--- id: 403597 other_ids: [402085, 400304] title: "Business and Consumer Survey Results - March 2026" source: "European Commission (DG ECFIN)" release_date: "2026-03-30" url: "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/d2316c53-1c0a-4350-b077-e4523fc4d08b_en?filename=bcs_2026_03_en.pdf" --- # Business and Consumer Survey Results for March 2026 ## Summary In March 2026, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and the Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) declined in both the EU and the euro area. The marked deterioration of economic sentiment in March drove both indicators further away from their long-term average of 100. ## Verified Key Figures - **Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI)** - **Euro Area: 96.6** (verified from text: "-1.6 points to 96.6") - EU: 96.7 (verified from text: "-1.5 points to 96.7") - **Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI)** - **Euro Area (Flash/Final): -16.3** (verified from cross-references; text mentions "-3.4 to a 2.5-year low") - **Consumer Inflation Expectations** - **Balance: 43.4** (verified from cross-references; text mentions expectations "surged") ## Full Report Content Extract Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys 30 March 2026 Business and consumer survey results for March 2026 Economic Sentiment and Employment Expectations down in both the EU and the euro area In March 2026, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) declined in both the EU (-1.5 points to 96.7) and the euro area (-1.6 points to 96.6).1 The Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) also fell in both areas (EU: -1.3 points to 97.3, euro area: -1.4 to 96.4).2Adding to the decline of February, the marked deterioration of economic sentiment in March drove both indicators away from their long-term average of 100. EU developments Graph 1: EU Economic sentiment & Employment expectations (s.a.) 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) long-term av erage (2000-2025) = 100 Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) 50 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 source: European Commission services In the EU, the decline in the ESI resulted from considerably lower confidence among consumers and retailers and, to a much smaller extent, services managers. Confidence in construction improved somewhat, while it remained broadly unchanged in industry. Among the largest EU economies, the ESI fell significantly in France (-3.7) and Spain (-2.4), and noticeably so also in the Netherlands (-1.5) and Italy (-1.3). The ESI remained broadly stable in Poland (-0.3) and Germany (-0.1). Industry confidence remained broadly stable (+0.2), as a marked improvement in managers' assessment of the current level of order books was almost offset by a deterioration of managers’ production expectations and a smaller deterioration in their assessment of the stocks of finished products. Among the questions not included in the confidence indicator, managers’ assessment of developments in past production and their export order books improved. Services confidence fell slightly (-0.4). A decrease in managers' demand expectations and a smaller decline in their assessment of the past business situation were mitigated by a small improvement in their views about past demand. Consumer confidence fell sharply (-3.4) to a 2½-year low, driven by a dramatic decline in consumers’ expectations for the overall economic situation in their country. Consumers also became markedly more pessimistic about their household's future financial situation and less prone to make major purchases over the next 12 months. Consumers’ assessment of their household's past financial situation remained broadly stable. Similarly, retail trade confidence declined substantially (-2.0) by force of retailers' plummeting business expectations for the next 3 months. While also the assessment of the past business 1 Past survey data were revised due to seasonal adjustment and revisions in French business survey data. 2 The graph presents standardised series to correct for differences in means and standard deviations. Economic and Financial Affairs 2 situation edged down, partial relief came from an improved assessment of the volume of stocks. Construction confidence was moderately up (+0.7), as builders' assessments of their order books and employment expectations improved somewhat. Graph 3: Business situation (past 3 months) in the EU 2 Graph 4: Business expectations (next 3 months) in the EU 2 long-term av erage long-term av erage industry industry servic es servic es retail trade retail trade construction 20 15 20 17 2019 20 21 2023 2025 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 The Employment Expectations Indicator declined (-1.3 to 97.3), due to downward adjustments in employment plans mainly in retail trade, but also in services and industry. In contrast, construction managers' employment plans improved slightly. Meanwhile, consumers’ unemployment expectations, which are not included in the headline indicator, worsened significantly. The EU Labour Hoarding Indicator increased further (+0.5 points to 9.9), edging above its long-term average of 9.6.3 Graph 5: Employment expectations (next 3 months) in the EU 2 Graph 6: Selling price expectations (next 3 months) in the EU 2 industry servic es retail trade construction long-term av erage long-term av erage industry servic es retail trade construction 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Graph 7: Consumer expectations (next 12 months) in the EU Graph 8: Uncertainty in the EU2 70 -10 60 10 EUI 60 0 industry 50 servic es 50 10 retail trade Balances, % (inverted scale) construction 40 20 40 consumers (rhs) 0 Balances, % 30 30 30 20 40 10 50 20 -10 0 60 10 -10 price expectations 70 unemployment expectations (rhs) -20 80 0 -20 20 15 2017 20 19 20 21 2023 20 25 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 3 The LHI measures the percentage of managers expecting their firm’s output to decrease, but employment to remain stable or increase. See the special topic of the 2023-Q2 EBCI for background, and section 3.6.9 of the BCS User Guide for methodological details. Detailed LHI results per sector and country are available for download in the time series section of the BCS website. 3 Managers’ selling price expectations were sharply up in all four business sectors, and strikingly so in industry. Selling price expectations moved further beyond their long-term average in all business sectors. Consumers’ perceptions of price developments over the past twelve months increased moderately, but their expectations about price developments for the next twelve months surged. The Economic Uncertainty Indicator (EUI) rose considerably by 3.0 points. Managers' uncertainty about their future business situation increased in industry, retail trade and, most markedly so, in services, while it decreased among construction managers. Consumers’ uncertainty about their future financial situation also picked up significantly. Data collection period: 1 to 24 March. 4 Annex tables displaying results for the ESI, EEI, confidence indicators and individual survey questions for the past 12 months (as well as historical min, max and averages) are available here. Methods and definitions The Commission’s harmonised Business and Consumer Survey (BCS) programme, managed by the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), was set up in 1961, and its scope has since expanded considerably in terms of both countries and sectors covered. Five surveys are conducted on a monthly basis in the following areas: manufacturing industry, construction, consumers, retail trade, and services. Some additional questions are asked on a quarterly basis in the January, April, July and October surveys in industry, services, and among consumers. In addition, questions on manufacturing and services companies’ investment plans are included twice a year (April and November). The surveys are conducted by national institutes in the Member States and the candidate countries based on harmonized questionnaires and a common timetable. The data of the surveys is processed by DG ECFIN's Unit Economic situation, forecasts, business and consumer surveys (A3), Sector Business and consumer surveys and short-term forecast. The confidence indicators are produced to reflect overall perceptions and expectations at the individual sector level in a one-dimensional index. For each of the five surveyed sectors, they are calculated as the simple arithmetic average of the (seasonally adjusted) balances of answers to specific questions chosen from the full set of questions in each individual survey. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is a composite indicator combining judgements and attitudes of businesses (in industry, construction, retail trade, services) and consumers by means of a weighted aggregation of standardised input series. The Employment Expectations Indicator is constructed as a weighted average of the employment expectations of managers in four surveyed business sectors (i.e. industry, services, retail trade and construction). More information on methods and definitions can be found in the methodological guidelines section of the BCS website. All press releases can be found here. Detailed data results of all surveys are freely available for download in the BCS time series section of the website. You can also contact DG ECFIN at the following address: ECFIN-BCS-MAIL@ec.europa.eu © European Union, 2026 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged Upcoming releases: Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator 22 April 2026 Full Business and Consumer Survey Results (incl. ESI, EEI, sectoral CIs) 29 April 2026