---
source: Westpac Banking Corporation, Melbourne Institute
url: https://library.westpaciq.com.au/content/dam/public/westpaciq/secure/economics/documents/aus/2026/03/er20260310BullConsumerSentiment.pdf
alternate_url: https://www.westpaciq.com.au/economics/2026/03/consumer-sentiment-march-2026.html
document_type: pdf
date_retrieved: 2026-03-16
period: March 2026
parent_publication: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Bulletin
indicators_covered: [Consumer Confidence, Consumer Confidence MoM]
---

# WESTPAC-MI CONSUMER SENTIMENT BULLETIN — 10 March 2026

10 March 2026

WESTPAC-MI CONSUMER
SENTIMENT BULLETIN
Latest insights on the Australian consumer

## Key points

Consumer
SentimentIndex
Index
Consumer Sentiment

• Westpac–Melbourne Institute
Consumer Sentiment edges up
1.2% to 91.6.

130

• Daily responses show a material
weakening over the survey week.
• Less pessimism on current finances
and attitudes towards major
purchases.
• On the economy: more unease
near-term but less concern about
medium-term.
• Unemployment expectations push
above average, led by over-45s.
• Tension between bullish house
price views and weak homebuyer
sentiment.

index

index

130

120

120

110

110

100

100

90

90

80

80
Sources: Westpac Economics, Melbourne Institute

70
Mar-10

Mar-14

Mar-18

70
Mar-22

Mar-26

“The Westpac–Melbourne Institute
Consumer Sentiment Index edged
1.2% higher to 91.6 in March from
90.5 in February.”

the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The results ultimately achieved may differ substantially from these forecasts.

WESTPAC ECONOMICS

1

BULLETIN

Sentiment up a tick despite rising concerns about economy
Matthew Hassan
Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment
Index edged 1.2% higher to 91.6 in March from 90.5 in
February.
While consumers remain firmly pessimistic, sentiment
continues to show some resilience. The relatively muted
negative response to the RBA’s 25bp rate hike in February has
been followed by a slight improvement in March. However,
daily responses point to a material weakening over the course
of the survey week, likely reflecting growing concerns about
the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Responses from
those surveyed in the last three days were consistent with an
index read of just 84.
The component detail shows improvements in current
conditions and medium-term expectations for the economy
were partially offset by worsening expectations for the year
ahead. Recall that the Index is a composite measure based on
five sub-indexes: one tracking assessments of family finances
compared to a year ago; two tracking expectations for family
finances and the economy over the next year; one tracking
expectations for the economy over the next five years; and one
tracking responses to whether now is a good time to buy a
major household item.
Both of the components tracking ‘current conditions’ posted
partial recoveries from their February declines. The ‘time
to buy a major item’ sub-index, which has been particularly
sensitive to ‘cost-of-living’ issues, rose 4.9% in March to 98,
leaving it just a touch below both the 99 posted at the start
of the year and the ‘neutral’ level of 100 (where ‘optimists’
exactly balance ‘pessimists’). Assessments of current finances
also lifted a little, the ‘family finances vs a year ago’ sub-index
ticking up 1.8% to 80.2.
Expectations were more mixed.
On the positive side, consumers were more constructive
about the economy’s medium term prospects, the ‘economy,
next 5 years’ sub-index lifting 2.4% to 96.3, to be essentially
unchanged since January and above the average historical read of
92.2. Consumers were also relatively sanguine about their near
term financial outlook, the ‘family finances, next 12 months’ subindex only ticking down very slightly by 0.1% to 97.6.
However, the near-term outlook for the economy is looking
shakier. The ‘economy, next 12 months’ sub-index recorded a
2.9% fall in March, dropping to 85.9, the weakest read since
September 2024 and below the long run average of 90.7.
Putting it all together: consumers are seeing a slight
improvement in current conditions but expect a softening

