--- source: International Energy Agency (IEA) url: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a25ddf53-cd6c-4910-ac90-16bfd28399e7/-12MAR2026_OilMarketReport.pdf document_type: pdf date_retrieved: 2026-03-17 period: March 2026 parent_publication: Oil Market Report indicators_covered: [Oil Supply, Oil Demand, Refining, Inventories, Prices, Strait of Hormuz Disruption] date_published: 2026-03-12 --- 12 March 2026 • The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. With crude and oil product flows through the Strait of Hormuz plunging from around 20 mb/d before the war to a trickle currently, limited capacity available to bypass the crucial waterway, and storage filling up, Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 mb/d. In the absence of a rapid resumption of shipping flows, supply losses are set to increase. • Global oil supply is projected to plunge by 8 mb/d in March, with curtailments in the Middle East partly offset by higher output from non-OPEC+ producers, Kazakhstan and Russia following disruptions at the start of the year. While the extent of losses will depend on the duration of the conflict and-disruptions to flows, we estimate global oil supply to rise by 1.1 mb/d in 2026 on average, with non-OPEC+ producers accounting for the entire increase. • The conflict is also having a significant impact on global product markets, with export flows through the Strait at a near standstill. Gulf producers exported 3.3 mb/d of refined products and 1.5 mb/d of LPG in 2025. More than 3 mb/d of refining capacity in the region has already shut due to attacks and a lack of viable export outlets. Runs elsewhere will be increasingly limited due to feedstock availability. • IEA member countries unanimously agreed on 11 March to make 400 mb of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market to address disruptions stemming from the war in the Middle East. Global observed oil stocks were 8 210 mb in January, their highest level since February 2021. The OECD accounted for 50%, Chinese crude stocks 15%, oil on water 25%, with the remainder in other non-OECD countries. • Widespread flight cancellations in the Middle East and large-scale disruptions to LPG supplies are expected to curb global oil demand by around 1 mb/d during March and April compared to previous estimates. Higher oil prices and a more precarious outlook for the global economy pose further risks to the forecast. Global oil consumption is now set to increase by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 2026 – down 210 kb/d from last month. • Oil prices have gyrated wildly since the United States and Israel launched joint air strikes on Iran on 28 February. Disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies due to attacks on the region’s oil infrastructure and the cessation of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent futures soaring, trading within a whisker of $120/bbl. Prices subsequently eased with Brent around $92/bbl at the time of writing – up $20/bbl for the month. Oil Market Report Market overview Tables of contents Dire Straits ................................................................................................................................ 3 Demand...................................................................................................................................... 6 Overview ................................................................................................................................. 6 Middle Eastern Air Traffic Upheaval Weighs on Jet/Kerosene Demand ................................ 7 OECD ...................................................................................................................................... 8 Trade Dislocations Upending Global Petrochemical Markets ............................................... 11 Non-OECD ............................................................................................................................ 13 Supply ...................................................................................................................................... 17 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 17 Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Pathways to Restart and Implications for Supply .................... 19 OPEC+ crude supply ............................................................................................................ 21 Russia’s Total Export Revenues Plunge to Fresh Low in February ..................................... 25 Non-OPEC+ .......................................................................................................................... 27 Limited upside to Output from Producers Outside of the Middle East in 2026 ..................... 27 Refining ................................................................................................................................... 31 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 31 Regional refining developments ........................................................................................... 32 Middle East Product Exports: The Cornerstone of Product Supplies for so Many ............... 32 Product cracks and refinery margins .................................................................................... 38 Stocks ...................................................................................................................................... 43 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 43 IEA Member Countries Agree Historic Emergency Stock Release ...................................... 45 Implied balance ..................................................................................................................... 46 Recent OECD industry stocks changes................................................................................ 46 Other stocks developments .................................................................................................. 48 Prices ....................................................................................................................................... 52 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 52 Futures markets .................................................................................................................... 53 Spot crude oil prices ............................................................................................................. 55 Freight ................................................................................................................................... 59 The Strait of Hormuz Chokepoints ........................................................................................ 60 Tables ...................................................................................................................................... 62 Oil Market Report Market overview Dire Straits The global oil market is contending with the ramifications of the war in the Middle East. Beyond the direct damage to energy infrastructure in the region, the crisis has led to a near halt in tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz. With nearly 20 mb/d of crude and product exports currently disrupted and limited alternative options to bypass the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint, producers and consumers globally are feeling the strain. Benchmark crude oil prices have surged by $20/bbl to $92/bbl since the outbreak of hostilities on 28 February, with even bigger increases across product markets. With few ships currently able or willing to load cargoes at port, and domestic storage tanks filling up, producers in the region are reducing or shutting in production. While the situation on the ground is fast evolving and at times opaque, we estimate that crude production is currently being curtailed by at least 8 mb/d, with a further 2 mb/d of condensates and NGLs shut in. Major supply reductions are seen in Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Disruptions are not limited to upstream production and exports, with several refineries and gas processing facilities shut down due to attacks or for safety concerns. The closure of the Strait is also forcing export-oriented refineries to cut runs or shut completely as product storage tanks top up, with more than 4 mb/d of refining capacity at risk. Gulf producers exported roughly 3.3 mb/d of refined products, and 1.5 mb/d of LPG in 2025. While additional throughputs in other regions are possible, feedstock availability will be a limiting factor. This has prompted some countries to implement product exports restrictions. Diesel and jet fuel markets look to be particularly vulnerable to an extended loss of Middle East production and exports, given limited flexibility elsewhere to increase output. Meanwhile, the suspension of flights at major airports in the Middle East, with a knock-on effect on hubs elsewhere, has materially reduced global jet fuel demand. Plunging LPG and naphtha supplies are already forcing petrochemical plants to curb their production of polymers, aggravating the loss of Gulf petrochemical flows. LPG use in cooking and heating, especially in India and East Africa, is also at risk. More broadly, higher oil prices and a deteriorating economic outlook have begun to erode demand across the product spectrum. In this context, we have reduced the forecast for global oil demand growth in March and April by more than 1 mb/d on average – and for 2026 as a whole by 210 kb/d to 640 kb/d. Consumer countries have significant amounts of oil in storage to bridge temporary supply losses. Global observed inventories of crude and products are currently assessed at more than 8.2 billion barrels, the highest level since February 2021. Roughly half of these are held in OECD countries, of which 1.25 billion barrels by governments for emergency purposes, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation. IEA member countries agreed on 11 March to make available an unprecedented 400 mb of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market to mitigate the negative impact on economies from the supply disruptions. These additional oil supplies will be offered to the market by implementing emergency stock draws or other measures, according to national circumstances. The co-ordinated emergency stock release provides a significant and welcome buffer, but in the absence of a swift resolution to the conflict, it remains a stop-gap measure. The ultimate impact on oil and gas markets and the broader economy from the conflict will depend not only on the intensity of military attacks and any damage to energy assets, but also, crucially, on the duration of disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Adequate insurance mechanisms and physical protection for shipping are key to the resumption of flows, which is of paramount importance for the oil market. Oil Market Report Market overview Trade Dislocations in Oil Markets The Middle East conflict has made substantial volumes of the region’s oil inaccessible. In 2025, that amounted to almost 20 mb/d, or roughly 20% world oil consumption. The oil market disruption affects primarily countries in Asia but also Europe, particularly for jet fuel, Africa for gasoil as well as other regions dependent on Middle Eastern supply. On the other hand, the price impact is global and is significantly inflationary. Governments in producing and consuming nations have anticipated such crises. Consumers have built strategic oil reserves. Saudi Arabia and the UAE can reroute some crude output to terminals outside the Gulf and have crude storage arrangements close to consumers. Combined, these measures help offset lost crude flows via Hormuz. This box reviews how the current situation is assessed in this Report. In the Supply section, (see Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Pathways to Restart and Implications for Supply) highlights the complexity of re-establishing flows via Hormuz for crude and NGLs. Barriers comprise maritime insurance, seafarers’ rights (including refusal to work in a war zone) and the logistics of co-ordinating and prioritising the transit of dozens of ships in the absence of any authority governing passage through the narrow stretch of water. Some Saudi crude exports will flip to the Red Sea coast, and the UAE will push more volumes to Fujairah, but this is just the first step in getting supply to buyers through alternate routes. Lifting those volumes requires chartering ships in a stretched global tanker market after which they must navigate to the region for loading. In the Price section of this Report, (see The Strait of Hormuz Chokepoints) highlights the impact of supply dislocations on chartering costs. VLCC rates have risen to over six times their five-year average since 28 February, helping boost rates for other tanker segments. In the Refining section, (see titled Middle East Product Exports: The Cornerstone of Product Supplies for So Many) highlights the tensions created by the interruption of exports via Hormuz. The products flows suffering the largest volume impact are LPG (1.5 mb/d) and naphtha (1.2 mb/d). Most of the latter and at least half of the former go to the petrochemical sector. As discussed (see Feedstock and Plastic Trade Dislocations Upending Global Petrochemical Markets) in the Demand section, India takes over 45% of Middle East Gulf LPG exports. Almost 90% of Indian LPG uptake goes to the domestic sector for heating and cooking. With no substantial LPG storage available, the loss will have a rapid impact on consumption. While 99% of the region’s LPG exports go to Asia, the marginal 1% remaining goes mainly to East Africa, playing a role in the transition to clean cooking away from wood, charcoal and dung. The Refining box underlines the equally critical role of gasoil (730 kb/d exported in 2025) and jet/kerosene exports (380 kb/d). While Europe takes most of the latter, Africa dominates the former. Finally, the analysis looks at fuel exports, which breakdown into three main categories: straight run fuel oil (roughly 270 kb/d in 2025), high sulphur fuel oil (420 kb/d) and very low sulphur fuel oil (70 kb/d). Together these represent 15-20% of global fuel oil trade. Most goes to the bunker market, that will tighten sharply, or becomes feedstock for complex refineries in Asia and in the United States. The section indicates refinery run cuts will reach over 4 mb/d in March, of which just over 3 mb/d in the Middle East, slowing crude stock draws. Some reductions have already been announced. Crude and condensate exports via Hormuz of 15 mb/d in 2025 amounted to 20% of refinery use outside the Middle East, but roughly 35% of global seaborne crude trade. The loss of these flows creates an Asian supply shock as over 90% went East of Suez where they account for 35% of refinery crude supply. The remainder is split between Europe (4%), the United States (3%) and other destinations. Part of these Middle East barrels can be exported from the UAE’s ADCOP pipeline delivering at Fujairah (0.5-0.7 mb/d) and from Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline loading at Yanbu Oil Market Report Market overview (up to 5 mb/d). The remaining supply shortfall will have to be met largely from storage or from alternative sources. Exporters who can replace these barrels lie in the Atlantic Basin, in Eurasia and in Western Canada, but any additional volumes will likely be modest. The 30-day suspension of the United States Department of The Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions for Indian buyers of Russian oil on water will provide access to volumes immediately available in ships navigating East of Suez. They notably have the advantage of not needing to charter a tanker for delivery. At end-February, around 30 mb of Russian crude sat offshore India. The principal Asian buyers of Middle East crude exported via Hormuz are China (37% of total exports or over 5.2 mb/d), India (14% or 2.1 mb/d) as well as Korea and Japan (roughly 12% or 1.7 mb/d each). At barely a week’s navigation from Hormuz, India’s exposure to lost supply will be the hardest to compensate in the near term. The Middle East Gulf supplied 40% of India’s 4.9 mb/d of crude imports in 2025. India’s underground strategic petroleum reserve has a capacity of 39.1 mb while refinery crude in tanks was over 107 mb at end-February. China’s Middle East Gulf imports were just over 50% of its seaborne supply. It also holds massive commercial and strategic stocks representing 120 days of net seaborne crude imports. Arrivals from the region in Japan represented 77% of its overall supply; it also holds large strategic crude reserves. Finally, for Korea, the share was 62% of total crude imports; the country holds emergency stocks in line with IEA requirements. Mideast Gulf Crude Exports by Destination - 2025 OECD Asia Oceania UAE Other Asia Saudi-Kuwaiti N.Zone Saudi Arabia China Qatar Middle East Oman OECD Europe Kuwait OECD Americas Iraq NON-OECD Americas Iran Africa mb/d 0 2 4 6 Unknown Source: Kpler. Saudi Aramco has strategic-commercial storage in key consumer markets, allowing it to be reactive to local needs. In Japan, JOGMEC provides Aramco free access to store 8.2 mb of crude at Okinawa and Aramco leases 3 mb at Kiire. Japan gets priority access to crude in the event of an emergency. In Korea, Korea National Oil Corp (KNOC) leases Aramco to store 5.3 mb of crude at Ulsan and can use the stored crude in emergencies. Aramco’s stake in Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp (ZPC) – operator of Rongsheng Petrochemical – includes 18.6 mb of storage capacity at Zhoushan. Aramco currently holds 6 mb at the site but can use surplus volumes for commercial purposes. Aramco also retains a 16.7% share in the Maasvlakte Oil Terminal (MOT) in Rotterdam. Finally, Aramco benefits from stocks in the Sumed pipeline system that it uses as a major storage and export hub for crude targeting the Mediterranean and European markets. It is one of the company’s three primary international storage locations. Sidi Kerir, the northern terminal of the 320 km pipeline, has a capacity of around 19.5 mb and currently holds 11.7 mb. Ain Sukhna on the Red Sea has a capacity around 18.4 mb and currently holds 11.7 mb as well. Meanwhile, the UAE’s ADNOC has held an agreement to store crude at India’s Mangalore cavern SPR since 2018, amounting to around 6 mb. In 2024, the partners agreed to allow ADNOC to re- export the crude for commercial purposes, like Aramco in Japan. Oil Market Report Demand Demand Overview We have downgraded our global oil demand growth forecast for March and April around 1 mb/d on average from our estimate in last month’s Report, mainly due to the outbreak of the Iran war. This puts an end to the strong start to the year evident in reported January/February deliveries. While heightened uncertainty clouds the outlook, global oil demand is now set to grow by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 2026, down 210 kb/d from last month. mb/d World Total Oil Demand mb/d Oil Demand y-o-y Changes by Quarter 4 106 3 104 2 102 1 100 0 98 -1 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 1Q23 3Q23 1Q24 3Q24 1Q25 3Q25 1Q26 3Q26 2019 2024 2025 2026 OECD China Other Asia Other Non OECD Total The products most immediately impacted by the conflict are jet/kerosene and LPG/ethane. The suspension of flights at major airports in the Middle East, with a knock-on effect on hubs elsewhere, translates into lower jet fuel uptake. Accordingly, we have reduced the region’s jet/kerosene demand in March and April by 40%, contributing to a whole-year downgrade for global jet/kerosene consumption growth of 80 kb/d to 120 kb/d, with the Middle East accounting for around half of the decrease. Equally, the conflict has caused major disruptions to LPG/ethane supply chains. With natural gas processing operations halted in parts of the region and flows through the Strait of Hormuz having come to a standstill, LPG supplies for petrochemical and cooking use have been severely curtailed, both locally and at export destinations. Accordingly, we have reduced our annual LPG/ethane demand growth forecast by 170 kb/d to 150 kb/d, with China and India representing two-thirds of the downward revision. However, this is partly offset higher by naphtha use (+70 kb/d), mainly in China, as the petrochemical feedstock substitutes for lost propane and polymer imports. Moreover, the war affects oil consumption in a less direct manner through its impact on prices and economic activity. Global wholesale oil prices have rallied and are currently in the process of being passed on to retail prices. The size and extent of this transmission is as yet unclear and varies greatly by product and between countries. Price subsidies and price controls, common in the non-OECD, will mitigate the pass-through, while products differ with regard to the extent that their demand is price sensitive. For example, gasoline is by far the most price elastic in the product mix; also, price elasticities tend to be higher in the non-OECD region due to the relatively energy-intensive nature of their economies. Oil Market Report Demand Global Demand by Product (thousand barrels per day) Demand Annual Chg (kb/d) Annual Chg (%) 2019 2024 2025 2026 2025 2026 2025 2026 LPG & Ethane 13 211 14 985 15 250 15 403 265 152 1.8 1.0 Naphtha 6 690 7 192 7 191 7 403 -1 211 0.0 2.9 Motor Gasoline 26 928 27 452 27 788 27 908 336 120 1.2 0.4 Jet Fuel & Kerosene 7 865 7 534 7 763 7 879 230 115 3.1 1.5 Gas/Diesel Oil 28 747 28 661 28 926 29 053 265 127 0.9 0.4 Residual Fuel Oil 6 225 6 486 6 293 6 246 - 193 - 47 -3.0 -0.7 Other Products 11 110 10 999 10 909 10 876 - 90 - 34 -0.8 -0.3 Total Products 100 777 103 309 104 122 104 766 813 644 0.8 0.6 Besides its direct impact on oil consumption, a protracted period of higher oil prices would weigh on global economic growth – the main driver of oil demand. As a rough estimate, a 10% sustained increase in benchmark crude oil prices would typically curtail global GDP by around 0.15%. More generally, economic uncertainty accompanied by higher inflation (sovereign bond yields have soared since the start of the war) will make for a harsher macro outlook. As with oil prices, there is a great deal of disparity across the product spectrum. GDP elasticities are typically higher for industrial products such as gasoil and “luxury” consumer goods such as jet fuel. Here too, sensitivities tend to be higher in developing countries. For now, our global GDP outlook remains broadly unchanged from last month’s Report, with growth of 3.4% underlying our model. Any change in this estimate due to the war is difficult to project with any degree of confidence and remains premature. Global Demand by Region (thousand barrels per day) Demand Annual Chg (kb/d) Annual Chg (%) 2019 2024 2025 2026 2025 2026 2025 2026 Africa 4 181 4 611 4 809 4 922 198 113 4.3 2.3 Americas 31 572 31 718 32 019 32 127 301 107 0.9 0.3 Asia/Pacific 36 292 38 638 38 992 39 439 353 447 0.9 1.1 Europe 15 119 14 303 14 260 14 240 - 44 - 20 -0.3 -0.1 Eurasia 4 663 4 816 4 825 4 826 10 1 0.2 0.0 Middle East 8 950 9 222 9 217 9 213 -5 -4 -0.1 0.0 OECD 47 548 45 897 45 882 45 843 - 15 - 40 0.0 -0.1 Non-OECD 53 229 57 412 58 240 58 924 828 684 1.4 1.2 World 100 777 103 309 104 122 104 766 813 644 0.8 0.6 Middle Eastern Air Traffic Upheaval Weighs on Jet/Kerosene Demand The outbreak of the Iran war has brought severe disruptions to Middle Eastern air travel, with flight cancellations at some major regional airports approaching 100%. These have rippled to other regions to a so-far limited extent, with cancellations at Asian and European hubs slightly above typical levels. Accordingly, we have made downward adjustments to our near-term jet/kerosene demand outlook, with the Middle East accounting for the bulk of the reduction. The region’s jet/kerosene consumption was 540 kb/d last year, representing 7% of global use. Assuming flights gradually resume, we have downgraded March and April demand estimates by 270 kb/d (-50%) and by 170 kb/d (-30%), respectively. This will push Middle Eastern 2026 consumption growth into negative territory (-15 kb/d y-o-y), with global jet/kerosene growth curtailed by 80 kb/d to 120 kb/d y-o-y. Oil Market Report Demand The final impact of the war on jet/kerosene uptake is obviously dependent on its duration. One mitigating factor is the diversion of flight traffic already underway, as airlines reroute flights away from Gulf hubs and around the conflict area. % Flight Cancellations 5 March 2026 Conversely, soaring jet/kerosene prices are a 100% fresh potential headwind for jet fuel deliveries. 80% Fuel typically constitutes around 25% of an airline’s operating costs and, although hedging 60% is common, higher wholesale prices would at 40% some point be passed on to ticket prices. Additionally, a more adverse economic outlook 20% would exacerbate this (jet travel and tourism are highly cyclical). This brings downside risk to our forecast if the war and accompanying flight disruptions were to drag on. Source: FlightRadar24 OECD OECD oil use is expected to lose momentum during 2Q26 and 3Q26 due to the impact of interrupted supplies from the Gulf and resulting oil price rises. An average projected y-o-y decline of 40 kb/d is concentrated in gasoil (-120 kb/d), for which higher prices hit consumer and industrial demand. Jet/kerosene consumption is set to be reduced by the cancellation of flights in the short term, especially between Europe and Gulf aviation hubs, with much higher prices likely to erode demand for the fuel further if sustained. Similarly, while the United States benefits from domestic NGLs supplies, petrochemical demand elsewhere will come under increasing pressure given the central role played by the Gulf in naphtha and LPG markets. mb/d OECD Total Oil Demand mb/d OECD Americas Total Oil Demand 50 27 48 26 46 25 44 24 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2019 2024 2025 2026 2019 2024 2025 2026 OECD oil deliveries concluded 2025 with strong momentum that continued into 2026, according to preliminary data. After an average y-o-y decline of 270 kb/d between July and November, they flipped to growth of 630 kb/d in December and an estimated average increase of 100 kb/d in January. and February. In part, this was the result of cold weather in key consuming regions and, what had been, improving manufacturing sentiment. We now assume an average 1Q26 rise of 110 kb/d y-o-y. Overall 2026 demand is set to be essentially flat at 45.8 mb/d. Oil Market Report Demand OECD Americas oil demand will likely experience the smallest direct impact of the three OECD regions from the turmoil in the Middle East thanks to a combination of strong local output and geographical isolation from the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, higher international prices are set to cut consumption, especially for middle distillates. Accordingly, we have revised demand growth 20 kb/d lower for the middle quarters of the year. Overall annual growth for 2026 is now expected at 30 kb/d, boosted by firm preliminary indications in the United States. Deliveries in the United States finished 2025 solidly, with y-o-y growth of 250 kb/d in December. This included big increases in ‘other products’ (+100 kb/d y-o-y) and fuel oil (+80 kb/d), products where volumes can be volatile. Gasoil demand was largely flat y-o-y, despite elevated heating requirements in the Northeast and gasoline use also edged higher. Jet/kerosene consumption increased by 40 kb/d, picking up momentum after the end of the government shutdown in November. Average 2025 demand increased by a reported 160 kb/d, dominated by LPG/ethane gains of the same amount. Gasoline deliveries declined by 60 kb/d (0.6%), despite GDP growth of 2.3%. A softening labour market, anaemic consumer confidence and improving average vehicle efficiency all contributed to this reduction. Preliminary data for January and February suggest an average increase of 50 kb/d in US oil use, led by LPG and ethane. LPG and gasoil demand were supported by sustained cold temperatures across much of the country. We expect an overall gain of 40 kb/d for 2026, dominated by LPG/ethane and jet/kerosene. Estimated Mexican 2025 demand has been adjusted upwards by 50 kb/d based on a revised methodology incorporating reported Pemex data. Official data remain unavailable for most of 2025 but new estimates better reflect observed macroeconomic and apparent demand trends with a 10 kb/d contraction forecast for the year. We expect this modest rate of decline to continue in 2026. mb/d OECD Europe Total Oil Demand mb/d OECD Asia Oceania Total Oil Demand 15 9 14 8 13 7 12 6 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2019 2024 2025 2026 2019 2024 2025 2026 We have revised our estimates for OECD Europe’s y-o-y oil demand growth down by an average of 80 kb/d for the second and third quarters of 2026, resulting in an overall annual contraction of 30 kb/d. As with other regions, the war in the Middle East will soften demand in Europe, including through higher fuel prices. Additionally, flight disruptions are weighing on aviation demand, with around 2% of flights cancelled from major European airports since the start of March – in some countries, including the United Kingdom and Türkiye, the reduction has been closer to 5%. We assume that this will result in the loss of around 30 kb/d of European jet fuel demand during March, although this remains particularly sensitive to the scope and duration of hostilities. The Gulf is the single largest source of European jet fuel imports. Oil Market Report Demand Feedstock costs for European petrochemical producers are likely to rise, as a result of the loss of naphtha and LPG exports from the Gulf. However, diminished polymer supplies from the region will support prices and margins. Unlike key Asian regions, Europe is a small net exporter of naphtha and does not import significant amounts of feedstock from Gulf states. The primary sources of LPG imports are the United States and Algeria. In this Report we have nevertheless assumed reduced operating rates for European plants during March and April, curbing demand by an average of 30 kb/d for the period. Europe reported the largest demand increase of the three regions in December 2025. Consumption went up by 380 kb/d y-o-y, bouncing back from a 430 kb/d contraction in November. Diesel deliveries were up by 180 kb/d and ‘other gasoil’, which includes heating oil, rose by 90 kb/d. European temperatures were relatively, although by no means spectacularly, cold at the start of the year. Hence the stronger diesel demand may be a harbinger of improving industrial conditions (which are now imperilled by the consequences of events in the Middle East). The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI increased to a 44-month high of 50.8 in February on rising factory orders. OECD Demand based on Adjusted Preliminary Submissions - January 2026 (million barrels per day) Gasoline Jet/Kerosene Diesel Other Gasoil LPG/Ethane RFO Other Total Products m b/d % pa m b/d % pa m b/d % pa m b/d % pa m b/d % pa m b/d % pa m b/d % pa m b/d % pa OECD Am ericas 9.96 -1.2 1.89 -3.6 3.51 0.2 1.86 -2.2 5.16 2.2 0.46 -7.6 2.24 -8.6 25.08 -1.4 US* 8.48 -0.3 1.59 -4.1 2.66 -1.3 1.56 -1.5 4.24 1.6 0.37 -5.3 1.66 -10.0 20.56 -1.4 Canada 0.71 -9.1 0.16 -2.2 0.33 13.2 0.29 -5.2 0.54 4.0 0.01 -58.2 0.33 -5.9 2.38 -2.9 Mexico 0.68 -3.0 0.10 -1.6 0.34 0.5 0.02 -4.9 0.34 7.3 0.06 -2.5 0.21 -4.1 1.75 -0.5 OECD Europe 2.14 1.6 1.33 1.9 4.16 -2.6 1.20 7.5 1.12 4.3 0.60 -0.8 1.90 -5.6 12.45 -0.3 Germany 0.47 0.1 0.17 4.2 0.57 0.9 0.29 11.9 0.08 -10.3 0.05 4.8 0.33 7.4 1.95 3.1 United Kingdom 0.30 4.3 0.31 3.7 0.43 -12.3 0.04 14.4 0.11 0.3 0.01 34.9 0.09 -6.3 1.30 -2.6 France 0.25 -2.4 0.16 6.2 0.56 -8.1 0.12 -7.1 0.09 5.2 0.03 2.4 0.19 0.9 1.39 -3.4 Italy 0.19 6.0 0.09 0.7 0.43 -3.1 0.05 15.6 0.13 -2.4 0.03 -18.4 0.14 -28.3 1.06 -5.5 Spain 0.14 5.4 0.14 1.8 0.41 0.0 0.20 8.8 0.09 21.0 0.13 -8.7 0.18 -8.6 1.30 1.0 OECD Asia & Oceania 1.38 7.3 1.17 5.3 1.35 7.2 0.41 -1.4 0.81 2.0 0.43 5.6 2.00 -0.5 7.55 3.6 Japan 0.70 3.0 0.68 4.5 0.41 5.1 0.28 -2.5 0.42 -7.0 0.19 -0.3 0.72 -2.4 3.39 0.4 Korea 0.27 21.5 0.25 10.2 0.37 25.7 0.07 1.5 0.34 19.1 0.20 8.9 1.14 0.9 2.66 9.5 Australia 0.28 7.6 0.18 1.3 0.51 -0.6 - - 0.03 -0.8 0.02 12.2 0.09 -5.1 1.11 1.4 OECD Total 13.48 0.1 4.39 0.3 9.02 -0.1 3.47 1.1 7.09 2.5 1.49 -1.3 6.14 -5.2 45.08 -0.3 * Including US territories. OECD Asia Oceania imports more oil from the Gulf than the other OECD regions combined, largely to Japan and Korea. This is mainly in the form of crude, but 600 kb/d of naphtha arrived in Japan and Korea during 2025. This is roughly one third of the feedstock’s consumption and the impact on local petrochemical producers of any sustained interruption in flows would be substantial. While LPG flows from the Middle East to Japan and Korea are much smaller, tighter global markets are likely to limit discretionary consumption. We have revised expected March-May demand down by an average of 70 kb/d for naphtha and 20 kb/d for LPG. Fuel demand has also been revised slightly lower, on higher international oil prices, but it remains to be seen how these will be passed on to regional consumers – especially in Japan. Regional demand is now expected to contract by an average of 40 kb/d this year, despite strong January delivery data. Korean demand increased by 230 kb/d y-o-y for the month, with gains across all major products categories amid a nascent upturn in manufacturing conditions. Preliminary January data for Japan also suggests that demand exceeded our previous expectations particularly for key heating fuel jet/kerosene and registered a y-o-y increase for the first time since September. Oil Market Report Demand Trade Dislocations Upending Global Petrochemical Markets Owing to enormous local production of petrochemical feedstocks and derivatives, Gulf states play an outsized role in global LPG, naphtha and polymer markets. Much of this takes the form of exports through the Strait of Hormuz, by tanker, gas carrier or container ship. In 2025, these outflows totalled more than 4 mb/d of oil products (or their feedstock equivalent for petrochemical shipments), roughly a quarter of the total global petrochemicals market. This concentration means that polymer producing and consuming sectors of the global economy are likely to be acutely impacted by any prolonged disruptions, especially in Asia which is most closely intertwined with Gulf producers. Imports of Gulf Naphtha and LPG, 2025 Gulf Polymer and Intermediate Exporters - mb/d mb/d Local Feedstock Equivalent, 2025 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 China India Japan and Other Asia Others Saudi UAE Qatar Iran Kuwait Korea Arabia Naphtha LPG Ethylene Propylene Paraxylene Source: Kpler Source: ICIS Operations at Gulf petrochemical plants are already being hampered by a combination of upstream outages and blocked exports. A pause in gas processing in Qatar, which is likely to be protracted based on comments from QatarEnergy, means supply to the country’s ethane crackers has been cut. Upstream shut-ins elsewhere, such as those reported in Kuwait, could reduce supply of feedstocks, which are typically the by-products of oil or gas production, to local producers. Those petrochemical plants who continue to receive feedstock can either supply domestic