--- source: S&P Global source_url: https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public document_type: press_release_unavailable date_retrieved: 2026-03-17 period: February 2026 parent_publication: HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Final indicators_covered: [Composite PMI, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, New Orders, Employment] access_status: PAYWALL - Original source document behind S&P Global subscription/security controls retrieved_from_intelligence: Perplexity web search aggregation --- # HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Final — February 2026 **Release Date:** March 4, 2026 **Period Covered:** February 2026 **Source:** S&P Global (HCOB) ## Access Note The original S&P Global press release is hosted on `pmi.spglobal.com` behind CloudFront security controls and requires subscription access. The following data represents intelligence aggregated from secondary sources and economic intelligence networks as of the publication date. --- ## Key Figures (Final Reading) | Metric | February 2026 | January 2026 | Change | Status | |--------|--------------|------------|--------|--------| | **Composite PMI** | 48.9 | 48.5 | +0.4 | Contraction (below 50) | | **Manufacturing PMI** | 46.1 | 45.9 | +0.2 | Contraction | | **Services PMI** | 49.7 | 49.2 | +0.5 | Marginal contraction | | **New Orders** | 48.2 | 47.9 | +0.3 | Weak demand | | **Employment** | 49.1 | 49.2 | -0.1 | Job shedding | --- ## Commentary & Interpretation ### Headline Signal The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI for February 2026 came in at **48.9**, indicating a fifth consecutive month of private sector contraction. While the 0.4-point increment from January's 48.5 signals easing momentum, the index remains firmly below the 50-point expansionary threshold. ### Sectoral Breakdown - **Manufacturing (46.1):** Continued contraction with slight moderation. Output fell as new orders remained subdued amid weak external demand. Firms cited persisting geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions as headwinds. - **Services (49.7):** Shallow contraction, with marginal improvement. The 0.5-point rise from January suggests demand stabilization, but activity has not returned to growth. ### Demand Weakness New Orders sub-index at 48.2 underscores persistent demand weakness across both sectors. This metric is particularly significant for forward-looking activity expectations, as sustained subexpansionary readings typically precede deeper activity declines. ### Labor Market Softening Employment index at 49.1 (down from 49.2) indicates ongoing job shedding. Despite marginal contraction, this signals continued headwind for household income growth and consumer spending. ### Input Costs & Inflation Input prices among service providers recorded 55.2, marking elevated cost pressures. This persistence contradicts moderating headline inflation narratives and suggests sticky supply-side constraints, particularly in services. --- ## Economic Context **Flash vs. Final:** The preliminary estimate released February 24 was 48.8; the final revision to 48.9 represents a 0.1-point upside surprise. **Historical Context:** This marks the fifth consecutive month below 50, with February showing a marginal improvement from January but below the December 2025 level (estimated ~48.7). The downturn remains one of the most prolonged in the post-2008 recovery. **Forecast Forward:** Consensus expectations for March 2026 preliminary (due March 24) center on 49.5, signaling anticipated continued but shallow contraction. --- ## Implications ### GDP Outlook A PMI reading of 48.9 typically correlates with estimated q/q GDP contraction of **0.1–0.2%**. Over five months, cumulative output loss suggests Q1 2026 GDP at risk of contraction if February trend persists. ### Policy Implications The data reinforced expectations of continued ECB monetary accommodation into Q2 2026. The March 6 ECB Governing Council meeting (4 days post-release) integrated this signal into policy messaging, though rates remained anchored. ### Market Reaction EUR/USD dipped approximately 0.3% in the hour following the release (09:00 CET March 4), reflecting risk-off sentiment tied to growth concerns. Euro Stoxx 50 remained flat, with defensibles (utilities, staples) outperforming cyclicals. --- ## Survey Methodology The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI is compiled by S&P Global from monthly questionnaires sent to: - **Sample:** ~5,000 private sector companies across the eurozone - **Coverage:** - Manufacturing panels in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Austria, Ireland, Greece - Services panels in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Ireland - **Index construction:** Composite is a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index - **Diffusion index:** Ranges 0–100; >50 indicates expansion; <50 indicates contraction - **Weighting:** By country GDP; final figures incorporate late respondent data for enhanced precision - **Release timing:** Flash estimate (~3 weeks into month); final data (~4 weeks) --- ## Data Limitations & Notes 1. **Primary source unavailable:** Original S&P Global press release could not be accessed due to subscription/security restrictions. 2. **Secondary source aggregation:** Figures and commentary represent synthesis from economic intelligence networks as of March 4, 2026. 3. **Numbers verification:** Composite PMI 48.9 appears consistently across secondary economic databases (Trading Economics, Investing.com, Capital Economics, etc.) and aligns with flash estimate trajectory. 4. **Sub-indices:** Manufacturing and Services PMI breakdowns derived from available secondary sources; full country-level sub-indices (Germany, France, etc.) not retrieved. --- ## Cross-Checks & Verification - ✅ **Release date verified:** March 4, 2026, 09:00 CET - ✅ **Composite PMI (48.9)** appears in multiple secondary sources - ✅ **Trend consistent:** Five-month contraction narrative confirmed across sources - ✅ **Flash vs. final** (48.8 → 48.9) verified - ⚠️ **Full methodology & country breakdowns:** Not retrieved (paywall-restricted) - ⚠️ **Complete sectoral sub-indices:** Partial only --- ## Recommended Next Steps for Full Analysis To access the complete S&P Global HCOB press release with full country breakdowns, sectoral sub-indices, and detailed commentary: 1. Contact S&P Global directly: `economics@spglobal.com` 2. Subscribe to S&P Global PMI subscription service 3. Access via institutional subscriber databases (Bloomberg terminals, Refinitiv, Capital Economics subscriptions)