economy to be a headwind this year before things improve
again medium term.
Much of that view centres on the outlook for interest rates.
Consumers’ rate rise fears actually eased a touch in March. The
Westpac-Melbourne Institute Mortgage Rate Expectations
Index, which tracks consumer expectations for variable mortgage
rates over the next 12 months, declined 3.9% to 170.5 in March,
giving back about a quarter of the surge seen in February.
However, there remains a strong consensus view that interest
rates will rise further from here – over 75% of consumers expect
mortgage rates to increase over the next 12 months.
Responses to additional questions on news recall show other
headwinds may also be starting to form. These questions are
run once a quarter and ask consumers if they recall news items
on a range of topics and whether the news was favourable or
unfavourable. Responses in March show a notably higher level
of recall with the news on nearly all topics assessed as more
unfavourable than back in December.

“... a material weakening over the
course of the survey week, likely
reflecting growing concerns about
the escalating conflict in the
Middle East.”
Responses show the escalating conflict in the Middle East is
sparking concerns. Recall rates on ‘international news’ doubled
compared to December with assessments deteriorating
sharply. Nearly 90% of consumers seeing the news from
abroad as unfavourable compared to 74% three months ago.
The March readings are very similar to those seen when Russia
invaded Ukraine in early 2022.
Unsurprisingly, news on ‘interest rates’ and ‘inflation’ was
also more prominent and assessed as less favourable than in
December.
Perhaps more surprisingly, ‘budget and taxation’ news had
the highest recall rate across all topics, with just over half
of consumers remembering news on this topic. This is the
highest in over a decade, 10pts above the level seen during
the introduction of the ‘stage 3’ income tax cuts in 2024. This
news was assessed as marginally more unfavourable than in

the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The results ultimately achieved may differ substantially from these forecasts.

WESTPAC ECONOMICS

2

BULLETIN
December as were all other topics except news on ‘politics’
which was seen as slightly less unfavourable.
Consumers were less confident about the labour market
outlook. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Unemployment
Expectations Index rose 3.8% to 134.7 (recall that higher reads
on this index mean more consumers expect unemployment to
rise over the year ahead). The sub-group detail here shows a
significant age divide with a sharper weakening amongst those
aged over 45 (+7.8% to 142.6) but a material improvement
amongst 18-24 year olds (–5.7% to 128.3).
Consumer sentiment towards housing softened slightly in
March.
The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index declined a further 1.3% to
a new cycle low just over 15% below the most recent peak in
August last year. At 82.9, the latest read is more than 36pts
below the long-run average of 120. Sentiment weakened
sharply amongst households with a mortgage, dropping 16%
to just 73. In contrast, assessments of ‘time to buy a dwelling’
posted a 10% rise amongst renters to 80 and was largely
unchanged at a somewhat firmer 94 amongst those that own
their home without a mortgage.
Across geographies, homebuyer sentiment fell more materially
in Queensland (–5% to 76) and to an exceptionally weak
level in Western Australia (–15% 65), the continued strong
price growth in these markets again weighing heavily on
affordability. Interestingly, buyer sentiment posted a solid
14% rebound in regional areas and is now slightly less
pessimistic than sentiment across metro areas.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of House Price
Expectations dipped 1.7% to 171, off slightly from what was
a fifteen-year high in February. Across states, expectations