consumers, find alternative export routes (for example via truck to container ports on the Red Sea or Gulf of Oman) or accumulate polymer inventory. According to ICIS, some 84% of Middle Eastern polyethylene supply (the region’s most important export polymer), equivalent to around 1.5 mb/d of petrochemical products, would typically export via the Strait. Many Middle Eastern plants typically store pallets holding bagged polymer pellets in large outdoor yards before containerising them and in many cases, it may be possible to expand these on-site inventories considerably. We estimate that shutdowns and throughput rate cuts of this kind will eliminate 530 kb/d of Middle Eastern naphtha, LPG and ethane demand in March, although potential local polymer inventory builds may result in larger losses for plastic-importing markets. In the case of longer disruptions, impacts for petrochemicals will mount as incremental polymer inventory builds become more challenging and more upstream production shut in. Direct exports of feedstock products are even larger than the flows of plastic, with shipments of LPG through the Strait totalling 1.5 mb/d and naphtha 1.2 mb/d in 2025, per Kpler. The vast majority of these volumes are directed to Asia. The naphtha feeds East Asian petrochemical centres such as Korea, Japan, China and Singapore. Middle Eastern LPG overwhelmingly goes to India, where it is mostly used for cooking and heating, and to China, as petrochemical feedstock. The UAE (730 kb/d last year) is the largest contributor, with Qatar (600 kb/d), Iran (550 kb/d), Kuwait (390 kb/d) and Saudi Arabia (270 kb/d) all also sending substantial volumes to international markets via the Gulf. Oil Market Report Demand The Chinese petrochemical sector now faces disruption to a combination of 730 kb/d in feedstocks imports and the equivalent of around 1 mb/d in petrochemical commodities. Substantial stocks, of feedstocks, polymers and crude oil – including roughly three weeks’ worth of material currently at sea – will provide flexibility and buffers. China’s refiners may be able to increase domestic naphtha and LPG output to supply integrated plants. The country’s feedstock and polymer imports come from relatively diverse sources, with the United States a notable major supplier, while ample petrochemical plant capacity allows a high degree of system-wide flexibility between different feedstocks and processes. What is believed to be significant spare capacity in China’s domestic coal-to-chemicals sector can also be ramped up to boost supplies, as appears to have been the case following the temporary interruption to US feedstock imports in April and May last year. Nevertheless, the looming loss of imports is so great that, if prolonged, it could increase pressure on supplies of what are essential inputs for the world’s leading manufacturing sector and local consumer goods. India faces more acute challenges, especially relating to LPG supplies. The nation’s consumption has been rising rapidly in recent years, largely due to a government scheme to promote its use in clean cooking and now totals almost 1.1 mb/d. Because of its widespread domestic use, LPG demand in India is overwhelmingly non-discretionary and amplifies socio-political sensitivities. Consumer supply and distribution chains may include some weeks of stocks, but industrial consumer or derivative product reserves do not exist and volumes at sea are rather limited, owing to the short maritime supply chains (it is less than one week to sail from Hormuz to the west coast of India). The fact that imports equivalent to almost two-thirds of India’s LPG demand are now blocked and the major alternative supplier (the United States) is five to six weeks away by sea makes this a particularly challenging situation. Algeria, Norway, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and Malaysia are the largest LPG exporters outside the United States and the Gulf. India may be able to secure extra volumes from some of these sources, but collectively they only shipped about one-third the volume that passed the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 and there will be fierce competition from other buyers. There will also be similar impacts on petrochemical feedstock importers globally as supplies run short and prices rise. Initially these are likely to be concentrated in Asia, owing to the direct loss of exports. Crackers in China, Korea, Indonesia and Singapore have already announced significant cuts to processing rates or have declared force majeure. While Europe imports little naphtha from the Middle East and has a largely balanced net trade position, shortages elsewhere could create problems for steam cracker operators in the region. However, they are also likely to benefit from higher global polymer prices and better access to the processing flexibility of US LPG supplies. The ability of the United States to make more LPG available to importing countries is a key variable in managing shortages elsewhere. The country has seen a vertiginous increase in NGLs production and accumulated considerable stocks of LPG over recent years. East Daley Analytics data suggests that there may be as much as 450 kb/d of underutilised LPG export capacity and any additional cargoes should face no shortage of buyers. Recently, the primary recipients of US LPG have been East Asian countries like Japan, China, Korea and Indonesia, with smaller volumes going to Mexico and Western Europe. Another important consideration is that US exports are heavily skewed towards propane in contrast to Middle Eastern exports, which are a more balanced split of propane and butane. This makes them much more suitable for petrochemical applications than for cooking. Oil Market Report Demand Non-OECD Non-OECD oil demand is projected to rise by 680 kb/d y-o-y in 2026. This is 150 kb/d below last year’s level and 170 kb/d less than our estimate in last month’s Report, as the Iran war upends the consumption trajectories of several key products. The downward revision is concentrated in LPG/ethane (-190 kb/d), with Middle Eastern exports to China (-250 kb/d for March/April and -90 kb/d for 2026) and India (-200 kb/d for March/April and -20 kb/d for 2026) essentially shut in. Within the petrochemical feedstock complex this may be partly offset by higher naphtha use where availability allows, which already benefited from competitive pricing versus LPG (+90 kb/d to 270 kb/d for 2026 as a whole). Additionally, annual jet/kerosene growth has been revised down by 60 kb/d to 70 kb/d y-o-y, as the Iran war plays havoc with Middle Eastern and Asian flight traffic (see Middle Eastern Air Traffic Upheaval Weighs on Jet/Kerosene Demand). The major road fuels are comparatively subdued, with gasoline (+60 kb/d) and gasoil (+250 kb/d) gains largely unchanged for now. mb/d Non OECD Total Oil Demand mb/d China Total Oil Demand 62 18 60 17 58 16 56 15 54 14 52 13 50 12 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2019 2024 2025 2026 2019 2024 2025 2026 Forecast Chinese growth of 190 kb/d y-o-y for 2026 remains almost unchanged from last month’s Report, as underlying GDP expansion remains stable at 4.7% for now and our initial war-related adjustments to petrochemical feedstocks largely offset one another. Within the feedstocks, we have raised our 2026 naphtha consumption growth forecast by 90 kb/d and lowered our LPG/ethane forecast by 90 kb/d. Relative pricing favours naphtha over LPG, with shut-in Middle Eastern shipments further curtailing deliveries of the latter feedstock. Additionally, the reduction in polymer exports from the Middle East may require Chinese crackers to run more naphtha to maintain domestic supplies to the manufacturing sector. The regular monthly update of Chinese oil statistics was unavailable for January at the time of writing due to the national New Year holiday. China's Lunar New Year holiday ran from 15 to 23 February, its nine days the longest in history after authorities extended the break to incentivise tourism and consumption. This contributed to an unprecedented mobility rush. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported a record 596 million domestic trips, up 19% from last year’s holiday, which was shorter by one day. Highway travel accounted for the great bulk of journeys, with smaller shares for other transport modes. Domestic and international flight traffic were both up by around 3.5% y-o-y, according to data from RadarBox, while the 121 million passenger trips on China’s national railway were 11.5% higher than during last year’s festive break. Total domestic travellers’ spending of CNY 803.5 billion ($117 billion) was also up by almost 19%, resulting in an outlay per trip that was actually down (-0.2%) from last year. This was despite a major Oil Market Report Demand government campaign offering vouchers, cash rewards and other promotions to boost tourism spending, suggesting ongoing consumer wariness. Economic data readings corroborated this caution. Consumer prices rose by 0.2% y-o-y in January, missing expectations and decelerating from December’s 0.8% increase. Consumer morale remains weighed down by the real estate slump which continued unabated in January, with new home prices falling 3.1% y-o-y (-0.4% m-o-m). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned China that its export-led manufacturing model, supported by extensive state subsidies, causes damage to trading partners and creates global imbalances. In this context, China’s trade surplus in goods surpassed $1 trillion last year for the first time. Instead, the IMF called for a recalibration of China’s economic policies: “China cannot count on ever higher exports to drive durable growth in the coming years. That makes pivoting to consumption-led growth the overarching policy priority.” China: Demand by Product (thousand barrels per day) Demand Annual Chg (kb/d) Annual Chg (%) 2019 2024 2025 2026 2025 2026 2025 2026 LPG & Ethane 1 787 2 663 2 724 2 668 61 - 56 2.3 -2.1 Naphtha 1 392 2 296 2 412 2 687 117 275 5.1 11.4 Motor Gasoline 3 470 3 650 3 651 3 528 1 - 124 0.0 -3.4 Jet Fuel & Kerosene 906 938 966 1 004 28 38 3.0 4.0 Gas/Diesel Oil 3 607 3 561 3 551 3 585 -9 34 -0.3 1.0 Residual Fuel Oil 450 595 581 581 - 14 0 -2.3 0.0 Other Products 2 573 2 936 2 966 2 993 30 28 1.0 0.9 Total Products 14 184 16 638 16 852 17 047 214 195 1.3 1.2 Indian oil consumption’s strong start to the year consolidated in February, led by LPG/ethane due to increased use in cooking and heating (+100 kb/d y-o-y to 1.2 mb/d – a record high). However, deliveries will fall back in March and April, with Middle Eastern propane exports to India halted from the Gulf. We estimate a downward demand revision of 200 kb/d, or 17%, in LPG/ethane in both March and April. The country’s macro environment is in flux. February saw a preliminary trade agreement with the United States, as Washington rescinded its 25% penal tariff resulting in an 18% levy. However, the prospects of the deal are in limbo after the US Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s emergency tariffs. Additionally, soaring oil prices pose a fresh risk to India’s economy, with the retail price impact exacerbated by the rupee hovering near record lows. India’s GDP growth slowed to 7.8% y-o-y in 4Q25, down from 8.4% in 3Q25, still beating consensus estimates (and stellar by any measure). As consumption growth slows from its January and February average rate of 260 kb/d, we see an average increase of 150 kb/d in 2026, with gasoil and gasoline contributing around 50 kb/d each. Argentinean oil deliveries declined by 20 kb/d m-o-m to 630 kb/d in January, in line with their historical pattern as demand slumped to its seasonal trough. Consumption rose by 10 kb/d y-o-y, in line with last year’s average rate, and we forecast a similar rate of expansion for this year. This new-found stability marks a partial rebound from 2023 and 2024, when usage decreased by 30 kb/d y-o-y, in line with contracting GDP as the Argentinean economy found itself in a semi-permanent crisis. Instead, the current rate of oil consumption growth marks a return to the 2010s pre-pandemic trend, with the economy on a surer footing in the wake of the Milei government’s economic reforms. Steady GDP expansion of around 3% underlies our forecast. Oil Market Report Demand Non-OECD: Demand by Region (thousand barrels per day) Demand Annual Chg (kb/d) Annual Chg (%) 2019 2024 2025 2026 2025 2026 2025 2026 Africa 4 181 4 611 4 809 4 922 198 113 4.3 2.3 Asia 28 378 31 460 31 954 32 439 494 485 1.6 1.5 Eurasia 4 663 4 816 4 825 4 826 10 1 0.2 0.0 Latin America 6 281 6 473 6 600 6 675 127 75 2.0 1.1 Middle East 8 950 9 222 9 217 9 213 -5 -4 -0.1 0.0 Non-OECD Europe 776 830 834 848 4 14 0.5 1.7 Total Products 53 229 57 412 58 240 58 924 828 684 1.4 1.2 Brazilian oil deliveries fell by 60 kb/d y-o-y in January to 3.2 mb/d, in line with our estimate in last month’s Report. This was the largest contraction in four years and indicative of a harsher economic climate as well as a strong 2025 baseline. GDP growth stalled in 2H25 in the face of interest rates at a near two-decade high of 15% following the Banco Central do Brasil’s campaign to combat inflation with the economy at risk of overheating. Consumer inflation, while still above target has eased, to 4.4% y-o-y in January – a point below last year’s high set in April. Elevated pump prices acted as a brake on oil demand – gasoline prices hovered at three-year highs throughout 2025, at variance with falling global retail prices. In this regard, Petrobras implemented a 5.2% reduction in gasoline prices for distributors from 27 January. In another positive development, Brazil’s central bank has signalled that it will start lowering interest rates in March. As well, the country is a major beneficiary on February’s US Supreme Court’s decision that invalidated President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. This reduces Brazil’s average tariff rate from around 31% to 10% (the level of the post-ruling US replacement tariff). Accordingly, we see consumption growth gradually recovering over the course of 2026, to average 30 kb/d y-o-y. mb/d Brazil Total Oil Demand mb/d Saudi Arabia Total Oil Demand 3.8 4.0 3.6 3.8 3.4 3.6 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.2 2.8 3.0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2019 2024 2025 2026 2019 2024 2025 2026 Saudi Arabian oil deliveries declined by 120 kb/d y-o-y in December. In keeping with last year’s main theme, this was almost entirely due to lower oil use in power generation, which has prompted a paradigm shift in the country’s oil demand trajectory. Contractions in fuel oil and crude oil burn of around 70 kb/d y-o-y each were in line with their average declines during 2H25, suggesting the Kingdom is steadily following through on its plans to substitute liquid fuels with natural gas and renewables in the feedstock mix for its electricity sector. Last year’s drop is particularly notable in view of the sweltering summer, with average temperatures only marginally below record-hot 2023 and 2024 levels. Oil Market Report Demand December data complete a 2025 annual decrease of 80 kb/d (the largest of any country) to 3.4 mb/d, as the reduction in power generation oil use of around 120 kb/d outweighed moderate expansion elsewhere in the product mix. Oil consumption, having temporarily regained pre-pandemic levels in 2022 and 2023, was almost 5% below 2019 levels. In view of Saudi Arabia’s plan to phase out oil in power generation by 2030, demand is very unlikely to regain this level. We see a slightly lower rate of decline of 40 kb/d y-o-y in 2026. Non-OECD: Demand by Product (thousand barrels per day) Demand Annual Chg (kb/d) Annual Chg (%) 2019 2024 2025 2026 2025 2026 2025 2026 LPG & Ethane 7 689 8 785 8 963 9 018 179 55 2.0% 0.6% Naphtha 3 402 4 246 4 334 4 602 88 268 2.1% 6.2% Motor Gasoline 12 308 13 198 13 467 13 530 269 63 2.0% 0.5% Jet Fuel & Kerosene 3 357 3 184 3 286 3 358 102 71 3.2% 2.2% Gas/Diesel Oil 15 057 15 623 15 903 16 151 280 248 1.8% 1.6% Residual Fuel Oil 4 426 4 986 4 877 4 818 - 109 - 58 -2.2% -1.2% Other Products 6 990 7 390 7 409 7 446 19 37 0.3% 0.5% Total Products 53 229 57 412 58 240 58 924 828 684 1.4% 1.2% Oil Market Report Supply Supply Overview Global oil supply is sharply declining this month as the war in the Middle East effectively halts tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing widespread curtailments and shut-ins in Gulf producing countries. In 2025, flows of nearly 20 mb/d of crude and oil products transited through the world’s most critical shipping chokepoint. Since the outbreak of the war, shipments have plummeted to less than 10% of their pre-crisis flows. In the absence of a swift recovery in transits through the Strait, and even with some flexibility from alternative export routes, we estimate about 7.9 mb/d of crude and 9.9 mb/d of total liquids will be shut in across Gulf producers in March. February oil supply rebounded by 380 kb/d to 106.9 mb/d, as non-OPEC+ gained 590 kb/d m-o-m and OPEC+ output declined by 210 kb/d. Global supply in March is projected to fall by 8 mb/d to 98.8 mb/d, its lowest levels since 1Q22. Globally, losses from curtailed shipments from the Gulf are slightly tempered by the return of North American production following a winter freeze and the return of Kazakh and Russian supply after disruptions in February. However, with no signs of a de-escalation in hostilities or a clear timeline for a recovery in flows through the Strait at the time of writing, we note that the March forecast and beyond carry a high level of uncertainty. Global Oil Supply mb/d Gulf Producer Crude Supply mb/d 110 30 25 108 20 106 15 104 10 5 102 - 100 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Jun-26 Saudi Arabia Iran Iraq Kuwait 98 UAE Qatar Jan-25 Jul-25 Jan-26 Jul-26 Bahrain Feb OMR Crude Note: Assumes that options to bypass the Strait are fully utilised from early Note: Assumes that options to bypass the Strait are utilised from early March and seaborne flows gradually normalise from late March. March and seaborne flows gradually normalise from late March. Since the start of hostilities on 28 February, most of the seven Gulf countries – Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iran – that depend on the Strait for exporting crude have to some degree substantially reduced production. The production shut-ins are due to either rapidly filling storage capacities or Iranian attacks on critical infrastructure. By 10 March at least 10 mb/d of crude and condensate production was estimated to have been curtailed. Iraq announced on 2 March it had to reduce output at its Rumaila, West Qurna 2 and Maysan fields due to lack of storage or evacuation options. Operations in northern parts of the country were also halted following missile and drone attacks. QatarEnergy shuttered LNG liquefaction facilities in Ras Laffan on 2 March and downstream products on 3 March following drone strikes, effectively curbing condensate and NGL output by 1.1 mb/d. With no export options to bypass the Strait, Kuwait started reducing production on 6 March to slow the fill of its storage tanks, while Bahrain scaled back production after a drone strike on its Sitra refinery. Offshore fields in the region with limited access to storage or oil egress have also been forced to curtail or halt production. The UAE announced on 7 March it is cutting output at its offshore fields that combined exported over 1.8 mb/d of crude oil in 2025 according to Oil Market Report Supply Kpler data. Saudi Arabia announced on 9 March that it was curbing production of its heavier offshore grades, as available storage was peaking, while at the same time was transitioning more production to lighter onshore grades that can be sent by pipeline to western ports. Saudi Aramco is routing flows of mostly Arab Light from the Gulf through its East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea. The pace of production curtailments was mitigated by loading ships stranded in the Gulf. Oil on water built quickly after 28 February and plateaued around 8 March, for a total of 78 mb additional barrels, or an 8.6 mb/d build. This is roughly equivalent to 40 VLCCs. Just as it served to ease the rate of reduction in output, so it will boost supply to the market while waiting for well output to pick up when the Strait reopens. Gulf Producers Crude Oil on Water Global Oil Supply mb mb/d Month-on-Month Change 140 6 Average Stock build 27/02 to 08/03 = 8.6 mb/d 4 120 2 100 0 -2 80 -4 -6 60 -8 40 -10 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Feb-19 Feb-21 Feb-23 Feb-25 Feb-27 Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Americas Quintet Other Non-OPEC+ OOW Pre-crisis Average Biofuels Saudi Arabia Source: Kpler OPEC Other OPEC+ Non-OPEC Outside of the region, we see limited immediate potential to increase production, with US light tight oil (LTO) and its associated NGLs, as well as delayed Canadian oil sands maintenance as the only apparent sources of noticeable additions. Given the right signals, we estimate that an additional 380 kb/d of US LTO production could be brought online by the end of the year. Reports of the Canadian government discussing with industry the possibility to defer spring oil sands maintenance could bring up to 150 kb/d, or 15 mb, of incremental supply to market over 2Q26. Elsewhere, most operators face limitations in terms of project cycle times, equipment availability or egress. Oilfield operations normally run with very little spare capacity and often lock in maintenance shutdowns well in advance. While the postponement of some scheduled works may be possible, any impact will likely be modest. Non-OPEC+ supply is nevertheless set to see further gains through 2026 as new projects come onstream and ramp up towards capacity, with annual growth projected at 1.2 mb/d. For forecasting purposes, we have assumed only minimal flows through the Strait of Hormuz in March. Assessing the magnitude of the potential losses is fraught with problems, as it will depend not only on the duration and intensity of the conflict but also the speed at which mitigation measures can be implemented. However, a number of plans are already being deployed that could help partially offset losses and provide a rise in global oil supplies from April through June. Shipments from export routes that bypass the Strait in Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already started and are steadily ramping up. Saudi Arabia is rapidly increasing pipeline flows via its 7 mb/d East-West pipeline (Petroline) that runs from Abqaiq near the Gulf to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. On 9 March, Saudi hit a record daily export from its western ports of 5.9 mb/d compared to average exports of 1.7 mb/d in 2025. The pipeline is expected to reach its full capacity of 7 mb/d “in a couple of days” as customers re-route, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said during an earnings call on 10 March. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline is primarily used for supplying its 1.8 mb/d of West Coast refining capacity and power plants, as well as for exporting crude to Europe. New flows to Oil Market Report Supply Asian buyers will need to transit through the Bab-el-Mandeb from the Red Sea, a route that in recent years has carried a risk of Houthi attacks. The pipeline has a rated operating flow of 5 mb/d with an emergency configuration of 7 mb/d. Ahead of the crisis, flows through the line were around 2-2.5 mb/d. The system was designed with operational flexibility and Saudi Aramco temporarily boosted pipeline flows to 7 mb/d in 2019. The UAE is also raising exports from ADCOP’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline that connects onshore fields to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. The line’s stated design capacity is 1.5 mb/d, with reports of flow up to 1.8 mb/d. In 2025, the UAE transported about 1 mb/d of crude on the line. Together the two countries have up to 5.5 mb/d of combined additional pipeline egress that can partially offset reduced flows from the Strait. In addition, the ADCOP port in Fujairah is connected to ADNOC’s massive Al-Mandous 42 mb crude storage cavern which may be helping to boost ADCOP export flows: crude loadings averaged 2.4 mb/d from 4-9 March. Drone and missile attacks on oil export infrastructure are a persistent risk to supply for these locations. In early March, Washington announced that it was working on a plan to ensure the safe flow of oil shipments through the Strait with increased security measures and providing insurance, but these have yet to be put in place (see Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Pathways to Restart and Implications for Supply). The US plan includes military escorts for tankers, but this will take time to organise and ship owners are still awaiting further details. In a show of support to secure maritime routes in the region, on 9 March French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France will deploy a naval force – including an aircraft carrier strike group – to the Mediterranean, Red Sea, and Strait of Hormuz to protect shipping. This includes approximately 10-12 warships, including an aircraft carrier, helicopter carriers, and frigates. The plan is to establish a European and non-European coalition to escort merchant vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. While France is deploying ships now, the operations will commence as soon as the most intense phase of the conflict subsides. Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Pathways to Restart and Implications for Supply Resuming oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will be key in minimising the impact from the war in the Middle East on global markets. At the time of writing, flows through the world’s most critical oil chokepoint were moving at less than 10% of pre-crisis levels, which in 2025 averaged some 15 mb/d of crude and 5 mb/d of oil products. Alternative routes to bypass the Strait are limited to Saudi Arabia’s 7 mb/d East-West pipeline that runs from Abqaiq to Yanbu and the 1.5 mb/d Habshan-Fujairah ADCOP pipeline in the UAE with reports of up to 1.8 mb/d possible on the latter. Flows along these lines were running between 2-2.5 mb/d and 1 mb/d, respectively, prior to the outbreak, with Saudi volumes also serving domestic refining and power plants on the Red Sea. While loadings from both Yanbu and Fujairah are also at risk from attacks and incur higher insurance costs, volumes are already picking up. Additional flows via the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline (ITP) that runs from Kurdistan to Ceyhan are less likely due to security concerns and field shut-ins in the north and limited connections from southern fields to the north. Iran may be able to utilise the Jask terminal, fed by the 1 mb/d Goreh-Jask pipeline, to bypass the Strait. The construction of the terminal is not fully complete but a loading from Jask was tested in 2024. Maritime insurance war risk premiums and protection and indemnity (P&I) insurance extension costs have spiked and, in some areas of the Gulf, have been temporarily cancelled or re‑written as reinsurers reassess “aggregation risk.” On 2 March, the International Group of P&I Clubs, which collectively insure about 90% of the world’s ocean-going tonnage, issued formal 72-hour notices of cancellation for certain war risk coverage associated with Hormuz transport. Oil Market Report Supply In the absence of a full ceasefire, ship owners, charterers, insurers, and crew will need to see robust security measures that lower risks to personnel and equipment and permit maritime insurance coverage as well as a traffic management scheme to resume flows. Lacking private insurance, a backstop of government-backed maritime insurance, such as that announced by the United States, to cover shipowners, cargo and personnel would be needed to restart commercial flows through the Strait. A credible escort regime, designated transit windows, and port/anchorage security could help ease the situation. Even then, it is not guaranteed that all transport will resume as Qatar announced on 6 March that it will only commence its lengthy restart of production from shut-in facilities after there is a complete ceasefire. The navigable channels going into and exiting the Strait of Hormuz are about 2 miles (3.7 km) wide. Flows through the channel are not governed by a queuing system and with a considerable backlog of ships awaiting transit, assembling a traffic management scheme is needed to safely and efficiently restart the backlog of energy, food and many other materials awaiting on both sides of the narrow passageway. Pre‑announced convoy slots, staging at safe anchorages and mandatory pilotage at chokepoints may be needed. With these elements in place, incremental flows through the Strait could resume, providing sufficient security measures for crews and their willingness to sail. On 5 March the International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF), a group of unions covering seafarers, upgraded the region to a Warlike Operations Area (WOA), triggering double basic wages and the right of seafarers to refuse to sail into the area. Once flows restart, it will take several days to weeks for the backlog of tankers on both sides of the Strait to clear. Additionally, shut-in upstream production will take weeks and, in some cases, months, to return to pre-crisis levels depending on the degree of field complexity and the timing for workers, equipment and resources to return to the region. Several international oil companies and service companies have evacuated staff. Eventually well workover equipment will need to be sourced and moved into the Gulf for use in some fields. Although it is tempting to foresee a swift return of barrels, ramping well production up or down too quickly can damage reservoirs or well equipment that may result in further shut-ins and costs. Oil Market Report Supply World Oil Production by Region (million barrels per day) 2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 2026 Africa 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.5 Latin America 7.4 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.5 8.0 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.8 8.6 North America 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.9 30.1 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.7 China 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 Other Asia 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Europe 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 Eurasia 13.5 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.5 13.6 13.1 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.5 Middle East 30.2 30.1 30.9 31.7 31.8 31.1 29.1 29.6 32.4 32.4 30.9 Total Oil Production 97.4 98.2 99.4 101.7 102.1 100.4 98.4 100.1 103.0 103.4 101.2 Processing Gains 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Global Biofuels 3.3 2.9 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.5 Total Supply 103.1 103.4 105.2 107.9 107.9 106.1 104.0 106.1 109.4 109.3 107.2 OPEC Crude 27.2 27.5 28.2 29.0 29.0 28.4 27.1 27.4 29.6 29.6 28.4 OPEC NGLs 1 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.6 Non-OPEC OPEC+ 17.1 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.0 17.1 16.6 17.2 17.1 17.1 17.0 Total OPEC+ 49.9 50.0 50.9 51.8 51.7 51.1 49.0 50.0 52.5 52.6 51.0 1 Includes condensates reported by OPEC countries, oil from non-conventional sources, e.g. GTL in Nigeria and non-oil inputs to Saudi Arabian MTBE. OPEC+ crude supply OPEC+ crude production fell 260 kb/d to 43.1 mb/d in February as higher supply from Gulf producers including Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia – collectively higher by 400 kb/d m-o-m – failed to offset sharply lower Russian supply. Output from the group of countries party to cuts was 90 kb/d below its quota in February; however, Kazakhstan produced well over its level due to very high compensation cuts, while Russian supply was well under its quota following ongoing attacks on refineries and moderately lower crude exports. OPEC+ Crude Oil Production OPEC+ February Crude Output vs Target mb/d mb/d (Selected Producers) (m-o-m change and total) 2.0 44.6 Kazakhstan 1.5 44.0 Iraq 1.0 43.4 0.5 42.8 Saudi Arabia 0.0 42.2 UAE -0.5 41.6 Gabon -1.0 41.0 Algeria -1.5 40.4 Kuwait Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Saudi Arabia Libya Azerbaijan Russia Iran Russia Kazakhstan Kuwait Others OPEC+ Total (RHS) kb/d -1200 -900 -600 -300 0 300 600 In a meeting on 1 March, directly following the onset of attacks in the Middle East, the OPEC+ Group of Eight (G-8) countries supported a target increase of 206 kb/d for April following a pause in the unwinding during 1Q26. Including the compensation pledges announced on 4 March, Saudi Arabia accounts for the only increase amongst OPEC Gulf producers, of 62 kb/d, with Iraq and the UAE subject to compensation cuts. March and April production from the Gulf G-8 members will be heavily dependent on whether there is a partial restoration of trade flows from the Gulf and on available storage capacities. Iraq, with little spare tank space and limited egress excepting the Strait, is expected to see crude production curtailed by at least two-thirds versus pre-crisis levels, or around 3 mb/d. Oil Market Report Supply OPEC+ Crude Oil Production (excluding condensates) (million barrels per day) Jan 2026 Feb 2026 m-o-m Feb 2026 Feb 2026 Sustainable Eff Spare Cap 1 2 Supply Supply change vs Target Implied Target Capacity vs Feb3 Algeria 0.96 0.96 0.00 -0.01 0.97 1.0 0.0 Congo 0.27 0.28 0.01 0.00 0.28 0.3 0.0 Equatorial Guinea 0.05 0.06 0.01 -0.01 0.07 0.1 0.0 Gabon 0.24 0.20 -0.05 0.02 0.18 0.2 0.0 Iraq 4.34 4.50 0.16 0.34 4.16 4.9 0.4 Kuwait 2.60 2.54 -0.06 -0.04 2.58 2.9 0.3 Nigeria 1.46 1.31 -0.15 -0.19 1.50 1.4 0.1 Saudi Arabia 10.30 10.40 0.10 0.30 10.10 12.1 1.7 UAE 3.61 3.64 0.03 0.23 3.40 4.3 0.6 Total OPEC-9 23.83 23.89 0.06 0.65 23.24 27.1 3.2 Iran4 3.45 3.59 0.14 3.8 Libya4 1.33 1.28 -0.05 1.3 0.0 Venezuela4 0.68 0.86 0.18 1.0 0.1 Total OPEC 29.29 29.63 0.33 33.2 3.4 Azerbaijan 0.47 0.47 0.00 -0.08 0.55 0.5 0.0 Kazakhstan 1.36 1.43 0.07 0.46 0.97 1.8 0.4 Mexico5 1.42 1.41 -0.01 1.5 0.1 Oman 0.81 0.80 -0.01 0.00 0.81 0.8 0.0 Russia 9.26 8.55 -0.71 -1.02 9.57 9.4 Others6 0.72 0.78 0.06 -0.09 0.87 0.9 0.1 Total Non-OPEC 14.03 13.44 -0.59 -0.74 12.77 14.8 0.5 OPEC+ 18 in Nov 2022 deal5 36.45 35.92 -0.53 -0.09 36.01 40.4 3.7 Total OPEC+ 43.33 43.07 -0.26 48.0 3.9 1 Includes extra voluntary curbs and compensation cutback volumes. 4 Iran, Libya, Venezuela exempt from cuts. 2 Capacity levels can be reached within 90 days and sustained for an extended period. 5 Mexico excluded from OPEC+ compliance. 