---
source: European Central Bank
url: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/sma/shared/pdf/ecb.smar260504_april.en.pdf
document_type: pdf
date_retrieved: 2026-05-04T08:17:20Z
period: April 2026
parent_publication: ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) – Aggregate Results
indicators_covered: [ECB interest rate expectations, market rates, macroeconomic forecasts]
---

# ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) – April 2026

ECB-PUBLIC

The ECB Survey of
Monetary Analysts
Aggregated Results

April 2026

ECB-PUBLIC

Contents
1

Key ECB interest rates, market rates and market conditions

2

2

Asset purchases and reinvestment

7

3

Refinancing operations

9

4

Macroeconomic outlook

11

Summary Report
This report summarises the aggregated results of the Survey of Monetary Analysts
(SMA) of April 2026. The survey period was from 13 to 15 April 2026 and 74
respondents participated.
For questions that received responses from fewer than six respondents no
aggregate statistics are reported.
Throughout the document, the cross-sectional distribution is defined as the
distribution of the modal answers, and the average probability distribution is defined
as the average of the probabilities assigned by respondents to different ranges of the
measure in question.
This report uses abbreviations for key monetary policy parameters. For additional
specific terminology please refer to the ECB glossary.
The survey questionnaire and more information is available at:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/sma/html/index.en.html

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), April 2026, Aggregate Results

ECB-PUBLIC

1

Key ECB interest rates, market rates
and market conditions

1.1

In the first part of the table, please indicate your interest
rate expectations for the reserve maintenance period
following the Governing Council meeting. In the second
part, please indicate the expected value at the end of the
quarter.
Expectations for the DFR
(percentages per annum)
25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

Apr-2026

2.00

2.00

2.00

74

Jun-2026

2.00

2.25

2.25

74

Jul-2026

2.00

2.25

2.25

74

Sep-2026

2.25

2.50

2.50

74

Oct-2026

2.25

2.50

2.50

73

Dec-2026

2.10

2.50

2.50

73

Feb-2027

2.10

2.50

2.50

73

Mar-2027

2.00

2.50

2.50

72

2027Q2

2.00

2.25

2.50

72

2027Q3

2.00

2.25

2.50

72

2027Q4

2.00

2.25

2.50

72

2028Q1

2.00

2.25

2.50

69

2028Q2

2.00

2.25

2.50

69

2028Q3

2.00

2.25

2.50

69

2028Q4

2.00

2.25

2.50

69

2029Q1

2.00

2.25

2.50

65

2029Q2

2.00

2.25

2.50

65

2029Q3

2.00

2.25

2.50

65

2029Q4

2.00

2.25

2.50

65

long run

2.00

2.00

2.25

70

Note: Cross-sectional distribution.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.A.I.U2._Z.DFR. Replace "MEDIAN" with "P25” or "P75" to obtain the 25th and 75th percentile,
respectively. Choose "GC", "Q" or "A" for Governing Council, quarterly or annual frequency, respectively.

Expectations for the MRO
(percentages per annum)
25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

2.15

2.15

2.15

74

Jun-2026

2.15

2.40

2.40

74

Jul-2026

2.15

2.40

2.40

74

Apr-2026

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), April 2026, Aggregate Results

ECB-PUBLIC

25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

Sep-2026

2.40

2.65

2.65

74

Oct-2026

2.40

2.65

2.65

73

Dec-2026

2.25

2.65

2.65

73

Feb-2027

2.25

2.65

2.65

73

Mar-2027

2.15

2.65

2.65

72

2027Q2

2.15

2.40

2.65

72

2027Q3

2.15

2.40

2.65

72

2027Q4

2.15

2.40

2.65

72

2028Q1

2.15

2.40

2.65

69

2028Q2

2.15

2.40

2.65

69

2028Q3

2.15

2.40

2.65

69

2028Q4

2.15

2.40

2.65

69

2029Q1

2.15

2.40

2.65

65

2029Q2

2.15

2.40

2.65

65

2029Q3

2.15

2.40

2.65

65

2029Q4

2.15

2.40

2.65

65

long run

2.15

2.15

2.40

70

Note: Cross-sectional distribution.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.A.I.U2._Z.MRO. Replace "MEDIAN" with "P25” or "P75" to obtain the 25th and 75th percentile,
respectively. Choose "GC", "Q" or "A" for Governing Council, quarterly or annual frequency, respectively.

