---
source: The Conference Board
url: https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/US%20LEI%20PRESS%20RELEASE-APR%202026.pdf
document_type: pdf
date_retrieved: 2026-04-30
period: February 2026
parent_publication: US Leading Economic Index (LEI) Press Release — April 2026
indicators_covered: [Leading Economic Index (LEI) MoM, LEI level, six-month growth rate, component contributions]
title: The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Declined in March After Increasing in February
---

# US Leading Economic Index (LEI) — February 2026

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US **increased by 0.3% in February 2026** to 97.9 (2016=100), up from 97.6 in January. The LEI had previously declined for five consecutive months through December 2025.

> “After rising in February, the US LEI pulled back sharply in March, as building permits declined and consumer expectations and stock prices weakened,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The LEI continues to signal a slowdown in the economy over the coming months, as higher oil prices and supply chain tensions will likely place additional upward pressure on inflation and further reduce consumers’ purchasing power. The labor market, while currently stable, may soften with hiring slowing and unemployment edging higher. Growth will likely remain modest, as weaker consumer spending offsets some strength in business investment and defense-related activity. The Conference Board revised its US GDP growth forecast to well below 2%, down to 1.6% y/y for 2026.”

## Key Numbers

| Indicator | February 2026 | January 2026 | Change (MoM) |
|-----------|---------------|--------------|--------------|
| LEI Level | 97.9 | 97.6 | **+0.3%** |
| CEI Level | 115.2 | 115.2 | 0.0% |
| LAG Level | 120.0 | 119.8 | +0.2% |

- **Six-month growth (LEI, Sep 2025 – Mar 2026):** −1.0% (annualized −1.9%), down from −2.1% in the prior six-month period
- **LEI Diffusion index (Feb):** 70.0% of components positive
- **Next release scheduled:** Friday, May 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET

## Context

The February increase marked the first rise in the LEI after five consecutive monthly declines. The positive contribution was driven primarily by:
- Manufacturers' new orders (non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft): +0.4%
- Stock prices (S&P 500 Index): +1.2%

However, building permits, consumer expectations, and ISM® new orders contributed negatively. The March data (released simultaneously) showed a 0.6% decline, more than reversing February's gain.

The LEI is a composite of ten leading indicators designed to anticipate turning points in the business cycle by approximately seven months.