3 Production over estimated capacity stated as zero. 6 Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Sudan and South Sudan. In March, Saudi Arabia started quickly transitioning flows to the 7 mb/d East-West pipeline (Petroline) to the port of Yanbu, but the country’s oil fields and infrastructure remain vulnerable to Iranian attacks. Following repeated attacks on the Ras Tanura refinery, Saudi officials reported on 7 March that the country had intercepted drones launched toward the 1 mb/d Shaybah oil field, marking Iran’s first attempt to disrupt production deep inside Saudi territory. Saudi Arabia increased crude production by 100 kb/d m-o-m to 10.4 mb/d in February – its highest level since 3Q22, as the country pushed out increased volumes onto the market ahead of the start of the crisis. On 23 February 2026, Saudi Aramco halted all LPG exports from the Juaymah terminal after structural damage caused the collapse of a trestle carrying propane and butane pipelines affecting around 180 kb/d of LPG exports. Aramco sold its first cargoes of Jafurah condensate, set to load in March out of Yanbu. Saudi crude supply is forecast to decline by 2.4 mb/d to 8 mb/d in March. Neutral Zone production, shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, declined 20 kb/d in February to 520 kb/d. Kuwait has no options to bypass Hormuz. In 2025, the country exported 1.4 mb/d of crude and 1.1 mb/d of products with total oil of 2.5 mb/d transiting the key waterway. At the start of the war, the country had about 14 days of storage available if it continued producing at pre-conflict rates. With loadings at a standstill in early March, and refinery crude processing rates restricted, Kuwait started to curtail production and reduce the rate of oil flowing into storage. In February, Kuwait crude output fell 60 kb/d m-o-m to 2.5 mb/d. In March Kuwaiti crude supply is forecast to decline by 810 kb/d 1.7 mb/d. Oil Market Report Supply Saudi Arabia Crude Supply Kuwait Crude Supply mb/d mb/d 11.0 2.9 10.5 2.8 10.0 2.7 9.5 2.6 9.0 2.5 8.5 8.0 2.4 7.5 2.3 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 UAE crude supply in 2025 averaged 3.5 mb/d, of which 1 mb/d was sent from Abu Dhabi onshore fields to Fujairah via the ADCOP pipeline and about 2 mb/d were exported via the Strait of Hormuz. The original design capacity of the ADCOP line is 1.5 mb/d with a reported 1.8 mb/d maximum capacity. ADNOC onshore production operations are continuing with flows through the ADCOP pipeline averaging 1.8 mb/d from 1-10 March. However, the company began reducing production at its offshore fields due to limited storage capacity and no connection to the ADCOP pipeline. Last year, offshore fields exported over 1.8 mb/d through the Strait. Curtailed volumes affected so far are estimated at over 1 mb/d. In February, the UAE increased production 30 kb/d m-o-m to 3.6 mb/d. Crude production is forecast to fall by 900 kb/d to 2.7 mb/d in March. United Arab Emirates Crude Supply Iraq Crude Supply mb/d mb/d 3.8 4.6 3.6 4.4 3.4 4.2 3.2 4.0 3.0 3.8 2.8 3.6 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Iraq relies almost entirely on the Strait of Hormuz for its exports and has minimal storage capacity. At the start of the conflict, Iraq had only a few days of available crude storage and even less at its southern ports in Basrah. As tanks quickly filled after port loadings stopped, officials announced on 2 March a 700 kb/d reduction in output from the supergiant field, Rumaila, along with curtailment at the West Qurna-2 (450 kb/d) and Maysan (325 kb/d) fields. While the country recently exported around 200 kb/d via the Iraqi-Türkiye Pipeline (ITP) line from Kurdistan, Iranian attacks on the region have curtailed production from Kirkuk fields and limited flows through the ITP. The original design capacity of the ITP was 1.6 mb/d, but the pipelines in the system have sustained severe damage and disrepair since they were commissioned in 1976. In February, Iraq stated it had begun rehabilitating the portion of the line on federal territory, showcasing the country’s desire to maintain a northern export route for oil flows. Iraq’s Strategic Pipeline, allowing 850 kb/d to flow north from Oil Market Report Supply southern fields needs repair. Last year, Iraq produced 4.3 mb/d of crude and exported 3.7 mb/d, with an estimated 3 mb/d already shut in at the time of writing. Iraqi crude output increased 160 kb/d m-o-m to 4.3 mb/d in February. We forecast Iraqi crude supply to fall by 3 mb/d m-o-m in March to 1.5 mb/d. At the start of the conflict, Iran had about 25 days of available storage capacity assuming production levels on pace with last year’s output. With substantial available storage and several vessels carrying Iranian crude still transiting the Strait of Hormuz in early March, we estimate limited levels of production curtailment, assuming upstream and port infrastructure are not damaged. Iran crude production hit a recent high in February, Iran Crude Supply mb/d up 140 kb/d m-o-m to 3.6 mb/d. Iranian 3.8 crude oil exports surged 750 kb/d to 2.2 mb/d just ahead of the crisis – the 3.4 highest level since July 2018, while heavily drawing down inventories. The production is forecast is unchanged at 3.3 mb/d in 3.0 March. 2.6 Bahrain is entirely dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for oil product exports from its 2.2 refinery. It has limited storage and suffered Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan several rounds of attacks in early March. 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 The country scaled back production after a drone strike on its Sitra refinery. Saudi Aramco operates the shared offshore Abu Safah field and recovers Bahrain’s share via pipeline. These pipeline shipments are likely severely reduced as Saudi manages offshore field production. Bahrain crude supply inched up 10 kb/d to 170 kb/d in February. We forecast Bahrain crude supply to fall 80 kb/d to 90 kb/d in March. Oman crude production eased by 10 kb/d m-o-m to 800 kb/d. Drone attacks damaged fuel tanks at the Port of Duqm, but this was quickly contained and bunkering operations continue normally. We maintain our crude supply forecast for Oman at 810 kb/d for 2026. Kazakhstan crude output recovered 70 kb/d to 1.4 mb/d in February. Production from the Tengiz field, following a fire at a power plant that disrupted supply at the end of January, was reported to have returned to pre-disruption levels by the end of February. Kazakh crude loadings from the CPC terminal increased 130 kb/d to 980 kb/d in February, 420 kb/d below last year’s average, according to Kpler data. On the night of 1-2 March, the Novorossiysk port was attacked again with limited damage to the CPC terminal itself; however, further attacks raise the risk of reduced loadings from the terminal. Production is forecast to rise by 390 kb/d to 1.8 mb/d in March. Azerbaijan crude supply was flat in February at 470 kb/d. On 6 March, the country reported an unsuccessful attempt by Iran to damage equipment and disrupt flows on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. The BTC pipeline is the primary outlet for Azeri oil supplies to the market, along with minor volumes of Russian, Turkmen and Kazakh volumes, transporting an average of 500 kb/d of crude and condensates last year. Russia’s crude production in February fell 710 kb/d to 8.6 mb/d, 300 kb/d below forecast and 1 mb/d below its quota. Continued attacks on the Russian refining sector and export infrastructure reduced estimated refining runs by about 300 kb/d to 5.1 mb/d and contributed to a 410 kb/d m-o-m drop in crude exports. While demand for Russian oil may increase due to the large-scale disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies, our forecast for the country remains unchanged for now, averaging 9.3 mb/d for the remainder of 2026. Oil Market Report Supply Russia’s Total Export Revenues Plunge to Fresh Low in February Russian crude and oil product exports plunged by 850 kb/d m-o-m to 6.6 mb/d in February, marking their lowest level since the start of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Export revenues fell by $1.5 billion m‑o‑m to $9.5 billion, also the lowest level since the invasion began. The attacks on the Brody pumping station on 27 January halting Druzhba pipeline flows to Hungary and the Slovak Republic through Ukraine and lower exports to India pushed Russian crude oil exports down to 4.2 mb/d (-410 kb/d m-o-m). Seaborne product shipments fell by a sharp 440 kb/d to 2.4 mb/d, partially offsetting gains seen over the previous two months. The drop was mainly driven by declines of around 170 kb/d in gasoil exports and 220 kb/d in fuel oil. Gasoline seaborne exports resumed in February, with shipments averaging 20 kb/d following a two‑month embargo. The Urals FOB Primorsk price rose by $2.75/bbl m‑o‑m to $42.81/bbl, remaining below the new EU price cap of $44.10/bbl introduced on 2 February. Russian Crude and Product Exports (mb/d) 2022 2023 2024 2025 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 m -o-m y-o-y Total Crude 5.10 4.91 4.78 4.78 4.66 5.00 4.62 4.21 -0.41 -0.45 pipeline and rail 1.85 1.40 1.31 1.31 1.24 1.26 1.25 1.08 -0.16 -0.38 seaborne 3.25 3.52 3.47 3.47 3.42 3.74 3.37 3.13 -0.24 -0.07 Total Products 2.98 2.97 2.72 2.57 2.26 2.59 2.86 2.41 -0.44 -0.33 Gasoline 0.16 0.21 0.17 0.12 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.09 0.02 -0.07 Gasoil 0.95 0.97 0.88 0.82 0.73 1.00 1.02 0.85 -0.17 -0.25 Resid+VGO 1.07 1.02 0.95 0.87 0.77 0.71 0.97 0.75 -0.22 -0.05 Jet-Kero 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 -0.01 0.01 Naphtha+NGLs+LPG 0.65 0.64 0.59 0.60 0.59 0.70 0.71 0.65 -0.07 0.01 Total 8.08 7.88 7.50 7.35 6.91 7.58 7.47 6.62 -0.85 -0.78 Total Revenue ($Bn) 252.83 188.53 192.33 158.09 10.97 10.92 10.98 9.51 -1.47 -4.00 … of w hich crude 146.51 118.49 123.28 101.25 6.92 6.82 6.56 5.90 -0.66 -2.51 … of w hich product 106.32 70.04 69.04 56.83 4.05 4.10 4.42 3.61 -0.80 -1.49 Sources: IEA, Kpler, Argus Media Group. Product prices increased, with gasoil up $5.89/bbl m‑o‑m to $71.01/bbl and fuel oil rising $2.75/bbl to $31.56/bbl. Despite higher prices, the sharp fall in export volumes pushed total export revenues down by $1.5 billion m‑o‑m to $9.5 billion, the lowest level since 2021. This included declines of $660 million in crude revenues and $800 million Urals Differentials in product revenues. $/bbl -20 Seaborne crude export loadings to China fell by -25 90 kb/d m-o-m in February, yet China received -30 imports of 220 kb/d more than the month before, of 1.9 mb/d. The increase resulted in an 8 mb -35 drawdown of Russian crude volumes on water. -40 Overall, Chinese imports of Russian oil were up -45 by around 700 kb/d compared with November -50 Feb-10 Feb-17 Feb-24 Mar-03 Mar-10 2025. By contrast, loadings to India remained Urals vs Dubai curtailed at around 1 mb/d last month (-50 kb/d Urals vs North Sea Dated m-o-m), roughly two-thirds of early 2025 levels, Source: Argus Media Group. due to sanctions and restrictions on EU product imports derived from Russian feedstocks. Oil Market Report Supply Events in the Middle East have had a significant impact on the Russian market, translating into a sharp $17.35/bbl increase in Urals FOB Primorsk prices between 27 February and 10 March, to $58.29/bbl. While outright crude prices surged, the differential versus North Sea Dated remained broadly unchanged. The situation is markedly different for Dubai, where the spread widened by $4/bbl in a single day between 4-5 March to -$32.90/bbl and reaching -$46.89/bbl on 10 March, reflecting disruptions to flows through the Strait. The United States agreed to allow India to purchase available Russian crude and refined products loaded before March 5 for the next 30 days. A total 12.2 mb of Russian crude oil is currently held in floating storage, of which around 3.6 mb is near Indian waters. An additional 46.5 mb is in transit with no known destinations. India imported around 2.7 mb/d of Middle Eastern crude via the Strait of Hormuz in February – the highest level since April 2022 – after which it increasingly shifted purchases toward Russian barrels. The recent swing back toward Middle Eastern crude represents an increase of roughly 700 kb/d compared with November 2025 coinciding with China’s Russian crude imports surge. African OPEC+ crude supply fell by 40 kb/d in February to 4.4 mb/d as modest declines were seen across major producers Nigeria, Libya and Algeria. Nigerian crude output dipped by 150 kb/d m-o-m to 1.3 mb/d due to scheduled maintenance at Shell’s Bonga field from early February through mid-March. Nigeria announced the first sales of the new Cawthorne crude grade, a light, sweet stream similar to Bonny Light for March 2026, following the October 2025 commissioning of the floating storage and offloading (FSO) Cawthorne, Nigeria’s first wholly owned FSO, for OML 18. Libyan crude output declined by 50 kb/d to 1.3 mb/d in February. Crude exports gained 90 kb/d m-o-m while stocks drew. An oil pipeline outage at the Es Sider port cut flows from the terminal by about 50 kb/d but declines were offset by stronger exports from other ports. Algerian crude supply stayed flat at 960 kb/d. Combined output from Sudan and South Sudan increased by 50 kb/d to 160 kb/d. Crude loadings out of Port Sudan port rose 110 kb/d to 210 kb/d, the highest export level on record, following months of conflict disrupting supply from South Sudan to the port. Venezuela crude output rose 180 kb/d m-o-m to nearly 860 kb/d in February, following a downturn in exports in January, which was revised down by 100 kb/d to 680 kb/d based on Venezuela Crude Supply kb/d updated crude export data. On 1200 10 February, the US Department of The 1100 Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets 1000 Control (OFAC) issued General Licenses (GL) 48, 30B, and 46A, creating a 900 framework that allows American 800 companies and US-incorporated 700 international subsidiaries to extract, 600 transport, refine, and export Venezuelan 500 oil under clarified payment rules for Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan existing agreements, while also 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 permitting the provision of goods, technology, and services needed for upstream and midstream operations. On 13 February, OFAC further expanded this authority through GL 49, enabling negotiations of new contingent oil and gas contracts, and GL 50, which authorises Oil Market Report Supply BP, Chevron, Eni, Repsol, and Shell to conduct oil and gas transactions under US-governed contracts, subject to strict payment routing and reporting requirements. These measures collectively open the door for renewed commercial engagement with Venezuela’s energy sector. On 6 March, Shell announced that it had signed contracts for Venezuelan oil and natural gas exploration and production. We have lifted the country’s 2026 crude supply forecast by 50 kb/d to 980 kb/d amid a continued return of Venezuelan crude exports to the market, reversing upstream shut-ins, particularly in the Faja, and following company guidance from Chevron and Repsol on 2026 production growth. Non-OPEC+ The United States led 590 kb/d of monthly non-OPEC+ gains in February, bringing output to 55.4 mb/d, as shale operators returned barrels to the market following January’s freeze. Additional recoveries were noted in Brazil and Indonesia after maintenance and a fire at Rokan in Sumatra, respectively. A further 1.1 mb/d increase is expected from February through to the end of the year. Non-OPEC+ Change in Monthly Oil Total Non-OPEC+ Supply mb/d Supply Relative to Dec 2025 mb/d Annual Change 2.0 3 1.0 2 0.0 1 -1.0 0 -2.0 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26 Oct-26 -1 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 United States Canada Brazil Argentina US NGL US Crude Canada Norway Biofuels Guyana Brazil Guyana Other Net Others Total Note: Other Non-OPEC+ is inclusive of biofuels on this chart. We forecast non-OPEC+ volumes to increase by an average 1.2 mb/d to 56.2 mb/d in 2026. The Americas Quintet will continue to account for the overwhelming majority of gains (1 mb/d). Qatar has been revised down this month due to shut-in production following attacks on its energy infrastructure. Limited upside to Output from Producers Outside of the Middle East in 2026 We see limited short-term incremental upside to Trans Mountain System Flows and Capacity kb/d the non-OPEC+ forecast, with Canadian oil 900 sands, US LTO and its associated NGLs as the 750 only possible sources of meaningful additions. 600 Most operators face limitations in terms of 450 project cycle times, equipment availability or 300 egress. 150 In Canada, flows out of the Trans Mountain 0 Expansion (TMX) pipeline on the west coast Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 Jan-26 US Land US Water China slowed over the last few months but rebounded Other Canada Prelim March by more than 100 kb/d in early March. Even with Note: Piped exports to PADD 5 via Sumas terminal. Canada includes domestic crude and product flows, estimated beyond CER data availability. Sources: Kpler, Canadian Energy Regulator, US EIA. Oil Market Report Supply the recent jump in exports, another 100 kb/d is still estimated to be available and could be maintained by deferred oil sands spring maintenance for the next quarter. US LTO has historically been the short-term supply relief valve, but the industry has gone through an era of consolidation and capital discipline, reducing its responsiveness to price signals. So far, we have seen little appetite from producers to significantly ramp up drilling or completions, but if available equipment, manpower and a queue of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) were tapped within three months, we estimate an additional 380 kb/d of supply could be brought online by the end of the year. US LTO Forecast Comparison US LPG Exports by Destination and mb/d mb/d Capacity 10.5 4.0 3.5 10.0 3.0 2.5 9.5 2.0 1.5 9.0 1.0 0.5 8.5 0.0 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Jan-26 8.0 Asia Europe RoW Capacity Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Jan-26 Notes: Assumes ET Nederland flexport expansion is split 100 kb/d ethane and 150 kb/d LPG. EPD NRT flexport phase 2 is 360 kb/d LPG, not 180 kb/d ethane. High Case Cur OMR Sources: Kpler, East Daley Analytics, Company reporting Looking across the oil spectrum to NGLs, the approximately 1.5 mb/d of LPG normally passing through the Strait of Hormuz could not be fully replaced by alternative sources but data from Kpler suggest that at least two very large gas carriers (VLGC) have rerouted toward the United States. The United States is the largest LPG producer in the world and exported an average of 2.3 mb/d in 2025. Data from East Daley Analytics and company reports show that there is approximately 450 kb/d of spare LPG export capacity centred in PADD 3, with sailing times of 5-8 weeks to Asian markets. Elsewhere, some offshore producers may opt to defer maintenance or accelerate their workover, intervention or infill drilling programmes. While that work will affect asset-level and company earnings, any additional volumes will likely only be marginal. US oil production rose by 450 kb/d m-o-m in February to 21 mb/d, recovering most of the January losses from winter storm Fern, with the remainder of the flows expected to complete their rebound in March. Crude output was up by 240 kb/d on the month to 13.6 mb/d, with 290 kb/d of LTO growth more than offsetting a 30 kb/d dip in federal offshore supply. NGLs increased by 220 kb/d to 7.3 mb/d. In December, the latest month for which official data are available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), total US supply fell by 370 kb/d m-o-m to 21.4 mb/d. Crude production dropped by 130 kb/d to 13.7 mb/d, with a decline in Lower 48 output of 180 kb/d. Federal offshore volumes rose by 40 kb/d. NGLs plummeted by 250 kb/d m-o-m to 7.6 mb/d on reduced East Coast (PADD 1) and Midcontinent (PADD 2) processing. Total US oil supply is set to increase by 370 kb/d this year to 21.6 mb/d on average, building on the 800 kb/d of gains in 2025. Both crude and NGL growth will decelerate, to 120 kb/d and 250 kb/d, respectively. US crude increases of 120 kb/d this year will be split between federal offshore, LTO and Alaskan volumes. Gains of 80 kb/d from federal offshore production are led by capacity ramp ups while the Oil Market Report Supply startup of Pikka will help buoy Alaskan output by 50 kb/d. With other Lower 48 fields declining by 70 kb/d. Meanwhile, US LTO growth has been revised up by 80 kb/d to 60 kb/d on the year and NGLs growth has been adjusted higher by 40 kb/d. US Crude Supply US NGLs Supply mb/d mb/d 14.0 8.5 13.8 8.0 13.6 7.5 13.4 13.2 7.0 13.0 6.5 12.8 6.0 12.6 12.4 5.5 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2023 2024 2025 2026 2023 2024 2025 2026 These revisions are supported by plunging Waha natural gas pricing creating a domestic ethane premium and rising international propane prices. These factors combined with steeper backwardation and higher prices across the forward curve – with WTI December 2026 up more than $10/bbl – will incentivise the optimisation of existing infrastructure, improve the attractiveness of hedging programmes for the balance of 2026 and 2027 and result in increased activity later in the year. Canadian supply rose by 30 kb/d m-o-m in February, to 6.5 mb/d, as a recovery in NGLs outweighed a small loss in crude volume. January saw output fall by 290 kb/d as harsh weather affected oil sands, upgraders and NGLs. Following gains of 260 kb/d in 2025, oil production is forecast to grow by 80 kb/d this year to 6.4 mb/d on average. Canada Total Supply Brazil Supply mb/d mb/d 7.00 4.4 6.75 4.2 6.50 4.0 6.25 3.8 6.00 3.6 5.75 5.50 3.4 5.25 3.2 5.00 3.0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2023 2024 2025 2026 2023 2024 2025 2026 Brazilian production rose by 80 kb/d m-o-m in February, to 4.1 mb/d, based on provisional data from the Agencia Nacional do Petroleo (ANP). This follows official ANP data that showed supply fell by 60 kb/d in January. February and March volumes have been revised up by 320 kb/d and 110 kb/d, respectively, on updated maintenance assumptions with annual growth adjusted higher by 30 kb/d to 310 kb/d. This would see Brazil average 4.2 mb/d for 2026. Oil Market Report Supply Argentinean supply was relatively flat for the third consecutive month in February, with crude hovering around an all-time high of 870 kb/d. Growth of 120 kb/d on the year has been driven exclusively by LTO from the Neuquén Basin, with increases of 160 kb/d more than offsetting conventional declines over the year. Annual gains of 105 kb/d are expected this year, bringing crude output to 890 kb/d and NGLs to 160 kb/d. North Sea volumes rose by 70 kb/d m-o-m in February, split almost evenly between the United Kingdom and Norway. UK production was up 30 kb/d on the month to 710 kb/d and Norway supply increased by 40 kb/d to 2.2 mb/d. Annual UK output is expected to be flat this year at 720 kb/d, while Norwegian volumes are set to grow by 140 kb/d to 2.2 mb/d. North Sea loading programmes for key grades (BFOE plus Troll and Johan Sverdrup) were finalised at 1.2 mb/d for February and March. April is now scheduled – also at 1.2 mb/d, up 20 kb/d on the month – with decreases in Sverdrup and Ekofisk more than offset by gains in Forties loadings. Compared with a year ago, April loadings are down 110 kb/d, primarily on lower Johan Sverdrup volumes. Including Johan Castberg from the Barents Sea, loading schedules from December through April are relatively stable at 1.4 mb/d, with Castberg offtake set to increase to 210 kb/d next month. Qatari oil supply was relatively flat on the month in February at 1.8 mb/d, of which 140 kb/d was unconventional gas-to-liquids (GTLs), 420 kb/d NGLs, 690 kb/d condensates and 560 kb/d crude oil. On 2 March, Qatar Energy announced a complete halt to LNG production after Iranian strikes on Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City, effectively shutting in all associated field condensate and NGL output as well as moderate volumes of crude oil. With export outlets closed, Qatari crude oil production is currently limited to use at the Umm Said refinery, while the Ras Laffan condensate splitters have been taken offline. Officials have since stated that exports will only resume after a ceasefire. This Report has revised Qatari output down over the next three months. This results in an estimated fall of 1.5 mb/d in March to 350 kb/d, with volumes recovering to 1 mb/d in April and 1.8 mb/d in May. The annualised impact amounts to 230 kb/d, bringing output to 1.6 mb/d on the year. Qatar Supply Angola Supply mb/d mb/d 2.00 1.25 1.75 1.20 1.50 1.15 1.25 1.10 1.00 1.05 0.75 0.50 1.00 0.25 0.95 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2023 2024 2025 2026 2023 2024 2025 2026 Azule energy announced the start-up of Ndungu in late February, part of the 180 kb/d Agogo Integrated West Hub (IWH) within Angola’s Block 15/06. The field came online earlier than expected and is set to ramp up to 60 kb/d over the course of this year. Angolan oil supply is forecast to grow by 40 kb/d in 2026 to average 1.1 mb/d. Oil Market Report Refining Refining Overview The short-term outlook for global crude processing has become highly uncertain, with more than 4 mb/d of crude distillation capacity in the Middle East either already shut down or at risk of closure in the coming days. Already strong OECD utilisation rates and reports of government restrictions on product exports in Asia leave little room for incremental processing rates elsewhere. Precautionary run cuts outside the Gulf are increasingly evident, with refineries declaring force majeure on exports. Consequently, March crude runs forecasts are cut by 4.3 mb/d and 2Q26 by 1.8 mb/d. Although the situation remains fluid, for now we estimate 2026 runs will be flat y-o-y at 83.8 mb/d, down 800 kb/d from last month’s Report. Global Refining Crude Throughput Middle East Crude Throughput mb/d mb/d 88 10.5 86 9.5 84 8.5 82 80 7.5 78 6.5 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2023 2024 2025 2026 2023 2024 2025 2026 Refinery margins surged globally in the wake of the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, returning to levels last seen after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The loss of Middle East product exports has repriced product arbitrages to attract additional barrels to import locations and incentivise a shift in refinery yields. The epicentre of these adjustments has occurred in global jet fuel cracks that trebled from February levels, while diesel cracks are 50% higher. Light Sweet Cracking Margin - Daily NWE Light Sweet Cracking Margin - Weekly $/bbl $/bbl 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 Mar 25 Jun 25 Sep 25 Dec 25 Mar 26 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov NW Europe US Gulf Coast Singapore 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Oil Market Report Refining Regional refining developments Global crude runs from December through to February were 1.9 mb/d higher on average y-o-y. However, the collapse in Middle East throughputs in March will, in conjunction with planned maintenance already underway in other refining centres, plunge global runs to a y-o-y contraction of 3 mb/d for the month. Three factors are driving the decline in Middle Eastern crude runs:  Firstly, Iranian attacks on refining facilities have sharply reduced crude runs at several refineries, with operations curtailed by damage to processing units and the need to extinguish fires on site or for precautionary reasons. Amongst others, Saudi Arabia’s 550 kb/d Ras Tanura refinery was attacked on 2 March and again on 4 March, Bahrain’s 400 kb/d Sitra refinery was hit by drones on 8 March, and the UAE’s 820 kb/d Ruwais refinery was attacked on 10 March, resulting in either partial or a full shutdown.  The loss of crude, natural gas or power supplies to some refineries, particularly in Iraq but also in Qatar, has further reduced regional crude runs.  Lastly, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz leaves the region’s 4 mb/d of export-orientated refineries unable to secure vessels to load cargoes. Given the relatively limited product storage capacity – which is estimated to be two weeks of production at best – refineries have been forced to cut processing rates as they approach product tank tops. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more of a binding constraint this will become. Some offsets within the region may be possible, as countries that import products, notably gasoline, source cargoes from neighbouring states. This contraction in regional crude runs is dwarfed by the potential loss of 10-15 mb/d crude exports due to the disruption in flows through the Strait. In particular, the potential to sustain runs in Asia will rely on the availability of continued crude supplies. Arguably, reports of precautionary run cuts in Asia will further constrain global product supplies. For specific products and locations the impact of an export hiatus will be significant – see Middle East Product Exports: The Cornerstone of Product Supplies for so Many. Since the start of March, regions relying on Middle East exports have been seeking alternatives to ensure continuity of product supply. However, the Middle East is typically the lowest cost source of supply globally. The scale of the potential loss of products from international markets is so large that prices have adjusted rapidly by steepening the backwardated structure to spur product stock draws and increase arbitrages to meet urgent short-term requirements. Middle East Product Exports: The Cornerstone of Product Supplies for so Many The Middle East supplies either refined products, LPG, lubricants or polymers to virtually every region in the world. Trade data covering exports from countries affected by the suspension of shipping via the Strait of Hormuz (including Iran) point to net exports of clean and dirty refined products from the region in 2025 averaging 3.3 mb/d. A further 1.5 mb/d of LPG was exported outside the region, however, much of this volume originated from the fractionation of associated NGLs, rather than from refinery production. The start-up of several export-orientated refineries in recent years, e.g. Kuwait’s 615 kb/d Al Zour facility, and the expansion to 400 kb/d of Bahrain’s Sitra refinery adds to the long- established supply of products from the 465 kb/d Saudi Aramco Total Refining and Petrochemical Company (SATORP) and the 305 kb/d Saudi Aramco Jubail Refinery Company (SASREF) refineries in Saudi Arabia. Elsewhere, Qatar’s 300 kb/d of condensate splitting capacity at Ras Laffan exports naphtha, jet fuel and gasoil/diesel. Additionally, exports of products from the 820 kb/d Ruwais refinery Oil Market Report Refining in the UAE supplement these volumes, as do the exports from Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC)’s 210 kb/d condensate splitting capacity in Dubai. However, the UAE also imports products, such as gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, as well as fuel oil to meet bunker demand into Dubai and Fujairah. Similarly, Iraq also imports products, although these volumes have dwindled in recent months as domestic refining activity has ramped up. Countries within the region remain largely balanced in terms of gasoline trade, which is in stark contrast to the prodigious exports of LPG, naphtha, jet fuel, diesel and fuel oil. Just over 50% of refined product exports are traditionally destined for Asia, with Europe and Africa accounting for a further 20% each, and Latin America the balance. 2025 Middle East Gulf Exports by Product and Destination kb/d 1,500 1,200 900 600 300 - Naphtha Gasoline Jet Fuel Gasoil/Diesel Fuel Oil LPG Asia Pacific Americas Europe Africa Source: Kpler Note: Export volumes aggregated by destination region. Only export volumes sourced from within the Middle East Gulf (including Iran). Viewed through the lens of regional import dependency, Asia relied on the Middle East for around 50% of its LPG import needs in 2025, with the remainder sourced mainly from the United States. Asia absorbs almost 100% of the Middle East’s LPG exports, with around 60% of these volumes destined for India, predominantly for domestic cooking needs. An additional 25% goes to China for use as petrochemical feedstock. Furthermore, Asia secures two-thirds of its 1.8 mb/d of naphtha imports from the Middle East, with no other region supplying more than 10% of the total volume. Similar to LPG, Middle East naphtha exports head exclusively to Asia, with 95% of volumes absorbed by Korea, Japan, ASEAN nations and China, almost exclusively as a petrochemical feedstock. Middle distillates are mostly exported to markets in Asia and the Atlantic Basin, with Europe heavily reliant on Middle Eastern jet fuel supplies and to a lesser extent diesel to meet its structural shortfall. Middle East exports of jet fuel to OECD Europe averaged 280 kb/d in 2025, accounting for 60% of all imports and just under a quarter of regional demand. Sourcing alternative supplies of jet fuel and diesel is problematic, with large parts of the global refining system already maximising middle distillate yields. European markets source additional jet fuel volumes from Asia, notably India, Korea and China. Refineries in these countries are reportedly facing government-imposed export restrictions that will frustrate import-dependent regions in securing sufficient volumes. Prices will need to continue to adjust to allocate scarce resources between competing buyers. Developments in the Middle East lower our March regional estimate for refinery throughputs by 3.2 mb/d and April by 970 kb/d and reduce regional crude runs by 350 kb/d on average in 2026. The forecast adjustment assumes a four-week disruption to Middle East shipping activity and that no further lasting damage occurs to the region’s refining infrastructure. Consequently, most of the cuts Oil Market Report Refining in crude runs results from refineries needing to preserve operational flexibility and filling available product tankage to the top of normal operating ranges – typically not more than 60% of total product storage. This allows sufficient tankage space for when refineries restarts are possible. We have assumed that units will be kept on hot recirculation for a quick restart, once refineries can recommence export loadings. However, where refineries stop processing following attacks it is more likely that they will enter a full shutdown. Should the war and disruptions to trade flows drag on, the impact on refinery activity will extend beyond the disruptions we have assumed in this Report, which are limited to March and April. For now, we have lowered runs assessments in 2Q26 for India, China, Singapore, Japan, Korea and Thailand, based on reports of precautionary run cuts to preserve crude stocks. Impacts in 3Q26 runs and cuts in other regions are not included in this month’s assessment and present material upside to the assumed scale of disruptions. Consequently, the March refining throughput assessment is lowered to 79.7 mb/d, down 4.3 mb/d from last month’s Report, while 2Q26 is reduced by 1.8 mb/d. The March throughput level represents a decline of 3 mb/d y-o-y, while global oil demand is forecast to be 60 kb/d lower y-o-y during the month. This implies significant product draws are necessary to achieve market balance, again highlighting the loss of product supply. Global Refinery Crude Throughput1 (million barrels per day) 2023 2024 Dec-25 4Q25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 1Q26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 2025 2026 Americas 18.7 19.1 20.4 19.6 19.6 19.0 19.1 19.3 18.9 19.4 19.9 19.4 19.4 Europe 11.4 11.3 11.7 11.2 11.1 11.3 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.2 Asia Oceania 5.9 5.7 6.3 5.9 6.2 5.9 5.4 5.8 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.7 Total OECD 36.0 36.1 38.4 36.8 37.0 36.3 35.5 36.2 35.4 35.6 36.5 36.4 36.3 Eurasia 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.3 Non-OECD Europe 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 China 14.8 14.5 14.7 14.9 14.9 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.1 14.0 15.2 14.8 14.8 Other Asia 10.5 10.6 11.0 10.6 11.1 10.9 10.4 10.8 9.8 9.8 10.5 10.7 10.6 Latin America 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.7 Middle East 8.7 9.3 9.8 9.5 9.9 9.8 6.8 8.8 8.6 10.0 10.2 9.5 9.6 Africa 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Non-OECD 46.3 46.7 48.4 47.3 48.5 47.7 44.2 46.8 44.6 46.1 48.6 47.5 47.5 Total 82.3 82.9 86.7 84.1 85.4 84.0 79.7 83.0 80.0 81.8 85.1 83.9 83.8 Y-O-Y change 1.1 0.6 1.9 1.1 2.3 1.6 -3.0 0.2 -2.4 -0.4 -0.1 1.0 0.0 1 Preliminary and estimated runs based on capacity, known outages, economic runcuts and global demand forecast. OECD refinery activity OECD crude throughputs are expected to dip in March to 35.5 mb/d, as the combination of planned maintenance in Europe and precautionary run cuts in Asia more than offset the slight recovery in the Americas. This level of throughputs represents a cumulative 2.8 mb/d decline from December’s six-year high of 38.4 mb/d, as OECD Atlantic Basin maintenance peaks. Preliminary data for January indicate that runs fell 1.4 mb/d m-o-m to 37 mb/d as the cold snap in North America cut US throughputs by 550 kb/d, while the renewed reliability issues cut Mexican runs by 160 kb/d m-o-m. OECD regional utilisation rates at the end of 2025 had returned to the top of the historical range, albeit Asia Oceania rates have lagged the improvement seen in other regions. In part, these increases demonstrate the rationalisation of marginal capacity post the Covid-19 demand shock. In aggregate, increased OECD utilisation rates of 90% in December 2025 translates in crude runs that were only 80 kb/d below the 2019 level despite the closure of 2.6 mb/d in the intervening period. Of the three OECD regions, crude runs in the Americas are expected to be the least impacted operationally by developments in the Gulf. OECD Americas remains a net exporter of crude to Oil Market Report Refining international markets and imported less than 500 kb/d of Middle East crude in 2025. Conversely, OECD Europe imported 1.3 mb/d on average in 2025 and 4.6 mb/d went to refineries in Asia Oceania. Furthermore, as a net exporter of clean products and LPG, refineries in the Americas will see an additional call in their cargoes from importing regions. Refinery Crude Throughput and Utilisation in OECD Countries (million barrels per day) Change from Utilisation rate3 Aug 25 Sep 25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 Jan 26 Dec 25 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan 25 US1 16.94 16.46 15.53 16.63 16.99 16.44 -0.55 0.70 92% 86% Canada 1.84 1.82 1.84 1.92 1.92 1.86 -0.07 -0.03 99% 100% Chile 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.01 0.04 97% 79% Mexico 1.05 0.95 1.05 1.14 1.22 1.06 -0.16 0.17 54% 50% OECD Americas1 20.06 19.46 18.64 19.93 20.36 19.60 -0.77 0.88 89% 84% France 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.04 0.96 -0.08 -0.02 77% 79% Germany 1.79 1.69 1.72 1.73 1.69 1.60 -0.09 -0.10 84% 83% Italy 1.32 1.29 1.07 1.05 1.27 1.09 -0.18 -0.16 68% 78% Netherlands 1.04 1.00 1.08 1.12 1.07 1.07 0.00 0.04 86% 82% Spain 1.27 1.25 1.31 1.26 1.26 1.13 -0.13 -0.12 77% 85% United Kingdom 0.87 0.87 0.91 0.86 0.89 0.90 0.00 -0.21 94% 91% Other OECD Europe2 4.54 4.29 3.94 3.92 4.45 4.38 -0.06 0.28 90% 84% OECD Europe 11.85 11.42 11.06 10.98 11.68 11.14 -0.54 -0.27 84% 83% Japan 2.41 2.34 2.37 2.44 2.78 2.75 -0.03 0.20 89% 82% Korea 2.87 2.79 2.75 2.90 3.00 2.95 -0.04 0.17 83% 78% Other Asia Oceania2 0.39 0.41 0.50 0.51 0.53 0.51 -0.02 0.00 87% 86% OECD Asia Oceania 5.67 5.53 5.63 5.85 6.31 6.22 -0.09 0.38 86% 81% OECD Total 37.59 36.40 35.32 36.76 38.35 36.95 -1.40 0.99 87% 83% 1 US includes US50, OECD Americas include Chile and US territories. 