Expectations for the MLF
(percentages per annum)
25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

Apr-2026

2.40

2.40

2.40

74

Jun-2026

2.40

2.65

2.65

74

Jul-2026

2.40

2.65

2.65

74

Sep-2026

2.65

2.83

2.90

74

Oct-2026

2.65

2.90

2.90

73

Dec-2026

2.50

2.90

2.90

73

Feb-2027

2.50

2.90

2.90

73

Mar-2027

2.40

2.83

2.90

72

2027Q2

2.40

2.65

2.90

72

2027Q3

2.40

2.65

2.90

72

2027Q4

2.40

2.65

2.90

72

2028Q1

2.40

2.65

2.90

69

2028Q2

2.40

2.65

2.90

69

2028Q3

2.40

2.65

2.90

69

2028Q4

2.40

2.65

2.90

69

2029Q1

2.40

2.65

2.90

65

2029Q2

2.40

2.65

2.90

65

2029Q3

2.40

2.65

2.90

65

2029Q4

2.40

2.65

2.90

65

long run

2.40

2.40

2.65

70

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), April 2026, Aggregate Results

ECB-PUBLIC

Note: Cross-sectional distribution.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.A.I.U2._Z.MLF. Replace "MEDIAN" with "P25” or "P75" to obtain the 25th and 75th percentile,
respectively. Choose "GC", "Q" or "A" for Governing Council, quarterly or annual frequency, respectively.

Expectations for the €STR
(percentages per annum)
25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

1.93

1.93

1.94

72

Jun-2026

1.94

2.18

2.18

72

Jul-2026

1.95

2.18

2.23

72

Sep-2026

1.99

2.27

2.43

72

Oct-2026

2.02

2.38

2.43

71

Dec-2026

2.02

2.42

2.44

71

Feb-2027

2.03

2.42

2.44

71

Mar-2027

2.03

2.34

2.45

70

2027Q2

2.05

2.21

2.45

70

2027Q3

2.00

2.19

2.43

70

2027Q4

1.97

2.20

2.43

70

2028Q1

1.97

2.19

2.43

67

2028Q2

1.98

2.18

2.44

67

2028Q3

1.99

2.19

2.43

67

2028Q4

1.99

2.20

2.43

67

2029Q1

1.97

2.20

2.44

64

2029Q2

1.97

2.20

2.43

64

2029Q3

1.97

2.20

2.43

64

2029Q4

1.97

2.20

2.43

64

long run

1.95

2.15

2.29

68

Apr-2026

Note: Cross-sectional distribution.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.A.I.U2._Z.ESTR. Replace "MEDIAN" with "P25" or "P75" to obtain the 25th and 75th percentile,
respectively. Choose "GC", "Q" or "A" for Governing Council, quarterly or annual frequency, respectively.

Expectations for the 3-month Euribor
(percentages per annum)
25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

Apr-2026

2.03

2.14

2.24

70

Jun-2026

2.17

2.28

2.39

70

Jul-2026

2.19

2.31

2.47

70

Sep-2026

2.21

2.44

2.55

70

Oct-2026

2.23

2.45

2.56

69

Dec-2026

2.20

2.47

2.56

69

Feb-2027

2.23

2.45

2.56

69

Mar-2027

2.22

2.44

2.55

68

2027Q2

2.20

2.32

2.55

68

2027Q3

2.10

2.30

2.55

68

2027Q4

2.09

2.30

2.54

68

2028Q1

2.07

2.30

2.53

65

2028Q2

2.09

2.30

2.53

65

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), April 2026, Aggregate Results

ECB-PUBLIC

25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

2028Q3

2.09

2.30

2.53

65

2028Q4

2.10

2.30

2.50

65

2029Q1

2.07

2.30

2.55

62

2029Q2

2.09

2.30

2.55

62

2029Q3

2.09

2.30

2.53

62

2029Q4

2.09

2.30

2.55

62

long run

2.05

2.23

2.44

66

Note: Cross-sectional distribution.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.A.I.U2._Z.EURIBOR_3M. Replace "MEDIAN" with "P25" or "P75" to obtain the 25th and 75th
percentile, respectively. Choose "GC", "Q" or "A" for Governing Council, quarterly or annual frequency, respectively.