converged. States where the Index stood above 180 in
February saw the largest index declines in March: –5% in
Queensland, –6% in South Australia and –8% in Western
Australia. Conversely, Victoria, which has had more subdued
price expectations in recent months, posted a 5% rise to 168.
Consumer savings attitudes continue to show a clear aversion
to risk. Responses to our quarterly question on the ‘wisest
place for savings’ show ‘safe options’ are still generally
favoured, with 22% nominating ‘pay down debt’ and 28%
nominating ‘bank deposits’. Amongst the ‘riskier’ options,
consumers were less inclined towards ‘real estate’ (9.2%
down from 10.7% in December), still relatively uninterested
in ‘shares’ (9.2%) but may be starting to seek out other
options. Some 6.4% nominated ‘other’ – the highest read since
December 2015. This catch-all category captures a wide range
of items including the likes of Bitcoin and gold.”
The Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Board next meets on
March 16–17. While we continue to expect that the most
likely timing for the next rate rise is May, a hike is likely to be
on the table for discussion at the March meeting. Domestic
developments have been mixed: growth coming in above the
RBA’s expectations in 2025 but with some better news on
supply capacity and the latest sentiment survey suggesting
momentum is cooling across the consumer sector. However,
the global backdrop has become much more unsettled. The
conflict in the Middle East has impacted energy supplies and
is casting major doubts over the outlook for growth. The RBA
will be wary about how an associated spike in petrol prices
feeds into inflation locally but will also be wary about making
policy changes in the midst of a rapidly evolving and uncertain
situation. On balance we believe it will opt to leave rates
unchanged in March with the next rate rise coming a little
later, once the dust has settled a bit, in May.



Consumer Sentiment – March 2026
avg*

Mar 2024

Mar 2025

Feb 2026

Mar 2026

%mth

%yr

Consumer Sentiment Index

100.3

84.4

95.9

90.5

91.6

1.2

–4.5

Family finances vs a year ago
Family finances next 12mths
Economic conditions next 12mths
Economic conditions next 5yrs
Time to buy a major household item

87.9
106.6
90.7
92.2
123.4

65.2
93.8
84.9
94.0
84.2

76.7
108.3
96.0
101.5
97.1

78.8
97.7
88.5
94.1
93.5

80.2
97.6
85.9
96.3
98.0

1.8
–0.1
–2.9
2.4
4.9

4.6
–9.9
–10.5
–5.1
1.0

Time to buy a dwelling

119.5

77.8

91.6

84.0

82.9

–1.3

–9.5

Unemployment Expectations Index

129.2

128.1

117.9

129.8

134.7

3.8

14.3

House Price Expectations Index

129.4

161.1

146.5

173.9

171.0

–1.7

16.7

Interest Rate Expectations Index

140.6

120.9

88.2

177.5

170.5

–3.9

93.4

Source: Westpac–Melbourne Institute.
*avg over full history of the survey, all indexes except ‘time to buy a dwelling’, ‘unemployment expectations’ and ‘house price expectations’ are seasonally adjusted
The survey is conducted by OZINFO & DYNATA. Respondents are selected at random. This latest survey is based on 1200 adults aged 18 years and over, across Australia. It was conducted in the week
from 2 March to 6 March. The data have been weighted to reflect Australia’s population distribution. Copyright at all times remains with the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.

the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The results ultimately achieved may differ substantially from these forecasts.

WESTPAC ECONOMICS

3

Corporate Directory
Westpac Economics / Australia

Westpac Economics / New Zealand

Sydney
Level 19, 275 Kent Street
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Auckland
Takutai on the Square
Level 8, 16 Takutai Square
Auckland, New Zealand

E: economics@westpac.com.au

E: economics@westpac.co.nz

Luci Ellis
Chief Economist Westpac Group
E: luci.ellis@westpac.com.au

Kelly Eckhold
Chief Economist NZ
E: kelly.eckhold@westpac.co.nz

Matthew Hassan
Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting
E: mhassan@westpac.com.au

Michael Gordon
Senior Economist
E: michael.gordon@westpac.co.nz

Elliot Clarke
Head of International Economics
E: eclarke@westpac.com.au

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Senior Economist
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Head of Business and Industry Economics
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Senior Economist
E: satish.ranchhod@westpac.co.nz

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Senior Economist
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Industry Economist
E: paul.clarke@westpac.co.nz

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Senior Economist
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Westpac Economics / Fiji

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Senior Economist
E: mantas.vanagas@westpac.com.au
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Economist
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1 Thomson Street
Suva, Fiji
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Senior Economist
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Economist
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Economist
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6