---
source: Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB)
url: https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/hubfs/research/mbb/2026/Business_Barometer-Canada-2026-03.pdf
document_type: pdf
date_retrieved: 2026-03-24
period: March 2026
parent_publication: CFIB Business Barometer
indicators_covered: [Small Business Confidence Index, Short-term Optimism Index, Price Increase Plans, Wage Increase Plans, Cost Constraints, Full-time Staffing Plans]
---

# CFIB Business Barometer, March 2026

## Executive Summary
Small business confidence in Canada saw a significant deterioration in March 2026. The **12-month Business Barometer® index fell to 55.8**, a sharp drop of 9.5 points from February. The short-term (3-month) optimism index also declined significantly, falling 7.3 points to **54.5**.

## Confidence Indices
| Indicator | March 2026 | February 2026 | Change |
|-----------|------------|---------------|--------|
| **12-month Confidence Index** | 55.8 | 65.3 | -9.5 |
| **3-month Optimism Index** | 54.5 | 61.8 | -7.3 |

*Note: Index > 50 = more businesses expecting stronger performance than weaker performance.*

## Key Findings
*   **Business Health:** The balance of opinion on current business health dropped by 9 percentage points, returning to levels last seen in Fall 2025.
*   **Staffing:** Full-time staffing plans remain a rare bright spot; 17% of employers plan to hire vs. 12% planning layoffs. This is the third consecutive month of positive net staffing intentions.
*   **Constraints:** **Insufficient demand** is the top constraint (cited by 57% of SMEs), worsening compared to recent months and standing 20 points above the historical average.

## Inflation and Costs
*   **Price Plans:** Average expected price increases edged up to **2.7%** (+0.5 points).
*   **Wage Plans:** Average expected wage increases eased slightly to **2.2%**.
*   **Cost Pressures:**
    *   Insurance costs: 65%
    *   Tax and regulatory costs: 61%
    *   Wage costs: 59%
    *   Fuel costs: 50% (Saw a massive **14-point jump** in one month)
    *   Product input/Raw materials: 44% (+12 points)

## Sectoral Performance (12-month Index)
Most sectors saw declines. Only three industries showed increases:
*   Wholesale: 55.7
*   Insurance, real estate, and financial activities: 60.7
*   Information, arts, and recreation: 59.5
*   **Manufacturing** remains weak at 54.6.

## Provincial Overview (12-month Index)
*   **Highest Confidence:** Manitoba (62.8), Nova Scotia (59.4), Quebec (61.9 - slight improvement).
*   **Lowest Confidence:** Alberta (51.8), BC (53.6), Ontario (53.7).

## Methodology
The March 2026 survey results are based on 651 responses received from March 3-10. The survey is considered accurate to within +/- 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.