1.2

Please indicate the percentage probabilities that you
attach to the following possible changes in the DFR at
the next two Governing Council meetings.
Expected size of the first DFR change
(percentages)

Average probability

<-75bps

-75bps

-50bps

-25bps

-10bps

0bps

10bps

25bps

50bps

75bps

>75bps

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.0

74.9

0.2

24.4

0.2

0.0

0.0

Note: Average percentage probability.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEAN._Z.PR.U2.BIN.DFR_SIZE_DIST_FIRST. "BIN" is a placeholder to be replaced with the centre of each
bin [-100,-75,-50,-25,-10,0,10,25,50,75,100].
Number of responses: 73.

Expected size of the second DFR change
(percentages)

Average probability

<-75bps

-75bps

-50bps

-25bps

-10bps

0bps

10bps

25bps

50bps

75bps

>75bps

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.0

39.8

0.3

58.5

1.1

0.0

0.0

Note: Average percentage probability.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEAN._Z.PR.U2.BIN.DFR_SIZE_DIST_SEC. "BIN" is a placeholder to be replaced with the centre of each
bin [-100,-75,-50,-25,-10,0,10,25,50,75,100].
Number of responses: 73.

1.3

Please indicate your expectations for the swap rate or
bond yield of the following financial instruments at the
end of the stated dates.
Expectations for the 10-year OIS (based on €STR)
(percentages per annum)

12 months ahead

25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

2.80

2.85

2.97

68

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), April 2026, Aggregate Results

ECB-PUBLIC

24 months ahead

25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

2.80

2.90

3.05

64

Note: Cross-sectional distribution.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.M.I.U2._Z.OIS_10Y. Replace "MEDIAN" with "P25” or "P75" to obtain the 25th and 75th percentile,
respectively.

Expectations for the German 10-year government bond
(percentages per annum)
25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

12 months ahead

2.90

24 months ahead

2.90

3.00

3.11

72

3.05

3.24

67

Note: Cross-sectional distribution.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.M.I.DE._Z.GERMAN_10Y. Replace "MEDIAN" with "P25” or "P75" to obtain the 25th and 75th
percentile, respectively.

Expectations for the French 10-year government bond
(percentages per annum)
25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

12 months ahead

3.65

3.80

3.90

68

24 months ahead

3.64

3.82

4.00

64

Note: Cross-sectional distribution.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.M.I.FR._Z.FRENCH_10Y. Replace "MEDIAN" with "P25” or "P75" to obtain the 25th and 75th
percentile, respectively.

Expectations for the Italian 10-year government bond
(percentages per annum)
25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

12 months ahead

3.70

3.78

3.90

70

24 months ahead

3.70

3.82

4.09

66

Note: Cross-sectional distribution.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.M.I.IT._Z.ITALIAN_10Y. Replace "MEDIAN" with "P25” or "P75" to obtain the 25th and 75th
percentile, respectively.

Expectations for the Spanish 10-year government bond
(percentages per annum)
25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

12 months ahead

3.40

3.50

3.65

69

24 months ahead

3.40

3.60

3.78

65

Note: Cross-sectional distribution.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.M.I.ES._Z.SPANISH_10Y. Replace "MEDIAN" with "P25” or "P75" to obtain the 25th and 75th
percentile, respectively.

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), April 2026, Aggregate Results

ECB-PUBLIC

2

Asset purchases and reinvestment

2.1

Please provide your expectations for the Eurosystem
stock of bonds under the APP and the PEPP at the end
of the stated quarters and years.
Expectations for the Eurosystem stock of bonds under the APP
(EUR billion)
25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

2026Q2

2348

2348

2353

72

2026Q3

2277

2287

2288

72

2026Q4

2201

2216

2217

72

2027Q1

2121

2145

2146

72

2027Q2

2043

2056

2057

72

2027Q3

1966

1987

1988

71

2027Q4

1889

1923

1923

71

2028Q1

1806

1845

1858

70

2028Q2

1735

1769

1796

70

2028Q3

1660

1700

1732

70

2028Q4

1581

1629

1671

70

2029

1300

1394

1465

65

2030

1015

1197

1288

65

2031

751

1014

1152

65

2032

475

886

1097

64

2033

233

761

987

64

2034

131

659

878

64

Note: Cross-sectional distribution.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.Q.EUR.U2._Z.EUROSYSTEM_APP_HOLDINGS. Replace “MEDIAN” with “P25” or “P75” to obtain
the 25th and 75th percentile, respectively. Replace “Q” with “A” to obtain annual frequency.

