--- source: S&P Global / HCOB url: https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public document_type: composite (trading-economics aggregation + multiple press sources) date_retrieved: 2026-03-17 period: February 2026 release_date: 2026-03-04 parent_publication: HCOB Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicators_covered: [Services Business Activity Index, New Orders, Employment, Output, Input Costs, Output Prices] countries: [France] --- # HCOB France Services PMI — Final, February 2026 ## Headline Figure | Indicator | February 2026 | January 2026 | Change | Assessment | |-----------|---------------|-------------|--------|------------| | **France Services PMI** | **49.6** | 48.4 | +1.2 | Contraction (below 50) | | **France Composite PMI** | 49.9 | 49.1 | +0.8 | Stagnant activity | | **France Manufacturing PMI** | 50.1 | 51.2 | -1.1 | Modest expansion | **Key Finding:** France's services sector contracted for the second consecutive month in February 2026, though the pace of decline moderated. The Services PMI of 49.6 beat expectations of 49.2 and rose from January's 48.4 (revised up from flash 47.9), but remained below the 50-point no-change threshold, signaling contraction. --- ## Overview: Methodology & Context The HCOB Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to a panel of approximately **400 service sector companies** in France. The index covers the following sectors: - **Consumer services** (excluding retail) - **Transport** - **Information and communication** - **Finance and insurance** - **Real estate** - **Business services** ### Index Interpretation The **Services Business Activity Index** is a diffusion index calculated from monthly change questions: - **Above 50** = Overall increase in business activity vs. previous month (expansion) - **50** = No change - **Below 50** = Overall decrease in business activity (contraction) The index varies between 0 and 100. The headline figure (49.6 for February) is comparable to the Manufacturing Output Index and is the key indicator of sector health. --- ## February 2026 Performance Details ### Services Business Activity France's services sector experienced a **continued contraction**, though at a **slower pace** than January. The increase from 48.4 to 49.6 (+1.2 points) represented a recovery, but the sector remained firmly below expansion territory. **Underlying drivers of the contraction:** 1. **Demand Weakness**: Harsh winter weather and project delays weighed on activity. International demand deteriorated, with new orders posting their sharpest fall in three months from overseas customers. 2. **Domestic Uncertainty**: Persistent economic uncertainty affected client spending and investment decisions, keeping activity subdued despite improved mood indicators. 3. **Backlogs**: Backlogs decreased at one of the steepest rates in 12 months, reflecting weak incoming demand and suggesting limited near-term activity rebound. ### Employment & Hiring Trends Despite weak headline activity, **firms added staff for the second consecutive month**, with employment growth reaching a **four-month high**. This positive signal reflected: - **Forward-Looking Optimism**: Managers expressed stronger 12-month business outlooks, citing plans for increased investment in 2026. - **Staffing for Growth Initiatives**: Some hiring for new service offerings and expected market recovery, despite current weak demand. ### Costs & Pricing 1. **Input Costs**: Continued to rise, driven by higher product prices and wage increases. Pressures moderated slightly from prior months. 2. **Output Prices**: Output prices accelerated to their **highest rate since November 2024**. Companies passed increased costs through to clients, indicating pricing power despite weak activity. --- ## Eurozone & International Context The France services contraction contrasted sharply with broader eurozone momentum: | Region | Services PMI (Feb 2026) | Status | |--------|------------------------|--------| | **France** | 49.6 | Contraction (2nd month) | | **Eurozone (composite)** | 51.9 | Expansion | | **Germany** | (stronger momentum) | Expansion | France's **underperformance** positioned it as the weakest major eurozone economy in February, facing headwinds from higher borrowing costs and subdued consumer sentiment that did not affect other neighbors as severely. ### Manufacturing Offset France's manufacturing sector provided a partial offset with the HCOB Manufacturing PMI at 50.1 in February: - **Expansion signal** (above 50) - **Driven by**: Solid demand in autos and aerospace - **Beat flash estimate** of 49.9 However, the services-led weakness meant overall **French composite PMI remained at 49.9** — just below the no-change threshold — indicating virtually flat private sector output. --- ## 12-Month Outlook & Forward Guidance ### Business Confidence Managers expressed **stronger optimism** about the coming 12 months: - Plans for increased capital investment in 2026 - Expectations of more supportive business conditions - Hiring signals suggest belief in demand recovery ### Risks & Caveats - **Short-term uncertainty** continues to constrain current decisions - **Persistent weakness** in new orders suggests near-term activity risks remain - **Eurozone divergence** creates challenges for exporters if growth remains uneven --- ## Data Comparability & Caveats **Note on Coverage**: This report represents **only a limited sample** of PMI headline data, as displayed on Trading Economics and financial platforms under license from S&P Global. **Full historical and sub-index data** (e.g., new orders index, employment index, cost indicators, and detailed regional breakdowns) are available on subscription from S&P Global. For complete datasets, contact **economics@spglobal.com**. --- ## Release Information - **Publication Date**: 4 March 2026 (08:50 UTC) - **Data Period**: February 2026 - **Frequency**: Monthly (released first Wednesday of following month) - **Flash Estimate**: 49.6 (released ~24 March, matched final) - **Final Release**: 49.6 (matched flash) --- ## Consensus & Surprise - **Market Consensus (Ex-Ante)**: 49.2 - **Actual (Final)**: 49.6 - **Surprise**: +0.4 points (positive beat) The final figure matched the flash estimate released earlier in the month, indicating no revisions were needed from preliminary polling. --- ## Sources & Attribution - **Primary Source**: S&P Global (via HCOB — Hamburg Commercial Bank — licensing) - **Data Aggregation**: Trading Economics, Financial News Services (Nasdaq, Investing.com, Global Banking and Finance Review) - **Commentary**: Junior economist commentary from HCOB/S&P Global noted persistent uncertainty affecting investment decisions despite improved forward-looking sentiment. --- ## Analyst Context The February 2026 France Services PMI underscores a **bifurcated recovery** within the eurozone: - **Laggard status**: France's services contraction amidst eurozone expansion signals sector-specific or demand-specific weakness. - **Weather & seasonal factors**: Harsh February weather may provide some temporary context; March data will be critical to assess if momentum returns. - **Wage inflation risk**: Accelerating output prices at 12-month highs coupled with wage-driven input cost pressure suggest companies maintain pricing power but face squeeze from labor costs. - **ECB rate sensitivity**: Higher borrowing costs may be disproportionately affecting discretionary services spending vs. manufacturing demand (which benefits from autos/aerospace inventory rebuilds). Recovery hinges on **demand stabilization**, particularly from international clients and discretionary services categories affected by economic uncertainty. --- *Report prepared from S&P Global HCOB PMI data released 4 March 2026. Data compiled from ~400 French service sector companies. Last update: 17 March 2026.*