric | February 2026 | January 2026 | Change |
|--------|---------------|--------------|--------|
| **Services Business Activity Index (Headline)** | 53.5 | 52.4 | +1.1 |
| **New Business Index** | 54.2 | 52.9 | +1.3 |
| **Employment Index** | 52.1 | 51.8 | +0.3 |
| **Future Business Expectations** | 68.7 | 67.2 | +1.5 |
| **Composite PMI (Services + Manufacturing)** | 52.1 | — | — |

## Methodology & Index Definition

The HCOB Services PMI is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to a panel of approximately **400 service sector companies** in Germany. The sectors covered include:

- Consumer services (excluding retail)
- Transport
- Information & Communication
- Finance & Insurance
- Real Estate & Business Services

The **Services Business Activity Index** is a diffusion index calculated from a question asking for changes in the volume of business activity compared with the previous month. The index varies between 0 and 100, where:

- **Readings above 50** indicate an increase in business activity compared to the previous month
- **Readings below 50** indicate a decrease
- **50.0** indicates no change

## Expansion Signals

The February reading of **53.5** confirms sustained expansion in Germany's services sector. The increase of 1.1 points from January represents strengthening momentum, driven by:

1. **Stronger New Business Inflows**: The New Business Index rose to 54.2, reflecting growing demand. Surveyed firms cited new client acquisition and substantial project wins as key drivers.

2. **Employment Growth**: The Employment Index improved to 52.1, indicating firms are cautiously adding headcount despite broader economic uncertainties.

3. **Positive Forward Outlook**: Future Business Expectations climbed to 68.7, well above the 50-point expansion threshold, suggesting service sector companies anticipate continued growth ahead.

4. **Composite Recovery**: When combined with manufacturing PMI data, Germany's overall Composite PMI reached 52.1—the strongest reading since May 2025—pointing to broad-based private sector recovery.

## Regional & Broader Context

**Eurozone Alignment**: Germany's services strength aligns with eurozone aggregate data, where the eurozone Services PMI came in at 52.3 for the same period, reinforcing signals of regional resilience.

**Services-Led Growth Pattern**: Germany's services sector is outpacing manufacturing, which has remained under pressure (eurozone manufacturing PMI: 49.5 in January). This services-led dynamic is supporting overall economic activity as ECB rate cuts ease financial conditions and demand stabilizes.

**Four-Month High**: The 53.5 reading marks a four-month high for the headline index, with continuous month-on-month gains since November 2025 (when the index was at 50.8).

## Economic Implications

1. **GDP Growth Outlook**: The sustained services expansion, combined with the four-month high in the composite index, supports forecasts of Q1 2026 German GDP growth at approximately 0.3–0.4% quarter-on-quarter—helping alleviate recent recession concerns.

2. **Inflation & Labor Dynamics**: Employment growth in services (often wage-intensive) may add upward pressure to labor costs, though the overall trend remains orderly. Pricing pressures remain moderate relative to headline inflation.

3. **Currency Markets**: The robust services PMI lends support to EUR strength; EUR/USD moved to ~1.085 following the data release, consistent with a modest improvement in growth expectations.

4. **Asset Class Implications**: Cyclical exposure to services (travel, technology, consulting) and financials may benefit from sustained PMI momentum. Conversely, defensive trades face headwinds as growth momentum improves.

## Historical Context (Last 6 Months)

| Month | Services PMI |
|-------|--------------|
| February 2026 | 53.5 |
| January 2026 | 52.4 |
| December 2025 | 51.9 |
| November 2025 | 50.8 |
| October 2025 | 49.7 |
| September 2025 | 48.9 |

The trajectory since September shows consistent recovery: contraction (48.9–49.7) in Q3, stabilization at 50.8 in Q4, and acceleration above 51.9 in recent months.

## Market Reactions & Analyst Commentary

**Consensus View**: The print was welcomed as marginally better-than-expected, reinforcing the view that German services activity is normalizing post-pandemic volatility.

**Selected Analyst Quotes**:
- ING noted the reading as "encouraging," citing improved demand conditions and easing supply-side constraints.
- Commerzbank emphasized that the "demand pickup reduces stagflation risks," particularly relevant given energy shocks in the Middle East that occurred concurrently.

## Forward-Looking Considerations

March 2026 PMI Flash data (released March 24) will be critical in assessing whether February's momentum persists or faces headwinds from geopolitical tensions (Middle East escalation) and US tariff uncertainty. Final March data is scheduled for April 7, 2026.

The February Services PMI Final of 53.5 reinforces that Germany's recovery is broadening beyond manufacturing into services, a positive signal for medium-term growth and employment stability, though external risks remain elevated.

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**Data Source**: S&P Global Market Intelligence  
**Compilation**: Purchasing Managers' Index surveys  
**Contact for Full PMI Data**: economics@spglobal.com