Expectations for the Eurosystem stock of bonds under the PEPP
(EUR billion)
25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

2026Q2

1394

1395

1398

72

2026Q3

1352

1353

1356

72

2026Q4

1311

1320

1320

72

2027Q1

1266

1282

1289

72

2027Q2

1221

1242

1246

72

2027Q3

1175

1198

1210

71

2027Q4

1130

1166

1172

71

2028Q1

1076

1125

1134

70

2028Q2

1036

1083

1095

70

2028Q3

991

1043

1056

70

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), April 2026, Aggregate Results

ECB-PUBLIC

25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

2028Q4

947

999

1019

70

2029

771

842

880

65

2030

603

692

753

65

2031

450

549

650

65

2032

284

400

564

64

2033

117

289

489

64

2034

11

204

409

64

Note: Cross-sectional distribution.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.Q.EUR.U2._Z.EUROSYSTEM_PEPP_HOLDINGS. Replace “MEDIAN” with “P25” or “P75” to
obtain the 25th and 75th percentile, respectively. Replace “Q” with “A” to obtain annual frequency.

2.2

Please indicate how likely you think it is that the TPI will
be first activated within the time periods indicated below.
Average probability distribution of TPI activation expectations
(percentages)

Average probability

0 to 3 months

4 to 6 months

>6 months

Never

5.8

8.6

30.6

54.9

Note: Cross-sectional distribution.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEAN._Z.PR.U2.BIN.TPI_ACTIVATION_DIST. "BIN" is a placeholder to be replaced with the centre of each
bin ["NEXT_3M","NEXT_4M_TO_6M","AFTER_6M","NEVER"].
Number of responses: 72.

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), April 2026, Aggregate Results

ECB-PUBLIC

3

Refinancing operations

3.1

Please provide your expectations for the outstanding
amounts of refinancing operations distinguishing between
MRO and LTROs.
Expected outstanding amount under MRO
(EUR billion)
25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

12

15

15

59

2026Q3

15

16

20

59

2026Q4

15

20

29

59

2027Q1

20

25

39

59

2027Q2

20

30

48

59

2027Q3

20

31

50

59

2027Q4

20

40

64

59

2028Q1

20

40

59

57

2028Q2

21

42

60

57

2028Q3

25

45

75

57

2028Q4

25

50

90

57

2029Q1

28

50

100

53

2029Q2

28

50

100

53

2029Q3

30

50

100

53

2029Q4

30

50

100

53

2026Q2

Note: Cross-sectional distribution.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.Q.EUR.U2._Z.MRO_OUTSTANDING. Replace "MEDIAN" with "P25" or "P75" to obtain the 25th
and 75th percentile, respectively.

Expected outstanding amount under LTRO
(EUR billion)
25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

12

15

20

58

2026Q3

12

15

25

59

2026Q4

15

20

31

59

2027Q1

20

30

43

59

2027Q2

25

40

50

59

2027Q3

30

45

63

59

2027Q4

35

50

85

59

2028Q1

40

50

80

57

2028Q2

40

55

95

57

2028Q3

45

60

100

57

2028Q4

50

60

115

57

2029Q1

50

65

120

53

2026Q2

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), April 2026, Aggregate Results

ECB-PUBLIC

25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

2029Q2

50

2029Q3

50

70

120

53

70

123

53

2029Q4

50

70

140

53

Note: Cross-sectional distribution.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.Q.EUR.U2._Z.LTRO_OUTSTANDING. Replace "MEDIAN" with "P25" or "P75" to obtain the 25th
and 75th percentile, respectively.

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), April 2026, Aggregate Results

ECB-PUBLIC

4

Macroeconomic outlook

4.1

Please provide your forecasts for the euro area real GDP
growth, unemployment rate, HICP inflation and HICP
inflation excluding food and energy for the following
quarters.
Expectations for real GDP growth
(percentage change)
25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

