---
source: Banco Central do Brasil
url: https://www.bcb.gov.br/detalhenoticia/21050/nota
document_type: press_release
date_retrieved: 2026-03-16
period: January 2026
parent_publication: IBC-Br Economic Activity Index
indicators_covered:
  - IBC-Br (Índice de Atividade Econômica do Banco Central)
  - Agriculture
  - Industry
  - Services
  - Tax Revenues
---

# Índice de Atividade Econômica do Banco Central (IBC-Br) — Janeiro de 2026

**Release Date:** March 16, 2026  
**Reference Period:** January 2026  
**Source:** Banco Central do Brasil

## Principal Result

The Economic Activity Index of the Central Bank of Brazil (IBC-Br) registered a **0.8% increase in January 2026** (seasonally adjusted), compared to December 2025, reversing the 0.2% decline observed in the previous month.

This result came in slightly below market expectations, which ranged from 0% to 1.30%, with a median forecast of 0.85%.

## Monthly Variations (Seasonally Adjusted)

| Period | Variation (%) |
|--------|---------------|
| January 2026 | +0.8 |
| December 2025 | -0.2 |
| November 2025 | -0.3 |

## Sectoral Performance — January 2026 (Rolling Trimester, Seasonally Adjusted)

The analysis by economic sector for the rolling trimester ending in January 2026 shows the following performance:

| Sector | Variation (%) | Notes |
|--------|---------------|-------|
| Agriculture & Livestock | -1.5 | Contraction following 2.3% expansion in December |
| Industry | +0.4 | Growth following 0.3% rise in prior month |
| Services | +0.8 | Recovery from 0.3% decline in December |
| Taxes | +0.5 | Modest increase |
| **IBC-Br Total** | **+0.8** | Seasonally adjusted |
| IBC-Br Excluding Agriculture | +0.9 | Excluding agricultural sector |

## Variations and Accumulated Performance

### Non-Seasonally Adjusted (Year-on-Year)

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (year-over-year comparison), the IBC-Br showed a **1.0% increase** in January 2026 compared to January 2025.

### Accumulated Performance

| Period | Variation |
|--------|-----------|
| 12-month accumulated (through January 2026) | +2.26% to 2.3% |
| 12-month accumulated (through December 2025) | +2.46% |
| Year-over-year (January 2026 vs January 2025) | +1.0% to 1.77% |

## Context and Methodology

The **Economic Activity Index of the Central Bank (IBC-Br)** serves as an advance estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and is widely utilized by the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) to determine necessary adjustments to the Selic rate (Brazil's benchmark interest rate).

The index reflects the performance of Brazil's three main economic sectors:

- **Agriculture and Livestock**
- **Industry**
- **Services**

Additionally, it incorporates **tax revenue data** to provide a more comprehensive view of economic activity.

The index is based at 100 as of 2002 and is published monthly by the Central Bank of Brazil, typically with a lag of approximately two to three weeks from the reference month.

## Market Expectations vs. Actual Results

| Indicator | Value |
|-----------|-------|
| Actual Result (Seasonally Adjusted) | +0.8% |
| Market Median Forecast | +0.85% |
| Prior Month (December 2025) | -0.2% |
| Forecast Range | 0% to 1.30% |

## Key Observations

The January 2026 result represents a significant recovery from the negative data in December 2025, marking one of the largest monthly gains recorded in the past year. This performance, led primarily by the rebound in the services sector and growth in industry, suggests a resumption of Brazilian economic activity in early 2026, although moderated by contraction in the agricultural sector.

Notably, the core economic activity measure (excluding agriculture) expanded by 0.9%, indicating underlying strength in manufacturing and services despite agricultural headwinds.

The data released by the Central Bank reinforces the continued importance of the IBC-Br as a leading indicator for macroeconomic analysis and for guiding Brazilian monetary policy decisions.

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*Source: Banco Central do Brasil — IBC-Br Press Release, March 16, 2026*