---
source: Bureau for Economic Research (BER)
url: https://www.ber.ac.za/Documents/Index/Absa-PMI
document_type: pdf
date_retrieved: 2026-05-04
period: April 2026
parent_publication: Absa Purchasing Managers' Index
indicators_covered: [Manufacturing PMI]
---

# Absa Purchasing Managers' Index — April 2026

**Embargoed until 11:00 4 May 2026**

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose above the neutral 50-point mark for the first time since September 2025, increasing to **52.6 in April** from 49 in March. The improvement was driven by a rebound in both business activity and new sales orders, pointing to a stronger start to the second quarter following a weak first quarter. However, some of this improvement likely reflects front-loading of demand ahead of expected price increases, raising questions about the sustainability of the recovery.

## Key Sub-Indices (April 2026)

| Indicator | Value (Apr) | Value (Mar) | Value (Feb) |
|-----------|-------------|-------------|-------------|
| Business Activity | 52.8 | 46.1 | 45.7 |
| New Sales Orders | 52.9 | 44.5 | 45.2 |
| Employment | 43.8 | 43.3 | 42.5 |
| Inventories | 52.3 | 48.8 | 48.1 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 61.4 | 62.1 | 55.3 |
| Purchasing Prices | 85.6 | 75.8 | 55.1 |

## Analysis

The business activity index increased for a second consecutive month, returning to expansionary territory. This suggests that production picked up meaningfully at the start of the second quarter as new sales orders also rose sharply in April, following a subdued first quarter. The increase appears to have been driven primarily by stronger **domestic demand**, while export sales declined. This divergence suggests that the recovery is not broad-based and remains vulnerable to external headwinds. Moreover, some respondents indicated that orders may have been brought forward in anticipation of further cost increases, potentially resulting in weaker demand in the months ahead.

The inventories index increased and moved above the neutral 50-point mark for the first time since August 2025. This likely reflects stock-building behaviour, with firms purchasing inputs ahead of expected price increases. While this supported the headline PMI in April, it may also point to temporary factors rather than a sustained increase in underlying demand.

Cost pressures intensified further in April, with the purchasing price index rising to **85.6** following the record increase in March. The index is now more than 30 points above its level at the start of the year. This sharp rise reflects higher oil-linked input costs and a slightly weaker exchange rate. Elevated input costs are likely to squeeze profit margins and could limit the sustainability of the recent improvement in activity. In addition, continued cost pressures at the factory level may contribute to broader inflationary pressures in the economy.

The index tracking expected business conditions improved slightly in April, although it remains below the neutral 50-point mark. This suggests that while purchasing managers are somewhat less pessimistic than in March, confidence in the outlook remains subdued. Most responses were in before the fuel levy relief extension was announced, which does soften the direct hit from the diesel price increase a little.

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*Source: Bureau for Economic Research (BER), sponsored by Absa. The PMI is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers in South Africa's manufacturing sector. Values above 50 indicate expansion; below 50 indicate contraction.*