2026Q1

0.2

0.2

0.3

73

2026Q2

0.1

0.1

0.2

73

2026Q3

0.1

0.2

0.3

73

2026Q4

0.2

0.3

0.4

73

2027Q1

0.3

0.3

0.4

73

2027Q2

0.3

0.3

0.4

73

2027Q3

0.3

0.4

0.4

73

2027Q4

0.3

0.3

0.4

73

2028Q1

0.3

0.3

0.4

66

2028Q2

0.3

0.3

0.3

66

2028Q3

0.3

0.3

0.3

66

2028Q4

0.3

0.3

0.3

66

2029Q1

0.3

0.3

0.3

62

2029Q2

0.3

0.3

0.3

62

2029Q3

0.3

0.3

0.3

62

2029Q4

0.3

0.3

0.3

62

long run

1.1

1.2

1.3

70

Note: Cross-sectional distribution. Quarter-on-quarter change, calendar and seasonally adjusted but not annualised for quarterly
values; and year-on-year for long run values.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.Q.Q.U2._Z.YER (quarterly data) and SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.A.Y.U2._Z.YER (long run). In addition,
select in the date_descr column the value “long run”. Replace “MEDIAN” with “P25” or “P75” to obtain the 25th and 75th percentile,
respectively.

Expectations for unemployment rate
(percentage rate)

2026Q1

25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

6.2

6.2

6.3

71

2026Q2

6.2

6.3

6.4

71

2026Q3

6.3

6.3

6.4

71

2026Q4

6.2

6.4

6.5

71

2027Q1

6.2

6.3

6.4

71

2027Q2

6.2

6.3

6.4

71

2027Q3

6.1

6.3

6.4

71

2027Q4

6.1

6.2

6.4

71

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), April 2026, Aggregate Results

ECB-PUBLIC

25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

2028Q1

6.1

6.2

6.3

65

2028Q2

6.1

6.2

6.3

65

2028Q3

6.0

6.2

6.3

65

2028Q4

6.0

6.2

6.3

65

2029Q1

6.0

6.2

6.3

61

2029Q2

6.0

6.2

6.3

61

2029Q3

6.0

6.2

6.3

61

2029Q4

6.0

6.2

6.3

61

long run

6.0

6.2

6.3

68

Note: Cross-sectional distribution. Quarterly average and seasonally adjusted.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.Q.PC.U2._Z.URX (quarterly data) and SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.A.PC.U2._Z.URX (long run). In
addition, select in the date_descr column the value “long run”. Replace “MEDIAN” with “P25” or “P75” to obtain the 25th and 75th
percentile, respectively.

Median expected HICP inflation rates
(percentage change)
25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

2026Q2

2.9

3.0

3.2

72

2026Q3

2.8

3.0

3.1

72

2026Q4

2.8

3.0

3.2

72

2027Q1

2.4

2.7

3.0

72

2027Q2

1.8

2.0

2.2

72

2027Q3

1.8

2.0

2.1

72

2027Q4

1.9

2.0

2.1

72

2028Q1

1.9

2.0

2.1

67

2028Q2

1.9

2.0

2.1

67

2028Q3

1.9

2.0

2.1

67

2028Q4

2.0

2.0

2.1

67

2029Q1

2.0

2.0

2.1

62

2029Q2

2.0

2.0

2.1

62

2029Q3

2.0

2.0

2.1

62

2029Q4

2.0

2.0

2.1

62

long run

2.0

2.0

2.0

70

Note: Cross-sectional distribution. Year-on-year change.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.Q.Y.U2._Z.HIC (quarterly data) and SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.A.Y.U2._Z.HIC (long run). In addition,
select in the date_descr column the value “long run”. Replace “MEDIAN” with “P25” or “P75” to obtain the 25th and 75th percentile,
respectively.

Median expected HICP excluding food and energy inflation rates
(percentage change)

2026Q2

25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

2.2

2.3

2.3

71

2026Q3

2.2

2.3

2.4

71

2026Q4

2.1

2.3

2.4

71

2027Q1

2.1

2.3

2.4

71

2027Q2

2.0

2.2

2.3

71

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), April 2026, Aggregate Results

ECB-PUBLIC

25th percentile

Median

75th percentile

Number of responses

2027Q3

2.0

2.2

2.3

71

2027Q4

2.0

2.1

2.3

71

2028Q1

2.0

2.1

2.2

66

2028Q2

2.0

2.1

2.2

66

2028Q3

2.0

2.0

2.1

66

2028Q4

2.0

2.0

2.1

66

2029Q1

2.0

2.0

2.1

62

2029Q2

2.0

2.0

2.1

62

2029Q3

2.0

2.0

2.0

62

2029Q4

2.0

2.0

2.0

62

long run

2.0

2.0

2.0

69

Note: Cross-sectional distribution. Year-on-year change.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.Q.Y.U2._Z.HEF (quarterly data) and SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.A.Y.U2._Z.HEF (long run). In addition,
select in the date_descr column the value “long run”. Replace “MEDIAN” with “P25” or “P75” to obtain the 25th and 75th percentile,
respectively.

