--- source: S&P Global Market Intelligence (Markit PMI) url: https://prod.azure.ihsmarkit.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/monthly-pmi-bulletin-february-2026.html document_type: html date_retrieved: 2026-03-17 period: February 2026 reference_date: 2026-02-28 release_date: 2026-03-04 parent_publication: Monthly PMI Bulletin indicators_covered: [Russia Composite PMI, Russia Manufacturing PMI, Russia Services PMI] source_institution: S&P Global Market Intelligence / IHS Markit methodology: Markit Russia Composite Output Index --- # S&P Global Russia Composite PMI — February 2026 Release ## Executive Summary Russia's private-sector economic activity showed marginal expansion in February 2026, with the **Composite PMI declining to 50.8** from 52.1 in January. This represents a cooling from the previous month's pace, signaling that while the economy continues to grow, momentum has weakened significantly. The slowdown was driven by contracting manufacturing activity and deceleration in services growth. ## Key Indicators ### Composite PMI: 50.8 (February 2026) - **Previous Month (January 2026):** 52.1 - **Change:** -1.3 points, indicating a shift toward weaker expansion - **Threshold:** Above 50 signals expansion; below 50 signals contraction - **Assessment:** Marginal private-sector expansion; softening growth trajectory ### Manufacturing PMI: 49.5 (February 2026) - **Status:** Contraction (below 50 threshold) - **Implication:** Manufacturing production declined in February, reflecting ongoing challenges in the goods-producing sector - **Contributing factors:** Sanctions-related constraints on component replacement, supply chain disruptions ### Services Sector - **Trend:** Growth deceleration - **Details:** Services output rose at a weaker pace compared to January; new business growth recorded at softest rate in three months - **Specifics:** Services segment experiencing slower sales growth and softening demand ## Business Activity Trends ### Output Growth - **Overall trend:** Both sectors experienced slower production growth - **Manufacturing:** Returned to contraction mode with production declining - **Services:** Maintained expansion but at reduced pace ### New Orders - **Composite trend:** New business increased at softest rate in three months - **Manufacturing:** Orders broadly unchanged - **Services:** Slower sales growth than in January ### Employment - **Status:** Declined across both sectors in February - **Context:** Continuing pressure on labor demand despite overall economic expansion - **Significance:** Employment decline during period of nominal expansion indicates cautious business outlook ### Price Pressures - **January comparison:** Input cost and output charge inflation moderated from January's VAT-driven surge - **Assessment:** Price pressures remained elevated and among the strongest in just over a year - **Driver:** VAT increases contributing to sustained cost inflation despite monthly moderation ### Business Confidence - **Status:** Remained positive but fell to lowest level since December 2022 - **Details:** Decline attributable to softer expectations among both manufacturers and service providers - **Context:** Confidence erosion reflects geopolitical uncertainties and sanctions-related concerns ## Sectoral Analysis ### Manufacturing - **PMI:** 49.5 — contraction - **Production:** Declining - **Challenges:** - Ongoing difficulties replacing foreign-sourced components under sanctions regime - Supply chain disruptions impacting production efficiency - Weak order book with minimal new orders growth ### Services - **Status:** Expansion but decelerating - **Output growth:** Weakening from previous month - **New business:** Minimal growth, 3-month low - **Demand:** Softening sales dynamics ## Methodology & Data Source **Index Name:** Markit Russia Composite Output Index (S&P Global PMI) **Sample:** Representative panel of approximately 300 private-sector companies across Russia **Frequency:** Monthly **Coverage:** The index tracks the following variables: - Sales (output) - New orders - Employment - Inventories - Prices (input costs and output charges) **Interpretation:** - Reading above 50 = expansion in private-sector business activity - Reading below 50 = contraction in private-sector business activity - Larger movements away from 50 = stronger directional signal **Survey methodology:** Data compiled from surveys of senior executives at private-sector firms; responses aggregated into single headline PMI figure and component indices. **Data availability:** This is a limited sample of PMI headline data displayed here. Full historic PMI headline data and all sub-index data and histories are available on subscription from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Contact economics@spglobal.com for full data access. ## Historical Context - **January 2026:** Composite PMI 52.1 (marginal expansion with stronger momentum) - **February 2026:** Composite PMI 50.8 (marginal expansion with weakening momentum) - **Trend:** Two-month decline of 1.3 points indicates deteriorating economic conditions ## Key Takeaways 1. **Cooling expansion:** Russia's private-sector growth momentum has diminished, with the Composite PMI dropping from 52.1 to 50.8 in one month. 2. **Manufacturing crisis:** The sector's return to contraction (PMI 49.5) reflects ongoing structural challenges from component shortages under sanctions. 3. **Services softening:** While still expanding, services growth has slowed significantly with new business at 3-month lows. 4. **Employment pressure:** Despite nominal expansion, both sectors shed jobs, suggesting businesses are managing costs defensively. 5. **Price inflation remains sharp:** Although moderated from January's VAT spike, pricing pressures persist at elevated levels, constraining profit margins. 6. **Confidence erosion:** Business sentiment has hit its weakest level in over a year, indicating uncertainty about sustainability of current growth. ## Source Notes **Primary source:** S&P Global Market Intelligence Monthly PMI Bulletin (February 2026 data, released March 4, 2026) **Document accessed:** Monthly PMI Bulletin published February 9, 2026, covering February data and broader global/regional PMI analysis **Subscription data:** Full Russia PMI report with complete sub-indices (new orders, employment, prices, etc.) and multi-month history available exclusively through S&P Global Market Intelligence subscription. The headline Composite PMI figure and select details are reported via public sources including Trading Economics. **Analyst:** Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director, Operations - IMPG, S&P Global Market Intelligence --- ## About Markit PMI The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a monthly economic indicator compiled by S&P Global from surveys of purchasing managers in the private sector. PMI data are produced for more than 40 economies worldwide and are among the most widely tracked forward-looking business cycle indicators globally. The index provides insights into: - Current economic growth trajectory - Business confidence and forward expectations - Inflation and pricing dynamics - Employment trends - Export/import activity - Capital spending intentions PMI is particularly valued by central banks, policymakers, and financial markets for its early-month release relative to official government statistics and its granular sectoral breakdowns.