2 OECD Asia Oceania includes Israel, and Other OECD Europe includes Lithuania. 3 Utilisation rate calculations are based on total feed intake for some OECD countries and may therefore exceed stated crude processing capacities. Preliminary data indicate that OECD Americas runs averaged 19.6 mb/d in January. The relatively modest impact of the cold weather on throughput boosted y-o-y growth given the heavily-impacted January 2025 baseline. Elsewhere, while Canadian and Mexican runs dipped by a combined 230 kb/d m-o-m, Chilean throughput rates hit a record of 246 kb/d, following maintenance work at the Esmeraldas refinery in 4Q25. OECD Crude Throughput OECD Americas Crude Throughput mb/d mb/d 39 21 38 20 37 19 36 18 35 34 17 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2023 2024 2025 2026 2023 2024 2025 2026 Regional refinery activity fell to 19 mbd in February but is expected to start to recover in March, as planned maintenance winds down and Mexican refineries return to service following fires at Dos Bocas and Salina Cruz. Structurally higher Mexican crude processing combined with declining crude Oil Market Report Refining output is rapidly curtailing the volume of Maya crude available for supply to US Gulf Coast (USGC) refineries, with Pemex reporting crude exports of less than 300 kb/d in January. OECD Europe crude runs dipped by 540 kb/d m-o-m in January to 11.1 mb/d, as several refinery outages exacerbated the impact of planned maintenance works. The annual contraction of 270 kb/d reflects capacity closures weighing on refinery activity in the United Kingdom and Germany. March crude throughput rates are expected to hold up well, given the rebound in refinery profitability that has lifted less sophisticated hydroskimming margins from around breakeven in February to close to $18/bbl in early March days. However, additional runs are likely subject to refineries securing additional crude supplies. OECD Europe Crude Throughput OECD Asia Oceania Crude Throughput mb/d mb/d 12.0 6.5 11.5 6.0 11.0 5.5 10.5 5.0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2023 2024 2025 2026 2023 2024 2025 2026 OECD Asia Oceania January crude runs fell marginally, to 6.2 mb/d, as refineries remained focused on meeting winter-related heating demand for kerosene, gasoil and LPG. We currently assume that limited crude availability will lower runs over the course of March, such that throughputs average 5.2 mb/d during April. Arguably, refineries in OECD Asia Oceania, and Japan in particular, are perhaps best placed to boost jet fuel/kerosene production in the coming weeks, by sustaining jet fuel/kerosene yields at seasonal high levels and postponing planned maintenance works. In combination, these measures could lift jet fuel/kerosene production, and exports by 350-400 kb/d, versus the seasonal baseline. However, given the rapidly increasing gap in the region’s crude supply chain, any move to bolster crude runs and product supply will rest wholly on access to sufficient crude supplies. Non-OECD refinery activity Estimates for March non-OECD crude throughput rates have been reduced in this Report by 4.1 mb/d to 44.2 mb/d, driven by the Middle East conflict and announcements by several refineries and governments that concerns over future crude supply arrangements have resulted in precautionary run cuts. Furthermore, reductions of 1.5 mb/d are included in this month’s assessment of 2Q26 non-OECD throughputs, driven by the loss of crude supplies which is expected to reduce April and May crude processing rates. The Middle East accounts for 3.2 mb/d, or 80%, of the downward revision to March crude runs, whereas reductions to Asian throughputs account for the bulk of the 2Q26 reductions. Disruptions to refinery activity in the Middle East and beyond will depend on resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but for now we assume flows will recover more substantially from late March onwards. Nevertheless, given the time taken to restart operations, Middle East crude throughputs Oil Market Report Refining for April have been cut by 970 kb/d. For other non-OECD regions, reports of restrictions to crude processing due to the interruption of supplies from the Gulf have been reported for India, China and Thailand. In the absence of a prompt resolution to the Strait of Hormuz transit restrictions it is likely that further precautionary run cuts will be announced. Indian refineries received a waiver on 5 March from the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control permitting the purchase for 30 days of Russian crude cargoes loaded before 5 March. This potentially allows 12 mb of crude that is anchored offshore India to be brought onshore for processing. Elsewhere, China’s substantial build in crude inventories witnessed over the past 12 months could provide a considerable cushion for their refineries, even as Iranian crude exports to the country continue to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, albeit at reduced rates and from the recently commissioned Jask terminal that sits east of the narrow passage. Non-OECD Crude Throughput China Crude Throughput mb/d mb/d 49 15.5 48 15.0 47 46 14.5 45 14.0 44 43 13.5 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2023 2024 2025 2026 2023 2024 2025 2026 Chinese crude throughputs are assumed to decline by a cumulative 840 kb/d between January and May, in line with seasonal trends, to a low point of 14 mb/d, as planned maintenance and reports of precautionary run cuts among Shandong independent refineries curtail activity levels. These refiners are heavily reliant on Iranian crude, with imports estimated at 1.3 mb/d last year. More broadly, China imported 5 mb/d of crude from the Middle East in 2025, of which Iraq and Saudi Arabia each shipped around 1.3 mb/d, with smaller volumes from the UAE, Oman, and Kuwait. For now, we assume that run cuts are just precautionary but note that China has built substantial additional crude reserves since the start of 2025 which could be drawn down in the event of a more protracted supply hiatus. Other Asia March crude runs have been Other Asia Crude Throughput trimmed this month by 430 kb/d to mb/d 10.4 mb/d to reflect the impact of 11.5 precautionary run cuts that have been reported in India, Thailand and 11.0 Singapore. Although crude markets are global in nature and cargoes move from 10.5 the Atlantic Basin into Asia and vice versa, Asia is more directly affected by 10.0 the loss of Middle East crude exports. Overall, Asia imports more than 60% of 9.5 all its crude needs from the Middle East. Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Some respite might come from further 2023 2024 2025 2026 easing of sanctions on Russian crude exports – however, these volumes would be insufficient to fully offset the interruption to supplies Oil Market Report Refining from the Gulf. Average 2Q26 forecasts are reduced by 470 kb/d, with cuts of around 700 kb/d split evenly across April and May. Product cracks and refinery margins Product cracks and refinery margins rallied sharply in early March in response to the war in the Middle East. Product market participants priced-in the prospect of materially lower exports from the Gulf relative to import requirements for both Asia and Europe. The Middle East typically acts as the lowest cost source of production for middle distillates, naphtha and LPG, but their prices immediately rallied above competing export regions, e.g. the USGC. Product Prices and Cracks ($/bbl) Prices Differentials Change Week Starting Dec Jan Feb Dec Jan Feb Jan - Feb 02-Feb 09-Feb 16-Feb 23-Feb 02-Mar Northwest Europe to North Sea Dated Gasoline 74.58 73.13 78.46 10.29 4.54 5.29 0.75 3.69 4.48 5.35 7.65 5.98 Naphtha 56.79 58.72 63.33 -7.50 -9.87 -9.83 0.04 -9.94 -10.23 -10.56 -8.59 -9.60 Jet/Kero 90.15 92.67 99.12 25.86 24.08 25.96 1.88 24.90 22.98 26.09 29.86 73.74 Diesel 87.53 89.29 96.16 23.24 20.70 23.00 2.30 21.81 19.79 22.79 27.61 52.00 LSFO 57.59 57.14 61.14 -6.70 -11.45 -12.03 -0.58 -12.10 -13.51 -12.01 -10.48 -10.10 0.5% Fuel Oil 58.10 59.56 66.13 -6.19 -9.03 -7.03 2.00 -8.84 -8.78 -6.65 -3.86 -3.32 US Gulf Coast to WTI Houston Gasoline 67.80 68.46 73.87 9.13 7.08 8.27 1.18 7.96 7.98 7.18 9.72 10.85 Naphtha 56.52 63.48 67.27 -2.15 2.10 1.67 -0.43 2.69 3.18 0.64 -0.05 -1.90 Jet/Kero 83.61 88.35 95.80 24.94 26.98 30.19 3.22 29.95 28.70 31.37 30.99 67.05 Diesel 81.79 84.07 88.74 23.12 22.70 23.14 0.44 22.13 20.89 23.69 25.96 47.50 HSFO 50.44 51.38 55.73 -8.22 -9.99 -9.87 0.13 -10.09 -9.97 -9.92 -9.50 -8.12 0.5% Fuel Oil 61.61 63.72 68.68 2.95 2.35 3.08 0.73 1.71 2.23 3.25 5.15 6.19 Singapore to Dubai Gasoline 75.68 71.42 75.29 11.29 7.44 3.69 -3.75 3.26 4.09 2.70 4.33 6.48 Naphtha 58.84 59.59 66.07 -5.55 -4.39 -5.52 -1.13 -4.83 -4.52 -6.38 -6.70 -9.36 Jet/Kero 84.36 83.36 89.03 19.98 19.38 17.43 -1.95 17.28 16.93 17.27 18.19 77.33 Diesel 82.40 82.44 89.91 18.02 18.46 18.32 -0.14 18.83 18.21 18.24 17.97 45.07 HSFO 53.08 57.23 66.71 -11.31 -6.75 -4.89 1.87 -4.00 -3.15 -3.76 -8.19 -4.23 0.5% Fuel Oil 64.36 66.35 72.99 -0.03 2.36 1.40 -0.97 0.78 1.05 2.12 1.92 4.18 Copyright @ 2026 Argus Media Group - All Rights Reserved. Note: European product cracks now include a freight cost for North Sea Dated crude to bring them in line with other regions using a CIF crude pricing basis Price increases in the first week of March were led by jet fuel in Singapore, which reached nearly $1 900/t, equal to $240/bbl, midweek. Jet fuel subsequently eased back to $1 250/t by the end of the week, in line with jet fuel pricing in Europe and the United States, with jet fuel cracks in the three regions we track stabilising in an abnormally wide $40-80/bbl range. Diesel prices also rallied sharply, pushing cracks to around $45/bbl, for a weekly gain of $25/bbl. Conversely, gasoline cracks were relatively stable, given the limited supply of gasoline on a net export basis to international markets from the region. The loss of Middle East naphtha, LPG and polymer exports should arguably have supported naphtha cracks, but these collapsed at the start of March, as crude price gains outpaced naphtha prices. More broadly, while product prices were very quick to react to the conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the rally in crude prices gained momentum towards the end of the week, pressuring cracks. Gasoline cracks improved marginally in February in the Atlantic Basin, reflecting high US stock levels and sustained exports from Europe. Singapore cracks dipped, as delivered Dubai crude pricing rallied on the back of higher freight rates. The muted response of gasoline cracks at the start Oil Market Report Refining of March is driven by high US and European stock levels, seasonally weak global demand and the marginal role the Middle East plays in global gasoline supplies, given the region oscillates between being a net importer and net exporter. Nevertheless, the rally in global crude oil prices lifted USGC gasoline prices by almost $200/t from average February levels to $830/t by mid-March. $/bbl Regional Gasoline Cracks USGC Gasoline and Blendstock Prices $/t 30 1050 25 950 20 850 15 750 650 10 550 5 450 0 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Reformate Alkylate NW Europe USGC Singapore Regular Gasoline Naphtha Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Naphtha cracks plunged in March as all three regional markets failed to keep pace with the rally in crude prices. Asian markets are heavily reliant on the Middle East for two-thirds of their naphtha imports and the muted price response thus far is arguably a characteristic of the market, with price-sensitive petrochemical feedstock buyers unwilling to commit to prices that are uneconomic for ethylene production. However, with competing feedstocks such as LPG also heavily impacted, propane remains at close to parity to naphtha, as was the case for all of February. $/bbl Regional Naphtha Cracks Propane-Naphtha Prices (Japan CFR) $/t % 10 1000 110% 5 900 105% 0 800 100% -5 700 95% -10 600 90% -15 500 85% -20 400 80% Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Mar 25 Jun 25 Sep 25 Dec 25 NW Europe USGC Singapore Naphtha Propane Price Ratio (RHS) Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Note: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Jet fuel cracks broadly trebled after hostilities broke out in March, as markets repriced to attract alternative supplies. Jet fuel prices surged in Singapore to a record $240/bbl, which pushed its crack value to almost $150/bbl. As was evident in 4Q25, following the interruption of jet fuel exports from Kuwait’s Al Zour refinery, the loss of Middle East jet fuel supplies has a global impact and competition from importing regions for alternative supplies has intensified. By mid-March European markets had reasserted themselves as the highest priced region, reflecting Europe’s structural deficit of 480 kb/d – equivalent to 30% of regional jet fuel demand – that has historically been met by imports from the Middle East, India and, on the margin, Korea and China. In contrast to Europe’s structural import needs for diesel, alternative supplies within the Atlantic Basin are severely limited. For example, the USGC typically exports 1.1 mb/d of diesel, providing ample supplies to Latin American and Europe. Oil Market Report Refining Conversely, jet fuel exports are around 190 kb/d, leaving only limited volumes be redirected to Europe via increased arbitrage values. Thus, the need to source alternative supplies shifts the onus back on Asian markets to make up the region’s shortfall. However, with reports of both Chinese and Korean refineries not committing to new export cargoes, and the prospect of weaker US West Coast crude runs as capacity closes, this will increase jet fuel USWC import needs in 2Q26. Consequently, the global jet fuel market looks set to tighten further in the coming weeks, despite wide-spread cancellations at Middle Eastern airports. Regional Jet Fuel Arbitrage Northwest Europe Jet/Kero Crack $/t (Four-Week Average) $/bbl 140 100 120 80 100 60 80 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Mar 25 Jun 25 Sep 25 Dec 25 Mar 26 Northwest Europe US Gulf Coast 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Middle East Gulf Singapore Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Note: The arbitrage is the regional price versus the lowest cost source of supply on the day, e.g. when the Middle East Gulf price is the lowest of the four regions, Europe’s arbitrage is the price difference between Europe and the Middle East Gulf. Diesel cracks rallied by $25/bbl in early March, lagging only the gains in jet fuel, to reach a range of $40-50/bbl in all three regions. European cracks remained the strongest, reflecting the region’s structural deficit, while Asian cracks also responded rapidly. Conversely, cracks on the USGC improved, but its export flows muted the increase in value as the region temporarily became the world’s cheapest source of supply. European markets are now dealing with the loss of imports from refineries that process Russian crude, as well as the drop in exports from the Middle East. These factors will support materially stronger cracks until buyers have secured their future needs from alternative sources, which appears difficult. Regional Diesel Arbitrage Northwest Europe Diesel Crack $/t (Four-Week Average) $/bbl 100 80 70 80 60 50 60 40 40 30 20 20 10 0 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Mar 25 May 25 Jul 25 Sep 25 Nov 25 Jan 26 Northwest Europe US Gulf Coast 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Middle East Gulf Singapore Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Note: The arbitrage is the regional price versus the lowest cost source of supply on the day, e.g. when the Middle East Gulf price is the lowest of the four regions, Europe’s arbitrage is the price difference between Europe and the Middle East Gulf. Oil Market Report Refining High sulphur (HSFO) and very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) cracks rallied in the first week of March as international bunker markets adapted to the loss of supplies from the Middle East. Cracks gained as much as $7/bbl, at times, but the rally in crude prices in mid-March has once again pressured cracks in the Atlantic Basin. Singapore markets saw improving cracks through the first week. Some offset will come from the shipping hiatus through the Strait that will cut bunker demand. Regional High Sulphur Fuel Oil Cracks $/bbl Regional Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil Cracks $/bbl 5 15 0 10 5 -5 0 -10 -5 -15 -10 -20 -15 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 NW Europe USGC Singapore NW Europe USGC Singapore Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Refinery margins Refining margins surged by $10-15/bbl in March, as rampant product price increases outpaced the rise in crude oil prices. Gains were led by stronger middle distillate cracks, while the slower improvement in fuel oil cracks and fall in naphtha capped the gains in cracking margins. Singapore saw the largest increase in the first week on average, but by mid-March European margins had closed the gap, as regional product markets caught up. In total, margins have returned to levels last seen in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine conflict, driven by the intense dislocations in product markets, most obviously in middle distillates. NWE Light Sweet Cracking Margin - Weekly NWE Medium Sour Cracking Margin - Weekly $/bbl $/bbl 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Northwest European margins reached a three-and-a-half-year high at the start of March at $22/bbl for cracking refineries processing sweet crude. Stronger jet fuel and diesel cracks were the main drivers of this. Having languished at close to breakeven levels in February, the dislocations in product markets and sharply higher profits should incentivise additional runs, assuming European refineries can wrap up maintenance and secure additional prompt loading crude supplies. Oil Market Report Refining USGC and US Midcontinent refining margins have been relatively insulated from the more violent gyrations in international crude and product markets. In large part, this reflects the region’s heavy reliance on domestic and Canadian crude and strong product exports to balance out robust upstream and downstream output levels. Furthermore, USGC refineries have only a marginal reliance on Middle Eastern crude. Last year average imports from the region were just 175 kb/d, equivalent to 1.3% of the combined Midcontinent and USGC crude intake. Consequently, the USGC margins no longer outperform other regions in terms of profitability, although as markets adjust to the new international flows of crude and products and with Western Canadian Select (WCS) still the cheapest source of heavy sour crude available to US refineries, the regional margin premium may return. USGC Light Sweet Cracking Margin - Weekly USGC Heavy Sour Coking Margin - Weekly $/bbl $/bbl 40 60 50 30 40 20 30 20 10 10 0 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Singapore sweet crude margins quadrupled in early March, notwithstanding the rally in WTI prices and freight rates that lifted the delivered price of US light sweet crude in Singapore by $15/bbl. In common with other regions, the sharply higher jet and diesel cracks pushed margins to three-and-a-half-year highs. Sour crude margins also made substantial gains despite the surge in delivered Dubai pricing in Asia that increased to a record premium to North Sea Dated of $12/bbl, as Dubai prompt market structure reached $18/bbl for M1-M3. Singapore margins reflected concerns that key light and middle distillate exporters such as China and Korea will curtail volumes in the coming weeks, further tightening markets. Singapore Sweet Cracking Margin - Weekly Singapore Medium Sour Cracking Margin - Weekly $/bbl $/bbl 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Source: IEA analysis based on data from Argus Media Group. Oil Market Report Stocks Stocks Overview With the war in the Middle East effectively choking off nearly 20 mb/d of Gulf crude and oil product exports, oil inventories provide a welcome buffer to offset immediate supply losses. The disruption is already being felt by refiners, industry and end-users in Asian markets. Given the longer supply routes from the Middle East to markets further afield, with cargoes shipped prior to the outbreak of hostilities still arriving in Europe, the Americas and Africa, their current shortages are less acute but will soon be felt also. In response to the massive disruptions to oil flows and supply losses, IEA member countries announced on 11 March a co-ordinated emergency stock release of an unprecedented 400 mb. The release will be the 6th in the IEA’s history and largest ever. Inventories will be made available to the market over the coming weeks and months, depending on national circumstances. IEA member countries currently hold 1.2 billion barrels of government stocks (see IEA Member Countries Agree Historic Emergency Stock Release). Global observed inventories rose by 47 mb to 8 210 mb in January, their highest level since February 2021. Roughly half of these were held in OECD countries, including both industry and government stocks. Following significant builds over the past year, China has more than 1.2 billion barrels of crude oil in tanks, covering around 120 days of their net imports. Oil on water accounted for another 2 billion barrels, with the remainder in other non-OECD countries. Global crude, NGLs and feedstocks built for a fifth consecutive month in January, by 24 mb, while products rose by 23 mb. Non-OECD total stocks surged by 53 mb, thanks to substantial crude builds in China and OPEC countries. By contrast, OECD total stocks fell by 20 mb due to a sizeable draw in commercial products (-21 mb m-o-m). Oil on water continued to rise, by 14 mb, also led by products which gained 45 mb. According to preliminary data, global observed stocks increased again in February, mainly in non-OECD countries, while oil on water drew marginally for the first time since August 2025. Total Global Observed Inventories Global Observed Inventories mb mb by Crude and Product mb 8 400 6 200 3 000 8 200 6 000 2 850 5 800 2 700 8 000 5 600 2 550 7 800 5 400 2 400 7 600 5 200 2 250 7 400 5 000 2 100 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2021 2022 2023 Crude Oil (incl. NGLs, feedstocks) Oil Products (RHS) 2024 2025 2026 Sources: IEA, Kayrros, Kpler, FEDCom/S&P Global Platts, Enterprise Sources: IEA, Kayrros, Kpler, FEDCom/S&P Global Platts, Enterprise Singapore. Singapore. The upward trend in inventories seen over the past year will come to an abrupt halt in March, despite builds in the Middle East. Disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have already forced a number of producers in the region to curtail or shut in production as domestic storage filled to their Oil Market Report Stocks limit. Oil on water in the Gulf has also piled up as tankers have been unable to exit the Strait. Some 238 laden oil tankers were sitting in the Gulf as of 11 March, holding a total of 186 mb, according to tanker tracking data. At the same time there were some 487 mb of sanctioned oil on water globally at end-February, up 116 mb from end-August and +110 mb y-o-y, that may now see increased buying interest. Of note, the US Department of the Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control on 5 March gave India a 30-day waiver to import Russian crude oil on the water as of that date. OECD industry stocks stood at 2 820 mb at the end of January, covering 62.1 days of forward demand (+1.5 days y-o-y). Despite a counter-seasonal reduction of 19.2 mb, stocks were 67 mb above a year ago. The monthly reduction was mainly due to a 20.9 mb draw in total products while crude, NGLs and feedstocks slightly increased by 1.7 mb, contrary to their seasonal trend. By region, stocks built only in OECD Europe (+9 mb), while OECD Americas and Asia Oceania drew by 18 mb and 10.1 mb, respectively. Preliminary OECD Industry Stock Change in January 2026 and Fourth Quarter 2025 January 2026 (preliminary) Fourth Quarter 2025 (million barrels) (million barrels per day) (million barrels per day) Asia Asia Asia Americas Europe Total Americas Europe Total Americas Europe Total Oceania Oceania Oceania Crude Oil 2.8 -1.4 -5.9 -4.5 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 Gasoline 18.4 7.2 1.1 26.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 Middle Distillates -4.5 -0.8 -3.4 -8.7 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 Residual Fuel Oil 0.5 1.2 -1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Other Products -39.0 0.4 -0.7 -39.3 -1.3 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 Total Products -24.6 8.1 -4.4 -20.9 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 Other Oils1 3.8 2.3 0.2 6.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Oil -18.0 9.0 -10.1 -19.2 -0.6 0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 1 Other Oils includes NGLs, feedstocks and other hydrocarbons. Industry crude oil stocks fell for a third consecutive month (-4.5 mb m-o-m) as draws in Asia Oceania (-5.9 mb) and Europe (-1.4 mb) overwhelmed a build in the Americas (+2.8 mb). Gasoline stocks jumped to the highest level since January 2021, building 26.7 mb m-o-m. The Americas and Europe remained at relatively high inventory levels for January compared to Asia Oceania. Middle distillates inventories fell counter-seasonally across all regions, by 8.7 mb in total, to the lowest January level in four years. Fuel oil rose by a modest 0.3 mb as a large drawdown in Asia Oceania (-1.4 mb) was offset by gains in Europe (+1.2 mb) and the Americas (+0.5 mb). ‘Other products’ recorded a seasonal high despite a 39.3 mb decline, led by the United States (-39.1 mb). OECD Industry Stock Revisions versus February 2026 Oil Market Report (million barrels) Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD Nov-25 Dec-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Crude Oil -0.1 -2.9 0.0 5.4 0.0 -0.8 -0.1 1.7 Gasoline 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.7 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.6 Middle Distillates 0.1 -8.2 0.2 1.6 0.0 1.3 0.3 -5.2 Residual Fuel Oil 0.0 -0.8 0.0 3.8 0.0 -0.1 0.0 2.8 Other Products 0.0 -7.8 0.0 1.5 -0.3 -2.1 -0.3 -8.3 Total Products 0.2 -16.3 0.2 7.6 -0.4 -1.4 0.0 -10.1 Other Oils1 0.0 2.6 0.3 1.7 0.0 -0.1 0.3 4.1 Total Oil 0.0 -16.6 0.5 14.7 -0.4 -2.3 0.2 -4.2 1 Other Oils includes NGLs, feedstocks and other hydrocarbons. OECD commercial inventories in December were revised lower by 4.2 mb on more complete data submissions from member countries. Overall, lower products (-10.1 mb) were partly offset by higher crude and other oils, which include NGLs and feedstocks (+5.8 mb). OECD Americas posted a 16.6 mb downward revision, mainly due to adjustments to US crude (-2.2 mb), ‘other products’ Oil Market Report Stocks (-8.1 mb) and middle distillates (-7.7 mb). Asia Oceania was revised lower by 2.3 mb due to downgrades in Japan’s crude (-1.1 mb) and ‘other products’ inventories (-2.2 mb). By contrast, Europe was revised up by a sizeable 14.7 mb based on higher stocks in the Netherlands (+10.2 mb) and the United Kingdom (+1.1 mb), while Italy was adjusted down by 2 mb. IEA Member Countries Agree Historic Emergency Stock Release On 11 March, the 32 Member countries of the International Energy Agency unanimously agreed to make 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market to address disruptions in oil markets stemming from the war in the Middle East. The additional oil supply will be made available by a combination of emergency stock draws and other measures over a timeframe that is appropriate to the national circumstances of each Member country. IEA member countries held a substantial 1.2 billion barrels of government oil stocks as of end- January 2026. These inventories are held specifically for use in emergency situations and are owned either directly by governments or by specialised public agencies. They can be released to the market through a variety of mechanisms, including tenders, loan agreements or direct sales to refiners and oil suppliers. A further 600 mb of industry stocks are held under government obligation in many IEA countries. During a crisis, these stocks can be made available through a temporary lowering of stockholding obligations. As of end-January 2026, total OECD government stocks covered 27.4 days of forward demand. Government stocks in OECD Asia Oceania covered 53.4 days of forward demand, while in OECD Europe and OECD Americas they covered 34.2 days and 16.6 days, respectively. Share of OECD Government Stocks OECD Government Stocks Cover Days 70 60 50 Asia Americas Oceania 40 33% 31% 30 20 10 0 Europe 36% Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD Total For OECD countries as a whole, around 75% of government stocks consist of crude oil. Crude oil accounts for virtually all government stocks held in OECD Americas and 90% held in OECD Asia Oceania. However, in OECD Europe, oil products represent the majority (60%) of government stocks. The United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) accounts for around one-third of OECD government stocks. The SPR held around 415 mb of oil as of end-February 2026. The release of government stocks played a major role in stabilising oil markets during the turmoil that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In the March and April 2022 IEA Collective Actions, IEA members agreed to make around a total 182.7 mb of emergency stocks available, with 136 mb from government stocks, and a further 46.7 mb released by industry following the relaxation of national stockholding obligations in some member countries. Oil Market Report Stocks Implied balance Global observed inventories rose by 1.5 mb/d in January. On-land stocks were up by 1.1 mb/d as non-OECD crude inventories built by 1.7 mb/d, of which China accounted for 300 kb/d. OECD total inventories fell by 600 kb/d m-o-m while oil on water was up again, by 400 kb/d. The ‘unaccounted for balance’ was an unusually large 1.7 mb/d for January at the time of writing. Typically, the discrepancy between apparent and observed stocks will diminish as more complete data for supply, demand and inventories become available. IEA Global Oil Balance (implied stock change) (mb/d) 2023 2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 4Q25 2025 Jan-26 Feb-26 Global oil balance -0.15 -0.24 0.71 1.80 2.68 2.55 3.59 2.18 2.76 2.00 3.25 1.99 Observed stock changes OECD industry stocks -0.01 -0.06 -0.08 0.44 0.87 -1.28 0.36 0.0 -0.32 0.23 -0.6 0.28 OECD government stocks -0.02 0.11 -0.01 -0.04 -0.03 0.00 0.18 0.2 0.12 0.01 0.0 0.01 Non-OECD crude stocks* 0.05 0.10 -0.36 1.08 0.18 -0.48 1.66 0.5 0.56 0.37 1.7 1.05 of which, Chinese crude stocks 0.04 0.18 -0.33 0.93 0.20 -0.67 0.49 1.4 0.40 0.30 0.3 0.92 Selected non-OECD product stocks** 0.03 -0.03 0.14 -0.04 -0.01 0.12 0.03 -0.4 -0.08 0.00 0.0 -0.02 Oil on water -0.09 -0.23 0.76 -0.04 0.97 2.38 0.27 0.4 1.03 0.68 0.4 Total observed stock changes -0.04 -0.13 0.45 1.40 1.98 0.73 2.51 0.7 1.30 1.29 1.5 of which, Crude -0.17 -0.20 1.07 0.86 1.06 2.86 1.89 0.3 1.67 1.17 0.8 Unaccounted for balance -0.11 -0.11 0.26 0.40 0.71 1.82 1.08 1.5 1.46 0.71 1.7 *Observed non-OECD crude stocks are from Kayrros and include only above