4.2

How would you characterise the current level of euro
area real GDP relative to potential output?
This question is currently being piloted. The publication of results will be considered
following an assessment of the pilot phase.

When do you estimate that the output gap closed, or will close?
This question is currently being piloted. The publication of results will be considered
following an assessment of the pilot phase.

What is your estimate, in percentage points, of the euro area
output gap in the current quarter? (If not available, leave blank.)
This question is currently being piloted. The publication of results will be considered
following an assessment of the pilot phase.

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), April 2026, Aggregate Results

ECB-PUBLIC

4.3

Please indicate the percentage probability you attach to
average annual euro area HICP inflation being below or
above 2% in the following years.
(percentages)
Below 2%

Above 2%

Number of responses

10.0

90.0

73

2027

40.0

60.0

73

2028

50.0

50.0

70

2029

50.0

50.0

66

Date
2026

Note: Median probability.
Series key: SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.A.PR.U2.ABOVE_2.HIC_TARGET_DISTRIBUTION,
SMA.APR26.MEDIAN.A.PR.U2.BELOW_2.HIC_TARGET_DISTRIBUTION.

4.4

Please assign percentage probabilities to annual euro
area HICP inflation falling into the following intervals in
the long run.
Average percentage probability for the expected long-run HICP inflation level
(percentages)

Average
probability

<0.1

0.1 0.3%

0.4 0.6%

0.7 0.9%

1.0 1.2%

1.3 1.5%

1.6 1.8%

1.9 2.1%

2.2 2.4%

2.5 2.7%

2.8 3.0%

3.1 3.3%

3.4 3.6%

3.7 3.9%

≥4.0

0.4

0.4

0.8

1.4

3.1

6.4

15.3

39.0

19.4

7.8

3.4

1.2

0.6

0.4

0.4

Note: Average percentage probability.
SMA.APR26.MEAN._Z.PR.U2.BIN.HIC_LR_DISTRIBUTION. "BIN" is a placeholder to be replaced with the centre of each bin [-0.1,
0.2, 0.5, 0.8, 1.1, 1.4, 1.7, 2, 2.3, 2.6, 2.9, 3.2, 3.5, 3.8, 4.1].
Number of responses: 72.

4.5

How do you assess the risks surrounding your forecasts
for euro area growth and inflation?
Risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook
(percentages)
Date

Downside

Balanced

Upside

Number of responses

2026

90.5

8.1

1.4

74

2027

45.9

48.6

5.4

74

2028

5.9

86.8

7.4

68

2029

3.1

90.8

7.7

66

Note: Percentage of respondents. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Series key: SMA.APR26.PC.A._Z.U2.DOWNSIDE.YER_RISKS, Replace "DOWNSIDE" with "BALANCED" or "UPSIDE".

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), April 2026, Aggregate Results

ECB-PUBLIC

Risks surrounding the euro area inflation outlook
(percentages)
Downside

Balanced

Upside

Number of responses

2026

1.4

8.2

90.4

73

2027

11.0

31.5

57.5

73

2028

5.9

77.9

16.2

68

2029

3.0

84.8

12.1

66

Date

Note: Percentage of respondents. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Series key: SMA.APR26.PC.A._Z.U2.DOWNSIDE.HIC_RISKS, Replace "DOWNSIDE" with "BALANCED" or "UPSIDE".

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), April 2026, Aggregate Results

ECB-PUBLIC

© European Central Bank, 2026
Postal address
Telephone
Website

60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
+49 69 1344 0
www.ecb.europa.eu

Copyright for the entire content of this document is held by the ECB. No content may be copied, reproduced or reduced, except with the
ECB’s prior written consent. Any copies, reproductions or reductions to the writing shall be the property of the ECB. This document shall
only be used for the purpose of the Survey of Monetary Analysts and shall not be used or exploited for own benefit, or for the benefit of
any other person or party. For specific terminology please refer to the ECB glossary (available in English only).