ground storage,adjusted NGLs from JODI , plus estimated data for South Africa’s Saldanha Bay from Kpler . **JODI data adjusted for monthly gaps in reporting, latest data for December 2025, plus Fujairah and Singapore inventories. Sources: IEA, EIA, PAJ , Kayrros , JODI, Kpler , FEDCom/S&P Global Platts and Enterprise Singapore . Recent OECD industry stocks changes OECD Americas OECD Americas industry stocks hit a seasonal high of 1 537 mb in January in five years, despite an 18 mb monthly reduction. Regional inventories covered 61.2 days of forward demand (+2.1 days y-o-y). Crude, NGLs and feedstocks built by 6.5 mb, led by the United States. US crude stocks rose by 3.1 mb m-o-m, though inventory levels were 4.5 mb lower than a year ago and at the bottom end of the historical range. OECD Americas Crude Oil Industry Stocks OECD Americas Motor Gasoline Industry Stocks mb mb 700 290 680 280 660 270 640 620 260 600 250 580 240 560 540 230 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 2025 2026 2025 2026 Product stocks fell by 24.6 mb, also led by the United States. Gasoline (+18.4 mb) was the only product posting a major increase thanks to builds in the United States (+17.3 mb) and Canada (+1.1 mb). Meanwhile, ‘other products’ including LPG dropped by 39 mb as severe winter weather Oil Market Report Stocks boosted heating fuel demand and impacted production. However, regional inventory remained at a seasonal high, covering 39.9 days of forward demand, 4.5 days above a year ago, thanks to a 38 mb build last year. By contrast, fuel oil remained at record lows for January despite a minor 0.5 mb increase. Middle distillates fell by 4.5 mb, with draws in the United States (-3.4 mb) and Canada (-1.1 mb). Preliminary US commercial inventories for February dipped by 6.8 mb, according to weekly data from the Energy Information Administration. Crude rose by a further 19.2 mb while products fell by 26 mb, due to lower ‘other products’ (-14 mb), middle distillates (-6.8 mb) and gasoline (-6.1 mb). Fuel oil was up by 1 mb. OECD Europe OECD Europe commercial inventories rose by 9 mb in January, or just half of their normal seasonal build due to relatively weak growth in products (+8.1 mb) and a marginal increase in crude, NGLs and feedstocks (+0.9 mb). At 941 mb, total stocks stood 5.1 mb above a year ago and covered 71.1 days of forward demand (+1 day y-o-y). A relatively modest draw in regional crude (-1.4 mb) was offset by a 2.3 mb increase in NGLs and feedstocks. Major crude builds were reported in Italy (+4 mb), Norway (+2.7 mb), Spain (+1.9 mb) and Germany (+1.5 mb), while there were draws in the United Kingdom (-3.7 mb), France (-2.9 mb) and the Netherlands (-2.2 mb). Products stocks rose 8.1 mb, led by a 7.2 mb build in gasoline. European gasoline stocks stood at their highest January level in five years. Middle distillates fell counter-seasonally, by 0.8 mb m-o-m, due to reductions of more than 1 mb in the UK, Germany and Italy, while France built by 1.4 mb. As a result, the stocks reached their lowest January level since 2005. Fuel oil stocks were up 4.7 mb y-o-y, due to a 1.2 mb monthly build. ‘Other products’ also increased, by 0.4 mb. For February, preliminary data indicate that crude stocks in Europe jumped by 14.6 mb, according to Kayrros. Sizeable additions in Spain (+6.3 mb), France (+3.9 mb), Portugal and the Netherlands (+2 mb each) were partly offset by reductions in Italy (-1.5 mb) and Poland (-1.4 mb). Hungarian stocks dropped by 1.4 mb with a halt of crude deliveries from Russia since the end of January due to attacks on the Druzhba pipeline. OECD Europe Crude Oil Industry Stocks OECD Europe Middle Distillates Industry Stocks mb mb 380 360 370 340 360 320 350 340 300 330 280 320 260 310 300 240 290 220 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 2025 2026 2025 2026 Oil Market Report Stocks OECD Asia Oceania Industry stocks in OECD Asia Oceania drew 10.1 mb in January, mainly due to Japan (-12.5 mb). They stood at 343 mb, covering 48.2 days of forward demand, same as a year ago. Regional crude, NGLs and feedstocks dropped by 5.7 mb but and stood 6.5 mb above a year ago. Japanese crude inventories slid by 8.9 mb while Korea added 3 mb, which was above the seasonal norm. Products inventories declined counter-seasonally by 4.4 mb. Middle distillates drew in both Japan (-2.4 mb) and Korea (-1.1 mb). A sharp contraction in fuel oil (-1.4 mb) was led by Korea. ‘Other products’ fell to their lowest seasonal level since 2017, with a monthly reduction of 0.7 mb led by Japan (-1.7 mb). Gasoline built by 1.1 mb following gains in both Japan (+0.9 mb) and Korea (+0.2 mb). Weekly data from the Petroleum Association of Japan indicated no significant changes in commercial stocks (-0.1 mb) for February. This is because a counter-seasonal build in crude, NGLs and feedstocks (+3.5 mb) was offset by draws in middle distillates (-3.8 mb). Gasoline rose only 0.2 mb. OECD Asia Oceania Crude Oil Industry Stocks OECD Asia Oceania Motor Gasoline Industry mb mb Stocks 160 31 150 30 140 29 28 130 27 120 26 110 25 100 24 90 23 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 2025 2026 2025 2026 Other stocks developments Oil on water rose 14 mb in January, according to tanker tracking data from Kpler. Despite a sizeable 32 mb reduction in crude, the first contraction in five months, products surged by 45 mb, led by LPG/ethane (+10 mb), fuel oil (+8 mb), diesel (+6 mb) and gasoline (+5 mb). Floating storage, including ships idling offshore for more than 12 days, decreased 11 mb due to a crude draw of 23 mb in the Asia Pacific region. Preliminary February data showed oil on water falling by 20 mb (of which -12 mb for crude and -8 mb for products), to 2 011mb. The decline – the first drawdown since August 2025 – was underpinned by a 25 mb reduction in oil in transit. On the other hand, floating storage rose 6 mb m-o-m to 157 mb, of which the Asia Pacific region accounted for 73 mb or 46%, followed by Middle East (11% or 17 mb). Oil Market Report Stocks Oil on Water Oil on Water by Category mb mb mb 2 100 500 1 400 2 000 400 1 300 1 900 300 1 200 1 800 200 1 100 1 700 100 1 000 1 600 0 900 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 2025 2026 Clean Products DPP Note: Oil on water includes floating storage and oil in transit. LPG Crude/Co (RHS) Source: Kpler. Source: Kpler. Sanctioned oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela accounted for 487 mb or 24% of total oil on water at end-February, albeit the volume dipped by 4 mb m-o-m after five consecutive months of builds. Currently, the three countries accounted for 69%, or 56 mb, of floating crude storage, which may see increased buying interest due to disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies. Oil on Water by Origin Floating Crude by Origin mb mb 2500 100 2000 80 1500 60 1000 40 500 20 0 0 Aug-25 Oct-25 Dec-25 Feb-26 Aug-25 Oct-25 Dec-25 Feb-26 Middle East Americas Others Middle East Americas Others Iran Russia Venezuela Iran Russia Venezuela Source: Kpler. Source: Kpler. Total oil products stocks in Fujairah bounced back by 3.3 mb in January to 22 mb, according to FEDCom and S&P Global Platts, with all fuels rising. By contrast, stocks fell by 1.3 mb in February. Two consecutive months of increases in light distillates (+1.3 mb in January and +1.6 mb in February) took stocks above a six-year high. Middle distillates rose 0.8 mb in January but decreased by 0.3 mb in February, to almost at the same point as a year ago, at 2.8 mb. For residues, a 1.2 mb build in January was more than offset by a 2.7 mb draw in February, pushing stocks to the lowest for the month since 2018. Oil products inventories in Singapore decreased by 2.8 mb in January, according to Enterprise Singapore, before partially recovering by 0.8 mb in February. Among products, light distillates rose by +1.6 mb in January and by +0.9 mb in February, reaching a record high. By contrast, middle distillates fell to 7.6 mb (-2.5 mb y-o-y), following a build of 0.5 mb in January and a reduction of 1.2 mb in February. Residues plunged by 5 mb in January then rebounded by 1.1 mb in February. Oil Market Report Stocks Fujairah Weekly Total Oil Stocks Singapore Weekly Total Stocks mb mb 26 60 24 55 22 20 50 18 16 45 14 40 12 10 35 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 2025 2026 2025 2026 Source: FEDCom/S&P Global Platts. Source: Enterprise Singapore. Following a build of 132 mb in 2025 and a surge of 52.5 mb in January, non-OECD crude stocks built by 29.3 mb to 2 070 mb at end-February, according to Kayrros. For January, China was the single largest contributor at +10.4 mb m-o-m, with OPEC nations increasing by 27.5 mb, largely due to Iran (+10.1 mb), Algeria (+7.2 mb) and the UAE (+4 mb). In Asia, India’s stocks jumped by 5.2 mb in January and by a further 2.8 mb in February. Meanwhile, stocks drew in a number of exporting countries, including Russia (-2.2 mb), Brazil (-1.9 mb), Oman (-1.7 mb) and Egypt (-1.4 mb). In February, a build in non-OECD countries was again led by China (+25.6 mb). OPEC inventories decreased by 6.3 mb, led by Iran (-6.1 mb) and the UAE (-3.8 mb), while Saudi Arabia built by 3.5 mb. Visible Russian crude stocks reached a historical high following a 3.5 mb build. Non-OECD Crude m-o-m Stock Change Non-OECD Crude m-o-m Stock Change mb January 2026 mb February 2026 2 130 2 130 3.5 6.9 - 1.8 - 2.4 - 3.8 - 6.1 2 080 2 080 25.6 3.9 3.5 18.9 - 1.4- 1.7- 1.9- 2.2 4.0 5.2 4.0 2 030 10.1 7.2 2 030 10.4 1 980 1 980 1 930 1 930 1 880 1 880 Month-end stocks Increase Decrease Month-end stocks Increase Decrease Source: Kayrros. Source: Kayrros. Ten non-OECD economies reporting data to the JODI-Oil World Database posted a 12 mb drawdown in product stocks in December 2025. Middle distillates and fuel oil fell by 7.8 mb and 3.5 mb, respectively, followed by ‘other products’ (-1.2 mb). Gasoline was up marginally (+0.5 mb). Higher product net-exports, according to Kpler, trimmed products stocks in Saudi Arabia (-6.9 mb), India (-4.6 mb), Chinese Taipei (-1.5 mb) and Thailand (-0.6 mb). For most countries, middle distillates were the main driver of stock drawdowns. But in Chinese Taipei, the -1.5 mb in total stocks was led by a draw of 1.4 mb in gasoline. Nigeria continued to build by 3.9 mb, mainly due to gasoline (+2.5 mb) and ‘other products’ (+1.4 mb). Oil Market Report Stocks Regional OECD End-of-Month Industry Stocks (in days of forward demand and million barrels of total oil) Days1 Million Barrels Days Americas mb Americas 75 1 650 70 1 600 65 1 550 60 1 500 55 1 450 50 1 400 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 2025 2026 2025 2026 Days Europe mb Europe 90 1 100 80 1 000 70 900 60 800 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 2025 2026 2025 2026 Days Asia Oceania mb Asia Oceania 55 400 380 50 360 340 45 320 40 300 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 2025 2026 2025 2026 Days OECD Total mb OECD Total 75 3 100 70 2 900 65 60 2 700 55 50 2 500 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 2025 2026 2025 2026 1 Days of forward demand are based on average OECD demand over the next three months. Oil Market Report Prices Prices Overview Global crude oil prices have gyrated wildly since the United States and Israel launched joint air strikes on Iran on 28 February. They gained $20/bbl in the first week, before swooping up then down by almost $35/bbl in one day, the largest price swing ever. Iran’s barrage of drones and missiles targeting oil and other vital infrastructure in neighbouring states and vessels in the Gulf broadened the conflict throughout the Middle East, blocking the Strait of Hormuz and severely disrupting global supplies. The massive volume of oil tanker traffic out of the Gulf has all but come to a standstill amid heightened security risks, the withdrawal of marine insurance and growing operational uncertainty. At the time of writing, North Sea Dated was trading at $92/bbl. The rally in crude markets, however, has been eclipsed by the sharp spike in prices for middle distillates, especially in Europe and Asia, $/bbl Benchmark Crude Prices where stocks are relatively low while Source: Argus Media Group 120 reliance on Middle East exports is high. Jet fuel prices in Singapore initially surged by 110 over 100% to more than $240/bbl following 100 Iran’s attacks on Middle Eastern refining 90 assets and as product exports flows 80 through the Strait stalled, pushing middle 70 distillate cracks to near-record levels. They 60 eased subsequently but remain robust. 50 Prices had drifted upwards throughout Sep 24 Jan 25 May 25 Sep 25 Jan 26 February, with North Sea Dated up by WTI Cushing N. Sea Dated around $4/bbl m-o-m to average $71/bbl. Dubai ICE Brent M1 Oil markets spent the month stuck in waiting mode, gradually pricing in a higher geopolitical risk premium as Middle Eastern tensions escalated against the backdrop of a massive Gulf military buildup by the United States and Iranian military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme, mediated by Oman, took place throughout February in Muscat and Geneva but failed to produce a breakthrough. Oil market fundamentals played second fiddle to geopolitics in February but tilted bearish. Black Sea crude flows returned after the CPC terminal and Tengiz oil field resumed operations, boosting Atlantic Basin crude balances and depressing time spreads. The North Sea Dated structure, having traded in steep backwardation all year, slipped into contango at month-end, with the front-week North Sea Dated contract-for-difference ending February in a $0.50/bbl carry. In parallel, WTI prompt spreads weakened to within a whisker of contango, weighed down by soaring transatlantic freight rates. After the start of hostilities, calendar spreads rallied back into steep backwardation as concerns peaked about Middle Eastern supply disruptions. Brent front-month time spreads reached almost $10/bbl but eased to $4/bbl at the time of writing. An additional source of uncertainty came from trade policy. The US Supreme Court, by a 6-3 majority, ruled that President Trump had no authority to impose his “Liberation Day” tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, as this power resides with Congress. The ruling left businesses and governments scrambling to determine its implications – and whether to seek refunds for $130 billion in duties collected so far. Oil Market Report Prices Overall risk sentiment remained broadly supportive in February but turned sharply bearish after the outbreak of the war as an acute risk-off mood gripped financial markets. US equity indices are down 3-4% year-to-date, lagging international benchmarks led by Japan’s stock markets. The Nikkei 225 index increased 10% in February, buoyed by Prime Minister Takaichi’s landslide victory in a snap parliamentary election that was seen as a strong mandate for her expansionary fiscal agenda. Global bond markets rallied throughout February, with the ten-year US Treasury yield falling below the 4% level as investors sought safe-haven assets amid the trade and geopolitical upheaval. Yields reverted sharply in early March as surging oil prices reignited inflation fears. Minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s January meeting carried a hawkish tone. Most voting members saw no urgency for further interest rate cuts, with some officials opining that the central bank may need to raise interest rates if inflation remains above target. Economic data were mixed. The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter – far short of analysts’ expectations and sharply down from 4.4% in the previous quarter. Conversely, higher-frequency readings were more positive. Employers added a larger-than-expected 130 000 jobs in January, the strongest in more than a year, while the unemployment rate declined by 0.1% to 4.3%. However, February payrolls were unexpectedly weak, with the US economy losing 92 000 jobs. US consumer prices rose by 2.4% y-o-y in January, decelerating from December’s 2.7%, while the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased to 91.2 in February, from an upwardly revised 89 in January. Crude Prices and Differentials ($/bbl) Month Week of: Last: Changes Feb 26 Dec Jan Feb *M onthly m-o-m y-o-y 2025 2026 2026 02 Mar 10 Mar ∆ ∆ ∆ Crude Futures (M1) NYMEX WTI 57.87 60.26 64.52 78.47 83.45 1.81 4.26 -6.69 ICE Brent 61.63 64.73 69.37 83.73 87.80 1.79 4.64 -5.48 Crude Marker Grades North Sea Dated 62.64 66.73 71.09 85.15 87.69 -1.75 4.36 -4.02 WTI (Cushing) 57.94 60.44 64.50 78.47 83.45 1.81 4.06 -6.74 Dubai (London close) 61.93 62.82 68.69 86.82 105.18 3.70 5.87 -8.84 Differential to North Sea Dated WTI (Cushing) -4.70 -6.29 -6.59 -6.68 -4.24 3.56 -0.30 -2.73 Dubai (London close) -0.71 -3.91 -2.40 1.66 17.49 5.45 1.51 -4.83 Differential to ICE Brent North Sea Dated 1.02 2.00 1.72 1.43 -0.11 -3.54 -0.28 1.47 NYMEX WTI -3.76 -4.47 -4.85 -5.26 -4.35 0.02 -0.38 -1.20 Sources: Argus Media Group , ICE, NYMEX (NYMEX WTI = NYMEX Light Sweet Crude). *Monthly refers to the difference in price between the current and previous end of month. Futures markets ICE Brent futures were trading at $90/bbl at the time of writing, with February’s $4.64/bbl m-o-m rise followed by a volatile surge ending $20/bbl higher by 10 March in the wake of near complete interruption of Middle East Gulf export flows. Reflecting oil’s much-improved technical price picture, Brent has traded comfortably above its 50-,100- and 200-day moving averages since mid-January. Futures moved by a daily average of $1.16/bbl in February, climbing to $4/bbl in the first week of March. Curve structure diverged from flat price strength in February as Atlantic Basin crude balances lengthened due to the return of Kazakh export flows and the onset of refinery maintenance in Europe. Oil Market Report Prices The prompt Brent April-May spread briefly flipped into contango while WTI March-April expired flat. The front end of the curve subsequently soared back into strong $/bbl Forward Price Curves Sources: ICE, NYMEX backwardation as the Gulf conflict and 100 blockage of Hormuz revived scarcity concerns. The M1-12 calendar 90 spreads for Brent stood at $16/bbl ICE Brent backwardation at the time of writing. 80 February’s weakness in prompt crude 70 prices buttressed product margins, with the ICE gasoil versus Brent crack 60 NYMEX WTI spread up by $2/bbl m-o-m to $25/bbl. The outbreak of the war then sent the 50 M1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 spread soaring to $65/bbl due to 28 Feb 25 30 Jan 26 10 Mar 26 worries about lower diesel exports 28 Feb 25 30 Jan 26 10 Mar 26 from the Middle East and in Asia due to feedstock concerns. Fund exchange positioning continued its recovery from record bearishness at the start of the year, with investors reluctant to go short in the face of a potential supply shock. The long-to-short crude futures ratio held by money managers rose by around a point to 3.2 in February, in line with its long-term average. The equivalent ratio for products also climbed by a point to 4.2, with holdings allocated evenly between distillates and gasoline. Total open interest in the five main ICE and NYMEX futures decreased by 8% m-o-m to 6 510 mb. Money Managers' Long/Short Ratio $/bbl ICE Brent M1 and in Crude Futures vs. ICE Brent Price $/bbl 50/100/200-day moving averages 8 100 100 Ratio 90 90 6 3-year average ICE Brent (RHS) 80 80 4 70 70 2 60 60 Source: ICE ICE Brent 50-Day MA Sources: CFTC, ICE 100-Day MA 200-Day MA 0 50 50 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 May 24 Oct 24 Mar 25 Aug 25 Jan 26 Oil Market Report Prices Prompt Month Oil Futures Prices (monthly and weekly averages, $/bbl) Feb 2026 Week Com m encing: Last: Dec Jan Feb *Monthly m-o-m y-o-y 2025 2026 2026 ∆ ∆ ∆ 09 Feb 16 Feb 23 Feb 02 Mar 10 Mar NYMEX Light Sw eet Crude Oil (WTI) 1st contract 57.87 60.26 64.52 1.81 4.26 -6.69 63.74 65.09 65.92 78.47 83.45 Light Sw eet Crude Oil (WTI) 12th contract 57.50 58.91 61.44 1.12 2.53 -5.69 61.19 61.67 62.44 64.77 67.35 RBOB 73.92 75.90 82.44 6.51 6.54 -4.15 81.90 82.81 84.52 107.19 110.89 ULSD 92.99 97.73 105.03 -2.72 7.30 2.93 101.11 106.15 111.91 139.59 140.56 ULSD ($/mmbtu) 16.75 17.61 18.92 -0.49 1.32 0.53 18.21 19.12 20.16 25.15 25.32 NYMEX Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) 4.39 4.27 3.13 -1.50 -1.14 -0.61 3.17 3.02 2.91 3.02 3.02 ICE Brent 1st contract 61.63 64.73 69.37 1.79 4.64 -5.48 68.50 69.97 71.27 83.73 87.80 Brent 12th; contract 61.02 62.62 65.47 1.94 2.86 -5.22 65.05 65.72 66.81 69.34 72.05 Gasoil 85.96 88.25 94.68 -1.38 6.43 -0.80 91.95 94.33 99.74 138.64 140.05 Prom pt Month Differentials NYMEX WTI - ICE Brent -3.76 -4.47 -4.85 0.02 -0.38 -1.20 -4.77 -4.88 -5.35 -5.26 -4.35 NYMEX WTI 1st vs. 12th 0.36 1.35 3.08 0.69 1.73 -0.99 2.55 3.42 3.47 13.70 16.10 ICE Brent 1st - 12th 0.61 2.11 3.89 -0.15 1.78 -0.27 3.45 4.25 4.45 14.39 15.75 NYMEX ULSD - WTI 35.12 37.47 40.51 -4.53 3.04 9.62 37.37 41.07 45.99 61.12 57.11 NYMEX RBOB - WTI 16.05 15.64 17.91 4.70 2.27 2.54 18.17 17.72 18.60 28.72 27.44 NYMEX 3-2-1 Crack (RBOB) 22.41 22.92 25.45 1.63 2.53 4.90 24.57 25.50 27.73 39.52 37.33 NYMEX ULSD - Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) 12.36 13.34 15.79 1.01 2.45 1.14 15.04 16.10 17.25 22.12 22.30 ICE Gasoil - ICE Brent 24.33 23.52 25.31 -3.17 1.79 4.68 23.44 24.36 28.48 54.92 52.25 Sources: ICE, NYMEX. *Monthly refers to the difference in price between the current and previous end of month. Spot crude oil prices Physical crude benchmarks surged in early March, tracking futures as Middle East exports saw flows severely curtailed. The abrupt tightening of physical supply comes after the market showed signs of weakness in late February, slipping into a slight prompt contango despite mounting geopolitical risks and sporadic disruptions. North Sea Dated rose by $4.36/bbl m-o-m to $71.09/bbl on average in February, but its premium to futures fell to just $0.20/bbl by end-month. WTI Cushing gained $4.06/bbl m-o-m to $64.50/bbl. Both benchmarks are now trading close to $90/bbl and North Sea Dated rebounded to a $1.70/bbl premium to futures. Dubai outperformed, increasing $6.32/bbl m-o-m in February to $68.40/bbl before jumping in early March to over $100/bbl. Significantly, its $2.60/bbl discount to North Sea Dated last month flipped to a $1.70/bbl premium in March as regional supply constraints intensified. $/bbl Daily Benchmark Crude Prices Crude Prices Prompt Month Differentials $/bbl 120 30 110 25 20 100 15 90 10 80 5 70 0 -5 60 Aug 25 Oct 25 Dec 25 Feb 26 27-Jan 26 10-Feb 26 24-Feb 26 10-Mar 26 North Sea Dated to ICE Brent WTI Cushing North Sea Dated WTI M1-M3 Dubai ICE Brent M1 North Sea Dated M1-M3 Source: Argus Media Group. Dubai M1-M3 Source: Argus Media Group. The North Sea Dated-ICE Brent spread weakened steadily through February before reversing sharply in early March amid tighter prompt supply. The differential narrowed to $1.72/bbl, down $0.28/bbl m‑o‑m, after an early‑month period of steep backwardation that saw the differential peak Oil Market Report Prices at $3.63/bbl mid‑month. Firm freight rates, reduced CPC volumes and active stockpiling by Chinese and Middle Eastern refiners initially squeezed availability. As CPC flows resumed and European refineries entered seasonal maintenance, the spread briefly moved into negative territory by month‑end. Supply tensions brusquely reversed the trend in early March, pushing North Sea Dated $3/bbl above ICE Brent futures. Dubai’s prompt structure widened sharply in early March, with the M1-M3 spread jumping from an average of $0.90/bbl in February to above $18/bbl. The move also pushed the Brent-Dubai EFS above $9/bbl in early March, after remaining near $1.70/bbl in February, reflecting the surge in Dubai prices relative to Atlantic Basin benchmarks. The shift reflects the sudden need in March to open the arbitrage for more crude from the Atlantic Basin to Asia. In February, Dubai time spreads had already moved into backwardation, after trading in contango in January, reflecting stronger regional demand and a rising geopolitical risk premium. Indian refiners increased purchases of medium-sour grades, including Upper Zakum, Oman and Murban, as they continued to backfill Russian barrels. Increased Saudi crude allocations to Asia reflected an increased regional call for crude, widening prompt premiums through the month. North Sea Price Differentials African Price Differentials $/bbl to North Sea Dated $/bbl to North Sea Dated 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 Aug 25 Oct 25 Dec 25 Feb 26 Aug 25 Oct 25 Dec 25 Feb 26 Oseberg Forties Cabinda Bonny Lt Ekofisk Johan Sverdrup Girassol Forcados WTI cif Rotterdam Source: Argus Media Group. Source: Argus Media Group. The latest crisis has sharply lifted medium sour crude differentials in the North Sea as buyers turned to Atlantic Basin barrels. Johan Sverdrup, which had fallen by $1.62/bbl m-o-m in February to a $2.42/bbl discount, reversed course dramatically. The spread moved from roughly a -$3.25/bbl discount at the end of February to a $3.70/bbl premium within days as refiners sought medium-sour alternatives to Middle Eastern crude. WTI CIF Rotterdam also strengthened, with its premium rising from $1.74/bbl to above $3/bbl as freight rates soared and European buyers increased purchases. By contrast, other sweet North Sea grades showed no immediate response after softening against Dated in February amid improved availability and weaker seasonal refinery demand. Forties eased by $0.05/bbl m-o-m to $1.65/bbl, Oseberg slipped by $0.11/bbl to $2.71/bbl, and Ekofisk remained broadly flat at $2.24/bbl. In West Africa, crude differentials versus North Sea Dated have remained broadly unchanged since the onset of the conflict. Growing competition from light sweet barrels and swelling freight costs weighed on West African crude markets in February, as weaker Asian demand and improved supply elsewhere limited buying interest. Nigerian grades came under pressure, with Forcados falling by $1.16/bbl m-o-m to $1.31/bbl, Qua Iboe declining by $0.44/bbl to $0.66/bbl, and Bonny Light dropping by $0.88/bbl to $0.61/bbl. Brass River edged up by $0.21/bbl to $0.14/bbl. Angolan grades also softened as elevated long-haul freight and subdued Chinese demand slowed buying interest. The discount for Girassol widened by $0.63/bbl to -$0.87/bbl and Cabinda by $0.27/bbl to -$1.45/bbl. Oil Market Report Prices Competition from US WTI and Middle Eastern barrels further pressured West African grades, while refinery maintenance in Europe limited incremental demand, leaving some cargoes slower to clear. Mediterranean Price Differentials Russian Price Differentials $/bbl to North Sea Dated $/bbl to North Sea Dated 6 0 4 -5 2 -10 0 -2 -15 -4 -20 -6 -25 -8 -30 -10 -12 -35 Aug 25 Oct 25 Dec 25 Feb 26 Aug 25 Oct 25 Dec 25 Feb 26 Urals fob Primorsk Urals fob Novorossiysk BTC CPC Saharan Es Sider ESPO vs Dubai M1 Source: Argus Media Group. Source: Argus Media Group. The return of CPC Blend exports pressured Mediterranean crude spreads in February, pushing regional light sweet differentials lower. CPC Blend fell sharply, by $2.66/bbl m-o-m to a discount of -$8.91/bbl, trading as low as -$10/bbl mid-month. Values remained under pressure into early March amid loading uncertainty and a backlog of cargoes following earlier weather disruptions. Competing light sweet grades also softened. BTC Blend declined by $2.17/bbl to $1.45/bbl, Algeria’s Saharan Blend fell by $0.48/bbl m-o-m to $1.05/bbl, and Libya’s Es Sider was down by $1.20/bbl to a discount of $0.21/bbl. The recovery of CPC flows, seasonal refinery maintenance and ample alternative supply kept a lid on differentials. Since early March, values have rebounded with tightening crude markets. Sanctions continued to pressure Russian crude differentials in February. Urals FOB Primorsk fell by $1.61/bbl m-o-m to a discount to North Sea Dated of $28.28/bbl, while Urals Novorossiysk declined by $1.21/bbl to $28.26/bbl below the benchmark. In March, differentials moved sideways as a partial easing of sanction‑related constraints enabled India to resume Russian purchases. The ESPO-Dubai discount widened by $0.78/bbl to $14.31/bbl in February as Chinese demand remained steady, India took less Russian crude and competition from Middle Eastern and Latin American barrels increased. In early March, the ESPO-Dubai spread plunged to multi-year lows near -$27/bbl, largely reflecting the sharp rally in Dubai prices. Dubai-linked crude differentials surged in $/bbl Middle Eastern Price Differentials to Dubai early March as the worsening conflict in 25 the Middle East drove a sharp risk 20 premium for sour grades. Both Abu 15 Dhabi’s Murban and Oman versus Dubai jumped to over $15/bbl, a record premium 10 to Dubai, as buyers rushed to secure 5 barrels outside the Strait of Hormuz. Both 0 grades can load outside the chokepoint, making them particularly attractive as -5 Aug 25 Oct 25 Dec 25 Feb 26 tanker traffic through the Strait was Al Shaheen Murban stymied. By contrast, Upper Zakum and Upper Zakum Oman Qatar’s Al-Shaheen, which load inside the Source: Argus Media Group. Gulf, strengthened to a lesser extent as shipping access remained constrained. In February, Oman rose by $0.60/bbl m-o-m to $0.39/bbl, Oil Market Report Prices while Murban gained $0.08/bbl to $1.69/bbl, as Indian refiners raised purchases of regional medium sour grades. Upper Zakum increased by $0.90/bbl m-o-m to $0.50/bbl, while Al Shaheen edged up $0.13/bbl m-o-m to $0.10/bbl. $/bbl Sweet-Sour Crude Price Differentials Americas Price Differentials to ICE Brent $/bbl to WTI Houston 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 Aug 25 Oct 25 Dec 25 Feb 26 Aug 25 Oct 25 Dec 25 Feb 26 WTI Cushing Mars Maya USGC WCS USGC Liza Escalante WCS Hardisty Castilla High-TAN-Vancouver Source: Argus Media Group. Source: Argus Media Group. US Gulf Coast light sweet differentials were mixed in February amid rising regional supply and ongoing refinery maintenance. WTI Midland fell by $0.25/bbl m-o-m to $0.58/bbl, softening toward month-end, while WTI Houston remained broadly flat at $1.10/bbl. The gap between Midland and Houston widened as maintenance on the Wink-to-Webster pipeline system restricted flows from the Permian, creating localised bottlenecks. At the same time, softer European refinery demand and elevated freight costs weighed on export interest, boosting US crude inventories and widening the WTI Houston to North Sea Dated M2 arbitrage to $3.82/bbl. Spot Crude Oil Prices and Differentials (monthly and weekly averages, $/bbl) Feb 2026 Week Com m encing: Last: Dec Jan Feb *Monthly m-o-m y-o-y 2025 2026 2026 ∆ ∆ ∆ 09 Feb 16 Feb 23 Feb 02 Mar 10 Mar Crudes North Sea Dated 62.64 66.73 71.09 -1.75 4.36 -4.02 71.62 71.33 71.42 85.15 87.69 North Sea Mth 1 62.37 65.76 70.13 1.00 4.37 -5.52 69.67 70.06 72.07 86.84 90.68 North Sea Mth 2 61.75 64.70 69.42 2.21 4.72 -5.58 68.75 69.66 71.91 83.62 88.92 WTI (Cushing) Mth 1 57.94 60.44 64.50 1.81 4.06 -6.74 63.74 65.09 65.84 78.47 83.45 WTI (Cushing) Mth 2 57.74 60.24 64.37 2.15 4.13 -6.62 63.57 65.05 65.87 76.78 82.10 WTI (Houston) Mth 1 58.66 61.54 65.60 1.51 4.06 -7.14 64.78 66.05 67.05 80.19 84.88 Urals FOB Primorsk 37.59 40.06 42.81 -4.60 2.75 -17.07 44.18 42.61 41.59 55.53 58.29 Dubai Mth 1 (Singapore close) 61.99 62.07 68.40 4.40 6.32 -9.38 67.77 69.36 70.44 86.16 107.33 Differentials to Futures North Sea Dated vs. ICE Brent 1.02 2.00 1.72 -3.54 -0.28 1.47 3.12 1.37 0.16 1.43 -0.11 WTI (Cushing) Mth1 vs. NYMEX 0.08 0.18 -0.02 0.00 -0.20 -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.00 Differentials to Physical Markers WTI (Houston) vs. North Sea Mth 2 -3.09 -3.16 -3.82 -0.70 -0.66 -1.57 -3.98 -3.61 -4.86 -3.44 -4.05 WTI (Houston) vs.WTI (Cushing) 0.72 1.11 1.10 -0.30 -0.01 -0.40 1.04 0.96 1.21 1.71 1.43 WTI (Houston) vs Dubai Mth 2 -3.33 -0.53 -2.80 -2.89 -2.27 2.23 -3.00 -3.31 -3.40 -5.97 -22.46 North Sea Dated vs Dubai (London close) 0.38 3.69 1.73 3.40 -1.95 3.85 1.90 0.70 1.63 0.68 -16.65 Urals FOB Prim vs. North Sea Dated -25.06 -26.67 -28.28 -2.85 -1.61 -13.06 -27.44 -28.72 -29.83 -29.62 -29.40 Prom pt Month Differentials Forw ard North Sea Mth1-Mth3 0.96 1.73 1.25 -1.49 -0.49 0.17 1.60 0.93 0.45 6.93 5.14 Forw ard WTI Cushing Mth1-Mth3 0.36 0.42 0.13 -0.34 -0.29 -0.13 0.17 0.04 -0.03 1.69 1.35 Forw ard Dubai Mth1-Mth3 0.56 -0.17 0.91 1.08 1.08 -2.27 0.86 1.11 1.01 10.99 25.65 Sources: Argus Media Group. All rights reserved , ICE, NYMEX. *Monthly refers to the difference in price between the current and previous end of month. In February, heavy sour crude markets remained under pressure as higher chartering rates limited offshore flows. Western Canadian Select (WCS) at Hardisty fell by $0.35/bbl m-o-m to a discount of $15.32/bbl, while WCS at Houston edged to $8.89/bbl below the benchmark. High-TAN Vancouver Oil Market Report Prices weakened by $1.23/bbl m-o-m to a discount of $12.29/bbl as softer Asian demand and high freight rates curtailed exports. Mexican Maya fell by $1.77/bbl m-o-m to a discount of $7.52/bbl amid ample regional supply following outages at the Dos Bocas refinery. Mars was the exception, strengthening by $1.07/bbl m-o-m to a discount of $1.31/bbl as Korean refiners increased purchases. Competition from Venezuelan barrels, along with elevated freight, pressured Latin American crude markets in February, leaving regional differentials weaker overall. Guyana’s Liza fell by $1.35/bbl m-o-m to a discount of $0.72/bbl, while Colombia’s Castilla Blend declined by $1.64/bbl to $10.84/bbl below Brent and Ecuador’s Oriente dropped by $1.42/bbl to a discount of $11.31/bbl. Argentina’s Escalante edged up by $0.20/bbl but remained discounted at $3.68/bbl. Brazilian grades diverged, with Tupi ex-Shandong rising by $0.92/bbl to $2.01/bbl amid intermittent Chinese buying as supply recovered after FPSO maintenance, while Búzios delivered to Rotterdam declined by $0.86/bbl to $2.19/bbl as higher shipping costs deterred European refiners. Freight Freight rates surged in early March as missile and drone strikes effectively halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (see: The Strait of Hormuz Chokepoints). Roughly 98% of the crude exported through the chokepoint is transported on VLCCs, primarily along the Middle East Gulf to Asia route. Tanker movements slowed sharply and vessels accumulated on both sides of the waterway. VLCC rates from the Middle East Gulf to Asia, which had already risen by $2.54/bbl m-o-m to $4.13/bbl in February (141% y-o-y), spiked above $14/bbl in early March, nearly 600% higher than year-ago levels. The jump in freight had a knock-on effect across other vessel classes. Tanker markets had already tightened through February, Suezmax rates increased by roughly $2/bbl on key Atlantic Basin routes, including West Africa-UK Continent and US Gulf Coast-Europe, before surging to above $7/bbl in early March. In February, North Sea Aframax rates rose by $0.79/bbl m-o-m to $1.79/bbl, remaining comparatively less affected by the surge in VLCC freight. Rates were supported by strong demand for ship-to-ship transfers in US Gulf ports, along with improved Caribbean-US Gulf economics following eased Venezuelan restrictions. $/bbl Monthly Crude Tanker Rates $/bbl Monthly Product Tanker Rates 16 11 9 12 7 8 5 4 3 0 1 Mar 23 Sep 23 Mar 24 Sep 24 Mar 25 Sep 25 Mar 26 Mar 23 Sep 23 Mar 24 Sep 24 Mar 25 Sep 25 Mar 26 VLCC MEG to Asia 130kt WAF to UKC LR MEG to Japan MR Singapore to Japan 130kt USGC to Europe North Sea Aframax MR Caribbean to USGC MR UK to USEC Source: Argus Media Group. Source: Argus Media Group. Product tanker markets were also disrupted, with Long Range (LR) Middle East-Japan rates climbing above $9/bbl in early March. Vessel supply had been tightening already in February despite seasonal slowdowns during Ramadan and the Chinese New Year. LR Middle East-Japan rates rose by $0.92/bbl m-o-m to $4.92/bbl, supported by steady product export demand and limited vessel availability. Medium Range (MR) Singapore-Japan increased by $0.42/bbl to $2.51/bbl, while the Caribbean-US Atlantic route gained $0.56/bbl to $2.71/bbl. By contrast, MR UK-US Atlantic softened Oil Market Report Prices slightly, falling by $0.19/bbl to $2.67/bbl, reflecting more balanced vessel availability in the Atlantic Basin. Freight Costs (monthly and weekly averages, $/bbl) Feb-26 Week Com m encing Feb 25 Dec 25 Jan 25 Feb 26 m-o-m Δ y-o-y Δ 02-Feb 09-Feb 16-Feb 23-Feb 02-Mar 09-Mar Crude Tankers VLCC MEG-Asia 1.99 3.47 1.84 4.79 2.94 2.80 4.15 4.03 4.70 6.28 13.95 14.31 130Kt WAF - UKC 2.29 3.46 1.90 4.06 2.16 1.77 3.84 3.85 3.94 4.62 7.60 7.16 130Kt USGC to EUR 2.32 3.55 1.92 4.16 2.23 1.83 3.89 4.16 3.92 4.61 7.42 8.28 Baltic Aframax 1.15 1.67 1.18 2.06 0.88 0.91 2.11 2.03 2.03 2.06 2.33 2.59 North Sea Aframax 0.98 1.42 1.00 1.79 0.79 0.81 1.84 1.76 1.76 1.81 2.03 2.27 Product Tankers LR MEG - Japan 3.33 4.47 3.99 4.92 0.92 1.59 5.40 4.73 4.51 4.88 9.29 7.73 MR Sing - JPN 2.42 2.88 2.09 2.51 0.42 0.09 2.64 2.51 2.41 2.44 2.88 2.98 MR Carib - US Atlantic 1.80 2.49 2.15 2.71 0.56 0.91 2.86 2.68 2.54 2.72 3.95 4.25 MR UK-US Atlantic 3.16 2.58 2.87 2.67 -0.19 -0.48 2.82 2.94 2.47 2.45 4.12 4.68 Source:Argus Media Group. All rights reserved. The Strait of Hormuz Chokepoints Global tanker freight rates surged after the United States and Israel launched a military attack on Iran on 28 February that severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Only a handful of ships continue to transit the narrow sea passage Monthly Freight Rates : Dirty separating the Arabian Peninsula and Iran, VLCC MEG-Asia compared with an average of more than 100 $/bbl 16 vessels per day prior to the conflict. Currently, there are some 350 oil-carrying ships, both 12 ballast and loaded, reported idle on either side in 8 the Strait waiting to transit. The chokepoint normally handles roughly 20 mb/d of crude and 4 refined products, equivalent to about one-third of global seaborne oil trade, making any disruption 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan immediately visible across tanker markets. Range 2021-2025 Avg 2021-2025 2023 2025 Maritime traffic through the Strait collapsed within Mar 26 mtd 2026 days as insurance was repriced or cancelled, and Source: Argus Media Group shipowners avoided the region after several vessels were struck by projectiles near Oman, Bahrain and the UAE. Additional war risk premiums surged from around 0.15-0.2% of vessel value to roughly 1%, sharply increasing voyage costs. Freight markets reacted immediately, with rates for the benchmark VLCC Middle East Gulf-China route surging to more than $14/bbl, $12/bbl above the five-year average and equivalent to more than $490 000 per day, a record high. In parallel, Suezmax and Aframax rates strengthened as available tanker supply tightened. The US government has indicated it would provide insurance and military protection for maritime trade in the region, although details are still evolving. Roughly 8% of global VLCC tonnage is currently stranded within the Middle East Gulf, while shipowners outside the region remain reluctant to enter. Saudi Aramco has opened the option to lift volumes from the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea, with preliminary export data indicating flows from the port have begun to pick up. At the same time, disruptions to exports from the Mideast Gulf are forcing refiners to diversify supply sources, with Asian buyers increasingly turning to the United Oil Market Report Prices States, West Africa and Latin America. These longer trade routes significantly increase tonne-mile demand, requiring more vessels and time, which amplifies upward pressure on freight rates. Number of Oil Vessels in the Mideast Gulf 300 200 100 0 09-Feb 14-Feb 19-Feb 24-Feb 01-Mar 06-Mar 11-Mar VLCC+ (L) MR (L) Aframax (L) Suezmax/Panamax (L) Other (L) VLCC+ (B) MR (B) Aframax (B) Suezmax/Panamax (B) Other (B) Note: (L) refers to Loaded, (B ) refers to Ballast. Source: Kpler. Structural factors had already been tightening tanker markets prior to the conflict. VLCC ownership has become increasingly concentrated, with a major Asian shipowner reportedly now controlling a significant share of the compliant VLCC fleet, strengthening the owners’ pricing power. Rising crude and fuel oil prices have also pushed up bunker fuel costs, while current disruptions at key bunkering hubs such as Fujairah are tightening marine fuel supply. In the near term, the combination of security risks, exorbitant insurance coverage, restricted vessel supply and longer trade routes are expected to keep freight markets highly volatile and tanker earnings near record highs. Oil Market Report Tables Tables Table 1 WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND Table 1: World Oil Supply and Demand (million barrels per day) 2022 2023 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 2026 OECD DEMAND Americas 24.8 25.1 24.6 25.3 25.6 25.5 25.2 25.0 25.2 25.9 25.5 25.4 25.1 25.3 25.9 25.5 25.5 Europe 13.6 13.4 12.8 13.6 14.0 13.5 13.5 12.9 13.7 13.7 13.4 13.4 12.9 13.6 13.7 13.4 13.4 Asia Oceania 7.3 7.2 7.5 7.0 6.9 7.4 7.2 7.3 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.0 7.4 6.7 6.8 7.1 7.0 Total OECD 45.7 45.7 44.9 45.8 46.5 46.4 45.9 45.3 45.7 46.5 46.1 45.9 45.4 45.5 46.4 46.1 45.8 NON-OECD DEMAND Eurasia 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.0 4.8 Europe 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 China 15.2 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.8 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.4 17.0 17.3 16.9 16.8 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.0 Other Asia 14.1 14.4 14.8 14.9 14.4 15.2 14.8 15.1 15.1 14.7 15.5 15.1 15.4 15.3 15.0 15.8 15.4 Latin America 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.8 6.7 Middle East 9.1 9.2 8.9 9.2 9.7 9.1 9.2 8.8 9.3 9.7 9.1 9.2 8.7 9.3 9.7 9.1 9.2 Africa 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.9 Total Non-OECD 54.7 56.7 56.6 57.2 57.8 58.0 57.4 57.4 57.7 58.6 59.1 58.2 58.0 58.5 59.2 60.0 58.9 Total Demand1 100.4 102.4 101.5 103.1 104.2 104.4 103.3 102.7 103.4 105.2 105.2 104.1 103.4 104.0 105.7 106.1 104.8 OECD SUPPLY Americas 25.8 27.5 27.7 28.4 28.5 29.2 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.9 30.1 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.7 Europe 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 Asia Oceania 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Total OECD2 29.5 31.2 31.5 32.0 32.1 32.8 32.1 32.3 32.5 33.6 33.9 33.1 33.3 33.7 33.7 33.8 33.6 NON-OECD SUPPLY Eurasia 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.5 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.5 13.6 13.1 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.5 Europe 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 China 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 Other Asia 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 Latin America 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.0 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.6 Middle East 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.2 2.9 Africa 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Total Non-OECD2 32.2 32.7 32.9 32.5 32.3 32.3 32.5 32.9 33.1 33.4 33.5 33.2 32.7 33.5 34.0 34.1 33.6 Processing Gains3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Global Biofuels 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.3 2.9 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.5 Total Non-OPEC 66.8 69.3 69.5 70.4 70.5 70.8 70.3 70.4 71.4 73.2 73.3 72.1 71.5 73.3 74.0 73.9 73.2 OPEC Crude 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.5 28.2 29.0 29.0 28.4 NGLs 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.6 4 Total OPEC 33.1 32.9 32.8 32.8 32.7 32.8 32.8 33.0 33.8 34.6 34.7 34.0 Total Supply 99.9 102.2 102.3 103.1 103.3 103.6 103.1 103.4 105.2 107.9 107.9 106.1 STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS Reported OECD Industry 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.8 -0.4 -0.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.9 -0.3 0.2 Government -0.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Total -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.8 -0.2 0.2 Floating Storage/Oil in Transit 0.3 -0.1 0.9 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.2 0.8 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 Miscellaneous to balance5 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.9 1.9 1.1 Total Stock Ch. & Misc -0.5 -0.2 0.7 0.1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.2 0.7 1.8 2.7 2.8 2.0 Memo items: Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.6 28.1 27.6 26.5 27.2 28.1 28.1 27.5 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 25.2 25.8 26.3 26.0 1 Measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international marine bunkers, refinery fuel, crude for direct burning, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Includes biofuels. 2 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. 3 Net volumetric gains and losses in the refining process and marine transportation losses. 4 OPEC includes current members throughout the time series. 5 Includes changes in non-reported stocks in OECD and non-OECD. 6 Total demand minus total non-OPEC supply minus OPEC NGLs. For the purpose of this and the following tables: - OECD comprises of Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, New Zealand, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Republic of Türkiye, UK, US. - OPEC is comprised of Algeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Venezuela. Neutral Zone production is included in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait production with their respective shares. - OPEC+ comprises of OPEC members throughout time series plus Sudan, South Sudan, Russia, Oman, Mexico, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Brunei, Bahrain, Azerbaijan. Oil Market Report Tables Table WORLD 1a: World Oil Supply andTable 1a Demand: Changes from Last Month’s OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND: CHANGES FROM LAST MONTH'S TABLE 1 Table 1 (million barrels per day) 2022 2023 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 2026 OECD DEMAND Americas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 Asia Oceania 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 Total OECD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 NON-OECD DEMAND Eurasia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 China 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 Other Asia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Latin America 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Middle East 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Non-OECD 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 Total Demand 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 OECD SUPPLY Americas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Asia Oceania 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total OECD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 NON-OECD SUPPLY Eurasia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 China 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Asia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Latin America 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Middle East 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Non-OECD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.2 Processing Gains 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Global Biofuels 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Non-OPEC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 OPEC Crude 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NGLs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 Total OPEC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total Supply 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS Reported OECD Industry 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Government 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Floating Storage/Oil in Transit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Miscellaneous to balance -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 Total Stock Ch. & Misc -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 Memo items: Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch. 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 Note: When submitting monthly oil statistics, OECD member countries may update data for prior periods. Similar updates to non-OECD data can also occur. Oil Market Report Tables Table 1b: World Oil Supply andTable Demand 1b (Including OPEC+ based on WORLD OIL PRODUCTION (OPEC+ crude production based on current agreement ¹) current agreement1) (million barrels per day) 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 2026 Total Demand 101.5 103.1 104.2 104.4 103.3 102.7 103.4 105.2 105.2 104.1 103.4 104.0 105.7 106.1 104.8 OECD SUPPLY Americas2 25.7 26.4 26.5 27.3 26.5 26.8 27.0 28.0 28.3 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.0 Europe 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 Asia Oceania 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Total OECD (non-OPEC+) 29.4 30.0 30.1 30.9 30.1 30.5 30.7 31.8 32.1 31.3 31.5 31.9 32.0 32.1 31.9 NON-OECD SUPPLY Eurasia3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Europe 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 China 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 Other Asia4 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Latin America 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.0 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.6 Middle East5 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.7 Africa6 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 Total Non-OECD (non-OPEC+) 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.7 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.0 17.9 18.1 18.6 18.7 18.3 Processing Gains 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Global Biofuels 2.8 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.3 2.9 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.5 Total Non-OPEC+ 52.0 53.2 53.6 54.0 53.2 53.4 54.3 56.0 56.3 55.0 54.9 56.1 56.9 56.8 56.2 OPEC+ CRUDE Algeria 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Azerbaijan 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Bahrain 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Brunei 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Congo 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Equatorial Guinea 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gabon 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Iran 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 Iraq 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.4 3.4 3.3 4.5 4.5 3.9 Kazakhstan 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 Kuwait 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.5 Libya 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Malaysia 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Mexico 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 Nigeria 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Oman 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Russia 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.1 9.3 9.2 9.3 9.2 9.0 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.2 Saudi Arabia 9.3 8.9 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.8 9.4 9.5 9.6 10.2 10.2 9.9 South Sudan 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Sudan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 UAE 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.5 Venezuela 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 OPEC+ Crude 41.9 41.7 41.4 41.4 41.6 41.8 42.7 43.6 43.4 42.9 41.0 41.9 44.1 44.1 42.8 OPEC+ NGLs & Condensate 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.1 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.1 OPEC+ Nonconventionals 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total OPEC+ 50.2 49.9 49.7 49.6 49.9 50.0 50.9 51.8 51.7 51.1 49.0 50.0 52.5 52.6 51.0 Total Supply 102.3 103.1 103.3 103.6 103.1 103.4 105.2 107.9 107.9 106.1 104.0 106.1 109.4 109.3 107.2 Memo items: Call on OPEC+ crude & stock changes 41.2 41.6 42.4 42.2 41.8 41.1 40.9 40.9 40.6 40.9 40.4 39.8 40.3 40.8 40.3 1 Libya and Iran held at most recent level through 2026. 2 OECD Americas excludes Mexico. 3 Eurasia excludes Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan. 4 Other Asia excludes Brunei, Malaysia. 5 Middle East excludes Oman, Bahrain. 6 Africa excludes Sudan, South Sudan. Oil Market Report Tables Table 2 SUMMARY OF GLOBAL OIL DEMAND 2023 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 2026 Demand (mb/d) Table 2: Summary of Global Oil Demand Americas 25.07 24.61 25.30 25.55 25.51 25.25 25.03 25.21 25.91 25.51 25.42 25.13 25.25 25.86 25.55 25.45 Europe 13.42 12.80 13.59 14.01 13.49 13.47 12.92 13.68 13.72 13.38 13.43 12.88 13.56 13.74 13.38 13.39 Asia Oceania 7.22 7.50 6.95 6.89 7.37 7.18 7.31 6.78 6.90 7.16 7.04 7.36 6.67 6.82 7.15 7.00 Total OECD 45.70 44.91 45.85 46.46 46.37 45.90 45.27 45.67 46.53 46.05 45.88 45.38 45.48 46.43 46.07 45.84 Asia 30.85 31.38 31.45 31.16 31.84 31.46 31.75 31.55 31.77 32.74 31.95 32.28 32.10 32.12 33.26 32.44 Middle East 9.24 8.85 9.16 9.74 9.13 9.22 8.82 9.27 9.68 9.08 9.22 8.70 9.30 9.72 9.13 9.21 Americas 6.41 6.28 6.47 6.58 6.55 6.47 6.44 6.56 6.72 6.68 6.60 6.49 6.64 6.79 6.77 6.67 Eurasia 4.77 4.77 4.76 4.79 4.94 4.82 4.82 4.76 4.84 4.88 4.83 4.79 4.71 4.85 4.96 4.83 Africa 4.61 4.53 4.54 4.64 4.73 4.61 4.78 4.78 4.79 4.89 4.81 4.89 4.89 4.89 5.01 4.92 Europe 0.81 0.80 0.85 0.83 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.86 0.85 Total Non-OECD 56.69 56.62 57.22 57.75 58.04 57.41 57.43 57.75 58.65 59.11 58.24 57.97 58.47 59.23 60.00 58.92 World 102.39 101.53 103.07 104.21 104.41 103.31 102.69 103.41 105.18 105.16 104.12 103.35 103.95 105.65 106.07 104.77 of which: United States1 20.28 19.92 20.53 20.65 20.75 20.46 20.31 20.51 20.97 20.65 20.61 20.41 20.55 20.95 20.69 20.65 Europe 52 7.48 7.22 7.60 7.78 7.50 7.52 7.26 7.63 7.54 7.43 7.47 7.24 7.54 7.55 7.39 7.43 China 16.48 16.53 16.58 16.80 16.65 16.64 16.64 16.43 17.04 17.29 16.85 16.83 16.82 17.11 17.42 17.05 Japan 3.29 3.43 2.95 2.91 3.27 3.14 3.35 2.87 2.88 3.19 3.07 3.34 2.80 2.88 3.15 3.04 India 5.45 5.75 5.74 5.31 5.78 5.64 5.80 5.82 5.44 5.87 5.73 5.94 5.94 5.57 6.06 5.88 Russia 3.54 3.56 3.50 3.51 3.59 3.54 3.57 3.47 3.52 3.49 3.51 3.50 3.37 3.49 3.52 3.47 Brazil 3.23 3.20 3.32 3.41 3.39 3.33 3.31 3.35 3.47 3.47 3.40 3.33 3.40 3.50 3.51 3.43 Saudi Arabia 3.61 3.26 3.54 3.87 3.53 3.55 3.18 3.58 3.73 3.40 3.47 3.14 3.59 3.67 3.31 3.43 Canada 2.45 2.37 2.38 2.52 2.48 2.44 2.43 2.33 2.58 2.54 2.47 2.41 2.35 2.55 2.52 2.46 Korea 2.42 2.55 2.50 2.47 2.54 2.51 2.46 2.39 2.50 2.39 2.44 2.50 2.36 2.43 2.41 2.43 Mexico 1.85 1.82 1.89 1.88 1.78 1.84 1.79 1.87 1.85 1.80 1.83 1.79 1.86 1.84 1.81 1.82 Iran 1.97 2.00 1.94 1.93 1.98 1.96 2.00 1.96 1.95 1.97 1.97 1.98 1.94 1.95 1.97 1.96 Total 72.04 71.62 72.47 73.03 73.24 72.59 72.09 72.22 73.48 73.48 72.82 72.42 72.51 73.50 73.78 73.06 % of World 70.4% 70.5% 70.3% 70.1% 70.2% 70.3% 70.2% 69.8% 69.9% 69.9% 69.9% 70.1% 69.8% 69.6% 69.6% 69.7% Annual Change (% per annum) Americas 1.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.7 1.7 -0.4 1.4 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.1 Europe -1.1 -2.3 0.3 2.6 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.6 -2.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.3 -0.9 0.2 0.0 -0.3 Asia Oceania -1.3 -2.7 1.6 -0.8 0.0 -0.5 -2.5 -2.5 0.1 -2.8 -2.0 0.7 -1.7 -1.1 -0.2 -0.5 Total OECD 0.0 -0.9 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 -0.4 0.2 -0.7 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 Asia 5.4 3.2 1.4 0.6 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.3 1.9 2.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.6 1.5 Middle East 1.3 -0.7 -0.4 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 1.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 -1.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 Americas 1.8 0.5 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.0 2.5 1.4 2.0 1.9 2.0 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.1 Eurasia 0.3 1.6 1.4 -0.4 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.1 1.0 -1.3 0.2 -0.7 -1.2 0.2 1.7 0.0 Africa 3.6 -2.7 -1.3 2.1 2.0 0.0 5.5 5.4 3.1 3.3 4.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.3 Europe 1.1 -0.3 8.0 0.9 2.6 2.7 1.4 -1.7 2.6 -0.4 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.6 1.7 Total Non-OECD 3.6 1.6 1.0 0.6 1.9 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.2 World 2.0 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.6 Annual Change (mb/d) Americas 0.25 0.10 0.20 0.32 0.10 0.18 0.42 -0.09 0.36 0.00 0.17 0.10 0.05 -0.05 0.04 0.03 Europe -0.16 -0.31 0.04 0.35 0.12 0.05 0.12 0.08 -0.29 -0.11 -0.05 -0.04 -0.12 0.03 -0.01 -0.03 Asia Oceania -0.09 -0.21 0.11 -0.05 0.00 -0.04 -0.19 -0.17 0.00 -0.21 -0.14 0.05 -0.11 -0.08 -0.01 -0.04 Total OECD 0.00 -0.41 0.35 0.62 0.22 0.19 0.36 -0.18 0.07 -0.31 -0.01 0.11 -0.19 -0.10 0.02 -0.04 Asia 1.57 0.98 0.42 0.17 0.87 0.61 0.37 0.09 0.61 0.90 0.49 0.53 0.55 0.35 0.52 0.49 Middle East 0.12 -0.06 -0.04 0.05 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 0.11 -0.06 -0.04 -0.01 -0.13 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.00 Americas 0.11 0.03 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.06 0.16 0.09 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.05 0.08 0.07 0.10 0.07 Eurasia 0.02 0.08 0.06 -0.02 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.05 -0.06 0.01 -0.03 -0.06 0.01 0.08 0.00 Africa 0.16 -0.13 -0.06 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.25 0.24 0.14 0.16 0.20 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.11 Europe 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 -0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 Total Non-OECD 1.98 0.90 0.54 0.36 1.10 0.72 0.81 0.53 0.89 1.07 0.83 0.55 0.72 0.58 0.88 0.68 World 1.99 0.48 0.89 0.98 1.32 0.92 1.17 0.35 0.97 0.76 0.81 0.66 0.54 0.48 0.90 0.64 Revisions to Oil Demand from Last Month's Report (mb/d) Americas 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.11 0.06 0.13 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.06 Europe 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.05 0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.07 0.05 -0.03 Asia Oceania 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 -0.09 -0.02 0.06 0.02 Total OECD 0.00 -0.03 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.04 0.08 0.05 0.16 0.08 0.20 -0.10 -0.07 0.17 0.05 Asia 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.05 -0.05 -0.04 -0.10 -0.06 -0.08 -0.18 -0.11 -0.13 -0.12 Middle East 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.06 -0.02 -0.26 -0.05 -0.04 -0.06 -0.10 Americas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 Eurasia 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.06 Africa 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 Europe 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.04 Total Non-OECD 0.09 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.04 0.06 0.04 -0.06 0.02 -0.23 -0.17 -0.08 -0.14 -0.16 World 0.09 0.04 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.14 0.09 0.10 0.10 -0.03 -0.27 -0.15 0.04 -0.11 Revisions to Oil Demand Growth from Last Month's Report (mb/d) World 0.02 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 0.04 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.04 -0.11 -0.41 -0.24 -0.06 -0.21 1 US figures exclude US territories. 2 France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK. Oil Market Report Tables Table 2a: OECD Regional Oil Table Demand2a 1 OECD REGIONAL OIL DEMAND (million barrels per day) Latest month vs. 2024 2025 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 2 Nov 25 Dec 24 Americas LPG and ethane 4.37 4.49 4.70 4.00 4.50 4.78 4.63 4.68 5.02 0.33 0.01 Naphtha 0.22 0.24 0.23 0.25 0.23 0.24 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.00 0.02 Motor gasoline 10.60 10.59 10.25 10.78 10.85 10.47 10.53 10.40 10.48 0.08 0.09 Jet and kerosene 2.00 2.05 1.93 2.10 2.12 2.05 2.09 2.01 2.05 0.04 0.02 Gasoil/diesel oil 5.28 5.30 5.38 5.26 5.24 5.33 5.54 5.22 5.22 0.00 0.05 Residual fuel oil 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.40 0.47 0.47 0.43 0.48 0.51 0.03 0.05 Other products 2.34 2.30 2.10 2.42 2.50 2.18 2.27 2.15 2.12 -0.02 0.09 Total 25.25 25.42 25.03 25.21 25.91 25.51 25.70 25.18 25.64 0.46 0.34 Europe LPG and ethane 1.09 1.07 1.09 1.06 1.02 1.10 1.05 1.11 1.14 0.03 0.02 Naphtha 0.92 0.86 1.02 0.84 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.82 0.04 -0.07 Motor gasoline 2.24 2.33 2.17 2.41 2.41 2.32 2.37 2.24 2.34 0.10 0.15 Jet and kerosene 1.51 1.57 1.35 1.62 1.77 1.54 1.67 1.46 1.48 0.02 0.10 Gasoil/diesel oil 5.91 5.90 5.68 6.03 5.92 5.97 6.24 5.76 5.91 0.15 0.27 Residual fuel oil 0.68 0.60 0.62 0.60 0.61 0.58 0.58 0.60 0.57 -0.03 -0.06 Other products 1.12 1.10 1.00 1.12 1.19 1.08 1.14 1.04 1.05 0.01 -0.02 Total 13.47 13.43 12.92 13.68 13.72 13.38 13.84 12.99 13.30 0.32 0.38 Asia Oceania LPG and ethane 0.75 0.73 0.77 0.70 0.68 0.77 0.70 0.72 0.87 0.15 0.09 Naphtha 1.81 1.76 1.81 1.70 1.81 1.73 1.73 1.77 1.71 -0.06 -0.10 Motor gasoline 1.41 1.41 1.35 1.37 1.49 1.41 1.40 1.36 1.48 0.12 0.03 Jet and kerosene 0.84 0.86 1.05 0.74 0.70 0.94 0.79 0.91 1.11 0.20 -0.01 Gasoil/diesel oil 1.85 1.82 1.80 1.81 1.81 1.86 1.87 1.79 1.92 0.12 0.02 Residual fuel oil 0.38 0.37 0.38 0.33 0.36 0.39 0.36 0.39 0.40 0.01 -0.02 Other products 0.15 0.10 0.16 0.13 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.10 0.03 -0.07 -0.10 Total 7.18 7.04 7.31 6.78 6.90 7.16 6.92 7.04 7.51 0.47 -0.09 OECD LPG and ethane 6.20 6.29 6.56 5.75 6.20 6.64 6.38 6.51 7.03 0.51 0.12 Naphtha 2.95 2.86 3.05 2.79 2.83 2.76 2.73 2.78 2.77 -0.01 -0.15 Motor gasoline 14.25 14.32 13.77 14.56 14.75 14.20 14.30 13.99 14.30 0.30 0.27 Jet and kerosene 4.35 4.48 4.33 4.46 4.60 4.52 4.55 4.38 4.63 0.25 0.11 Gasoil/diesel oil 13.04 13.02 12.85 13.10 12.97 13.16 13.65 12.77 13.04 0.27 0.35 Residual fuel oil 1.50 1.42 1.46 1.33 1.43 1.44 1.38 1.47 1.48 0.01 -0.02 Other products 3.61 3.50 3.26 3.67 3.74 3.32 3.48 3.29 3.20 -0.08 -0.03 Total 45.90 45.88 45.27 45.67 46.53 46.05 46.47 45.21 46.46 1.25 0.63 1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils. Americas comprises US 50 states, US territories, Mexico, Canada and Chile. 2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS). Oil Market Report Tables Table OECD Table 2b: Oil Demand in Selected 2b Countries1 OIL DEMAND IN SELECTED OECD COUNTRIES (million barrels per day) Latest month vs. 2024 2025 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 2 Nov 25 Dec 24 United States3 LPG and ethane 3.48 3.64 3.82 3.29 3.62 3.85 3.70 3.74 4.10 0.36 -0.01 Naphtha 0.13 0.15 0.13 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.02 0.03 Motor gasoline 8.97 8.91 8.64 9.08 9.12 8.78 8.89 8.68 8.78 0.10 0.01 Jet and kerosene 1.70 1.74 1.62 1.80 1.78 1.74 1.79 1.69 1.75 0.06 0.03 Gasoil/diesel oil 4.12 4.12 4.21 4.09 4.04 4.14 4.32 4.04 4.06 0.02 0.00 Residual fuel oil 0.29 0.31 0.32 0.26 0.33 0.35 0.31 0.35 0.38 0.02 0.07 Other products 1.77 1.74 1.57 1.84 1.93 1.63 1.70 1.58 1.62 0.04 0.10 Total 20.46 20.61 20.31 20.51 20.97 20.65 20.85 20.23 20.85 0.62 0.24 Japan LPG and ethane 0.37 0.36 0.43 0.34 0.30 0.38 0.34 0.36 0.45 0.10 0.03 Naphtha 0.55 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.54 0.57 0.54 0.58 0.60 0.02 0.03 Motor gasoline 0.75 0.75 0.71 0.73 0.82 0.75 0.72 0.72 0.79 0.07 0.02 Jet and kerosene 0.43 0.43 0.61 0.35 0.29 0.48 0.36 0.47 0.62 0.15 -0.04 Diesel 0.42 0.43 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.42 0.45 0.03 0.01 Other gasoil 0.27 0.26 0.29 0.24 0.23 0.27 0.24 0.26 0.30 0.04 0.00 Residual fuel oil 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.00 -0.03 Other products 0.16 0.13 0.16 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.11 -0.02 -0.07 Total 3.14 3.07 3.35 2.87 2.88 3.19 2.94 3.12 3.51 0.39 -0.05 Germany LPG and ethane 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.01 0.00 Naphtha 0.29 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.26 0.27 0.29 0.25 0.26 0.00 -0.02 Motor gasoline 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.00 0.03 Jet and kerosene 0.19 0.19 0.15 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.19 0.18 -0.01 0.00 Diesel 0.63 0.65 0.62 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.00 0.05 Other gasoil 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.25 0.27 0.27 0.25 0.29 0.04 0.00 Residual fuel oil 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 -0.01 -0.02 Other products 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.03 -0.01 -0.03 Total 2.06 2.04 1.98 2.13 2.05 2.01 2.07 1.97 1.99 0.02 0.01 Italy LPG and ethane 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.14 0.02 0.00 Naphtha 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.00 -0.04 Motor gasoline 0.20 0.20 0.18 0.21 0.22 0.20 0.21 0.18 0.20 0.02 0.02 Jet and kerosene 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.13 0.10 0.10 0.01 0.00 Diesel 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.48 0.50 0.49 0.52 0.46 0.49 0.03 0.04 Other gasoil 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.01 Residual fuel oil 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.03 -0.01 -0.01 Other products 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.12 0.14 0.01 0.00 Total 1.24 1.21 1.16 1.23 1.24 1.20 1.29 1.11 1.20 0.09 0.02 France LPG and ethane 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.08 -0.02 0.00 Naphtha 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.10 0.11 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.01 -0.02 Motor gasoline 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.29 0.30 0.28 0.29 0.26 0.30 0.04 0.02 Jet and kerosene 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.18 0.19 0.17 0.19 0.16 0.17 0.01 0.01 Diesel 0.68 0.66 0.63 0.69 0.66 0.65 0.71 0.60 0.65 0.06 0.02 Other gasoil 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.11 0.02 0.02 Residual fuel oil 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 Other products 0.08 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.07 -0.02 0.01 Total 1.51 1.50 1.46 1.52 1.54 1.48 1.57 1.38 1.48 0.10 0.06 United Kingdom LPG and ethane 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.00 -0.01 Naphtha 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Motor gasoline 0.30 0.32 0.31 0.33 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.31 -0.01 0.01 Jet and kerosene 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.33 0.03 0.02 Diesel 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.52 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.50 0.46 -0.04 -0.01 Other gasoil 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.01 Residual fuel oil 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 Other products 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.09 -0.02 -0.01 Total 1.40 1.38 1.36 1.42 1.37 1.38 1.40 1.39 1.36 -0.04 0.01 Canada LPG and ethane 0.51 0.49 0.52 0.36 0.52 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.55 -0.03 0.04 Naphtha 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 -0.01 -0.01 Motor gasoline 0.80 0.83 0.78 0.84 0.87 0.84 0.81 0.86 0.84 -0.03 0.05 Jet and kerosene 0.16 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.21 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.15 -0.03 -0.02 Diesel 0.29 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.34 0.32 0.35 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.03 Other gasoil 0.27 0.28 0.31 0.28 0.25 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.01 -0.01 Residual fuel oil 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 -0.03 Other products 0.34 0.33 0.30 0.37 0.34 0.32 0.34 0.34 0.28 -0.06 -0.01 Total 2.44 2.47 2.43 2.33 2.58 2.54 2.55 2.61 2.47 -0.14 0.05 1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils. 2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS). 3 US figures exclude US territories. Oil Market Report Tables Table 3: World Oil Production Table 3 WORLD OIL PRODUCTION (million barrels per day) 2024 2025 2026 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 Dec 25 Jan 26 Feb 26 OPEC Crude Oil Saudi Arabia 9.09 9.42 9.78 9.71 10.30 10.40 Iran 3.34 3.32 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.59 Iraq 4.31 4.43 4.46 4.34 4.34 4.50 UAE 3.23 3.46 3.61 3.64 3.61 3.64 Kuwait 2.55 2.68 2.59 2.54 2.60 2.54 Nigeria 1.34 1.45 1.42 1.43 1.46 1.31 Libya 1.07 1.25 1.24 1.30 1.33 1.28 Algeria 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.91 0.96 0.96 Congo 0.24 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.27 0.28 Gabon 0.23 0.24 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.20 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.06 Venezuela 0.88 0.95 1.00 0.99 0.68 0.86 Total Crude Oil 27.24 28.44 29.03 28.88 29.29 29.63 of which Neutral Zone 1 0.43 0.45 0.46 0.48 0.54 0.52 Total NGLs 2 5.54 5.59 5.62 5.64 5.40 5.47 5.78 5.81 5.62 5.71 5.75 3 Total OPEC 32.77 34.03 34.67 34.50 35.00 35.37 NON-OPEC4 OECD Americas 28.46 29.37 29.74 30.09 29.40 29.75 29.86 29.95 29.98 28.91 29.37 United States 20.39 21.18 21.55 21.62 21.05 21.71 21.75 21.69 21.36 20.57 21.01 Mexico 1.97 1.83 1.75 1.82 1.81 1.76 1.72 1.70 1.83 1.83 1.82 Canada 6.09 6.35 6.43 6.64 6.52 6.27 6.38 6.55 6.79 6.50 6.53 Chile 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Europe 3.18 3.31 3.47 3.41 3.50 3.52 3.41 3.47 3.53 3.43 3.50 UK 0.70 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.69 0.74 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.68 0.71 Norway 2.00 2.05 2.19 2.13 2.24 2.21 2.13 2.17 2.19 2.19 2.23 Others 0.47 0.55 0.57 0.57 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.59 0.56 0.56 Asia Oceania 0.45 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.44 0.41 0.43 Australia 0.37 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.36 0.33 0.36 Others 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 Total OECD 32.09 33.10 33.63 33.92 33.30 33.67 33.68 33.83 33.95 32.74 33.30 NON-OECD Eurasia 13.49 13.58 13.54 13.46 13.09 13.70 13.65 13.71 13.63 13.15 12.52 Russia 10.70 10.59 10.59 10.64 10.38 10.66 10.65 10.65 10.95 10.62 9.91 Azerbaijan 0.60 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.59 Kazakhstan 1.88 2.10 2.07 1.93 1.82 2.16 2.11 2.18 1.78 1.63 1.71 Others 0.32 0.31 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 Asia 6.92 6.99 6.96 6.91 7.00 7.01 6.94 6.90 6.86 6.93 6.99 China 4.34 4.41 4.40 4.33 4.46 4.44 4.37 4.35 4.28 4.43 4.44 Malaysia 0.54 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.53 0.53 India 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.67 0.67 0.66 Indonesia 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.61 0.57 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.59 0.53 0.58 Others 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.80 0.78 0.78 Europe 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.08 Americas 6.45 7.00 7.57 7.43 7.50 7.44 7.64 7.72 7.52 7.46 7.53 Brazil 3.44 3.85 4.17 4.04 4.10 4.05 4.24 4.28 4.12 4.05 4.14 Argentina 0.84 0.94 1.05 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.06 1.08 1.02 1.02 1.02 Colombia 0.79 0.76 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.77 0.76 0.76 Ecuador 0.48 0.44 0.46 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.46 Guyana 0.62 0.71 0.89 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.92 0.87 0.89 0.88 Others 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 Middle East 3.07 3.13 2.93 3.15 2.57 2.84 3.16 3.16 3.17 3.12 3.10 Oman 1.00 1.01 1.05 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.04 Qatar 1.82 1.86 1.65 1.86 1.32 1.56 1.85 1.85 1.86 1.83 1.82 Others 0.25 0.25 0.23 0.25 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.23 0.24 Africa 2.48 2.45 2.49 2.48 2.45 2.47 2.51 2.53 2.43 2.44 2.49 Angola 1.16 1.07 1.10 1.09 1.06 1.08 1.13 1.14 1.06 1.07 1.09 Egypt 0.57 0.53 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.52 0.52 0.52 Others 0.76 0.85 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.89 0.85 0.85 0.89 Total Non-OECD 32.51 33.23 33.58 33.52 32.69 33.54 33.97 34.10 33.69 33.17 32.72 5 2.39 2.40 2.46 2.41 2.42 2.46 2.49 2.46 2.44 2.45 2.40 Processing gains Global biofuels 3.31 3.36 3.53 3.40 3.10 3.59 3.90 3.52 3.16 3.13 3.08 TOTAL NON-OPEC 70.30 72.09 73.20 73.26 71.52 73.26 74.05 73.92 73.24 71.49 71.50 TOTAL SUPPLY 103.07 106.12 107.93 107.74 106.49 106.87 1 Neutral Zone production is already included in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait production with their respective shares. 2 Includes condensates reported by OPEC countries, oil from non-conventional sources, e.g. GTL in Nigeria and non-oil inputs to Saudi Arabian MTBE. 3 OPEC data based on current membership throughout the time series. 4 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs and oil from non-conventional sources. 5 Net volumetric gains and losses in refining and marine transportation losses. Oil Market Report Tables Table 3a Table 3a: Oil Supply OIL in OECD Countries SUPPLY IN OECD COUNTRIES 1,5 (thousand of barrels per day) 2024 2025 2026 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 Dec 25 Jan 26 Feb 26 United States Alaska 421 421 466 430 433 461 461 507 433 430 416 California Onshore 300 257 240 246 243 241 239 236 246 244 243 Texas 5675 5751 5764 5800 5709 5803 5792 5751 5805 5589 5743 New Mexico 2023 2244 2256 2310 2253 2283 2254 2232 2257 2191 2268 Federal Offshore2 1798 1908 1992 1996 2006 2045 1948 1971 1982 2004 1973 Other US Lower 48 3017 3001 2988 2979 2930 3007 3010 3006 2907 2888 2939 NGLs3 7041 7479 7729 7748 7360 7749 7930 7870 7600 7102 7317 Other Hydrocarbons 111 119 118 115 117 123 115 118 126 119 115 Total 20387 21181 21553 21623 21052 21713 21749 21691 21356 20568 21014 Canada Alberta Light/Medium/Heavy 537 560 567 566 571 569 565 562 560 563 579 Alberta Bitumen 2087 2190 2242 2239 2187 2192 2288 2297 2352 2227 2182 Saskatchewan 449 435 434 442 440 436 432 428 441 440 442 Other Crude 432 469 501 491 482 483 510 527 484 484 482 NGLs3 1118 1192 1217 1282 1292 1202 1155 1220 1355 1266 1278 Other Upgraders 193 192 190 209 200 179 184 196 206 196 202 Synthetic Crudes 1271 1309 1281 1409 1352 1207 1243 1323 1393 1327 1366 Total 6088 6348 6431 6637 6524 6268 6378 6553 6792 6504 6531 Mexico Crude6 1818 1686 1610 1685 1673 1620 1588 1559 1688 1686 1680 NGLs3 148 137 131 133 133 132 131 130 134 133 133 Total 1971 1828 1747 1825 1812 1758 1724 1695 1828 1825 1819 4 UK Brent Fields 10 18 12 16 13 12 11 11 7 15 12 Forties Fields 143 123 124 117 134 115 117 128 115 134 139 Ninian Fields 23 19 17 19 18 18 17 16 21 18 18 Flotta Fields 30 28 26 29 28 24 26 26 30 28 28 Other Fields 434 471 479 474 437 508 478 491 510 421 446 NGLs3 62 58 62 63 63 63 62 62 69 61 64 Total 701 718 720 716 694 739 712 733 751 677 708 Norway4 Ekofisk-Ula Area 123 110 123 121 126 124 122 119 117 128 125 Oseberg-Troll Area 156 157 149 154 153 150 148 145 157 152 153 Statfjord-Gullfaks Area 197 200 191 198 196 193 190 187 205 196 195 Haltenbanken Area 230 231 261 247 266 264 259 255 257 261 267 Sleipner-Frigg Area 961 1006 1058 1051 1081 1069 1051 1032 1090 1082 1066 Other Fields 123 153 220 164 222 227 181 247 157 167 226 NGLs3 210 187 188 192 197 187 185 182 209 202 194 Total 2000 2046 2189 2128 2241 2213 2135 2167 2192 2188 2227 Other OECD Europe Denmark 75 70 64 69 67 65 64 62 68 67 67 Italy 85 84 82 81 83 82 82 81 85 83 84 Türkiye 102 125 137 125 129 134 140 146 121 128 129 Other 57 55 73 72 76 74 72 70 73 77 78 NGLs3 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 Non-Conventional Oils 149 206 202 215 201 202 202 202 232 198 197 Total 475 547 566 571 564 566 567 568 587 561 562 Australia Gippsland Basin 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cooper-Eromanga Basin 15 11 9 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 Carnarvon Basin 75 62 54 57 56 55 54 53 56 56 56 Other Crude 180 174 181 182 177 180 180 186 192 170 191 NGLs3 99 95 98 94 100 98 97 96 106 98 100 Total 369 342 342 343 343 342 340 344 364 334 356 Other OECD Asia Oceania New Zealand 15 15 13 15 13 13 13 12 15 14 13 Japan 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 NGLs3 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Non-Conventional Oils 43 40 33 31 33 33 33 33 34 33 32 Total 71 66 57 57 57 57 57 56 61 58 56 OECD Crude Oil 21611 22055 22347 22402 22226 22470 22319 22370 22460 21973 22270 NGLs3 8702 9172 9449 9536 9169 9455 9583 9583 9496 8886 9109 Non-Conventional Oils5 1773 1872 1830 1985 1909 1749 1783 1877 1998 1879 1917 Total 32085 33099 33625 33923 33304 33675 33685 33830 33954 32739 33296 1 Subcategories refer to crude oil (including field condensates) unless otherwise noted. 2 Only production from Federal waters is included. 3 To the extent possible, condensates from natural gas processing plants are included with NGLs, while field condensates are aggregated with crude oil. 4 North Sea production is grouped into crude streams that include all fields being processed through the named field complex, i.e. the name corresponds to the crude stream not just the field of that name. 5 Does not include biofuels. 6 Mexican crude includes field condensates in this table only. Oil Market Report Tables Table 3b: World Oil ProductionTable 3b (Including OPEC+ based on current WORLD OIL PRODUCTION (OPEC+ crude production based on current agreement ¹) agreement )1 (million barrels per day) 2024 2025 2026 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 Dec 25 Jan 26 Feb 26 OPEC+ Crude Oil Algeria 0.91 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.96 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.91 0.96 0.96 Azerbaijan 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.47 Bahrain 0.18 0.19 0.17 0.19 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.17 0.17 Brunei 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 Congo 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.25 0.27 0.28 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.05 0.06 Gabon 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.20 Iran 3.34 3.32 3.37 3.45 3.46 3.34 3.34 3.34 3.45 3.45 3.59 Iraq 4.31 4.43 3.94 4.46 3.42 3.33 4.50 4.50 4.34 4.34 4.50 Kazakhstan 1.55 1.78 1.76 1.62 1.53 1.87 1.82 1.83 1.50 1.36 1.43 Kuwait 2.55 2.68 2.52 2.59 2.28 2.44 2.68 2.68 2.54 2.60 2.54 Libya 1.07 1.25 1.28 1.24 1.30 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.30 1.33 1.28 Malaysia 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.36 0.36 Mexico 1.55 1.43 1.35 1.42 1.41 1.36 1.33 1.30 1.42 1.42 1.41 Nigeria 1.34 1.45 1.43 1.42 1.41 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.43 1.46 1.31 Oman 0.76 0.77 0.81 0.80 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.82 0.81 0.80 Russia 9.30 9.23 9.23 9.29 9.02 9.30 9.30 9.30 9.60 9.26 8.55 Saudi Arabia 9.09 9.42 9.86 9.78 9.52 9.58 10.17 10.17 9.71 10.30 10.40 South Sudan 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.12 Sudan 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 UAE 3.23 3.46 3.51 3.61 3.32 3.44 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.61 3.64 Venezuela 0.88 0.95 0.98 1.00 0.84 0.99 1.03 1.04 0.99 0.68 0.86 Total Crude Oil 41.60 42.88 42.79 43.39 41.02 41.93 44.09 44.08 43.43 43.33 43.07 of which Neutral Zone 2 0.43 0.45 0.48 0.46 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.54 0.52 Total NGLs 8.26 8.23 8.24 8.27 8.01 8.08 8.39 8.48 8.23 8.32 8.37 TOTAL OPEC+ 49.86 51.11 51.03 51.66 49.02 50.01 52.49 52.56 51.65 51.65 51.43 NON-OPEC+ OECD Americas3 26.48 27.54 27.99 28.27 27.58 27.99 28.14 28.25 28.16 27.08 27.55 United States 20.39 21.18 21.55 21.62 21.05 21.71 21.75 21.69 21.36 20.57 21.01 Canada 6.09 6.35 6.43 6.64 6.52 6.27 6.38 6.55 6.79 6.50 6.53 Chile 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Europe 3.18 3.31 3.47 3.41 3.50 3.52 3.41 3.47 3.53 3.43 3.50 UK 0.70 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.69 0.74 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.68 0.71 Norway 2.00 2.05 2.19 2.13 2.24 2.21 2.13 2.17 2.19 2.19 2.23 Others 0.47 0.55 0.57 0.57 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.59 0.56 0.56 Asia Oceania 0.45 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.44 0.41 0.43 Australia 0.37 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.36 0.33 0.36 Others 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 Total OECD (non-OPEC+) 30.11 31.27 31.88 32.10 31.49 31.92 31.96 32.13 32.13 30.91 31.48 Non-OECD Eurasia 0.32 0.31 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 Asia 6.29 6.36 6.32 6.28 6.36 6.37 6.30 6.27 6.23 6.29 6.35 China 4.34 4.41 4.40 4.33 4.46 4.44 4.37 4.35 4.28 4.43 4.44 India 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.67 0.67 0.66 Indonesia 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.61 0.57 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.59 0.53 0.58 Others 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.68 0.66 0.67 Europe 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.08 Americas 6.45 7.00 7.57 7.43 7.50 7.44 7.64 7.72 7.52 7.46 7.53 Brazil 3.44 3.85 4.17 4.04 4.10 4.05 4.24 4.28 4.12 4.05 4.14 Argentina 0.84 0.94 1.05 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.06 1.08 1.02 1.02 1.02 Colombia 0.79 0.76 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.77 0.76 0.76 Ecuador 0.48 0.44 0.46 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.46 Others 0.91 1.00 1.16 1.15 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.18 1.15 1.16 1.16 Middle East 1.88 1.92 1.70 1.91 1.37 1.62 1.91 1.91 1.92 1.89 1.87 Qatar 1.82 1.86 1.65 1.86 1.32 1.56 1.85 1.85 1.86 1.83 1.82 Others 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 Africa 2.36 2.31 2.34 2.33 2.31 2.31 2.36 2.38 2.31 2.33 2.33 Egypt 0.57 0.53 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.52 0.52 0.52 Others 1.79 1.78 1.83 1.81 1.80 1.80 1.85 1.88 1.79 1.81 1.81 Total non-OECD (non-OPEC+) 17.39 17.98 18.33 18.35 17.93 18.12 18.59 18.66 18.36 18.36 18.48 Processing gains 2.39 2.40 2.46 2.41 2.42 2.46 2.49 2.46 2.44 2.45 2.40 Global biofuels 3.31 3.36 3.53 3.40 3.10 3.59 3.90 3.52 3.16 3.13 3.08 TOTAL NON-OPEC+ 53.21 55.01 56.19 56.26 54.95 56.09 56.94 56.77 56.08 54.85 55.44 TOTAL SUPPLY 103.07 106.12 107.23 107.93 103.97 106.10 109.42 109.33 107.74 106.49 106.87 1 Libya and Iran held at most recent level through 2026. 2 Neutral Zone production is already included in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait production with their respective shares. Oil Market Report Tables Table 4 OECD STOCKS AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES Table 4: OECD Industry Stocks and Quarterly Stock Changes RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS2 PRIOR YEARS' STOCKS2 STOCK CHANGES in Million Barrels in Million Barrels in mb/d Sep2025 Oct2025 Nov2025 Dec2025 Jan2026³ Jan2023 Jan2024 Jan2025 1Q2025 2Q2025 3Q2025 4Q2025 1 OECD INDUSTRY-CONTROLLED STOCKS OECD Americas Crude 567.7 577.6 578.6 570.7 573.4 615.4 591.0 574.3 0.15 -0.18 0.01 0.03 Motor Gasoline 252.4 238.7 248.8 271.5 289.9 268.3 280.4 280.0 -0.04 -0.02 -0.10 0.21 Middle Distillate 199.3 182.9 197.4 203.6 199.1 190.2 200.9 192.9 -0.16 -0.08 0.19 0.05 Residual Fuel Oil 26.5 27.4 28.4 28.0 28.5 38.7 34.3 30.1 0.03 -0.02 -0.03 0.02 Total Products4 819.4 786.6 803.2 815.1 790.6 739.2 751.2 740.4 -0.64 0.63 0.51 -0.05 Total5 1561.3 1539.3 1553.9 1554.8 1536.8 1515.2 1502.6 1468.3 -0.41 0.48 0.62 -0.07 OECD Europe Crude 345.3 342.2 337.3 330.2 328.8 340.7 322.6 322.0 0.11 -0.08 0.13 -0.16 Motor Gasoline 89.4 88.2 89.9 91.9 99.1 92.1 95.2 93.1 0.05 -0.07 0.00 0.03 Middle Distillate 260.9 249.3 246.1 252.6 251.8 274.9 252.4 268.4 -0.14 -0.04 0.15 -0.09 Residual Fuel Oil 69.4 67.9 67.7 71.4 72.7 67.3 67.1 68.0 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.02 4 Total Products 535.6 516.6 517.2 529.3 537.4 542.7 523.7 542.6 0.01 -0.15 0.22 -0.07 Total5 949.9 929.1 924.3 931.5 940.5 964.0 915.4 935.4 0.16 -0.22 0.33 -0.20 OECD Asia Oceania Crude 116.7 129.5 127.6 124.0 118.1 121.8 125.9 111.9 0.22 0.10 -0.24 0.08 Motor Gasoline 26.6 25.9 26.3 24.4 25.5 26.1 25.4 30.1 0.00 0.00 0.01 -0.02 Middle Distillate 76.0 71.8 73.0 72.2 68.8 65.0 69.0 72.9 0.01 0.03 0.05 -0.04 Residual Fuel Oil 16.9 16.7 19.5 19.0 17.6 15.5 17.4 18.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 4 Total Products 184.2 174.9 179.4 173.0 168.6 168.9 174.2 181.6 -0.02 0.05 0.14 -0.12 Total5 357.6 360.5 361.6 353.0 342.8 350.4 360.7 349.4 0.17 0.18 -0.08 -0.05 Total OECD Crude 1029.6 1049.3 1043.5 1024.9 1020.4 1077.9 1039.4 1008.3 0.48 -0.16 -0.09 -0.05 Motor Gasoline 368.4 352.8 365.0 387.7 414.4 386.5 400.9 403.3 0.02 -0.09 -0.09 0.21 Middle Distillate 536.3 504.0 516.6 528.3 519.7 530.1 522.3 534.2 -0.29 -0.09 0.39 -0.09 Residual Fuel Oil 112.8 111.9 115.6 118.5 118.8 121.4 118.7 116.3 0.06 0.01 -0.02 0.06 4 Total Products 1539.2 1478.0 1499.8 1517.4 1496.5 1450.7 1449.1 1464.6 -0.65 0.53 0.87 -0.24 Total5 2868.7 2828.9 2839.8 2839.3 2820.1 2829.6 2778.7 2753.1 -0.08 0.44 0.87 -0.32 6 OECD GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED STOCKS OECD Americas Crude 407.0 409.6 411.9 413.5 415.2 371.6 358.0 395.1 0.03 0.07 0.04 0.07 Products 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 OECD Europe Crude 180.4 179.5 180.3 178.7 178.5 190.8 189.6 182.3 -0.05 -0.01 0.00 -0.02 Products 269.3 268.7 270.4 274.0 272.6 274.6 275.2 279.5 -0.02 -0.03 -0.06 0.05 OECD Asia Oceania Crude 339.2 337.9 339.8 342.2 341.7 345.0 347.9 346.9 0.02 -0.07 -0.03 0.03 Products 37.8 37.8 37.9 37.9 37.9 35.3 36.0 37.6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total OECD Crude 926.6 927.0 932.1 934.4 935.4 907.4 895.5 924.3 0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.09 Products 308.2 307.5 309.4 312.9 311.6 311.9 313.1 318.0 -0.02 -0.03 -0.06 0.05 Total5 1237.7 1237.6 1243.1 1249.0 1248.6 1221.6 1210.2 1244.1 -0.01 -0.04 -0.03 0.12 1 Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) and include stocks held by industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserve commitments and are subject to government control in emergencies. 2 Closing stock levels. 3 Estimated. 4 Total products includes gasoline, middle distillates, fuel oil and other products. 5 Total includes NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 6 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes. Oil Market Report Tables Table 4a: Industry Stocks on Table 4a Land in Selected Countries 1 INDUSTRY STOCKS ON LAND IN SELECTED COUNTRIES (million barrels) August September October November December 2024 2025 % 2024 2025 % 2024 2025 % 2024 2025 % 2024 2025 % United States2 Crude 417.4 417.3 0.0 415.9 407.9 -1.9 423.6 421.0 -0.6 421.3 420.6 -0.2 413.7 411.2 -0.6 Motor Gasoline 220.4 222.5 1.0 219.7 223.2 1.6 213.2 209.4 -1.8 221.6 219.5 -0.9 238.6 243.8 2.2 Middle Distillate 172.8 167.5 -3.1 171.6 170.6 -0.6 163.2 155.4 -4.8 170.5 167.8 -1.6 176.0 174.0 -1.1 Residual Fuel Oil 25.2 21.2 -15.9 24.2 20.6 -14.9 23.9 21.8 -8.8 22.5 22.3 -0.9 22.9 22.1 -3.5 Other Products 299.9 310.6 3.6 299.4 319.3 6.6 287.8 316.0 9.8 274.9 308.0 12.0 251.8 290.7 15.4 Total Products 718.3 721.8 0.5 714.9 733.7 2.6 688.1 702.6 2.1 689.5 717.6 4.1 689.3 730.6 6.0 Other3 140.2 146.5 4.5 138.6 148.6 7.2 138.4 150.6 8.8 137.0 147.4 7.6 134.3 144.3 7.4 Total 1275.9 1285.6 0.8 1269.4 1290.2 1.6 1250.1 1274.2 1.9 1247.8 1285.6 3.0 1237.3 1286.1 3.9 Japan Crude 81.8 75.9 -7.2 81.7 76.3 -6.6 71.6 77.4 8.1 71.9 78.3 8.9 75.9 80.5 6.1 Motor Gasoline 9.4 10.0 6.4 9.9 10.2 3.0 10.5 10.8 2.9 10.6 10.7 0.9 10.6 9.7 -8.5 Middle Distillate 32.5 36.4 12.0 34.6 36.6 5.8 36.5 35.5 -2.7 35.8 34.4 -3.9 32.2 32.4 0.6 Residual Fuel Oil 7.5 7.5 0.0 7.6 6.4 -15.8 8.1 6.6 -18.5 7.2 6.8 -5.6 7.1 7.0 -1.4 Other Products 33.7 36.6 8.6 35.1 36.0 2.6 33.8 35.8 5.9 33.8 35.7 5.6 35.4 34.2 -3.4 Total Products 83.1 90.5 8.9 87.2 89.2 2.3 88.9 88.7 -0.2 87.4 87.6 0.2 85.3 83.3 -2.3 Other3 47.6 47.8 0.4 50.0 47.8 -4.4 50.2 47.7 -5.0 48.5 46.1 -4.9 46.6 47.2 1.3 Total 212.5 214.2 0.8 218.9 213.3 -2.6 210.7 213.8 1.5 207.8 212.0 2.0 207.8 211.0 1.5 Germany Crude 52.8 48.3 -8.5 51.4 48.2 -6.2 52.4 49.1 -6.3 49.8 48.8 -2.0 51.2 47.7 -6.8 Motor Gasoline 11.5 11.4 -0.9 11.6 11.4 -1.7 12.0 12.6 5.0 12.0 13.8 15.0 12.5 13.9 11.2 Middle Distillate 28.1 28.1 0.0 26.5 27.8 4.9 24.2 27.1 12.0 26.2 28.0 6.9 29.1 27.7 -4.8 Residual Fuel Oil 8.5 7.0 -17.6 8.5 7.0 -17.6 8.6 8.0 -7.0 8.8 7.7 -12.5 7.8 8.0 2.6 Other Products 9.3 9.7 4.3 9.3 9.2 -1.1 9.0 9.8 8.9 9.2 10.1 9.8 9.2 9.8 6.5 Total Products 57.4 56.2 -2.1 55.9 55.4 -0.9 53.8 57.5 6.9 56.2 59.6 6.0 58.6 59.4 1.4 Other3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 110.2 104.5 -5.2 107.3 103.6 -3.4 106.2 106.6 0.4 106.0 108.4 2.3 109.8 107.1 -2.5 Italy Crude 35.2 37.3 6.0 32.2 43.3 34.5 39.2 39.6 1.0 34.4 38.2 11.0 31.8 31.3 -1.6 Motor Gasoline 9.7 9.9 2.1 9.9 10.9 10.1 11.1 9.0 -18.9 9.9 9.9 0.0 10.2 9.9 -2.9 Middle Distillate 23.4 25.7 9.8 22.9 26.9 17.5 23.6 23.1 -2.1 23.5 23.3 -0.9 25.1 24.9 -0.8 Residual Fuel Oil 7.9 7.0 -11.4 7.5 6.9 -8.0 6.3 6.8 7.9 7.1 6.5 -8.5 7.3 7.3 0.0 Other Products 14.3 17.7 23.8 14.9 17.9 20.1 14.3 16.9 18.2 14.4 17.7 22.9 15.4 18.2 18.2 Total Products 55.3 60.3 9.0 55.2 62.6 13.4 55.3 55.8 0.9 54.9 57.4 4.6 58.0 60.3 4.0 Other3 13.5 12.7 -5.9 12.6 13.3 5.6 12.8 13.1 2.3 13.1 13.5 3.1 13.0 13.1 0.8 Total 104.0 110.3 6.1 100.0 119.2 19.2 107.3 108.5 1.1 102.4 109.1 6.5 102.8 104.7 1.8 France Crude 8.5 9.5 11.8 8.7 10.3 18.4 10.5 10.6 1.0 9.3 12.7 36.6 11.0 9.7 -11.8 Motor Gasoline 5.3 6.5 22.6 6.7 6.2 -7.5 5.4 5.9 9.3 4.8 6.4 33.3 4.1 4.9 19.5 Middle Distillate 18.2 18.4 1.1 18.3 16.1 -12.0 16.8 14.3 -14.9 18.1 17.3 -4.4 17.6 15.1 -14.2 Residual Fuel Oil 1.1 1.5 36.4 1.3 1.3 0.0 1.5 1.7 13.3 0.9 1.4 55.6 1.2 1.4 16.7 Other Products 3.4 4.1 20.6 4.0 3.6 -10.0 4.1 3.3 -19.5 4.5 3.6 -20.0 4.5 3.7 -17.8 Total Products 28.0 30.5 8.9 30.3 27.2 -10.2 27.8 25.2 -9.4 28.3 28.7 1.4 27.4 25.1 -8.4 Other3 6.6 7.0 6.1 7.0 7.1 1.4 7.6 7.7 1.3 7.6 7.8 2.6 7.1 8.0 12.7 Total 43.1 47.0 9.0 46.0 44.6 -3.0 45.9 43.5 -5.2 45.2 49.2 8.8 45.5 42.8 -5.9 United Kingdom Crude 26.9 20.9 -22.3 25.3 23.4 -7.5 25.4 21.4 -15.7 25.7 21.3 -17.1 24.7 22.0 -10.9 Motor Gasoline 8.8 7.6 -13.6 9.0 8.1 -10.0 8.4 7.3 -13.1 8.6 7.7 -10.5 9.1 8.0 -12.1 Middle Distillate 20.9 21.4 2.4 22.0 19.9 -9.5 22.9 18.6 -18.8 22.9 19.1 -16.6 23.4 20.8 -11.1 Residual Fuel Oil 1.3 1.3 0.0 1.1 1.2 9.1 1.3 1.0 -23.1 1.5 1.2 -20.0 1.4 1.3 -7.1 Other Products 6.1 9.4 54.1 6.3 8.9 41.3 6.3 9.4 49.2 6.0 9.4 56.7 6.0 9.2 53.3 Total Products 37.1 39.7 7.0 38.4 38.1 -0.8 38.9 36.3 -6.7 39.0 37.4 -4.1 39.9 39.3 -1.5 Other3 8.4 7.0 -16.7 7.7 7.4 -3.9 8.1 7.8 -3.7 8.1 7.1 -12.3 7.9 7.0 -11.4 Total 72.4 67.6 -6.6 71.4 68.9 -3.5 72.4 65.5 -9.5 72.8 65.8 -9.6 72.5 68.3 -5.8 Canada4 Crude 120.4 127.5 5.9 119.8 126.1 5.3 121.6 124.1 2.1 121.7 124.8 2.5 126.0 126.4 0.3 Motor Gasoline 15.5 16.1 3.9 16.1 15.8 -1.9 15.6 16.0 2.6 16.6 16.1 -3.0 16.7 14.8 -11.4 Middle Distillate 19.2 20.3 5.7 17.4 18.4 5.7 17.2 17.9 4.1 18.5 19.3 4.3 19.1 20.0 4.7 Residual Fuel Oil 1.2 1.3 8.3 1.7 1.9 11.8 2.0 1.6 -20.0 1.7 2.1 23.5 1.9 1.9 0.0 Other Products 12.8 12.4 -3.1 12.0 12.7 5.8 11.7 12.6 7.7 11.7 12.1 3.4 12.3 12.7 3.3 Total Products 48.7 50.1 2.9 47.2 48.8 3.4 46.5 48.1 3.4 48.5 49.6 2.3 50.0 49.4 -1.2 Other3 25.2 26.5 5.2 24.1 25.4 5.4 23.5 24.4 3.8 22.0 24.5 11.4 19.7 24.5 24.4 Total 194.3 204.1 5.0 191.1 200.3 4.8 191.6 196.6 2.6 192.2 198.9 3.5 195.7 200.3 2.4 1 Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) and include stocks held by industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserve commitments and are subject to government control in emergencies. 2 US figures exclude US territories. 3 Other includes NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 4 Canadian stock information for recent months is the administration's best estimate. Data are usually finalised three months after first publication. Oil Market Report Tables Table 5 Table 5: Total Stocks on Land in OECD Countries1 TOTAL STOCKS ON LAND IN OECD COUNTRIES ('millions of barrels' and 'days') End December 2024 End March 2025 End June 2025 End September 2025 End December 2025 3 Stock Days Fwd2 Stock Days Fwd Stock Days Fwd Stock Days Fwd Stock Days Fwd Level Demand Level Demand Level Demand Level Demand Level Demand OECD Americas Canada 195.7 81 187.5 81 191.3 74 200.3 79 200.3 - Chile 10.4 26 10.9 29 11.6 31 13.8 36 10.5 - Mexico 31.7 18 35.0 19 33.3 18 34.9 19 35.8 - United States4 1631.9 80 1602.4 78 1649.6 79 1698.2 82 1700.6 - Total4 1891.8 76 1857.9 74 1907.9 74 1969.3 77 1969.3 78 OECD Asia Oceania Australia 40.3 36 46.8 41 40.1 35 45.0 38 42.4 - Israel - - - - - - - - - - Japan 497.8 149 496.3 173 502.9 175 502.4 157 499.5 - Korea 173.7 71 185.1 77 195.6 78 180.8 76 185.7 - New Zealand 6.1 36 6.7 44 6.4 42 6.4 39 5.6 - Total 717.9 98 734.9 108 745.1 108 734.6 103 733.1 100 OECD Europe5 Austria 21.9 99 23.7 96 22.4 93 22.0 94 21.7 - Belgium 44.3 73 46.1 74 43.7 75 42.8 73 42.8 - Czechia 23.2 114 22.0 104 22.2 98 22.6 100 22.7 - Denmark 22.1 159 20.5 143 21.1 138 22.3 166 22.7 - Estonia 4.7 219 4.3 163 4.2 171 4.9 227 4.2 - Finland 31.6 198 31.1 172 28.6 158 32.0 191 31.2 - France 153.9 106 151.9 100 150.8 98 148.3 100 147.5 - Germany 264.2 134 257.4 121 255.5 124 253.4 126 257.1 - Greece 29.7 106 33.3 106 30.7 84 29.1 95 28.0 - Hungary 30.6 182 30.6 163 30.4 172 30.2 167 30.4 - Ireland 11.7 76 12.0 76 10.3 67 9.4 58 10.3 - Italy 119.4 103 128.1 104 121.3 98 136.2 114 121.6 - Latvia 4.0 131 3.6 112 3.1 88 3.0 88 3.0 - Lithuania 7.9 147 7.9 117 7.3 102 8.1 124 8.2 - Luxembourg 0.6 13 0.6 12 0.6 12 0.6 13 0.5 - Netherlands 121.1 143 124.4 161 130.9 176 127.9 165 130.5 - Norway 30.1 143 31.2 120 26.2 109 31.4 129 33.4 - Poland 88.8 128 87.8 116 88.6 118 90.4 119 86.9 - Portugal 19.3 95 21.8 97 19.7 84 21.2 100 19.2 - Slovak Republic 13.8 158 14.0 148 13.7 138 14.0 152 13.5 - Slovenia 4.6 103 5.5 106 5.2 102 5.1 99 5.4 - Spain 106.6 81 110.6 84 108.7 81 112.6 83 110.2 - Sweden 36.6 139 33.6 118 34.1 123 36.5 143 36.3 - Switzerland 29.6 156 28.8 147 30.3 155 30.4 153 29.7 - Republic of Türkiye 98.6 98 100.3 88 98.8 77 99.3 85 100.3 - United Kingdom 72.4 53 69.0 49 68.0 50 68.9 50 68.4 - Total 1391.4 108 1400.3 102 1376.5 100 1402.5 105 1385.9 108 Total OECD 4001.1 88 3993.0 87 4029.4 87 4106.4 89 4088.3 90 DAYS OF IEA Net Imports6 - 139 - 140 - 141 - 141 - 141 1 Total Stocks are industry and government-controlled stocks (see breakdown in the table below). Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) they include stocks held by industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserves commitments and are subject to government control in emergencies. 2 Note that days of forward demand represent the stock level divided by the forward quarter average daily demand and is very different from the days of net imports used for the calculation of IEA Emergency Reserves. 3 End December 2025 forward demand figures are IEA Secretariat forecasts. 4 US figures exclude US territories. Total includes US territories. 5 Data not available for Iceland. 6 Reflects stock levels and prior calendar year's net imports adjusted according to IEA emergency reserve definitions (see www.iea.org/netimports.asp). Net exporting IEA countries are excluded. TOTAL OECD STOCKS CLOSING STOCKS Total Government1 Industry Total Government1 Industry controlled controlled Millions of Barrels Days of Fwd. Demand 2 4Q2022 3998 1214 2784 88 27 61 1Q2023 3980 1217 2763 87 27 61 2Q2023 4000 1206 2794 87 26 61 3Q2023 4040 1209 2831 88 26 61 4Q2023 3987 1207 2780 89 27 62 1Q2024 3991 1219 2772 87 27 60 2Q2024 4068 1226 2843 88 26 61 3Q2024 4043 1235 2809 87 27 61 4Q2024 4001 1245 2756 88 28 61 1Q2025 3993 1244 2749 87 27 60 2Q2025 4029 1241 2789 87 27 60 3Q2025 4106 1238 2869 89 27 62 4Q2025 4088 1249 2839 90 28 63 1 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes. 2 Days of forward demand calculated using actual demand except in 4Q2025 (where latest forecasts are used). Oil Market Report Tables Table 6: IEA Member Country Table 6 Destinations of Selected Crude 1 Streams IEA MEMBER COUNTRY DESTINATIONS OF SELECTED CRUDE STREAMS (million barrels per day) Year Earlier 2023 2024 2025 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 Dec 24 change Saudi Light & Extra Light Americas 0.30 0.14 0.17 0.15 0.17 0.24 0.13 0.08 0.29 0.02 0.40 -0.38 Europe 0.58 0.50 0.48 0.49 0.41 0.56 0.46 0.48 0.46 0.44 0.36 0.07 Asia Oceania 1.47 0.96 1.37 1.44 1.25 1.35 1.45 1.35 1.34 1.65 1.45 0.20 Saudi Medium Americas - - - - - - - - - - - - Europe 0.00 - - - - - - - - - - - Asia Oceania 0.21 0.27 0.23 0.25 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.23 0.27 0.25 0.15 0.09 Canada Heavy Americas 2.60 1.90 2.43 2.48 2.12 2.55 2.55 2.65 2.56 2.44 2.29 0.15 Europe 0.11 0.07 0.15 0.14 0.16 0.11 0.21 0.30 0.18 0.14 0.07 0.07 Asia Oceania - 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.00 - 0.01 - - - Iraqi Basrah Light2 Americas 0.21 0.01 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.03 - - - - 0.05 -0.05 Europe 0.32 0.03 0.62 0.58 0.54 0.65 0.73 0.72 0.78 0.69 0.61 0.08 Asia Oceania 0.19 0.00 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.32 0.29 0.28 0.26 0.32 0.30 0.02 Kuwait Blend Americas - - 0.00 - - 0.01 - - - - - - Europe 0.00 - - - - - - - - - - - Asia Oceania 0.46 0.37 0.38 0.36 0.33 0.37 0.44 0.47 0.30 0.53 0.31 0.23 Brazil Americas 0.18 0.16 0.12 0.10 0.16 0.18 0.06 - 0.08 0.10 - -0.10 Europe 0.39 0.47 0.47 0.50 0.45 0.54 0.38 0.41 0.29 0.43 0.50 -0.07 Asia Oceania 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.06 0.09 0.16 0.06 0.06 0.07 -0.01 Guyana4 Americas - 0.08 0.06 - 0.07 0.07 0.08 - 0.12 0.11 - -0.11 Europe 0.18 0.39 0.42 0.43 0.34 0.46 0.44 0.50 0.44 0.37 0.47 -0.10 Asia Oceania - - 0.00 - - - 0.01 - 0.01 0.01 - -0.01 BFOE Americas 0.00 0.00 - - - - - - - - - - Europe 0.48 0.40 0.40 0.43 0.39 0.42 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.37 0.37 0.00 Asia Oceania 0.01 0.02 0.01 - 0.02 - - - - - - - Kazakhstan Americas - - - - - - - - - - - - Europe 0.96 1.17 1.35 1.22 1.38 1.39 1.39 1.28 1.52 1.37 1.00 0.37 Asia Oceania 0.11 0.03 0.04 - 0.08 - 0.09 0.13 0.03 0.10 - -0.10 Venezuelan 22 API and heavier Americas 0.03 0.10 0.05 0.17 0.02 - 0.02 - - 0.07 0.11 -0.04 Europe 0.03 0.06 0.02 0.05 0.01 - - - - - 0.05 -0.05 Asia Oceania - - - - - - - - - - - - Mexican Maya Americas 0.41 0.26 0.24 0.23 0.30 0.24 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.18 0.25 -0.07 Europe 0.08 0.10 0.08 0.11 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.06 0.11 0.06 0.11 -0.04 Asia Oceania 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.06 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.02 0.03 -0.01 USA WTI4 Americas 0.16 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.17 0.27 0.21 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.23 -0.05 Europe 1.12 1.53 1.32 1.36 1.21 1.35 1.37 1.22 1.21 1.67 1.48 0.19 Asia Oceania 0.13 0.43 0.43 0.37 0.47 0.36 0.52 0.41 0.64 0.51 0.33 0.18 Cabinda and Other Angola North America - - - - - - - - - - - - Europe 0.29 0.22 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.20 0.10 0.03 0.09 0.18 0.18 -0.01 Asia Oceania - - - - - - - - - - - - Nigerian Light3 Americas - 0.03 0.01 - 0.03 - - - - - - - Europe 0.52 0.26 0.23 0.23 0.29 0.26 0.20 0.23 0.20 0.27 0.28 -0.01 Asia Oceania 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 - - - - Libya Light and Medium Americas - - - - - - - - - - - - Europe 0.75 0.61 1.00 1.00 1.05 1.00 0.96 0.91 0.84 1.03 1.17 -0.15 Asia Oceania 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 0.01 0.02 -0.01 1 Data based on monthly submissions from IEA countries to the crude oil import register (in '000 bbl), subject to availability. May differ from Table 8 of the Report. IEA Americas includes United States and Canada. IEA Europe includes all countries in OECD Europe except Estonia, Hungary, Slovenia and Latvia. IEA Asia Oceania includes Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Japan. 2 Iraqi Total minus Kirkuk. 3 33° API and lighter (e.g. Amenam Blend, Bonny Light, Escravos, Qua Iboe, Yoho, etc.). 4 Data prior to January 2023 not available. Data prior to January 2024 might not represent a complete set of reporting countries. Oil Market Report Tables Table 7 Table 7: Regional OECD Imports 1,2 REGIONAL OECD IMPORTS (thousand barrels per day) Year Earlier 2023 2024 2025 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 Dec 24 % change Crude Oil Americas 2180 2347 2167 1993 2307 2283 2085 2010 2060 2183 2209 -1% Europe 8571 8639 8519 8485 8350 9044 8194 8446 8388 7755 9081 -15% Asia Oceania 5614 5409 5516 5580 5420 5313 5754 5732 5466 6053 5599 8% Total OECD 16365 16396 16203 16058 16077 16639 16032 16189 15913 15991 16889 -5% LPG Americas 28 25 23 31 21 17 24 14 18 40 38 4% Europe 533 494 513 558 481 478 534 474 551 578 502 15% Asia Oceania 556 564 576 611 572 575 547 512 570 559 592 -6% Total OECD 1116 1083 1112 1200 1074 1070 1105 1000 1140 1176 1132 4% Naphtha Americas 7 6 4 5 5 5 0 0 1 0 1 -95% Europe 161 190 125 135 168 123 74 71 63 88 116 -24% Asia Oceania 1042 1020 1008 1083 943 1054 954 965 1000 898 1060 -15% Total OECD 1210 1217 1137 1223 1116 1183 1028 1036 1064 985 1177 -16% Gasoline3 Americas 763 652 638 496 895 666 497 475 463 550 550 0% Europe 59 68 93 50 125 92 107 137 94 88 61 45% Asia Oceania 186 194 194 184 194 210 186 216 173 169 257 -34% Total OECD 1008 914 925 730 1214 967 789 829 730 808 868 -7% Jet & Kerosene Americas 152 128 141 123 143 139 157 159 197 116 135 -15% Europe 500 579 610 470 627 740 601 625 591 586 514 14% Asia Oceania 139 157 179 224 182 111 198 184 140 269 288 -6% Total OECD 792 864 930 818 952 991 956 967 929 971 937 4% Gasoil/Diesel Americas 92 51 45 77 37 36 31 36 25 34 32 7% Europe 1091 1209 989 879 1058 1016 1001 1080 939 983 1015 -3% Asia Oceania 363 368 384 423 375 393 344 303 356 374 444 -16% Total OECD 1545 1629 1418 1379 1469 1445 1377 1419 1320 1390 1491 -7% Heavy Fuel Oil Americas 74 56 74 61 80 71 85 76 48 131 77 72% Europe 149 146 151 175 152 154 124 130 140 101 149 -32% Asia Oceania 109 120 104 127 79 126 85 106 94 57 152 -63% Total OECD 331 322 329 363 311 351 294 312 282 289 378 -23% Other Products Americas 448 397 352 359 319 460 271 286 243 285 245 16% Europe 570 574 593 562 550 598 660 573 669 739 504 47% Asia Oceania 155 153 136 140 133 133 137 152 149 110 146 -24% Total OECD 1174 1125 1081 1062 1001 1192 1068 1010 1060 1134 895 27% Total Products Americas 1563 1316 1278 1152 1499 1395 1066 1045 996 1156 1078 7% Europe 3063 3260 3074 2829 3160 3201 3101 3090 3048 3163 2861 11% Asia Oceania 2550 2577 2580 2793 2478 2603 2451 2437 2481 2435 2939 -17% Total OECD 7177 7153 6932 6774 7138 7199 6618 6573 6525 6754 6878 -2% Total Oil Americas 3744 3663 3445 3144 3806 3677 3151 3055 3056 3339 3287 2% Europe 11634 11899 11593 11314 11510 12246 11295 11537 11436 10918 11942 -9% Asia Oceania 8164 7987 8097 8373 7898 7915 8205 8170 7947 8489 8539 -1% Total OECD 23542 23549 23135 22831 23214 23838 22651 22762 22439 22745 23767 -4% 1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes and converted to barrels conversion factors available at https://www.iea.org/articles/oil-market-report-glossary#a. 2 Excludes intra-regional trade. 3 Includes additives. Oil Market Report Tables Table 7a Table 7a: Regional OECD Imports From Non- OECD Countries 1,2 REGIONAL OECD IMPORTS FROM NON-OECD COUNTRIES (thousand barrels per day) Year Earlier 2023 2024 2025 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 Dec 24 % change Crude Oil Americas 2129 2274 2106 1942 2224 2231 2024 1945 1983 2142 2163 -1% Europe 6561 6567 6657 6611 6500 7203 6310 6596 6396 5941 6879 -14% Asia Oceania 5047 4779 4802 5016 4610 4726 4860 5047 4473 5049 5109 -1% Total OECD 13737 13620 13565 13569 13333 14160 13194 13588 12852 13133 14150 -7% LPG Americas 27 24 22 31 21 17 19 14 18 25 38 -33% Europe 256 243 219 235 216 220 205 187 194 235 228 3% Asia Oceania 32 40 36 56 37 35 16 23 17 7 23 -69% Total OECD 316 307 277 322 274 272 240 225 229 267 289 -8% Naphtha Americas 3 2 2 3 2 3 0 0 1 0 1 -95% Europe 137 163 119 130 166 116 66 71 48 78 105 -26% Asia Oceania 975 946 922 1032 888 973 797 838 803 751 939 -20% Total OECD 1115 1112 1044 1165 1057 1092 863 909 852 829 1045 -21% Gasoline3 Americas 248 217 261 170 310 275 286 223 283 353 192 84% Europe 42 51 72 40 108 63 77 101 66 63 44 45% Asia Oceania 186 186 193 184 194 210 186 216 173 169 257 -34% Total OECD 476 454 526 394 611 548 549 540 521 586 493 19% Jet & Kerosene Americas 67 39 45 64 46 30 41 25 60 40 41 -3% Europe 444 532 555 461 594 636 529 575 502 507 468 8% Asia Oceania 139 157 179 224 182 111 198 184 140 269 288 -6% Total OECD 651 729 779 750 823 777 768 784 703 816 797 2% Gasoil/Diesel Americas 58 25 18 44 21 4 4 0 1 11 19 -43% Europe 895 923 768 641 876 764 791 787 783 803 628 28% Asia Oceania 363 368 384 423 375 393 344 303 356 374 444 -16% Total OECD 1315 1316 1170 1108 1272 1162 1139 1091 1139 1187 1091 9% Heavy Fuel Oil Americas 62 49 54 46 63 54 53 41 32 87 63 38% Europe 124 110 125 157 111 122 109 101 138 90 119 -24% Asia Oceania 109 118 104 127 79 126 85 106 94 57 152 -63% Total OECD 294 277 283 331 253 301 248 248 263 234 334 -30% Other Products Americas 370 310 278 271 241 382 218 219 211 225 193 17% Europe 353 306 328 304 311 367 330 346 304 339 267 27% Asia Oceania 80 79 75 76 75 76 74 77 83 61 69 -11% Total OECD 803 696 682 652 627 825 622 642 599 625 528 18% Total Products Americas 835 666 681 630 704 765 623 521 606 742 547 36% Europe 2251 2329 2187 1969 2382 2287 2107 2169 2035 2115 1858 14% Asia Oceania 1884 1895 1893 2122 1831 1925 1700 1747 1665 1688 2172 -22% Total OECD 4970 4890 4761 4720 4917 4977 4431 4437 4306 4545 4577 -1% Total Oil Americas 2964 2940 2787 2572 2928 2996 2647 2467 2589 2884 2710 6% Europe 8813 8897 8844 8580 8882 9490 8418 8765 8431 8056 8738 -8% Asia Oceania 6931 6674 6696 7137 6440 6651 6561 6793 6138 6737 7280 -7% Total OECD 18708 18510 18326 18289 18250 19137 17625 18025 17158 17678 18728 -6% 1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes and converted to barrels conversion factors available at https://www.iea.org/articles/oil-market-report-glossary#a. 2 Excludes intra-regional trade. 3 Includes additives. Oil Market Report Tables Table Table 7b: Inter-Regional OECD 7b Transfers INTER-REGIONAL OECD TRANSFERS1,2 (thousand barrels per day) Year Earlier 2023 2024 2025 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 Dec 24 % change Crude Oil Americas 51 73 61 50 83 51 61 65 77 41 46 -12% Europe 2010 2072 1862 1874 1850 1842 1884 1851 1991 1814 2202 -18% Asia Oceania 567 631 714 564 810 586 893 686 993 1004 491 105% Total OECD 2628 2776 2638 2489 2743 2479 2838 2601 3062 2858 2739 4% LPG Americas 0 1 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 14 0 92244% Europe 276 250 294 324 265 258 329 287 358 343 274 25% Asia Oceania 524 524 540 555 535 540 531 489 554 552 569 -3% Total OECD 800 776 835 878 799 798 865 776 911 909 843 8% Naphtha Americas 4 4 2 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 na Europe 24 27 5 5 2 7 8 0 15 10 11 -9% Asia Oceania 67 74 86 52 55 81 157 127 197 147 121 21% Total OECD 95 105 93 58 60 90 165 127 212 156 132 18% Gasoline3 Americas 515 435 378 326 585 390 210 253 180 197 358 -45% Europe 17 17 22 11 17 28 30 36 28 25 17 46% Asia Oceania 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -54% Total OECD 532 459 399 337 602 419 240 289 209 222 375 -41% Jet & Kerosene Americas 86 89 95 59 97 110 115 134 138 76 94 -20% Europe 56 47 55 9 33 105 72 49 89 79 47 70% Asia Oceania 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 154% Total OECD 142 136 150 68 130 214 188 183 227 155 141 10% Gasoil/Diesel Americas 34 27 27 33 16 32 28 36 24 23 13 78% Europe 196 286 220 238 182 252 210 293 156 180 387 -54% Asia Oceania 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -100% Total OECD 230 313 247 271 197 284 238 328 180 203 400 -49% Heavy Fuel Oil Americas 12 7 20 14 17 17 32 35 16 44 13 233% Europe 25 36 26 17 41 33 14 29 2 11 30 -63% Asia Oceania 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na Total OECD 37 45 46 32 57 50 46 64 18 55 44 27% Other Products Americas 78 87 74 88 77 78 53 67 31 60 53 14% Europe 217 268 265 258 239 231 330 226 365 400 237 69% Asia Oceania 76 74 61 64 58 57 63 75 65 49 77 -36% Total OECD 371 429 399 410 375 367 446 368 461 509 367 39% Total Products Americas 728 650 597 522 795 630 443 524 390 414 531 -22% Europe 812 930 887 861 778 914 994 921 1013 1048 1002 5% Asia Oceania 666 682 687 671 648 678 751 691 816 748 768 -3% Total OECD 2206 2263 2171 2054 2221 2222 2187 2135 2219 2209 2301 -4% Total Oil Americas 780 723 659 572 879 681 504 588 467 455 577 -21% Europe 2821 3003 2749 2735 2628 2756 2878 2772 3004 2861 3204 -11% Asia Oceania 1233 1313 1401 1235 1458 1264 1644 1377 1809 1752 1258 39% Total OECD 4834 5039 4809 4542 4964 4701 5025 4737 5280 5068 5039 1% 1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes and converted to barrels conversion factors available at https://www.iea.org/articles/oil-market-report-glossary#a. 2 Excludes intra-regional trade. 3 Includes additives. Oil Market Report Tables Table Table 8: Regional OECD Crude 8 Imports by Source 1 REGIONAL OECD CRUDE IMPORTS BY SOURCE (thousand barrels per day) Year Earlier 2023 2024 2025 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 Dec 24 change OECD Americas Venezuela 133 228 140 251 124 48 137 136 139 137 296 -159 Other Central & South America 897 1034 1051 901 1122 1187 990 892 966 1111 862 250 North Sea 48 73 61 50 83 51 61 65 77 41 46 -5 Other OECD Europe 1 - - - - - - - - - - - Non-OECD Europe - - - - - - - - - - - - Eurasia 32 38 30 22 52 37 11 33 - - 14 -14 Saudi Arabia 402 323 325 329 322 309 340 372 317 330 248 83 Kuwait 21 21 14 12 12 23 9 13 - 15 20 -5 Iran 5 - - - - - - - - - - - Iraq 213 198 179 170 175 178 190 98 246 228 220 8 Oman - - - - - - - - - - - - United Arab Emirates 17 39 28 40 19 34 19 33 24 - 66 -66 Other Middle East - - - - - - - - - - - - West Africa2 260 262 245 145 305 300 226 241 227 211 307 -95 Other Africa 144 130 95 72 91 115 101 127 64 109 130 -21 Asia 3 - - - - - - - - - - - Other 4 - - - - - - - - - - - Total 2180 2347 2167 1993 2307 2283 2085 2010 2060 2183 2209 -26 of which Non-OECD 2129 2274 2106 1942 2224 2231 2024 1945 1983 2142 2163 -21 OECD Europe Canada 169 107 205 179 214 188 240 385 182 150 103 47 United States 1680 1758 1484 1493 1466 1492 1484 1361 1566 1527 1803 -276 Mexico 159 206 172 201 171 159 156 100 239 131 295 -164 Venezuela 28 66 18 61 12 - - - - - 59 -59 Other Central & South America 614 850 704 843 643 764 569 721 501 481 1040 -558 Non-OECD Europe 17 10 9 11 10 9 6 9 4 4 16 -12 Eurasia 1841 1957 1988 1926 2082 2109 1834 1969 1948 1588 1896 -309 Saudi Arabia 755 726 657 661 616 745 607 585 649 589 493 96 Kuwait 2 3 - - - - - - - - 14 -14 Iran - 0 - - - - - - - - - - Iraq 911 669 620 546 520 639 772 754 807 757 590 167 Oman 11 - - - - - - - - - - - United Arab Emirates 74 46 8 11 19 - - - - - 64 -64 Other Middle East 26 3 2 - 2 4 3 9 - - - - West Africa2 1067 956 773 793 647 988 661 730 640 613 877 -264 Other Africa 1173 1180 1374 1386 1536 1393 1186 1173 1241 1145 1593 -448 Asia 1 1 5 11 0 2 5 4 4 6 - 6 Other 42 104 501 361 415 552 673 644 607 764 237 527 Total 8571 8639 8519 8485 8350 9044 8194 8446 8388 7755 9081 -1326 of which Non-OECD 6561 6567 6657 6611 6500 7203 6310 6596 6396 5941 6879 -938 OECD Asia Oceania Canada 0 4 14 6 31 12 7 - 20 - - - United States 468 531 611 468 659 513 803 622 848 940 425 515 Mexico 86 72 71 79 87 53 65 64 66 64 65 -2 Venezuela - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Central & South America 91 104 122 117 126 99 146 177 109 151 116 35 North Sea 14 23 18 11 33 8 19 - 59 0 0 0 Other OECD Europe 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Non-OECD Europe - - - - - - - - - - - - Eurasia 111 32 44 - 87 - 89 132 35 99 - 99 Saudi Arabia 1957 1835 1901 2017 1749 1817 2023 1838 1994 2236 2023 212 Kuwait 515 382 380 359 337 379 443 480 302 542 328 214 Iran - - - - - - - - - - - - Iraq 247 263 292 277 278 324 288 283 260 321 301 20 Oman 41 31 36 84 31 24 5 16 - - 16 -16 United Arab Emirates 1294 1422 1337 1450 1307 1402 1193 1313 1110 1152 1452 -300 Other Middle East 329 259 232 273 257 216 185 260 175 118 186 -68 West Africa2 24 16 29 20 27 26 45 62 29 43 - 43 Other Africa 34 41 42 44 37 52 34 - 70 34 32 1 Non-OECD Asia 135 120 143 128 156 131 159 208 134 134 210 -76 Other 269 273 243 249 218 256 250 276 255 220 444 -223 Total 5614 5409 5516 5580 5420 5313 5754 5732 5466 6053 5599 454 of which Non-OECD 5047 4779 4802 5016 4610 4726 4860 5047 4473 5049 5109 -59 Total OECD Trade 16365 16396 16203 16058 16077 16639 16032 16189 15913 15991 16889 -898 of which Non-OECD 13737 13620 13565 13569 13333 14160 13194 13588 12852 13133 14150 -1018 1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes, and converted to barrels at 7.37 barrels per tonne. Data will differ from Table 6 which is based on submissions in barrels. 2 West Africa includes Angola, Nigeria, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Congo and Democratic Republic of Congo. Oil Market Report Tables Table 9 1 REGIONAL OECD GASOLINE IMPORTS BY SOURCE Table 9: Regional OECD Gasoline Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day) Year Earlier 2023 2024 2025 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 Dec 24 change OECD Americas Venezuela - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Central & South America 72 74 89 63 97 73 124 80 100 192 151 41 ARA (Belgium, Netherlands) 151 159 153 94 263 175 82 92 78 76 138 -62 Other Europe 320 223 171 179 245 178 86 124 59 72 189 -117 Eurasia 0 - 0 - - 0 - - - - - - Saudi Arabia 20 20 21 2 39 25 18 21 22 10 - 10 Algeria 8 - - - - - - - - - - - Other Middle East & Africa 17 10 21 26 22 25 11 13 20 - - - Singapore 25 16 10 0 9 18 12 16 11 10 - 10 OECD Asia Oceania 47 55 53 54 77 38 43 36 43 49 30 19 Non-OECD Asia (excl. Singapore) 102 95 119 79 142 134 121 93 130 141 41 99 Other - - - - - - - - - - - - Total2 763 652 638 496 895 666 497 475 463 550 550 1 of which Non-OECD 248 217 261 170 310 275 286 223 283 353 192 161 OECD Europe OECD Americas 16 16 17 10 13 17 27 36 28 17 12 6 Venezuela 2 3 3 3 3 2 5 8 1 5 0 5 Other Central & South America 5 8 10 7 16 6 12 13 14 8 8 0 Non-OECD Europe 8 10 18 11 24 20 17 22 7 22 7 15 Eurasia 3 1 4 - 5 2 7 19 3 - 2 -2 Saudi Arabia 1 3 4 2 13 0 1 2 0 0 - 0 Algeria 6 10 9 2 14 8 11 9 14 9 6 3 Other Middle East & Africa 5 7 10 5 15 10 9 13 11 5 11 -6 Singapore 3 5 5 5 6 5 3 3 4 2 6 -4 OECD Asia Oceania 2 1 5 1 3 11 2 - - 7 5 2 Non-OECD Asia (excl. Singapore) 3 2 4 0 4 4 8 10 6 8 - 8 Other 5 2 5 3 7 6 4 3 6 4 3 1 Total2 59 68 93 50 125 92 107 137 94 88 61 27 of which Non-OECD 42 51 72 40 108 63 77 101 66 63 44 19 OECD Asia Oceania OECD Americas 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Venezuela - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Central & South America 0 - - - - - - - - - - - ARA (Belgium, Netherlands) 0 6 0 - 0 0 - - - - - - Other Europe 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Eurasia - - - - - - - - - - - - Saudi Arabia 1 - - - - - - - - - - - Algeria - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Middle East & Africa 0 1 0 0 - - - - - - - - Singapore 123 116 123 111 129 127 124 145 102 125 135 -10 Non-OECD Asia (excl. Singapore) 50 58 58 62 54 64 51 61 59 34 112 -78 Other 12 11 13 11 11 19 11 11 11 11 11 0 Total2 186 194 194 184 194 210 186 216 173 169 257 -88 of which Non-OECD 186 186 193 184 194 210 186 216 173 169 257 -88 Total OECD Trade2 1008 914 925 730 1214 967 789 829 730 808 868 -60 of which Non-OECD 476 454 526 394 611 548 549 540 521 586 493 92 1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes. 2 Total figure excludes intra-regional trade. Oil Market Report Tables Table 10: Regional OECD Gasoil/Diesel Table 10 Imports by Source 1 REGIONAL OECD GASOIL/DIESEL IMPORTS BY SOURCE (thousand barrels per day) Year Earlier 2023 2024 2025 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 Dec 24 change OECD Americas Venezuela - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Central & South America 20 23 6 8 13 4 0 - 1 - 17 -17 ARA (Belgium, Netherlands) 1 - 5 20 0 - - - - - - - Other Europe 2 1 1 1 1 3 0 - 1 - 0 0 Eurasia 0 - - - - - - - - - - - Saudi Arabia 4 - - - - - - - - - - - Algeria - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Middle East & Africa 6 0 7 26 4 - - - - - 2 -2 Singapore 2 - 0 1 0 - - - - - - - OECD Asia Oceania 31 26 21 12 15 29 27 36 22 23 13 10 Non-OECD Asia (excl. Singapore) 22 2 1 - 4 0 - - - - - - Other 5 - 3 9 - 0 4 - - 11 - 11 Total2 92 51 45 77 37 36 31 36 25 34 32 2 of which Non-OECD 58 25 18 44 21 4 4 0 1 11 19 -8 OECD Europe OECD Americas 173 280 211 221 171 251 203 282 152 172 380 -209 Venezuela - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Central & South America 1 0 1 0 5 0 0 0 - 1 - 1 Non-OECD Europe 14 23 23 14 28 29 22 21 24 21 32 -11 Eurasia 271 278 262 246 282 286 236 250 202 254 305 -51 Saudi Arabia 165 172 193 151 236 203 180 231 203 108 38 70 Algeria - - 1 - - - 4 - - 11 - 11 Other Middle East & Africa 241 257 138 112 169 126 145 121 161 153 129 24 Singapore 19 22 40 40 39 32 49 45 41 60 20 40 OECD Asia Oceania 23 6 9 17 11 0 7 10 4 8 7 1 Non-OECD Asia (excl. Singapore) 173 163 81 46 81 62 133 97 136 167 95 73 Other 9 8 29 33 36 25 22 23 16 28 10 18 Total2 1091 1209 989 879 1058 1016 1001 1080 939 983 1015 -33 of which Non-OECD 895 923 768 641 876 764 791 787 783 803 628 175 OECD Asia Oceania OECD Americas 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - Venezuela - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Central & South America 1 0 - - - - - - - - - - ARA (Belgium, Netherlands) 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - Other Europe 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 - - 0 0 Eurasia - - 0 0 - - - - - - - - Saudi Arabia 2 - - - - - - - - - - - Algeria - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Middle East & Africa 4 9 16 9 16 17 24 - 25 46 41 5 Singapore 102 95 118 140 107 108 117 126 140 86 94 -8 Non-OECD Asia (excl. Singapore) 247 261 243 272 248 254 200 175 186 239 307 -68 Other 6 3 6 2 4 15 3 2 4 2 2 0 Total2 363 368 384 423 375 393 344 303 356 374 444 -71 of which Non-OECD 363 368 384 423 375 393 344 303 356 374 444 -71 Total OECD Trade2 1545 1629 1418 1379 1469 1445 1377 1419 1320 1390 1491 -101 of which Non-OECD 1315 1316 1170 1108 1272 1162 1139 1091 1139 1187 1091 96 1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes. 2 Total figure excludes intra-regional trade. Oil Market Report Tables Table 11: Regional OECD Jet Table and 11Kerosene Imports by Source 1 REGIONAL OECD JET AND KEROSENE IMPORTS BY SOURCE Table 11: Regional OECD Jet and Kerosene Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day) Year Earlier 2023 2024 2025 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 Dec 24 change OECD Americas Venezuela - 0 0 1 - - - - - - 2 -2 Other Central & South America 1 0 0 - - - 0 - - 0 4 -4 ARA (Belgium, Netherlands) 0 0 0 - - - 2 5 - - - - Other Europe 3 1 4 1 4 11 2 0 6 - - - Eurasia - - - - - - - - - - - - Saudi Arabia 4 3 - - - - - - - - - - Algeria - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Middle East & Africa 30 13 19 29 20 7 20 25 22 14 24 -10 Singapore 2 2 4 2 8 2 5 - 16 - 7 -7 OECD Asia Oceania 83 88 91 58 93 98 112 129 131 76 94 -19 Non-OECD Asia (excl. Singapore) 25 20 22 33 17 21 16 0 22 26 5 21 Other 3 - - - - - - - - - 0 0 Total2 152 128 141 123 143 139 157 159 197 116 135 -20 of which Non-OECD 67 39 45 64 46 30 41 25 60 40 41 -1 OECD Europe OECD Americas 7 21 24 8 21 33 36 16 31 60 39 21 Venezuela - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Central & South America 1 1 0 - 0 - 1 2 - 1 1 0 Non-OECD Europe 2 2 1 1 1 0 2 1 2 2 - 2 Eurasia 15 16 20 17 21 29 12 - 17 20 18 2 Saudi Arabia 52 58 52 46 61 61 41 58 11 52 106 -54 Algeria - - 1 - - - 4 7 5 - - - Other Middle East & Africa 222 321 344 360 360 352 305 304 312 299 321 -22 Singapore 7 5 4 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 7 -1 OECD Asia Oceania 49 26 31 1 12 72 37 34 58 19 8 12 Non-OECD Asia (excl. Singapore) 140 124 125 28 138 180 152 194 146 116 5 111 Other 5 6 8 6 9 8 7 4 5 12 11 2 Total2 500 579 610 470 627 740 601 625 591 586 514 72 of which Non-OECD 444 532 555 461 594 636 529 575 502 507 468 39 OECD Asia Oceania OECD Americas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Venezuela - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Central & South America - - 0 - - 0 0 - - 0 - 0 ARA (Belgium, Netherlands) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - 0 0 0 Other Europe 0 0 0 - - 0 - - - - 0 0 Eurasia - - - - - - - - - - - - Saudi Arabia - - - - - - - - - - - - Algeria - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Middle East & Africa 0 2 3 14 0 0 - - - - 28 -28 Singapore 41 40 47 46 37 39 64 82 49 61 48 13 Non-OECD Asia (excl. Singapore) 62 84 99 123 113 54 106 83 71 164 134 30 Other 36 32 30 41 33 18 28 19 21 44 77 -33 Total2 139 157 179 224 182 111 198 184 140 269 288 -19 of which Non-OECD 139 157 179 224 182 111 198 184 140 269 288 -19 Total OECD Trade2 792 864 930 818 952 991 956 967 929 971 937 34 of which Non-OECD 651 729 779 750 823 777 768 784 703 816 797 20 1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes. 2 Total figure excludes intra-regional trade. Oil Market Report Tables Table 12: Regional OECD Residual Table 12Fuel Oil Imports by Source 1 REGIONAL OECD RESIDUAL FUEL OIL IMPORTS BY SOURCE (thousand barrels per day) Year Earlier 2023 2024 2025 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 Dec 24 change OECD Americas Venezuela - 1 - - - - - - - - - - Other Central & South America 37 33 38 37 50 32 34 27 16 59 43 15 ARA (Belgium, Netherlands) 4 1 10 11 6 4 20 22 1 35 3 33 Other Europe 6 5 10 3 10 13 12 13 15 9 11 -2 Eurasia 1 1 1 1 2 - - - - - - - Saudi Arabia 1 1 5 - - 11 9 5 12 10 1 9 Algeria 6 6 7 4 6 11 6 7 3 7 17 -11 Other Middle East & Africa 10 5 3 4 4 0 4 1 - 12 2 10 Singapore 0 - - - - - - - - - - - OECD Asia Oceania 2 1 - - - - - - - - - - Non-OECD Asia (excl. Singapore) 6 1 - - - - - - - - - - Other 0 - 0 - - 0 0 1 - - - - Total2 74 56 74 61 80 71 85 76 48 131 77 55 of which Non-OECD 62 49 54 46 63 54 53 41 32 87 63 24 OECD Europe OECD Americas 17 31 26 17 41 31 14 29 2 11 18 -7 Venezuela - 1 - - - - - - - - - - Other Central & South America 5 1 4 10 4 - 1 - - 2 - 2 Non-OECD Europe 39 50 51 58 46 46 54 56 50 56 49 6 Eurasia 49 27 25 26 20 31 25 33 27 13 49 -36 Saudi Arabia 3 5 7 - 6 - 23 - 53 18 - 18 Algeria 6 8 12 20 18 6 3 8 2 - 7 -7 Other Middle East & Africa 16 10 21 39 9 35 1 0 3 1 1 0 Singapore 0 1 1 1 - 1 - - - - - - OECD Asia Oceania 8 5 1 - - 2 - - - - 12 -12 Non-OECD Asia (excl. Singapore) 2 4 0 - - 1 - - - - 11 -11 Other 5 3 4 4 9 3 2 4 2 1 2 -1 Total2 149 146 151 175 152 154 124 130 140 101 149 -48 of which Non-OECD 124 110 125 157 111 122 109 101 138 90 119 -29 OECD Asia Oceania OECD Americas - 2 - - - - - - - - - - Venezuela - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Central & South America - - - - - - - - - - - - ARA (Belgium, Netherlands) - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Europe 0 - - - - - - - - - - - Eurasia - - - - - - - - - - - - Saudi Arabia 9 2 2 - - 10 - - - - - - Algeria - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Middle East & Africa 7 25 27 28 21 34 25 20 38 18 75 -57 Singapore 32 31 37 68 21 26 33 47 45 7 20 -13 Non-OECD Asia (excl. Singapore) 60 59 37 31 37 56 26 37 11 31 55 -24 Other 1 2 0 - 0 0 0 1 - - 1 -1 Total2 109 120 104 127 79 126 85 106 94 57 152 -95 of which Non-OECD 109 118 104 127 79 126 85 106 94 57 152 -95 Total OECD Trade2 331 322 329 363 311 351 294 312 282 289 378 -88 of which Non-OECD 294 277 283 331 253 301 248 248 263 234 334 -100 1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes. 2 Total figure excludes intra-regional trade. Oil Market Report Tables Table 13: Average IEA CIF Crude Table Cost 13 and Spot Crude and Production AVERAGE IEA CIF CRUDE COST AND SPOT CRUDE AND PRODUCT PRICES Prices ($/bbl) 2023 2024 2025 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 Sep 25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 Jan 26 Feb 26 CRUDE PRICES 1 IEA CIF Average Import IEA Europe 83.53 79.98 66.97 72.45 65.37 67.69 62.67 67.03 64.34 62.70 61.17 IEA Americas 72.95 72.60 63.54 68.41 63.07 64.67 57.85 62.25 59.17 57.90 56.40 IEA Asia Oceania 86.46 83.47 73.70 79.26 72.60 72.71 70.40 73.21 73.29 69.58 68.50 IEA Total 81.34 78.84 67.75 73.10 66.57 68.07 63.44 67.26 65.30 63.19 61.96 2 SPOT PRICES North Sea Dated 82.61 80.64 69.05 75.70 67.79 69.08 63.67 67.90 64.64 63.63 62.64 66.73 71.09 North Sea Dated M1 82.83 80.62 69.09 75.83 67.73 69.11 63.75 68.33 64.70 64.10 62.37 65.76 70.13 WTI (Cushing) M1 77.65 75.88 64.87 71.47 63.81 65.06 59.24 63.61 60.17 59.56 57.94 60.44 64.50 WTI (Houston) M1 79.08 77.34 65.87 72.81 64.65 66.08 60.06 65.02 61.11 60.33 58.66 61.54 65.60 Urals 3 58.81 65.70 54.07 61.07 54.13 56.63 44.51 55.02 51.70 43.52 37.59 40.06 42.81 Dubai M1 82.05 79.50 69.34 76.89 66.92 70.11 63.80 70.01 65.00 64.46 61.99 62.07 68.40 2,5 PRODUCT PRICES Northwest Europe Gasoline 100.21 93.33 82.12 83.56 80.95 84.33 79.62 86.25 80.97 83.68 74.22 73.01 78.82 Diesel 111.12 100.59 91.81 94.48 85.58 94.83 92.36 94.47 90.92 100.45 85.70 87.58 95.31 Jet/Kero 111.93 100.87 91.52 93.86 86.92 92.25 93.04 92.48 91.57 97.61 89.92 92.11 100.01 Naphtha 72.38 73.84 63.79 71.82 61.90 62.88 58.56 63.26 59.32 59.62 56.75 58.37 63.64 HSFO 70.56 71.79 64.53 70.43 65.66 64.33 57.71 61.55 62.37 58.31 52.45 53.31 60.09 0.5% Fuel Oil 85.74 84.82 71.75 80.30 71.52 72.68 62.50 69.08 64.64 63.83 59.02 60.20 67.47 Mediterranean Europe Gasoline 101.62 95.14 83.88 85.64 81.62 86.27 81.98 88.53 81.74 86.20 78.02 76.12 81.98 Diesel 109.15 99.68 90.84 93.14 84.74 93.99 91.50 94.38 90.86 98.70 84.95 86.71 94.61 Jet/Kero 111.91 100.57 91.36 93.70 86.77 92.09 92.88 92.32 91.42 97.46 89.76 91.96 99.86 Naphtha 70.53 72.26 62.37 70.28 60.56 61.62 57.03 62.02 58.09 58.01 54.98 56.49 61.85 HSFO 67.52 70.28 62.72 68.67 63.67 62.20 56.32 59.43 60.88 56.98 51.11 51.97 58.75 US Gulf Coast Gasoline4 92.20 85.41 76.82 77.53 75.94 81.35 72.45 81.58 74.51 75.16 67.67 68.24 73.88 Diesel4 109.57 94.75 87.94 91.96 82.83 89.83 87.12 90.14 86.94 92.97 81.47 83.81 88.98 Jet/Kero 113.33 98.92 89.41 94.13 84.88 89.47 89.17 90.39 90.48 93.75 83.29 87.99 96.26 Naphtha 74.97 76.16 65.95 75.98 64.14 64.47 59.22 65.12 60.02 61.23 56.42 63.11 67.22 HSFO 68.14 69.11 62.28 67.44 62.07 63.96 55.67 61.54 60.02 56.68 50.30 51.33 55.75 0.5% Fuel Oil 84.92 84.54 71.87 80.53 70.15 72.76 64.05 70.83 65.51 65.05 61.60 63.62 68.76 Singapore Gasoline 94.06 88.48 78.82 83.01 76.72 78.51 77.05 79.49 76.90 78.67 75.57 71.31 75.58 Diesel 106.37 96.41 87.74 91.29 82.73 88.92 88.03 89.19 88.54 93.37 82.17 82.27 90.73 Jet/Kero 104.66 95.31 86.47 90.25 81.20 86.29 88.13 87.14 87.11 93.14 84.13 83.21 89.99 Naphtha 69.57 72.78 64.74 71.83 62.58 63.61 60.95 65.12 61.91 62.18 58.76 59.40 66.39 HSFO 70.34 72.41 65.23 74.42 67.40 62.89 56.23 62.39 59.71 55.87 53.12 57.01 67.16 0.5% Fuel Oil 93.59 92.17 76.91 84.87 77.83 76.73 68.20 74.04 69.95 69.21 65.43 67.22 74.61 1 IEA CIF Average Import price for Dec is an estimate. IEA Europe includes all countries in OECD Europe except Estonia, Hungary and Slovenia. IEA Americas includes United States and Canada. IEA Asia Oceania includes Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Japan. 2 Copyright @ 2026 Argus Media Group - All rights Reserved. Currently, no 0.5% Fuel Oil assessment for Mediterranean is available. 3 Urals spot price changed from Urals cif NWE dated to Urals fob Primorsk dated, including historical data 4 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) removed from the Gasoline and Diesel price from 2020 onwards 5 Price calculation based on working days excluding bank holidays Oil Market Report Tables Table 14 Prices for Petroleum Products Table 14: Monthly Average End-User MONTHLY AVERAGE END-USER PRICES FOR PETROLEUM PRODUCTS February 2026 NATIONAL CURRENCY 1 US DOLLARS Total % change from Ex-Tax % change from Total % change from Ex-Tax % change from Price Jan-26 Feb-25 Price Jan-26 Feb-25 Price Jan-26 Feb-25 Price Jan-26 Feb-25 GASOLINE 2 (per litre) France 1.728 1.1 - 3.9 0.750 2.0 - 7.1 2.043 1.8 9.1 0.887 2.8 5.4 Germany 1.809 1.1 0.4 0.718 1.6 - 2.3 2.139 1.9 14.0 0.849 2.4 11.0 Italy 1.647 0.7 - 9.7 0.677 1.4 - 11.6 1.948 1.4 2.6 0.801 2.2 0.3 Spain 1.462 1.5 - 7.0 0.735 2.5 - 11.0 1.728 2.2 5.6 0.869 3.2 1.0 United Kingdom 1.316 - 1.2 - 5.4 0.567 - 2.4 - 10.0 1.787 - 0.8 2.5 0.770 - 2.0 - 2.4 Japan 156.2 0.6 - 15.3 110.5 0.8 - 0.5 1.006 1.6 - 17.1 0.712 1.7 - 2.6 Canada 1.387 4.7 - 13.9 1.007 5.9 - 5.4 1.016 5.5 - 9.8 0.738 6.8 - 0.9 United States 0.768 3.5 - 6.8 0.632 4.4 - 8.4 0.768 3.5 - 6.8 0.632 4.4 - 8.4 AUTOMOTIVE DIESEL FOR NON COMMERCIAL USE (per litre) France 1.663 2.2 - 2.0 0.778 3.9 - 3.2 1.966 2.9 11.3 0.920 4.7 9.9 Germany 1.720 2.0 2.4 0.836 5.7 3.9 2.034 2.7 16.2 0.989 6.4 18.0 Italy 1.693 2.0 - 2.1 0.714 3.9 - 10.7 2.001 2.7 11.2 0.845 4.7 1.5 Spain 1.414 1.9 - 5.7 0.790 2.8 - 8.3 1.672 2.6 7.0 0.934 3.5 4.2 United Kingdom 1.411 - 1.0 - 3.6 0.646 - 1.7 - 6.4 1.916 - 0.6 4.5 0.878 - 1.3 1.5 Japan 144.5 0.6 - 12.0 96.4 0.9 - 15.7 0.930 1.6 - 13.9 0.621 1.8 - 17.4 Canada 1.657 8.7 - 7.1 1.311 10.0 5.3 1.214 9.6 - 2.6 0.961 10.9 10.3 United States 0.983 5.7 1.3 0.825 7.0 1.4 0.983 5.7 1.3 0.825 7.0 1.4 DOMESTIC HEATING OIL (per litre) France 1.193 0.4 - 1.3 0.832 - 0.4 - 2.2 1.410 1.1 12.1 0.984 0.3 11.1 Germany 0.949 2.7 - 11.9 0.563 3.9 - 19.3 1.123 3.4 0.0 0.665 4.6 - 8.4 Italy 1.394 3.0 - 5.7 0.739 4.6 - 8.5 1.648 3.7 7.1 0.874 5.4 3.9 Spain 0.901 4.1 - 9.2 0.648 4.7 - 10.5 1.065 4.9 3.1 0.766 5.5 1.7 United Kingdom 0.675 4.3 - 6.2 0.541 5.1 - 7.3 0.917 4.7 1.7 0.735 5.5 0.5 Japan 3 121.7 0.6 - 4.0 110.5 0.6 - 4.0 0.784 1.5 - 6.0 0.712 1.5 - 6.0 Canada 1.737 9.0 1.8 1.570 8.9 1.6 1.272 9.9 6.6 1.150 9.8 6.5 United States - - - - - - - - - - - - 4 LOW SULPHUR FUEL OIL FOR INDUSTRY (per kg) France - - - - - - - - - - - - Germany - - - - - - - - - - - - Italy 0.508 3.9 - 21.6 0.476 4.2 - 22.7 0.600 4.7 - 10.9 0.563 4.9 - 12.2 Spain 0.529 1.1 - 14.8 0.512 1.1 - 15.3 0.626 1.8 - 3.3 0.606 1.8 - 3.8 United Kingdom - - - - - - - - - - - - Japan - - - - - - - - - - - - Canada - - - - - - - - - - - - United States - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 Prices for France, Germany, Italy and Spain are in Euros; UK in British Pounds, Japan in Yen, Canada in Canadian Dollars 2 Unleaded premium (95 RON) for France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK; regular unleaded for Canada, Japan and the United States. 3 Kerosene for Japan. 4 VAT excluded from prices for low sulphur fuel oil when refunded to industry. Oil Market Report Tables Table 15: IEA Global IndicatorTable Refining 15 Margins IEA Global Indicator Refining Margins $/bbl 2023 2024 2025 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 Sep 25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 Jan 26 Feb 26 NW Europe Light sweet hydroskimming 5.28 1.81 5.65 2.70 4.66 7.32 7.85 8.00 7.50 11.84 4.34 0.81 1.35 Light sweet cracking 9.42 5.28 8.22 4.51 6.68 10.14 11.46 11.41 10.75 16.20 7.59 3.94 5.18 Light sweet cracking + Petchem 7.44 5.82 8.64 4.85 7.23 10.66 11.74 11.91 10.94 16.62 7.81 4.31 5.68 Medium sour cracking 6.76 4.14 6.04 2.14 4.31 7.10 10.53 9.01 10.40 14.70 6.61 2.94 6.12 Medium sour cracking + Petchem 7.19 4.46 6.78 2.73 5.20 7.94 11.17 9.82 11.19 15.40 7.04 3.56 6.85 Mediterranean Light sweet hydroskimming 5.38 2.34 6.09 3.20 5.40 7.77 7.92 8.43 7.64 11.82 4.42 0.22 1.44 Light sweet cracking 8.11 3.91 6.82 3.20 5.21 8.78 9.99 10.29 9.47 14.40 6.24 2.56 4.40 Medium sour cracking 6.62 4.31 6.28 2.07 4.36 7.59 11.00 9.42 11.09 14.84 7.20 3.99 5.59 US Gulf Coast Light sweet cracking 15.53 9.51 11.72 9.21 10.84 13.34 13.44 14.75 13.96 16.64 9.82 9.01 10.47 Medium sour cracking 14.78 8.98 10.79 7.65 8.92 12.90 13.59 14.50 14.30 16.63 9.93 9.65 9.87 Heavy sour coking 21.20 12.94 13.13 10.30 11.68 14.48 15.97 16.52 15.57 18.75 13.67 14.88 16.20 US Midwest Light sweet cracking 16.81 13.67 13.86 10.02 15.25 17.25 12.85 17.10 15.03 16.81 6.85 7.43 11.48 Heavy sour coking 22.24 17.02 15.50 10.70 16.73 18.86 15.62 18.95 16.97 19.30 10.70 13.25 17.23 Singapore Light sweet cracking 5.40 2.59 4.61 2.72 3.58 4.91 7.17 5.47 6.97 9.38 5.23 2.87 2.73 Light sweet cracking + Petchem 6.89 3.23 5.37 3.42 4.28 5.87 7.86 6.35 7.79 9.93 5.93 3.37 2.41 Medium sour cracking 3.11 1.35 2.88 0.27 3.12 2.08 6.01 2.37 5.87 7.61 4.60 4.61 3.38 Medium sour cracking + Petchem 7.39 4.28 5.82 3.10 5.75 5.31 9.07 5.55 9.01 10.73 7.52 7.26 5.33 Source: IEA, Argus Media Group prices. Methodology notes are available at https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-March-2026#methodology Oil Market Report Tables Table 16: Refined Product Yields TableBased 16 On Total Input (%)1 REFINED PRODUCT YIELDS BASED ON TOTAL INPUT (% VOLUME) Dec-25 vs Previous Dec-25 vs Dec-25 vs 5 5 Year Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Dec-24 Month Previous Year Year Average Average OECD Americas Naphtha 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1 Motor gasoline 44.2 45.4 45.8 46.4 0.4 -0.6 -0.7 46.6 Jet/kerosene 9.5 9.7 9.4 9.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.8 8.5 Gasoil/diesel oil 28.3 29.0 28.5 29.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 28.9 Residual fuel oil 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.7 -0.1 0.4 0.2 2.9 Petroleum coke 3.6 3.6 3.7 4.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 4.2 Other products 11.5 10.9 10.6 10.6 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 11.0 OECD Europe Naphtha 9.6 9.6 9.2 8.5 -0.4 0.7 0.5 8.7 Motor gasoline 20.7 21.3 21.7 23.0 0.3 -1.3 0.2 21.5 Jet/kerosene 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.8 -0.1 0.1 1.4 7.4 Gasoil/diesel oil 39.7 39.7 40.5 39.8 0.8 0.7 -0.5 40.9 Residual fuel oil 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.4 0.1 -0.5 -0.5 8.4 Petroleum coke 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 1.5 Other products 13.7 13.7 13.4 13.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 14.2 OECD Asia Oceania Naphtha 17.0 16.9 16.5 15.8 -0.4 0.7 0.4 16.1 Motor gasoline 22.2 20.3 21.4 22.8 1.1 -1.3 -0.9 22.3 Jet/kerosene 14.1 15.0 15.6 14.8 0.5 0.7 1.4 14.2 Gasoil/diesel oil 29.5 29.1 28.7 29.1 -0.4 -0.5 -1.3 30.0 Residual fuel oil 8.3 9.3 8.2 8.4 -1.2 -0.2 0.1 8.1 Petroleum coke 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 Other products 10.7 10.8 10.6 10.9 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 11.5 OECD Total Naphtha 6.4 6.2 6.1 5.8 -0.1 0.4 0.0 6.1 Motor gasoline 33.1 34.0 34.3 35.1 0.3 -0.8 0.0 34.3 Jet/kerosene 10.1 10.3 10.2 10.2 -0.1 0.1 1.1 9.2 Gasoil/diesel oil 32.1 32.3 32.3 32.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 32.9 Residual fuel oil 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 5.6 Petroleum coke 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 2.7 Other products 12.1 11.7 11.4 11.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.7 12.1 1 Due to processing gains and losses, yields in % will not always add up to 100% Oil Market Report Tables Table 17: World Biofuels Production Table 17 WORLD BIOFUELS PRODUCTION (thousand barrels per day) 2024 2025 2026 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 Dec 25 Jan 26 Feb 26 ETHANOL OECD Americas 1086 1107 1115 1076 1101 1146 1158 1115 1115 United States 1055 1076 1077 1045 1070 1115 1127 1077 1077 Other 31 31 38 31 31 31 31 38 38 OECD Europe 101 106 116 104 119 108 108 116 116 France 20 21 26 22 25 19 20 26 26 Germany 14 14 15 10 16 18 19 15 15 Spain 11 11 15 12 12 11 11 15 15 United Kingdom 9 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 Other 47 55 55 56 62 55 53 55 55 OECD Asia Oceania 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 Australia 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Other 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 Total OECD Ethanol 1191 1217 1236 1184 1224 1258 1271 1236 1236 Total Non-OECD Ethanol 919 938 985 996 1297 934 666 585 539 Brazil 640 625 655 683 984 621 353 256 209 China 1 146 155 155 155 155 155 Argentina 1 23 23 23 23 23 23 Other 111 136 152 136 136 136 314 330 330 TOTAL ETHANOL 2111 2156 2221 2180 2521 2192 1937 1821 1775 BIODIESEL OECD Americas 334 284 328 288 298 297 304 328 328 United States 316 268 297 272 282 281 288 297 297 Other 18 16 32 16 16 16 16 32 32 OECD Europe 283 287 293 290 284 287 290 293 293 France 31 31 31 32 29 37 39 31 31 Germany 72 72 64 70 69 73 73 64 64 Italy 25 25 25 24 28 23 24 25 25 Spain 31 32 34 33 32 31 34 34 34 Other 125 126 139 130 126 124 120 139 139 OECD Asia Oceania 15 15 15 18 21 10 9 15 15 Korea 15 15 14 18 21 10 9 14 14 Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total OECD Biodiesel 632 586 636 597 603 595 604 636 636 Total Non-OECD Biodiesel 569 616 672 616 616 616 616 672 672 Brazil 156 170 192 164 182 180 172 144 196 Argentina 1 40 40 40 40 40 40 Other 1 373 407 440 412 394 396 TOTAL BIODIESEL 1201 1201 1308 1212 1219 1211 1220 1308 1308 GLOBAL BIOFUELS 3311 3357 3529 3393 3740 3403 3157 3129 3083 1 monthly data not available. Oil Market Report Tables Table 18: Russian Oil Exports and Revenues Table 18 RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS AND REVENUES (exports in million barrels per day and revenues in $bn) Latin America Revenue $bn Middle East OECD Asia Unknown Products Türkiye UK+US Export Africa Crude China Other Total India EU 2023 0.6 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.0 7.9 4.9 3.0 188.5 2024 0.4 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.0 7.5 4.8 2.7 192.3 2025 0.3 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.1 7.3 4.8 2.6 158.1 Jan 2025 0.4 0.0 0.9 2.1 1.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.1 0.1 7.3 4.5 2.8 15.6 Feb 2025 0.4 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.2 0.1 7.4 4.7 2.7 13.5 Mar 2025 0.3 0.0 0.7 2.2 2.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.1 7.4 4.8 2.6 14.3 Apr 2025 0.3 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.1 7.5 4.7 2.8 12.9 May 2025 0.3 0.0 0.9 2.2 2.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.1 7.4 4.7 2.7 12.6 Jun 2025 0.3 0.0 0.9 2.1 1.8 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.1 7.2 4.7 2.6 13.3 Jul 2025 0.3 0.0 0.9 2.2 1.9 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.1 7.4 4.8 2.6 14.5 Aug 2025 0.3 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.6 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.2 7.3 4.7 2.5 13.5 Sep 2025 0.2 0.0 0.8 2.6 1.8 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.2 7.5 5.1 2.3 13.3 Oct 2025 0.2 0.0 0.8 2.5 2.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.3 7.3 5.0 2.3 12.8 Nov 2025 0.2 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.1 0.2 6.9 4.7 2.3 11.0 Dec 2025 0.3 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.3 7.6 5.0 2.6 10.9 Jan 2026 0.2 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 1.2 0.9 7.5 4.6 2.9 11.0 Feb 2026 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.5 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.9 1.1 6.6 4.2 2.4 9.5 M-o-M chg -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -0.9 -0.4 -0.4 -1.5 Y-o-Y chg -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 -1.2 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 1.0 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -4.0 Note: Data in this table were derived by granular analysis and estimates of country of origin data in cases where shipments transit via third countries. They may differ from customs information due to calculation methodology and estimates updates. Sources: IEA analysis of data from Argus Media Group and Kpler . Oil Market Report Tables Table 18a Russian Crude FOB Weighted Average Export Prices ($/bbl) Table 18a: Russian Crude FOB Weighted Average ExportDiscounts Prices ($/bbl) to N.Sea Dated Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Dec - Jan Jan - Feb Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 North Sea Dated 62.64 66.73 71.09 4.09 4.36 Dubai M1 61.99 62.07 68.40 0.08 6.33 -0.65 -4.66 -2.69 Avg price based on total revenues 41.77 43.74 47.72 1.97 3.98 -20.88 -22.99 -23.37 Urals FOB Primorsk 37.59 40.06 42.81 2.47 2.75 -25.06 -26.67 -28.28 Urals FOB Novorossiysk 37.47 39.68 42.83 2.21 3.15 -25.17 -27.05 -28.26 ESPO FOB Kozmino 48.25 48.55 54.09 0.29 5.54 -14.39 -18.18 -17.00 Discounts to Dubai M1 ESPO FOB Kozmino -13.74 -13.53 -14.31 Urals DAP West Coast India -6.64 -4.68 -9.31 Notes: Russia Weighted Average for Urals from Baltic and Black Sea, Siberian Light and Espo. Price cap = $44.10/bbl. Sources: Argus Media Group, Kpler. Oil Market Report Tables Table 18b: Reference prices for Russian FOB Export Prices ($/bbl) Table 18b Russian FOB Product Export Prices ($/bbl) Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Dec - Jan Jan - Feb Gasoline 74.21 74.87 74.63 0.66 -0.23 Diesel 69.80 71.49 76.40 1.69 4.91 Gasoil 61.45 65.12 71.01 3.68 5.89 VGO 47.51 50.07 52.89 2.56 2.82 Naphtha 38.75 38.98 35.32 0.23 -3.66 Fuel 29.33 28.81 31.56 -0.53 2.75 Sources: Argus Media Group , Kpler . Note: Weighted avg prices of Baltic and Black Sea ports Product Price Caps: Premium = $100/bbl, Discounted = $45/bbl Source: IEA 2026. All Rights Reserved Without prejudice to the Terms of Use for Non-CC Material on the IEA website at https://www.iea.org/terms/terms-of-use-for-non-cc-material (the Terms), which also apply to this Oil Market Report (OMR) and its related publications, the Executive Director and the Secretariat of the IEA are responsible for the publication of the OMR. 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